Part 1 of 2
Trump's Wars Emptying Americans' Wallets. Voters Aren't Fooled /Robert Barnes
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive
Streamed live 4 hours ago
Transcript
Chapter 1: Trump's declining approval President Trump told the 2024 voters that he was going to end wars and lower prices. What they got instead was a whole slew of wars and a lot higher prices. Will the 2026 voters go back and vote for him again heading into the next election here in just three weeks or so? And what impact may they have one way or another on the wars we are actually
fighting or may fight in the very near future? We have constitutional lawyer Robert Barnes with us back here today. And uh Robert, I gotta ask, do the 26 voters, are they going to forget what the 24 voters lacked? Uh unfortunately for the president, the answer to that is going to be no. I mean, what we're looking at currently is sort of a blowout at a level that's really unparalleled in the modern
era. Uh in in terms of the record level of decline of the president's job approval, he's hitting levels that even George W. Bush hadn't hit in 2006. He's hitting levels that Bush didn't hit until 2008. uh he's hitting levels that Richard Nixon didn't hit until right on the eve of his impeachment. So uh you're seeing numbers that are very that you know Harry Truman didn't hit until the very end of his
second term towards 1952. So he's hitting those kind of job approval numbers and some of the most intense disapproval comes from people who were his original base. So the his anti-war vote or war disincinline vote from Midwest, rural Midwest, industrial Midwest, workingass North. Uh the massive loss of all the voters he added in 2024 amongst millennials, amongst zoomers, amongst African-Americans, amongst Hispanics, amongst Asians that were workingass voters. Uh the only voter
that's left with him is sort of a boomer evangelical who wasn't even originally a Trump voter. It's your voter who was skeptic who voted for Ted Cruz in the 2016 presidential primaries or or Dantis in the 2024 primaries. The so that the vote that stuck with him is a vote that's not even his originally. Uh it's the old Bush vote. It's the people that still approve of George W. 2 minutesBush. So
that that's literally, you know, your Fox News Boomer con who was always skeptical of Trump that now that he's become more like them and uh the and this and them less like him, original Trump, the uh that what he's left with is a diminishing disappearing base that is so shrinking that the Trump himself is now spending money in places like Arkansas Congressional District number two, which is a district he won by
about 20 points. Uh that's the kind of they're spending money in CT1 by 15 points or more. Uh and that tells you that even he knows he's in deep trouble. That's why he's out with his another ad telling people I I'll give you five grand if you if you if you'll vote for me. The because all the last promises worked out so well. Uh so he's in he's in deep deep trouble
politically. You know, Gary, put that headline back up there. This was an interesting statement because this is not just that 71% of the people were opposed to the Iran war. As much as it says they they believe he lacks a clear strategy. To me, that's a much higher threshold in a much worse situation for President Trump when just average voters think you don't even know what you're doing. I wonder if you
can explain a little bit about how we got there. Chapter 2: Foreign policy failures Yeah, that is what's happening. I mean now that voters used to have confidence. I mean it's very rare for Republicans in the modern era to have a very negative rating on to who you trust to make decisions on national security and but that is where they are with the president. They don't trust him on national security. They
don't trust him on foreign policy. They don't trust him on pretty much anything. Uh he still has a reservoir of goodwill on immigration where people prefer his approach than the most recent Democratic approach. But that's literally it. Uh it's the only issue that you know his base voters can cite as an example of why he's delivered. And so I mean it shows you kind of where the world is when you know
organizations like Turning Point founded by Charlie Kirk who had turned very anti-war uh is now represented by people like Benji Shapiro telling the Turning Point audiences at college campuses when somebody asked them, "Hey, you know, if we hit Iran's infrastructure, wouldn't they hit all the Gulf infrastructure?" and that caused major problems for the global economy. And Shapiro says, "Yeah, that would happen, but that's the price of war." So the price of
war is global economic catastrophe for the for the world. That that's a worthy price. And yet that's what the Turning Point representative uh is out there trying to tell young young conservatives and independents on campus. So it uh and I'm sorry, do how have they responded to that? Do are you very negatively? I mean the you have a constituency out there that you know for a while on ex you know Franco
was trending that you know once he's death to televis live televis executions. Uh so you got that wing of the young conservatives. Uh but even they're unsatisfied because what they want is not not uh what much of the rest of the country wants. The but for that group uh they're completely gone. uh the the millennial Zoomer vote that has been added since 2016 has disappeared from all of the polling data. Uh
it's disappearing in party identification and affiliation. It's disappearing in party registrations. It's disappearing uh in the intentions to even vote. And of those who do intend to vote, they just intend to pay him back uh by voting Democrat out of spite, not because they are aligned with a Democratic party that wants us to go to war with an actual nuclear power uh as opposed to the wannabe nuclear power that Trump is
currently trying to wage in war with the uh weapons power. But the that vote is so gone that there's not much. I mean, you saw with El Say in his debate in Michigan against uh surveillance state senator Mike Rogers the you know the and then you you saw in New Jersey where in New Jersey the Republicans saying go down. Yeah. More more fighting, more war. This is the way to go. Um
you know it's a George W. Bush ra speech that worked after 9/11 that has not worked since the disaster of that uh that Iraq war, that Master War. And so basically Trump is where Bush was at, but with one big difference. There was a group of silent generation and older boomers who are always on board with that version of McKismo, machi macho, you know, Rambo Republicanism. Even Rambo himself is not on
board with it. He says the military-industrial complex keeps dragging us into stupid wars. Sylvester Stallone. But that but the reality of that population group, they're pretty much almost all dead. So the the younger generations, the younger boomers, the Gen Xers, uh the but especially the uh millennials and the zoomers are totally off the war train. And that was why Trump got elected. He decided he could forget that thinking not pay a
consequence. Um and instead he's got to start lining up his lawyers for all the impeachments and investigations that are coming. now try to try to make sense out of this for our audience and for me frankly as to why Trump would go down this path because we've been having you on for a long time and you've been talking about this deteriorating uh support base going on for a while and yet Trump
then keeps on making these policies that increase the deterioration. I mean to the point now where he's saying yeah we might go to war against the Houthies. we might join Saudi Arabia right there. And you know, I'm still thinking about doing something maybe right after the the midterm elections here, signaling even to the voters that this is not going to end war. So voting for him is not a vote for or
his party is not a vote for ending the war here. Trump has to be aware of that. I know that you told me when we were at that conference in Tennessee earlier this summer uh that Rich Baris said he told him that this is where it was heading and yet Trump ignores it. How can that be? Why would he go down a path politically to his own harm? Chapter 3: Personality and
corruption You know, I think that'll be the big question is why the Trump betrayal of the second term in terms of the betrayal of his anti-war voter base and the people that put him in that presidential office once again in 2024 despite all the lawfare and political warfare against him after his second after his first term. I mean my own view based on information I I was up in Wall Street last
week talking to a bunch of hedge hedge fund boys and they were talking about how uh on you know without going into details as to who said what uh it was Chaum house rules but basically that the the on the street they're losing even confidence in he in not only in HEG's death in Trump but in uh Besset himself and Soros Scotty uh trained understandably drunken Miller and George Soros had a
lot of respect on Wall Street even if they didn't agree with some of his the Trump's policy predelictions. They thought that, you know, Scotty knew what he was doing. Increasingly, they didn't think he knew what he was doing. They think the whole administration doesn't know what they're doing. And it raises the questions, you know, well, why is somebody making politically suicidal decisions in the way that Trump has been doing? Well, I
mean, my own view based on, you know, what what some of those folks told me all the way back along with other Trump uh folks told me back in January 2025 was that Trump had undergone a personality shift and that, you know, there and when I described what that personality shift and totally different decision-making procedures were. Other people identified it to me as some form of frontal lobe dementia, early stage behavioral
dementia. So, not you know the kind of dementia that comes with uh losing cognition but and losing language but the kind of dementia that comes with sudden personality shifts and lack of a social filter. The kind of dementia that would have you saying, "I think I picked the Pope. I think I should pick the next Supreme Leader. I think I should have a 50-ft statue built to me in my presidential library
that has no books in it." The um that that I should build a new little arch for myself. uh the that I should go to and put drones on the top of it in snipers by the way. Yes, correct. That I should I I'll go to the United Nations and tell everybody maybe I'll murder the whole country. What do you think they I mean that's someone that's social. It's like you know
and we call it used to you know the gentle term was senior moment. Uh you know the oh they're having a senior moment. Well, Trump's been having one year long senior moment, and we're seeing the consequences, and it's not rational decisions because he's been told and warned repeatedly what would happen in the Iran war, what would happen if he uh politically, but also would happen directly in the war itself, not only
by Vice President Advance, but he was and by uh former counter director, counterterrorism director Joe Kent, but also by Tulsi Gabbard, which is now public. you know, we talked about it back then, but now that information is out there public for the world to see. Uh, Amarillis Fox, who was her deputy, is also now gone. Michael Anton's now gone. So, some of this is the people that used to warn him are
no longer present. Um, but Vance has continued to warn him all the way through. And the he was he he was getting a bounce back and Republicans were getting a bounce back in the summer after the memorandum of understanding. diesel cost started to come back down. Interest rates started to come back down and then he rugpulled it and he refuses to go back to it no matter how many I mean the
it's increasingly impossible to get back to it because of Trump's own decisions making him seem unreliable to the entire world. Um the you know friends of ours were over and met with uh Mr. Lavough and Russia and they don't have any confidence left in Trump. The And so I mean right now that looks like that diesel deal is Iranian diesel. Nothing better sums it up than Iranian diesel is going to go
through Russia to come to the United States. Uh as part of this deal uh while that isn't doesn't seem to actually being holding really on the ground in Ukraine anyway. Uh while the what are Republicans worried about? They're worried about that it's too soft on Russia. The so the and so a bunch of Democrats are but the uh it's he's just 12 minutesnot he doesn't he lives in his own bubble. He
doesn't want to hear what he doesn't want to hear and he he the positive thinking has become wishful thinking magical thinking. So it's on a routine basis he only assumes good things can happen and bad things can't happen. And the question is how much of reality gets through to him on a daily basis is often up in the air. And that's why you see him behave the way he's behaving. And you've
seen the other arrogance of people around him and being openly and overtly corrupt. Uh because they see the same sort of mindset as they become many Trumps. That's how you have the scandal of our ambassador to Greece, former wouldbe daughter-in-law, you know, pulling up. It's just one illustration of the bigger problem. Uh, you know, I I you mentioned that JD Vance is still given the voice of reason in there, which is
he's clearly not being listened to. I was going to ask you, and I actually I still will. Uh, are there any military voices that are given reason or or even saying you can't do this, but uh we have this I'm I'm going to show you here. This is from uh General Grinkowitz, who is a supreme allied commander in Europe. Uh he was asked here, we'll go with the the one on where's
the name of it here. uh the theory of victory in this he's asked do you have the capability to to take care of what's happening in the Middle East if things go bad in Russia and and if there's another war in the say Indoacific against someone can we handle all that and here's what he said does your theory assess a situation it Chapter 4: Military overextension in which we have a war
on two fronts not only here in the European theater but actually a potential other theater in the Asia- Pacific where the United States forces might be entangled in big actions. What happens then? Yeah, it absolutely does account for that and in fact it must and that's one of the reasons why we took so much time going through this. We we had a very useful uh from a a military observation uh standpoint
uh look at this when we had conflict ongoing in the Middle East at the same time as the conflict in Ukraine and it gave us real insight on what the stresses on our war fighting system would be and how we needed to adapt it. So some of the things in the theory of victory like depending on large amounts of affordable mass to pair with our high-end precision weapons are part of the
things that we've learned here that we are going to need to use kind of a high low mix of capabilities in order to achieve the things that we need to do. And he goes on to talk about a bunch of stuff but he says bottom line yep we can definitely handle that if we go Russia and Asia no problem. if he's given that kind of advice to President Trump or if anybody
else in the senior military, you know, general and flag officers are saying, "Yeah, we got plenty of ammunition because Trump has said that many times." And I worry that he may be listening to things like this. What do you think? Well, I think we assign all of our lunatics to Europe because like and then I'm always impressed all those medals. It's just medals for losing, you know, just one after the other
after the other after the other. See, and these are the people that are being promoted, which is mindboggling to me. But the uh it's we can't even win in Ukraine or in Iran. And we're going to win against even more directly kinetically against Russia and China. I mean, what a croc. We can't win against one or the other. We're supposed to win against two nuclear powers. Uh but you know, there's no
question there's a bit of Curtis Bonso lame in some of these sort of delusional theorist, you know, theorist. Yeah, it's a theory of winning the it's a reality of losing. Uh that that's what he should retitle his book or article on or strategy on. Uh there's no question there's a bunch of those cats running around. Uh the same kind of people that were in, you know, recommending and that Israel could take
on Lebanon and Gaza and the West Bank and Iran and maybe add Turkey in the mix all at the same time and Syria. Throw that in too. uh as as they're as they are getting badly overstretched uh and BB Netanyahu faces an exist existential election here in just a few weeks. The I think you you 16 minuteslook at all of this and the there's simply militarily we are not capable of doing
that at all. But how many people in the Pentagon have or give that intel and information to the president? That is an open question. Now from people I've you know people like Vice President Vance and others uh they have said otherwise but that was with his friend Army Secretary Driscoll as backup army secretary Driscoll now also gone his deputy also gone. Now KBY is a realist uh and he's the under secretary
of war and the advantage of the elections may be that heath uh resigns rather than faces impeachment in the uh in the upcoming January 2027 uh Democratic likely Democratic House Democratic Senate and that would put KBY uh in charge of the war department and Kobe you can you he was the co-author of the national security statement and national defense strategy that was not based on theory of winning but was based on
getting out of the Middle East having reproach monk with Russia and a containment but not a confrontation strategy with China and was much more oriented towards Latin America where the to the the Trump administration has had a lot of political success. Whatever people may think of the benefits of that policy-wise, Bolsinaro is likely to win in Brazil as well. And basically almost all of Central and Latin America will have moved right
under the Trump administration. Uh that may have some correlation with us a no longer having the kind of funding that used to have uh to help other uh groups like Lula, etc. in those countries. But the and and maybe that's a promising hope that honest information. Kane does tend to give him honest intel. Uh but Kane's tone is so soft and gentle in those convers you know he doesn't nobody wants to
be confrontational with Trump. Uh even Vance tries to immediate the tone of his communication toward Trump so that it doesn't trigger Trump's increasing lack of control rage. Uh but Hexath just wants to be cheered and cheered and cheered. He loves being team America road police right out of the South America movie. Uh you know America F. Yeah. I mean, that's that's where he came up with the idea. Hey, let's some let's
have a live televised shooting of a Muslim. Yeah. Someone who was a terrorist. No doubt. Did horrible things. No doubt. But something that we in the United States have never done. We've never live televised an execution. In fact, we when the Islamic terrorists do it, we describe it as horrific behavior. Barbaric. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. And now we want to celebrate in barbarism. We want to bring the last aspects of the bread
and circus. I mean, are we just going to add the, you know, is Trump going to say, you know what, I'm just going to create a huge gladiator complex here at the White House? You know, enough with the UFC. Let's see some people thrown the animals and see what happens. I mean, it that seems to be the mindset of some of these folks. So, uh, I do know that the regular military
career people that are on the front lines have consistently given him negative feedback about the realities of what is happening in the Iran war. uh not Admiral Cooper but others have but you have a lot of these people people like Admiral Coop Cooper believes that the Israel is why he is in the position he is the Israel lobby is in the position he is in that's not good for so many high-ranking
political members you either have the Atlanticists that are over in Europe that are on board with every wacky loony notion of taking on and destroying Russia and just pretending that Europe is the empire of the world. I mean, someone showed a map. It was like, well, which the question is, isn't which countries Britain and Europe have not have invaded? It's which ones have they not? It's like down to like eight or
nine or whatever it is. But, you know, that kind of mindset, that kind of mentality dominates that wing. And then you got the Israel lobby that dominates another wing. And those two are giving consistently bad advice. They've been consistently wrong now for really 30 plus ever since the end of the Cold War. and the instead of them being relegated, which is what Trump was elected to do, the they've been elevated uh
throughout all of this. And that's why you get Rap Boy cheerleading him on on Ukraine, and you get the Israel lobby cheering him on in with Iran. And he doesn't react the way his own instincts and his base wanted him to react, and he said he would react. And the consequences are going to show up on election day. And and just before election day, we have we have the potential to expand
into yet another war and that is against Ansar Allah in Yemen. Uh there we had one of our guests earlier today that suggested that I like your view on this. I don't know if this is something in your area of of knowledge or not, but that the reason why Saudi Arabia is in trouble right now in with Ansar Allah is because they restarted a war that had been in suspended animation since
2023 by attacking the airport at SA during the funeral for supreme leader Ali Kami. I think it was in August. And that was like the last straw that broke the camel's back. And that started this whole tit for tat back and forth. And now then the answer started action on the ground and in the air. So they're in a real big panic here trying to figure out. The claim has been made
by some of our guests on our show that the US is the one that prompted uh Saudi Arabia to to make that attack uh in the airport at SA and the purpose allegedly was to to gain leverage over Saudi Arabia so that they would be more compliant. What do you know of that? I do know that uh Trump did encourage NBS to make that attack, but my understanding was Trump was in
a moment of rage because he really was mad at all the popular the popularity of those funeral proceedings. Chapter 5: Escalation in the Middle East Uh the instead of looking at it saying, "Okay, maybe the my assessment of Iran is wrong." Uh, you know, I did a deep dive on a Substack that started writing at the Barnes brief where I went into Iranian public opinion was actually much more behind the government
than critical of the government and actually was more hardline than the actual government itself was and that that pattern had been emerging for a year before the attacks. the uh but you know Trump convinced himself uh with his that that the whole government couldn't wait to overthrow uh the leadership there and that the the population you want to overthrow the government and when he saw the opposite when he saw all those
people pouring into the streets and not only for the funeral of the Ayatollah and his four-year-old granddaughter uh but waving that red flag of revenge and the red banner of revenge um it rather than say oh man I should reassess He got angry. His response was like a toddler petulant anger and he wanted to lash out any way he could lash out. That's when he started playing games with the uh Omani
corridor later on. But even then he started a little little tit for tat there during the ceasefire period. Uh but he encouraged NBS, you know, you can't let those uh you know hoodie shove you. Look look at look at them. They're going over there and celebrating this. This is embarrassing. You should do something about this. And that's when he did it. So the people are are subsequently trying to put some sort
of uh intelle spin on it. There isn't with with what Trump's doing. Just there's just Trump seat of his pants mad Trump mad Trump toddler Trump mad Trump tape. You know there's like a version of like these all these memes with toddler Trump playing games with little things he's going to crush on the board. you know, three-year-old the my grandson was like three years old and he was like, "Watch, watch, watch,
watch, watch, papa." And he was just destroying cars just randomly. I was like, "Oh, this is Donald Trump except he has, you know, missiles and bombs." So the that's the reality of what happened. And then when NBS got caught, NBS was like, "Oh, you're going to help me out, right?" And Trump was like, "Oh, no. That is my fault." The Because everybody was there's all the military command is in agreement. We
already got wh we already got whipped by the hoodies. uh we have no interest to go on a two-f frontont conflict in the Middle East at this juncture uh that we're already overextended. So then when he says here's what he said two days ago in front of the White House. Have you he decided whether to join the Saudi strikes on the We may we're going to look at it. How soon? We
just found out about the recent attack. So we'll make a decision. We we move very quickly. So he's he said yeah we'll think about that. Uh but I mean is there any any risk that he may do it? Oh, there's always risk. Now, I mean this version of Trump is uh it's what would happen. There's always been problems theoretically and conceptually with the madman theory, which is that if you're perceived as
mad that that gives you a negotiating leverage. Trump has always been a big fan of this theory and idea. There's always been inherent sort of academic theoretical flaws with it because it can create unpredictability in ways that can be counterproductive. But what happens when you have a madman theory but the person using it is himself in fact mad then it goes completely haywire and the it's undermining and sabotaging a range of
policy objectives of the administration currently. Uh but because of it president is truly unpredictable at what he may order or request. meaning he has three different times talked about using nuclear weapons in Iran and has had push back from the entire cabinet on that thankfully. Uh but that gives you an idea of where his mindset is. So at any point I don't think though he wants to take any Trump's one of
those people he's you know destroying everything in his wake kind of like the Gatsby's and the Great Gatsby and then they expect everybody else to pick things up behind him and the that's how Trump is behaving that oh yeah I destroyed that so what you know it's like a Kimberly Gilfoil party at the great ambassador's office you know bring in one more car one more crate of champagne let's have a little
more fun on the government dime uh before the party ends and so I don't think he will go because he doesn't want to have any responsibility or accountability for it or be perceived as losing to the hoodies again. Uh but there's always a risk of it because he is truly unpredictable given how his emotions govern his decision-m not any kind of rationale or reasoning. Now, now folks who have been watching your
show or the the substacks you've been writing or or when you've been on our show and several others have been aware of this thing trending for a long time, but the a lot of it was shielded from the American public because especially like Fox News or or Newsmax and you know they they only put this positive spin on everything uh or just didn't talk about the bad stuff. But now then uh
according to some of the things we've had on your uh on your ex account here uh that's starting to penetrate to a lot of different folks. Let's take a look. Chapter 6: 2026 political fallout First of all, uh you say here that uh the GOP is losing the working class in mass. What does this poll tell you? So, what's happening is that they're losing there are two different groups that Trump added
to the 2016 and then the 2024 coalition, but they were incredibly class driven. So, workingclass whites in the industrial Midwest, in the rural Midwest, and in the workingclass north large, he added in 2016 that were previously Obama voters. But by the way, the number, you know, Jim Webb talked about this at the 1776 law center conference. Overwhelmingly, those voters came from count the the proportion of casualties in war and military conflict
had a direct correspondence to how much Trump improved in workingclass counties in the north between the Republican Romney margins of 2012 and the Trump margins of 2016. He then added to that Asian, Hispanic, African-American, millennial, and Zoomer workingclass voters in the 2024 election. Still, he did poorer in upper middle class areas than Romney did or even McCain did in large parts of the country. So, it was very much a class-driven coalition
uh that he was able to put together that actually created an edge in the electoral college that used to be a Democratic edge prior to Trump. Though, they're all gone. uh the the the the pro like for example you will see in upper middle class areas uh you you will not see a big shift between 2024 in 2026 margins uh for the Democrats the uh but as you go down the economic
scale is you will see an increase in the shift from Trump margins to Democratic margins for Senate seats, House seats, governorships, state legislative seats everywhere. You'll see it in turnout to some degree that a lot of these younger and even older working-class Trump supporters just are not going to vote. But of those that do vote, they are going to be disproportionately voting to punish Trump. And this is something Trump still hasn't
figured out. This is not a punish Republicans. This is a punish Trump message and this electorate because of how enraged they are uh at what he's done. And so there there's various predictions you can look at predictive. vis deep dive.
PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE
-
admin
- Site Admin
- Posts: 41616
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am
-
admin
- Site Admin
- Posts: 41616
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am
Re: PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE
Part 2 of 2
You know, I've been betting on elections since I was a kid. So the there's several that have been highly predictive in a midterm and that's what happens who's who's voting and who's not in different
primaries particularly because a lot of our states allow independents to pick a different ballot Republican or Democratic primary as they like the the how much what Gallup you look at independent voters who do they say they lean more towards Democrats or Republicans you can look at late voter registration in the buildup to the election who's flooding the polls who's who and which party is getting an edge there You can look at
how they're voting in we have so many early voting mechanisms now that over time are becoming more predictive because we have a better baseline whether it's mail-in voting or early voting in a wide range of jurisdictions and the trend in all of them is exactly the same which is Democrats are heading for a blowout victory of a size they have never won by in the modern era that you're talking about it
could get as high as Democrat plus 15. I mean, you know, it it was uh Democrats the biggest margin they've ever won by is eight points in the modern era since uh since 1994. And the they may double that margin. And wow, 30 minutesthat translates into 56 or more Democratic senators up to 60 Democratic Senate seats. That could translate into up to 60. Yes. Up to 60. There are there their there
are internal polling by Republicans show close races currently in South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, and not to mention uh and South Dakota. They're already in behind in Maine. They're behind in North Carolina, behind in Michigan, behind in Georgia, behind in Ohio, behind in Iowa, behind in Texas, behind in Kansas, behind in uh uh uh Texas, behind in Alaska. Uh so the so they're already behind in a bunch of states that are
going to give the Democrats the majority, but there there's there even tight races in places people don't like South Carolina. Turns out being a warhore uh is not a winning ticket. Even in South Carolina, South Carolina's voting electorate has been changing now for 20 years. Over half of the people who vote in South Carolina were not born in South Carolina or even born in the deep south. The uh so that different
people have been moving in there and it's not just military voters like it used to be. It's a working-class Catholics moving into Myrtle Beach area and places like that. You start to aggregate that vote and there's a generational shift from older boomers, silent generation to millennials and zoomers and the that is a massive anti-war voting shift and this comes from the the people keep forgetting in America political class keeps forgetting but
every war starting party has paid a price at the polls sooner or later. the going all the way World War I. Wilson got Democrats got hammered after World War I. Uh even at World War II, Democrats got hammered in 1946 after that war ended. It was the Korean War that took Truman down and put Eisenhower in the White House by massive margins. The the Vietnam War took out the Democrats of the
1960s. The even of the popular Iraq War led to George W. Bush a year later getting a record low level of support for an incumbent president of the United States. The the Iraq War II destroyed George W. Bush and the Republicans the first time around. The and so and this war is more unpopular than all of those and none of them had been elected on a committed an anti-war vote. All of
them promised. Roosevelt promised keep us out of World War II. Wood Wilson promised to keep us out of World War I. All of that. Uh Lyndon Bane Johnson said he'd be less wararmongering than Barry Goldwater. You know, you name it. but not as bad as what Trump spent a decade campaigning against these wars starting in South Carolina, a presidential primary he won right after he attacked Iraq War I and said George
W. Bush should have been impeached for it. So that's where the uh country is at. And so that they're going to lose the Senate. The only question is how bad they're going to lose the House. They could lose up to 255 House seats. That's how bad it could be. They may be Democrats may have the biggest house margin they've had since before 1994. What would that put the margin at in the
House? 255 House seats could go Democrat. Now, what does it also mean? It means Jeffre ain't going to be speaker unless he changes his tune on Israel. It means a much more aggressive, likely Israel skeptic is the speaker of the house. It means uh if if it's 55 or more in the Senate, Schumer probably gets tossed aside. The and they put somebody that's much more aggressive running the Senate, someone who's not
as differential to Israel in the Senate. You even have people like Senator Kelly saying the very first thing we're going to do is completely defund everything related to the Iran war. So the uh and of course the impeachments are just going to start rolling and rolling and rolling. They'll start with Heg's death. If he's dumb enough to still be there, he he's smart. He'll get out of dodge. And of course, Trump
will just throw him under the train as soon as he can, as as soon as it's useful for him to do so. Um, but that's why his political capital to do anything in Iran is going to shrink dramatically once those election results come in. And but there's still a risk because he is just not a rat. He's an emotional driven decision maker whose number one thing is not what would Jesus do,
it's what would Khan do. And when you think like that, you have a constant you're at risk in the White House. But the biggest risk is to not only his legacy, I think that if you get to 55, 56 or more Democratic senators, he faces a real risk of conviction and removal from the presidency in 2027. Well, yeah, I was going to say because if you get that many, you don't need
very many Republicans to to join in with that. And if there's that big of a swing in the population, uh, it'll be hard for all the Republicans to just protect him no matter what. Don't you think? Absolutely. And, you know, there isn't a Republican senator. The way I always put it is it's not a Republican senator that doesn't have a poster of Brutus at home Chapter 7: Impeachment and removal risks in
their closet that you know, as a super as a superhero. The And you But you add to two, they all hate Trump. Uh, three, now they have personal vendettas against Trump because they don't like what they what happened to Cornin. They don't like what happened to Tillis. They don't like what happened to uh the senator from Louisiana. Even though all the all of them were pricks and losers, but doesn't matter. People
like Marshall, people like Wicker. There's a bunch Well, Marshall might be gone, so they But John Curtis, well, immediately he's already floating this idea out there. The senator from Utah, the old Romney allies. So, there's a bunch of them that can't wait to stab Trump in the back. And then it's not just that the Democrats will have an, you know, to where they only need maybe a dozen votes or fewer Republican
votes to win. If it's that bad of a bloodbath, the biggest ever Senate blood bath in terms of the map, because right now, the reason why nobody thought Republicans could lose the Senate is because the Democrats have to win several seats that the that Trump won by 13 points or more in 2024 just two years ago. Shocking. Uh the so that's very rare to see that kind of switch occur. But they're
going to say, "Hey, the whole problem was Trump." They won't admit the war machine was the problem. The war so the war was the problem. They won't admit that either. They'll just say, "You know what? It was because we flirted with this guy who was not part of the respectable political class. Uh we we you know, this guy shoved his way into the club. We knew he never qualified for admission. We
need to publicly expel him, publicly purge him, and that will make all everything great for the Republican party." He did. So people forget it was Republicans who went to Nixon and told him that he would lose the impeachment vote if he didn't resign. So that's the that's where they're going to go. The mindset will be to blame him for it. And then we don't even get to what's going to be the
tipping factor is Democrats have built up massively deep files. These won't be the bogus impeachments of his first term where where you know bogus impeachment over January 6, bogus impeachment uh you know January 6. I mean, give you an idea where Trump's administration is, is they're busy framing a black autistic kid to cover up a crime committed against the Trump supporters, which was that the January 6 pipe bomber was was likely
a someone that is currently on Rat Boy CIA payroll and which would show that January 6 had an inside job component from the get-go and wasn't the insurrection that the media tried to pretend it was. But what is Trump doing? He's avoiding that being exposed, covering up from that being exposed by framing a black autistic kid, Brian Cole, using coercive confession techniques to do so uh in an uncountled four plus hour
interview, which any honest administration wouldn't get near. But the fact that he's doing it to cover for the deep state rather than expose the deep state, to cover for people committing crimes against him rather than to expose those who committed crimes against him, gives you an idea of the mindset and the mentality of this administration. And but the and it's for these impeachments. They won't be bogus Ukraine nonsense or J6 nonsense.
It will be long, wide, broad, deep corruption files. The corruption of the antitrust division using Mike Davis as an unregistered lobbyist who rumor has it has been paying off people like Steve Bannon behind the scenes. So Bannon might get dragged back. I mean, I don't know why Bannon wants to get indicted for his third term, but you know, or third time. But that's the kind of stuff that's happening. And then there's
going to have all the payforplay schemes, all the pay-forplay for pardons, all the payforplay for sweetheart deals in military contract uh involving Israeli companies and US companies. The board of peace is just one massive grift. All of that's going to come out and they'll tie it to policy. They'll tie it to AI policy. They'll tie it to Larry Ellison. They'll tie it to to the antitrust division. Larry Ellison, Paramount, various mergers,
controlling media on behalf of the Israel lobby, and connected AI like Palest intel and information that led to the attacks on girl schools uh both in Ukraine and in uh the uh the Ukraine Russian war and the Iran war. So, it's just going to be scandal after scandal after scandal and it's going to destroy what's left of them. And I think Trump will end up with an approval rating in the 20s
and if his approval rating is there, they're absolutely going to sacrifice him rather than keep him around. Yeah. So, the chance the chance that he gets removed are very high. What What will he because he he he's not just going to sit passively by on this. Whatever is going on in his brain. Uh he still is you you talked about a minute ago, he still has this burst of anger every time
things didn't go his way. I mean, what do you and this is a a pretty loaded question. Let's say that the election goes anywhere close to what you just described. What is he going to do in the interregnum in between then and January 3rd when the thing sits? because it seems like he may try to do something to offset that really too roads. He could recognize the reality, slam him in the
head, slap him in the face and realize he's got to course correct fast and course correct back to his uh you know, he basically got to get back to if you saw Melania as his OG base and Laura Loomer as his unfortunate mistress, then he's got to get back to his OG base as quickly as possible. Get deals done on Iran. get deals done on Ukraine. Uh, you know, start to pull
back military force, refocus on a US domestic agenda and and make the battle a different kind of battle so that to ba improve his baseline foundation uh going in so that he's not in the 20s but closer to the 40s and then he can survive impeachment and removal. That's the smart thing for him to do. That's what JD Vance is going to be encouraging him to do because whatever people think of
JD Vance, if he wants any chance at the White House, he needs Trump to course correct uh radically. And if Trump does it, then Chapter 8: Strategic course correction his only his only great hope is Trump removal. Uh otherwise, but the problem is his ego is driving things. His personality shift involves a motivational shift. I mean, it's when the New York Times came in, he's the one who had them print out
who he wanted to be compared to. and he wanted to be compared to Genghask Khan, Attilla the Hun and Napoleon. And I don't think and Napoleon doesn't share in common with the other two. I don't remember the Genghask Khan legal code, right? Being famous for Gangaskhan or Tilda the Hunt. It's these were conquerors. He wanted to be perceived as understood as seen as a great conqueror. With that personality shift in play,
the risk is like Brandon Wert and others have expressed this concern that he lashes out and tries to escalate kinetically somewhere around the world, drag us into some bigger broader conflict somewhere around the world. There are people that want him to do so in the Middle East, want him to do so as to Russia, and as to the person that the general you were referencing, uh, want to do so as to
China. Uh even though there's nobody with any practical common sense that thinks that's a good idea. Uh even within the Pentagon outside of the wacky generals we promoted with all the the loser stars on their on their banners. Uh but the uh you know you would hope that if Hgdeith is out and Kobe is uh replaces him that the restrainer impulse takes over that Vance will be encouraging him to take that
course correction route. Uh but there's no guarantees with this version of Trump unfortunately. Yeah, it's just uh I'm grasping the straws here looking for any kind of logic trail that can maybe see we can avoid some trouble and it's like there's minefields everywhere you want to go and if he steps in the wrong place it's it's just going to be a big trouble. You just have to convince him that Genghaskhan this
is what Genghask is Khan would do Mr. president the until the hunt they so you got to find some historical analogies maybe you got to make it up if you're in around the around the president if you're in vice president Vant's office find some analogy where gang is Khan pulled back where you know it's my old favorite Sunzu quote where the enemy is stronger retreat retreat people always forget they always have
the McKismo Sunzu quotes they forget that really important one I've used it a lot in you know legal strategy over the years the uh so you got to find one that sells Trump on that that somehow it's a super genius win uh for him to run for cover uh and and get out of dodge uh or or the most superior way to win war is to not fight. That's another good one.
Another great one. The uh but and and you know just say instead of Sunzu just say great uh Genghaskhan wisdom, Mr. President. Uh you know it's better than the dumro doctrine that we're currently employing the around the world. So uh it's going to be wild. I mean, the good thing is, I mean, I know people are skeptical out there about Vance, but, you know, I I think more and more information will
confirm over time what we're what I'm talking about is accurate. The New York Times has already confirmed it. A wide range of stories. Other sources have as well. The uh is that I think Vance and Kobe are are still restrainers on Trump encouraging the course correction. They'll have the ammunition to give him that course correction with the election results. And it would also help if Israeli would if Israel would throw BB
to the curb. Uh, but I think that's your other greatest risk. BB is facing an existential election. What false flag or ward kinetic conflict does he kick off 44 minutesto either delay those elections in Israel, which they can do in Israel. We can't do in the US. I've heard people talk about that. Trump can't postpone the US elections. That can't happen. Not constitutionally, not legally. Nobody's going to go along with it.
So on and so forth. Um, but what does BB do? It'd be nice if BB was out because at least BB's worm tonging wouldn't be available to Trump and it would be another slap in the face to Trump to realize, oh, okay, this is work going so badly. I got to get out. You got to get him somehow back to where he was in the summer for about a week where he's
like, sanctions don't work. I don't want the whole I don't want to be known as Jed as Herbert Hoover, you know, that kind of thing. And I hope that version comes back to Trump's reality. And I think if the elections are really bad, it might. Uh but you never know where Trump's current mindset and mentality is. Yeah, we were cheering that on on those after the June 17th sign of theou when
he was making all those statements. So we thought that's all right. So dodged a bullet. Well, we dodged a bullet for about four or five days and then it went south again. Um in the last few minutes we got with you here, I want to jump over to Europe real fast and look at the reaction to what President Trump has done with this diesel deal with with Russia, the claiming that Zillinsky
needs to that Ukraine needs to get a new president. and they to get rid of Zalinsky at all. Uh Kaya Callis though says look the only way to end this war um is to just give us everything we want. Chapter 9: Delusions of the elite The winter is going to be cold and and so it's important that it doesn't only apply to the refineries where Ukraine has one and Russia has plenty.
So it's definitely in the benefit of the Russians. So we have a minister subhai here also joining us giving firsthand knowledge from Ukraine should not forget about this. We should put the pressure on Russia so that they will stop because if they stop Ukrainians also don't have to take any steps to defend that country and that is what is all at stake it's really easy as long as Russia just stops fighting
then Ukraine doesn't have to defend. So why won't they do that? What do you think? the I mean Europe is still at a complete delusional mindset. The that's even more delusional than the Trump administration on the Middle East though occasionally Trump uh buys into it because it's what Rapoid preaches to him on a regular basis uh is that Ukraine is winning. Ukraine's about to win. Russia's about to collapse. But the and
and there appears to be an internal war in the US administration because Ukraine cannot effectively hit those Russian refineries unless they're getting lifetime satellite information from the Central Intelligence Agency. And so apparently the it's not clear what the president is aware of or what he isn't, but he's been complaining for weeks of the war on diesel. Well, it's a war that's being waged at Langley by Langley, critically with the help of
Langley. So, somebody needs to tell Rat Boy to stop the war uh on on on the Russian refining of of diesel fuel. The It's a convenient uh excuse for Trump because it allows Trump to say, "Ah, these gas prices have nothing to do with me. It's all about uh the Ukraine war." And then pretend that the Ukraine war also has nothing to do with him. Uh a war he promised to end
in . That he's instead enabled and assisted and made worse. But the Europe is still in a complete denial land. I think they'll be in denial when Kiev is got a Russian flag on top of it. They'll still be, you know, they're like Baghdad Bob on steroids, man. Uh I mean now I think Russia does now recognize and realize they need to win that war before 2029 comes around because Democrats are
nuts. They're so nuts. They're they're saying that they're going to try to uh pull back the president's authority to even do this deal on diesel. the uh they they recently passed the sanctions bill that gives Trump broad tariff authority that they otherwise complain about because that's how many Democrat whatever it starts with a fifth the uh congressman from the first district of Pennsylvania who's going to lose by the way and he's
in a in a dog fight and what is he spending time on complaining about the Russian diesel fuel deal because we need to go to war with Russia and you know the Republican from that district and he's been there forever and now he's going to tossed to the curb. That's where their mindset is. And it tells you how how disconnected from reality they are. Fox News only complains about Trump when they're
like, "Why are you doing anything good for Russia? We should be at war with Russia, too." So, these people are just you have this parasitic elite class in DC and just like the ones in Brussels and London and Paris that are and burn that are totally disconnected from not only their ordinary populace. Polling data shows us in in Europe all the way across. 70% more of the country of each country in
Europe thinks that their leaders don't listen to them at all and don't care about what they think at all. Same is true here in the US. But they're disconnected from empirical reality, economic reality. I mean, you would think we, you know, Kayakalis once a commi always economy, which is what her father was as part of the USSR. They, they're still probably mad, but Putin's not a commie. The uh is that, you
know, 49 minutesyour French yields are going through the roof. German yields are going through the roof. UK yields are going through the roof. US yields are going through the roof. The whole world is screaming this is unstable. The bond markets, one of the most sophisticated, politically sophisticated economic trading uh part of the entire economic marketplace, equities or bonds. And they're saying this is unsustainable. This is going to produce long-term cost shocks
to the global economy. And what do they do? They're worrying about ways to continue the war in Ukraine or continue the war in Iran or maybe escalate against China. Uh it tells you just how we have these parasitic elites that are not only corrupt, they're incompetent and they're encouragably incompetent uh built on an incestuous ideology that is destroying the very fabric uh the very family of ideas of western ideas uh that
could be dominant otherwise. So I think uh the whole world's the question is can we somehow get to this post uh this this unipolar moment and get to that you know multipolar moment without the whole world being set a flame because the Europe US unipolar moment has not worked and is what Putin recently said he said the multipolar world is here the problem is the unipolar world doesn't accept it and that's
when the world can get its most dangerous and you know it's interesting you talk about this parasitic elite disconnected from reality As it turns out, uh Gary actually found a photograph today of an American peace envoy that was going to Chapter 10: The future of politics uh to that was in Ukraine to talk about how we can get the world to peace. Uh and these guys have some great ideas. Gary, what
you have? Yeah. Well, I just thought you listen, I'm a I'm a fanboy of a of a special envoy from of Trump's. And here we've got uh good friend of the show, General Keith Kellogg, rubbing elbows and crafting America's future with whoever. And those whoevers are, you can see Dan Krenshaw there, but more importantly, General David Petraeus. Well, of course. I mean, he said no. He said he said these guys sent
there to craft out the future, but it was more like gouge out our our failures is what I think they're going to do. And they're uh these are the guys you're talking about. Exactly. I mean, well, thankfully, oneeyed McCain is finally going to be gone from the House of Representatives. uh the but and then with Petraeus that's a guy I'm pretty sure spent longer in prison given the stupid stuff he pulled
but the and that doesn't not the mistress scandal it's all the other scandals uh of you know American lives that were lost based on his stupidity see and his lies the and that's true of so many of these people I mean it was like one of the complaints about the potential live televised execution people thought maybe it's not a good timing to do it Joe Kent pointed out it will just help
Islamic terrorism not hurt it but others pointed out well we wouldn't mind if this was live execution of the Epstein class instead it's live execution by the Epstein class uh and it gives it and that's who they represent the sort of Epstein class mindset mentality approach to the world a certain arrogance a certain hubris uh and the question there's no question they're they're going to face the blowback for it you're seeing
it in German elections French elections UK elections to come Germany off day keeps overperforming overperforming overperforming center left center right completely collapsing the Germany and France X Le Pen is the next president. Melisan is the closest competitor. Matt Cron won't even exist. His whole country is half rioting in the moment. And where is he? He's off wondering whether he's going to be ahead of the ne the next head of the European
Central Bank instead. The uh in the UK they they went along with Trump's it was really Iran uh theory because initially there was no evidence to support it, but Trump kept putting the squeeze on them. So Bernham was like, "Okay, I'll play the script." Uh the uh but they are as disconnected as everywhere else. And there the next elections the lab the Labor party the Tories and the Liberal Democrats are likely
to have very few seats in the parliament and they will be replaced by restore and reform on the right and the Greens on the left. That's the future of Europe. It's the same future of the US is it's going to come a lot sooner. Uh first with a democratic success in 2026, but I think an independent third party movement in 2028 because well yeah that's what I was going to ask you
because just saying hey we're going to go have a big blue tsunami here that ain't going to really help us because the last times they were in charge they were just as bad and just in a different way. Is this going to lay the foundation finally for a viable third party? I think when Democrats prove once again in their midterms, other than probably have success with impeachments and removals, I think that
if they overreach too quickly and take Trump out too fast, it may help Vance get an opportunity to course correct and people can find out whether Vance is the person I believe he is or if he's the person critics believe he is because only you'll only know that if he gets to be president for a substantial time period. But if he radically course corrects, that would put Republicans in a good position
by 2028. But let's say he that doesn't happen or he doesn't do that and the Democrats continue their left-wing authoritarianism that they're uh you know the EU style that they're obsessed with where they want war just with a different country. They want it with an actual nuclear power rather than it 54 minuteswould be nuclear power. the then in 2028 what you're going to see is massive appetite for independent third-party options, new
options that already independents are going to be my prediction is by next year this time a majority of the American people will not identify uh with the Republican or Democratic party. they will identify as independents and they will be in search of a third party independent options and there's already people out there that are working at making sure that option is made available to them in 2028 and I think the appetite
for it will be like the appetite for the off day in Germany like Le Pen and Melison in France for the reform restore in the Greens in the UK same appetite will be here and the driving causes no more stupid war and I think uh what Trump got originally elected on the American voters are going to demand they actually get. They just may realize it's going to have to come from a
new party, not the existing parties. Yeah, I'm all for that. Whatever Whatever gets us there, a reformed Republican party or a new third party, I don't even care what it is. As long as it's somebody that can bring prosperity and peace to our country, uh they're going to get my vote. Thanks so much for coming on, Robert, and and laying out this uh this stark ground that we have here. But we
really appreciate it because it's very useful. Oh, yeah. And if people want to see a deep dive as to what some of those reforms conversations might be like, go to 1776 lawcenter.com. They have got all the interviews from the conference up. You can see interview with the one and only uh Daniel Davis. You can also see uh with Richard Barers talking about appetite for third parties incoming. the uh Jim Webb talking
about how many what the competency level of foreign policy analysis is on the hill that you can uh Alexander McCor talking about being held hostage uh as a six-year-old during the Greek coup. Uh that's crazy. Oh yeah, Alex Christophoru, you know, people that are on the front lines of Maha, Michelle Renault, state representative in Tennessee, Amy Miller, Dr. Bowen, uh Brooke Jackson, the Fiser whistleblower, Chase Hughes talking about how to detect
and avoid a CIA scop. Greg Hartley and Scott Rouse talking about how to use body language to help communicate and learn how to interpret people. All of that and more. 1776 lawcenter.com. Awesome. Yeah, that's some great stuff. And I especially the stuff with Al Mercurius. That was some crazy stories. Actually, all these were it was fantastic. I enjoyed being a participant as much as being one of people on the stage. So,
it was great. Thanks for having me there, by the way. Oh, it was fantastic. In fact, we'll do it we're going to do it again this coming August to run back, have a few more guests. And the the theme of the conference next August is going to be the third and new political movements in the Western world. Uh which will include the US which might have some guests that might be running
for that office in 2028. Well, listen, well, we will be promoting that the day that you start putting that out there. Uh and you guys need to get your tickets early because it was if it wasn't sold out, it was standing room only when I was there. So, don't miss out this year. We're looking forward to that. Absolutely. Thank you. All right. We'll see you guys. I was going to say hope
we we'll all still be there by then. All right. Well, there's that. Yeah. If there is, that will show a good path to make sure we stay there. And if not, then oh, damn. Exactly. We'll have to see. But thanks so much. We appreciate you guys. And we'll see you tomorrow on the Daniel Da
You know, I've been betting on elections since I was a kid. So the there's several that have been highly predictive in a midterm and that's what happens who's who's voting and who's not in different
primaries particularly because a lot of our states allow independents to pick a different ballot Republican or Democratic primary as they like the the how much what Gallup you look at independent voters who do they say they lean more towards Democrats or Republicans you can look at late voter registration in the buildup to the election who's flooding the polls who's who and which party is getting an edge there You can look at
how they're voting in we have so many early voting mechanisms now that over time are becoming more predictive because we have a better baseline whether it's mail-in voting or early voting in a wide range of jurisdictions and the trend in all of them is exactly the same which is Democrats are heading for a blowout victory of a size they have never won by in the modern era that you're talking about it
could get as high as Democrat plus 15. I mean, you know, it it was uh Democrats the biggest margin they've ever won by is eight points in the modern era since uh since 1994. And the they may double that margin. And wow, 30 minutesthat translates into 56 or more Democratic senators up to 60 Democratic Senate seats. That could translate into up to 60. Yes. Up to 60. There are there their there
are internal polling by Republicans show close races currently in South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, and not to mention uh and South Dakota. They're already in behind in Maine. They're behind in North Carolina, behind in Michigan, behind in Georgia, behind in Ohio, behind in Iowa, behind in Texas, behind in Kansas, behind in uh uh uh Texas, behind in Alaska. Uh so the so they're already behind in a bunch of states that are
going to give the Democrats the majority, but there there's there even tight races in places people don't like South Carolina. Turns out being a warhore uh is not a winning ticket. Even in South Carolina, South Carolina's voting electorate has been changing now for 20 years. Over half of the people who vote in South Carolina were not born in South Carolina or even born in the deep south. The uh so that different
people have been moving in there and it's not just military voters like it used to be. It's a working-class Catholics moving into Myrtle Beach area and places like that. You start to aggregate that vote and there's a generational shift from older boomers, silent generation to millennials and zoomers and the that is a massive anti-war voting shift and this comes from the the people keep forgetting in America political class keeps forgetting but
every war starting party has paid a price at the polls sooner or later. the going all the way World War I. Wilson got Democrats got hammered after World War I. Uh even at World War II, Democrats got hammered in 1946 after that war ended. It was the Korean War that took Truman down and put Eisenhower in the White House by massive margins. The the Vietnam War took out the Democrats of the
1960s. The even of the popular Iraq War led to George W. Bush a year later getting a record low level of support for an incumbent president of the United States. The the Iraq War II destroyed George W. Bush and the Republicans the first time around. The and so and this war is more unpopular than all of those and none of them had been elected on a committed an anti-war vote. All of
them promised. Roosevelt promised keep us out of World War II. Wood Wilson promised to keep us out of World War I. All of that. Uh Lyndon Bane Johnson said he'd be less wararmongering than Barry Goldwater. You know, you name it. but not as bad as what Trump spent a decade campaigning against these wars starting in South Carolina, a presidential primary he won right after he attacked Iraq War I and said George
W. Bush should have been impeached for it. So that's where the uh country is at. And so that they're going to lose the Senate. The only question is how bad they're going to lose the House. They could lose up to 255 House seats. That's how bad it could be. They may be Democrats may have the biggest house margin they've had since before 1994. What would that put the margin at in the
House? 255 House seats could go Democrat. Now, what does it also mean? It means Jeffre ain't going to be speaker unless he changes his tune on Israel. It means a much more aggressive, likely Israel skeptic is the speaker of the house. It means uh if if it's 55 or more in the Senate, Schumer probably gets tossed aside. The and they put somebody that's much more aggressive running the Senate, someone who's not
as differential to Israel in the Senate. You even have people like Senator Kelly saying the very first thing we're going to do is completely defund everything related to the Iran war. So the uh and of course the impeachments are just going to start rolling and rolling and rolling. They'll start with Heg's death. If he's dumb enough to still be there, he he's smart. He'll get out of dodge. And of course, Trump
will just throw him under the train as soon as he can, as as soon as it's useful for him to do so. Um, but that's why his political capital to do anything in Iran is going to shrink dramatically once those election results come in. And but there's still a risk because he is just not a rat. He's an emotional driven decision maker whose number one thing is not what would Jesus do,
it's what would Khan do. And when you think like that, you have a constant you're at risk in the White House. But the biggest risk is to not only his legacy, I think that if you get to 55, 56 or more Democratic senators, he faces a real risk of conviction and removal from the presidency in 2027. Well, yeah, I was going to say because if you get that many, you don't need
very many Republicans to to join in with that. And if there's that big of a swing in the population, uh, it'll be hard for all the Republicans to just protect him no matter what. Don't you think? Absolutely. And, you know, there isn't a Republican senator. The way I always put it is it's not a Republican senator that doesn't have a poster of Brutus at home Chapter 7: Impeachment and removal risks in
their closet that you know, as a super as a superhero. The And you But you add to two, they all hate Trump. Uh, three, now they have personal vendettas against Trump because they don't like what they what happened to Cornin. They don't like what happened to Tillis. They don't like what happened to uh the senator from Louisiana. Even though all the all of them were pricks and losers, but doesn't matter. People
like Marshall, people like Wicker. There's a bunch Well, Marshall might be gone, so they But John Curtis, well, immediately he's already floating this idea out there. The senator from Utah, the old Romney allies. So, there's a bunch of them that can't wait to stab Trump in the back. And then it's not just that the Democrats will have an, you know, to where they only need maybe a dozen votes or fewer Republican
votes to win. If it's that bad of a bloodbath, the biggest ever Senate blood bath in terms of the map, because right now, the reason why nobody thought Republicans could lose the Senate is because the Democrats have to win several seats that the that Trump won by 13 points or more in 2024 just two years ago. Shocking. Uh the so that's very rare to see that kind of switch occur. But they're
going to say, "Hey, the whole problem was Trump." They won't admit the war machine was the problem. The war so the war was the problem. They won't admit that either. They'll just say, "You know what? It was because we flirted with this guy who was not part of the respectable political class. Uh we we you know, this guy shoved his way into the club. We knew he never qualified for admission. We
need to publicly expel him, publicly purge him, and that will make all everything great for the Republican party." He did. So people forget it was Republicans who went to Nixon and told him that he would lose the impeachment vote if he didn't resign. So that's the that's where they're going to go. The mindset will be to blame him for it. And then we don't even get to what's going to be the
tipping factor is Democrats have built up massively deep files. These won't be the bogus impeachments of his first term where where you know bogus impeachment over January 6, bogus impeachment uh you know January 6. I mean, give you an idea where Trump's administration is, is they're busy framing a black autistic kid to cover up a crime committed against the Trump supporters, which was that the January 6 pipe bomber was was likely
a someone that is currently on Rat Boy CIA payroll and which would show that January 6 had an inside job component from the get-go and wasn't the insurrection that the media tried to pretend it was. But what is Trump doing? He's avoiding that being exposed, covering up from that being exposed by framing a black autistic kid, Brian Cole, using coercive confession techniques to do so uh in an uncountled four plus hour
interview, which any honest administration wouldn't get near. But the fact that he's doing it to cover for the deep state rather than expose the deep state, to cover for people committing crimes against him rather than to expose those who committed crimes against him, gives you an idea of the mindset and the mentality of this administration. And but the and it's for these impeachments. They won't be bogus Ukraine nonsense or J6 nonsense.
It will be long, wide, broad, deep corruption files. The corruption of the antitrust division using Mike Davis as an unregistered lobbyist who rumor has it has been paying off people like Steve Bannon behind the scenes. So Bannon might get dragged back. I mean, I don't know why Bannon wants to get indicted for his third term, but you know, or third time. But that's the kind of stuff that's happening. And then there's
going to have all the payforplay schemes, all the pay-forplay for pardons, all the payforplay for sweetheart deals in military contract uh involving Israeli companies and US companies. The board of peace is just one massive grift. All of that's going to come out and they'll tie it to policy. They'll tie it to AI policy. They'll tie it to Larry Ellison. They'll tie it to to the antitrust division. Larry Ellison, Paramount, various mergers,
controlling media on behalf of the Israel lobby, and connected AI like Palest intel and information that led to the attacks on girl schools uh both in Ukraine and in uh the uh the Ukraine Russian war and the Iran war. So, it's just going to be scandal after scandal after scandal and it's going to destroy what's left of them. And I think Trump will end up with an approval rating in the 20s
and if his approval rating is there, they're absolutely going to sacrifice him rather than keep him around. Yeah. So, the chance the chance that he gets removed are very high. What What will he because he he he's not just going to sit passively by on this. Whatever is going on in his brain. Uh he still is you you talked about a minute ago, he still has this burst of anger every time
things didn't go his way. I mean, what do you and this is a a pretty loaded question. Let's say that the election goes anywhere close to what you just described. What is he going to do in the interregnum in between then and January 3rd when the thing sits? because it seems like he may try to do something to offset that really too roads. He could recognize the reality, slam him in the
head, slap him in the face and realize he's got to course correct fast and course correct back to his uh you know, he basically got to get back to if you saw Melania as his OG base and Laura Loomer as his unfortunate mistress, then he's got to get back to his OG base as quickly as possible. Get deals done on Iran. get deals done on Ukraine. Uh, you know, start to pull
back military force, refocus on a US domestic agenda and and make the battle a different kind of battle so that to ba improve his baseline foundation uh going in so that he's not in the 20s but closer to the 40s and then he can survive impeachment and removal. That's the smart thing for him to do. That's what JD Vance is going to be encouraging him to do because whatever people think of
JD Vance, if he wants any chance at the White House, he needs Trump to course correct uh radically. And if Trump does it, then Chapter 8: Strategic course correction his only his only great hope is Trump removal. Uh otherwise, but the problem is his ego is driving things. His personality shift involves a motivational shift. I mean, it's when the New York Times came in, he's the one who had them print out
who he wanted to be compared to. and he wanted to be compared to Genghask Khan, Attilla the Hun and Napoleon. And I don't think and Napoleon doesn't share in common with the other two. I don't remember the Genghask Khan legal code, right? Being famous for Gangaskhan or Tilda the Hunt. It's these were conquerors. He wanted to be perceived as understood as seen as a great conqueror. With that personality shift in play,
the risk is like Brandon Wert and others have expressed this concern that he lashes out and tries to escalate kinetically somewhere around the world, drag us into some bigger broader conflict somewhere around the world. There are people that want him to do so in the Middle East, want him to do so as to Russia, and as to the person that the general you were referencing, uh, want to do so as to
China. Uh even though there's nobody with any practical common sense that thinks that's a good idea. Uh even within the Pentagon outside of the wacky generals we promoted with all the the loser stars on their on their banners. Uh but the uh you know you would hope that if Hgdeith is out and Kobe is uh replaces him that the restrainer impulse takes over that Vance will be encouraging him to take that
course correction route. Uh but there's no guarantees with this version of Trump unfortunately. Yeah, it's just uh I'm grasping the straws here looking for any kind of logic trail that can maybe see we can avoid some trouble and it's like there's minefields everywhere you want to go and if he steps in the wrong place it's it's just going to be a big trouble. You just have to convince him that Genghaskhan this
is what Genghask is Khan would do Mr. president the until the hunt they so you got to find some historical analogies maybe you got to make it up if you're in around the around the president if you're in vice president Vant's office find some analogy where gang is Khan pulled back where you know it's my old favorite Sunzu quote where the enemy is stronger retreat retreat people always forget they always have
the McKismo Sunzu quotes they forget that really important one I've used it a lot in you know legal strategy over the years the uh so you got to find one that sells Trump on that that somehow it's a super genius win uh for him to run for cover uh and and get out of dodge uh or or the most superior way to win war is to not fight. That's another good one.
Another great one. The uh but and and you know just say instead of Sunzu just say great uh Genghaskhan wisdom, Mr. President. Uh you know it's better than the dumro doctrine that we're currently employing the around the world. So uh it's going to be wild. I mean, the good thing is, I mean, I know people are skeptical out there about Vance, but, you know, I I think more and more information will
confirm over time what we're what I'm talking about is accurate. The New York Times has already confirmed it. A wide range of stories. Other sources have as well. The uh is that I think Vance and Kobe are are still restrainers on Trump encouraging the course correction. They'll have the ammunition to give him that course correction with the election results. And it would also help if Israeli would if Israel would throw BB
to the curb. Uh, but I think that's your other greatest risk. BB is facing an existential election. What false flag or ward kinetic conflict does he kick off 44 minutesto either delay those elections in Israel, which they can do in Israel. We can't do in the US. I've heard people talk about that. Trump can't postpone the US elections. That can't happen. Not constitutionally, not legally. Nobody's going to go along with it.
So on and so forth. Um, but what does BB do? It'd be nice if BB was out because at least BB's worm tonging wouldn't be available to Trump and it would be another slap in the face to Trump to realize, oh, okay, this is work going so badly. I got to get out. You got to get him somehow back to where he was in the summer for about a week where he's
like, sanctions don't work. I don't want the whole I don't want to be known as Jed as Herbert Hoover, you know, that kind of thing. And I hope that version comes back to Trump's reality. And I think if the elections are really bad, it might. Uh but you never know where Trump's current mindset and mentality is. Yeah, we were cheering that on on those after the June 17th sign of theou when
he was making all those statements. So we thought that's all right. So dodged a bullet. Well, we dodged a bullet for about four or five days and then it went south again. Um in the last few minutes we got with you here, I want to jump over to Europe real fast and look at the reaction to what President Trump has done with this diesel deal with with Russia, the claiming that Zillinsky
needs to that Ukraine needs to get a new president. and they to get rid of Zalinsky at all. Uh Kaya Callis though says look the only way to end this war um is to just give us everything we want. Chapter 9: Delusions of the elite The winter is going to be cold and and so it's important that it doesn't only apply to the refineries where Ukraine has one and Russia has plenty.
So it's definitely in the benefit of the Russians. So we have a minister subhai here also joining us giving firsthand knowledge from Ukraine should not forget about this. We should put the pressure on Russia so that they will stop because if they stop Ukrainians also don't have to take any steps to defend that country and that is what is all at stake it's really easy as long as Russia just stops fighting
then Ukraine doesn't have to defend. So why won't they do that? What do you think? the I mean Europe is still at a complete delusional mindset. The that's even more delusional than the Trump administration on the Middle East though occasionally Trump uh buys into it because it's what Rapoid preaches to him on a regular basis uh is that Ukraine is winning. Ukraine's about to win. Russia's about to collapse. But the and
and there appears to be an internal war in the US administration because Ukraine cannot effectively hit those Russian refineries unless they're getting lifetime satellite information from the Central Intelligence Agency. And so apparently the it's not clear what the president is aware of or what he isn't, but he's been complaining for weeks of the war on diesel. Well, it's a war that's being waged at Langley by Langley, critically with the help of
Langley. So, somebody needs to tell Rat Boy to stop the war uh on on on the Russian refining of of diesel fuel. The It's a convenient uh excuse for Trump because it allows Trump to say, "Ah, these gas prices have nothing to do with me. It's all about uh the Ukraine war." And then pretend that the Ukraine war also has nothing to do with him. Uh a war he promised to end
in . That he's instead enabled and assisted and made worse. But the Europe is still in a complete denial land. I think they'll be in denial when Kiev is got a Russian flag on top of it. They'll still be, you know, they're like Baghdad Bob on steroids, man. Uh I mean now I think Russia does now recognize and realize they need to win that war before 2029 comes around because Democrats are
nuts. They're so nuts. They're they're saying that they're going to try to uh pull back the president's authority to even do this deal on diesel. the uh they they recently passed the sanctions bill that gives Trump broad tariff authority that they otherwise complain about because that's how many Democrat whatever it starts with a fifth the uh congressman from the first district of Pennsylvania who's going to lose by the way and he's
in a in a dog fight and what is he spending time on complaining about the Russian diesel fuel deal because we need to go to war with Russia and you know the Republican from that district and he's been there forever and now he's going to tossed to the curb. That's where their mindset is. And it tells you how how disconnected from reality they are. Fox News only complains about Trump when they're
like, "Why are you doing anything good for Russia? We should be at war with Russia, too." So, these people are just you have this parasitic elite class in DC and just like the ones in Brussels and London and Paris that are and burn that are totally disconnected from not only their ordinary populace. Polling data shows us in in Europe all the way across. 70% more of the country of each country in
Europe thinks that their leaders don't listen to them at all and don't care about what they think at all. Same is true here in the US. But they're disconnected from empirical reality, economic reality. I mean, you would think we, you know, Kayakalis once a commi always economy, which is what her father was as part of the USSR. They, they're still probably mad, but Putin's not a commie. The uh is that, you
know, 49 minutesyour French yields are going through the roof. German yields are going through the roof. UK yields are going through the roof. US yields are going through the roof. The whole world is screaming this is unstable. The bond markets, one of the most sophisticated, politically sophisticated economic trading uh part of the entire economic marketplace, equities or bonds. And they're saying this is unsustainable. This is going to produce long-term cost shocks
to the global economy. And what do they do? They're worrying about ways to continue the war in Ukraine or continue the war in Iran or maybe escalate against China. Uh it tells you just how we have these parasitic elites that are not only corrupt, they're incompetent and they're encouragably incompetent uh built on an incestuous ideology that is destroying the very fabric uh the very family of ideas of western ideas uh that
could be dominant otherwise. So I think uh the whole world's the question is can we somehow get to this post uh this this unipolar moment and get to that you know multipolar moment without the whole world being set a flame because the Europe US unipolar moment has not worked and is what Putin recently said he said the multipolar world is here the problem is the unipolar world doesn't accept it and that's
when the world can get its most dangerous and you know it's interesting you talk about this parasitic elite disconnected from reality As it turns out, uh Gary actually found a photograph today of an American peace envoy that was going to Chapter 10: The future of politics uh to that was in Ukraine to talk about how we can get the world to peace. Uh and these guys have some great ideas. Gary, what
you have? Yeah. Well, I just thought you listen, I'm a I'm a fanboy of a of a special envoy from of Trump's. And here we've got uh good friend of the show, General Keith Kellogg, rubbing elbows and crafting America's future with whoever. And those whoevers are, you can see Dan Krenshaw there, but more importantly, General David Petraeus. Well, of course. I mean, he said no. He said he said these guys sent
there to craft out the future, but it was more like gouge out our our failures is what I think they're going to do. And they're uh these are the guys you're talking about. Exactly. I mean, well, thankfully, oneeyed McCain is finally going to be gone from the House of Representatives. uh the but and then with Petraeus that's a guy I'm pretty sure spent longer in prison given the stupid stuff he pulled
but the and that doesn't not the mistress scandal it's all the other scandals uh of you know American lives that were lost based on his stupidity see and his lies the and that's true of so many of these people I mean it was like one of the complaints about the potential live televised execution people thought maybe it's not a good timing to do it Joe Kent pointed out it will just help
Islamic terrorism not hurt it but others pointed out well we wouldn't mind if this was live execution of the Epstein class instead it's live execution by the Epstein class uh and it gives it and that's who they represent the sort of Epstein class mindset mentality approach to the world a certain arrogance a certain hubris uh and the question there's no question they're they're going to face the blowback for it you're seeing
it in German elections French elections UK elections to come Germany off day keeps overperforming overperforming overperforming center left center right completely collapsing the Germany and France X Le Pen is the next president. Melisan is the closest competitor. Matt Cron won't even exist. His whole country is half rioting in the moment. And where is he? He's off wondering whether he's going to be ahead of the ne the next head of the European
Central Bank instead. The uh in the UK they they went along with Trump's it was really Iran uh theory because initially there was no evidence to support it, but Trump kept putting the squeeze on them. So Bernham was like, "Okay, I'll play the script." Uh the uh but they are as disconnected as everywhere else. And there the next elections the lab the Labor party the Tories and the Liberal Democrats are likely
to have very few seats in the parliament and they will be replaced by restore and reform on the right and the Greens on the left. That's the future of Europe. It's the same future of the US is it's going to come a lot sooner. Uh first with a democratic success in 2026, but I think an independent third party movement in 2028 because well yeah that's what I was going to ask you
because just saying hey we're going to go have a big blue tsunami here that ain't going to really help us because the last times they were in charge they were just as bad and just in a different way. Is this going to lay the foundation finally for a viable third party? I think when Democrats prove once again in their midterms, other than probably have success with impeachments and removals, I think that
if they overreach too quickly and take Trump out too fast, it may help Vance get an opportunity to course correct and people can find out whether Vance is the person I believe he is or if he's the person critics believe he is because only you'll only know that if he gets to be president for a substantial time period. But if he radically course corrects, that would put Republicans in a good position
by 2028. But let's say he that doesn't happen or he doesn't do that and the Democrats continue their left-wing authoritarianism that they're uh you know the EU style that they're obsessed with where they want war just with a different country. They want it with an actual nuclear power rather than it 54 minuteswould be nuclear power. the then in 2028 what you're going to see is massive appetite for independent third-party options, new
options that already independents are going to be my prediction is by next year this time a majority of the American people will not identify uh with the Republican or Democratic party. they will identify as independents and they will be in search of a third party independent options and there's already people out there that are working at making sure that option is made available to them in 2028 and I think the appetite
for it will be like the appetite for the off day in Germany like Le Pen and Melison in France for the reform restore in the Greens in the UK same appetite will be here and the driving causes no more stupid war and I think uh what Trump got originally elected on the American voters are going to demand they actually get. They just may realize it's going to have to come from a
new party, not the existing parties. Yeah, I'm all for that. Whatever Whatever gets us there, a reformed Republican party or a new third party, I don't even care what it is. As long as it's somebody that can bring prosperity and peace to our country, uh they're going to get my vote. Thanks so much for coming on, Robert, and and laying out this uh this stark ground that we have here. But we
really appreciate it because it's very useful. Oh, yeah. And if people want to see a deep dive as to what some of those reforms conversations might be like, go to 1776 lawcenter.com. They have got all the interviews from the conference up. You can see interview with the one and only uh Daniel Davis. You can also see uh with Richard Barers talking about appetite for third parties incoming. the uh Jim Webb talking
about how many what the competency level of foreign policy analysis is on the hill that you can uh Alexander McCor talking about being held hostage uh as a six-year-old during the Greek coup. Uh that's crazy. Oh yeah, Alex Christophoru, you know, people that are on the front lines of Maha, Michelle Renault, state representative in Tennessee, Amy Miller, Dr. Bowen, uh Brooke Jackson, the Fiser whistleblower, Chase Hughes talking about how to detect
and avoid a CIA scop. Greg Hartley and Scott Rouse talking about how to use body language to help communicate and learn how to interpret people. All of that and more. 1776 lawcenter.com. Awesome. Yeah, that's some great stuff. And I especially the stuff with Al Mercurius. That was some crazy stories. Actually, all these were it was fantastic. I enjoyed being a participant as much as being one of people on the stage. So,
it was great. Thanks for having me there, by the way. Oh, it was fantastic. In fact, we'll do it we're going to do it again this coming August to run back, have a few more guests. And the the theme of the conference next August is going to be the third and new political movements in the Western world. Uh which will include the US which might have some guests that might be running
for that office in 2028. Well, listen, well, we will be promoting that the day that you start putting that out there. Uh and you guys need to get your tickets early because it was if it wasn't sold out, it was standing room only when I was there. So, don't miss out this year. We're looking forward to that. Absolutely. Thank you. All right. We'll see you guys. I was going to say hope
we we'll all still be there by then. All right. Well, there's that. Yeah. If there is, that will show a good path to make sure we stay there. And if not, then oh, damn. Exactly. We'll have to see. But thanks so much. We appreciate you guys. And we'll see you tomorrow on the Daniel Da
-
admin
- Site Admin
- Posts: 41616
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am
Re: PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE
US-Directed Strikes on Russian AI & Energy Centers As False US Diplomacy Floated
by Brian Berletic
The New Atlas
Oct 11, 2026 Russia-Ukraine
The US continues strikes on Russian data centers and energy production amid another round of false diplomatic and energy deals with Russia;
The US is degrading critical Russian capabilities both in terms of AI development and energy production/exports while suffering no losses to its own capabilities at home;
False diplomacy has allowed the US to buy time and space for future pressure and hostilities against not only Russia, but also Iran and China;
The only reason Russia, Iran, and China likely tolerate these brief pauses in hostility is because it affords them additional time as well to reorganize, rearm, and prepare for further tension;
The future will be decided based on who is using this time better;
References:
BBC - Russian search engine Yandex struggles after Ukrainian strikes on data centres (Oct. 10, 2026):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c68...
TED - The AI Revolution Is Underhyped | Eric Schmidt | TED (May 2025):
• The AI Revolution Is Underhyped | Eric Sch...
France 24 - Ukraine: How a kamikaze drone partially operated by AI is attacking Russian convoys (Jun 2026):
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20...
BBC - Trump announces deal for Russian diesel as Zelensky calls it a gift to Putin (Oct. 11, 2026):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm1...
Reuters - US extends sanctions waiver on Russian oil to aid vulnerable countries (May 2026):
https://www.reuters.com/business/ener...
Newsweek - Ukraine Strikes Major Russian Oil Hub Hours After Trump’s Deal With Putin (Oct. 10, 2026):
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-stri...
NYT - The Separation: Inside the Unraveling U.S.-Ukraine Partnership (Dec. 2025):
https://archive.ph/8s49D#selection-77...
Where to Find My Work:
Website: https://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/brianlovethailand
X (Twitter): / brianjberletic
Rumble (YouTube alternative): https://rumble.com/c/c-1459863
Transcript
Chapter 1: The US war on multipolarism Today is October 12th, 2026. I want to talk about the expanding US war on multipolarism. Despite the facade of diplomacy, the US is once again floating publicly in an attempt to buy itself space and time to to continue this very war on multipolarism. I want to warn people against buying into this. I don't know why at this point anyone would.
This is just the latest iteration in a repeated cycle of floating diplomacy to buy space and time ahead of continued aggression not just against Iran in West Asia, but also the US proxy war against Russia and Ukraine and of course continued preparations for proxy or direct war against China and East Asia. I want to go over a couple of social media posts that I have made Chapter 2: Targeting data centers since
my last video. I want to talk first and foremost about this strike on a data center in Russia. These data centers are the backbone of artificial intelligence. This is how artificial intelligence is empowered. It is empowered through computing and this computing is done in massive data centers in each respective country leading artificial intelligence or leveraging artificial intelligence. We have data centers all across the United States, all across Russia, and of course
all across China. And striking these data centers is very similar to say if you wanted to stop the development of a nation's nuclear power, you would and especially nuclear capabilities, nuclear weapons, nuclear power, you would strike at the the laboratories or the the power plants where nuclear material was being made. And if you want to stop artificial intelligence, you strike at the data centers. And that is exactly what the United States
is now doing, of course, by proxy. And this is simply uh a trial run for what they would ultimately want to do visav China. Now, I'm going to go over this real quick and then I'm going to share with you a very very disturbing video that was published last year, May 2025, and I will show you how it all comes together and how the the very people talking about bombing data centers
last year are the ones directly involved in doing so this year. So, USD directed Ukrainian drone strikes on on Russian Yandex data center have wider implications. It isn't just another high-value target that they just decided to strike at to hurt the the overall Russian economy. This is a very precise strike for a very precise reason. US has made no secret its desire to dominate the future by dominating key technology shaping it,
especially artificial intelligence. I will refer to it as AI. I think everyone knows that. But just in case, Eric Schmidt of Google, currently enabling Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia, had publicly discussed quote unquote China. I don't think he said China by name, but he was obviously inferring China or say Russia in his talk. I will show you that talk here in just a minute. Striking at US data centers to prevent a
gamechanging breakthrough. However, his comments were pure projection, meaning the US was proposing striking data centers in other nations, especially China, but also Russia. Through the vast network of proxies the US maintains worldwide, and the failure of multipolarism to defend against or roll back US political capture, the US can freely strike at data centers, slowing AI development in these targeted countries while advancing AI at home free of threat. Now, let's listen to
Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, right now directly involved in the US Chapter 3: Eric Schmidt and AI projection war on Russia in Ukraine. And let's listen to what he said last year, May 2025, 4 minutesabout data centers. You don't have to feed them except electricity. So, that's good. Second, the slope is like this. Well, as we get closer to super intelligence, the slope goes like this. If you get there first,
you dastardly person, you're never never going to be able to catch me. I will not be able to catch you. And I've given you the tools to reinvent the world and in particular destroy me. That's how my brain, Mr. Evil, is going to think. Okay. So, he's obviously talking about pure nations like Russia and China. And he's talking about how AI will enable a nation to achieve a pinnacle in technology that
will that will essentially give it the keys to controlling the future which is is openly what the US talks about. The whole project meridian is about how to you use AI to give the US back the military superiority that it has enjoyed over this whole 21st century up until now. And that's what they're aiming to do with AI. and they know they cannot win this AI race, especially against China. And so
he's going to talk about bombing data centers as if the US is inevitably going to win the AI race and other nations are going to try to bomb US data centers, but he's actually explaining the logic of the US bombing data centers in places like Russia and China. And now, right now, the US is bombing data centers in Russia. So, what am I going to do? The first sabotage, the first thing
I'm going to do is try to steal all your code. and you've prevented that because you're good and you you were good. So, you're [snorts] still good at Google. Second, [laughter] that then I'm going to infiltrate you with humans. Well, you've got good protections against that. You know, we don't have spies. So, what do I do? Hm. I'm going to go in and I'm going to change your model. I'm going to
modify it. I'm going to actually screw you up to get me. So, I'm one day ahead of you and you're so good. I can't do that. What's my next choice? Bomb your data center. Wow. Now, do you think I'm insane? These conversations are occurring around nuclear opponents today in our world. There are legitimate people saying the only solution to this problem is preeemption. Now, I just told you that you, Mr. Good,
are about to have the keys to control the entire world, both in terms of economic dominance, innovation, surveillance, whatever it is that you care about. I have to prevent that. We don't have any language in our society. The foreign policy people have not thought about this and this is coming. When is it coming? Probably 5 years. Okay. And so that's the end of that that part of the discussion. And as he
was talking about bombing data centers, I switched over to news stories Chapter 4: Asymmetrical warfare analysis of the US through Ukraine bombing data centers. And they pointed out how when they say Ukrainian drones striking Russian data centers, they're talking about US and European designed, built, transferred over to Ukraine, uh drones using US intelligence surveillance reconnaissance, ISR, to strike these targets all across Russia to circumvent their air defenses and to strike these
targets. These are US strikes on Russian data centers. And as I've pointed out and others have pointed out over the last year or so, the the advent of these AIdriven drones, striking targets, striking Russian targets, these are US-made drones, and they were built and designed and funded specifically by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt. And so he's he's he's telling you by by reverse psychology, he's telling you this is what the US
is going to do or you could call it projection. Maybe he's telling you what the US is actually going to do and why the US is losing the AI race. They're you they're losing the race in general for US control, US primacy over the globe. They're losing they understand it is it's not just AI. It's not just energy. It's not just manufacturing. It is the combination of all of this. And so
the United States is attacking all of this. And now speaking of energy. So so let's just finish up with AI here first. The US will continue expanding strikes on Russian data centers and continue preparing to likewise destroy Chinese centers by proxies unless serious changes are made deterring and defending against such threats. In other words, Russia can turn Ukraine into an abandoned parking lot in response to its data centers being destroyed. But
the US, who is ultimately behind Ukraine and all other proxies fighting Russia, will suffer zero damage or danger to its own data centers and the development they enable. the development of AI that they enable that will be used by the US to try to maintain its primacy to try to top the rise of multipolarism to prevent nations like Russia and China and Iran and uh the rest of bricks and everyone in
between from trying to build a balance of power between nations and prevent one single nation like the US from dominating over all others. Dominating over and dictating to all others. The US is waging war on Russia and degrading Russian capabilities without any fear or any setbacks or serious dangers to itself. People constantly talk about look at the damage that's being done to Russia. But Russia is doing so much more damage to
Ukraine. From an American point of view, it's irrelevant. That's the whole point of having a proxy is for them to take the damage and for you to to use all of the benefits from the ongoing war. So you are degrading Russian AI capabilities in development. You are suffering no damage to your own data centers. They are completely unharmed. They're not there's 10 minutesnot even a discussion about targeting US data centers. Instead,
Russia's bombing data centers in Ukraine. What difference does that make for the United States? It makes none. And so this is the the strategic lay of this conflict. I'm trying to point out the actual strategic way versus how it's presented in the Chapter 5: Strategic material reality mainstream media and how a lot of uh people in the alternative media fall into this trap of trying to analyze it in the way that
it's framed by the western media. You cannot do that. You have to go to material reality and see how it is actually framed in reality to win. And if no real retaliation is carried out against US itself, Russia and others like China must make sure they're capable of suffering these these losses and are still able to prevail over the US despite the asymmetrical advantage proxy war gives us. In other words, Russia,
China, Iran, the rest of bricks, the entire multipolar world, they need to make sure that they have a strategy to continue advancing far beyond the the advances of the US. ensure that their AI capabilities continue advancing far beyond those of the US. No matter what the US does, if you're not going to retaliate against the US directly, you need to make sure that no matter what the US does, no matter how
many losses you suffer, you can still come out at the end the winner. That's what you have to make sure. And at this point, I don't know. I don't have all the metrics in front of me. I don't see what Moscow, Beijing, Tran, uh the rest of bricks, I don't see what they see. They have access to information that I do not. Maybe they are confident that no matter what the US
does to data centers in Russia or how they try to threaten data centers in China, that they are all ultimately going to succeed against the United States. Maybe that's the calculation. Maybe that's why they're just biting their time and uh having this all play out because they are confident in the end they will win. But that is a big if and this is why I'm attracting attention to this topic so people
can see it's not that clearcut. Chapter 6: Energy warfare and influence And now speaking of other areas of importance being attacked by the US in an attempt to undermine the rise of the multipolar world let's talk about energy. Energy is directly connected to AI because AI depends on data centers. Data centers require huge amounts of energy. This is energy that competes with the rest of the population industry of the public in
any given nation. China has a huge huge amount of energy that it is using and constantly developing toward this end. Other nations are doing likewise. uh but if the United States is attacking at say we always talk about Chinese energy independence they are working on energy independence they have not yet achieved energy independence and you can say well the amount of energy that they're importing is only a small percentage but it's
not an irrelevant percentage it's not a percentage that they can operate without it will it will affect their economic growth it will affect their capabilities it all adds heads up. It's not something that you can just uh brush off and pretend is irrelevant because it isn't. And so what is the United States doing? They're number one, they continue this war on Iran in West Asia. And they continue creating the conditions under
which energy is not freely flowing from West Asia to the rest of Asia, which is where most of that energy goes. Doesn't go to the US primarily. It goes to the rest of Asia. goes to China, goes to Southeast Asia, goes to South Asia. And this is the heart, the economic drive that is pushing along multipolarism. And if it is being undermined by a war on energy exports in West Asia, that
is going to slow down the rise of multipolarism. Will it slow it down enough? Again, that is the question. We don't really know. The US is also striking at Russian energy through Ukraine just like it's US and Europeanmade designed and built drones transferred over to Ukraine hitting uh Russian data centers and Russian targets on the battlefield. It is also US European drones and US ISR that are enabling strikes on Russian energy
production infrastructure across the entire country. And all while this is going on, the US is proposing some sort of diesel deal with Russia. They've Chapter 7: The theater of diplomacy done things like this in the recent past, which is why I'm warning people, don't read too much into this USRussian deal. They have done this repeatedly and it has amounted to nothing. All it does is buy the US space and time to
reorganize what is a continuous proxy war against Russia and also a direct war against Iran and ultimately a conflict, a global conflict being waged against multipolarism itself. No one should read too much into the USRussian energy deal or sanction waiverss which have been going on since the US began the war. And then now if you look at this, this is the BBC. Trump announces deal for Russian diesel as Zalinsky criticizes gift
to Putin. This is all theatrics. Zalinsky does whatever the US tells him to do. He is a US proxy. He has zero control over the direction of Ukrainian politics. Even if he did, he wouldn't know where to start because he's not a politician. He's not a leader. He is literally an actor and he was put in that position specifically because he can pretend that he's doing things when in reality he isn't.
That's what an actor's job literally is to do. But look at this from back in May. US extends sanctions waiver on Russian oil to aid vulnerable countries. So the US has been playing games with energy supply and demand and prices for months and months. since it started its uh war or restarted its war against Iran, it has been playing these games to manipulate energy prices. It's not actually trying to alleviate the
the fundamentals causing the problem, which is US war and proxy war around the world. It's simply manipulating the prices so that it's controlled demolition of the global economy doesn't happen too quickly. They do not want to panic nations into taking emergency measures and organizing collectively against the US. They want to try to maintain the status quo for as long as possible to keep nations from making that flip from status quo to
purposefully organizing themselves against US aggression. That's what all of this is aimed to do. And then you have to ask yourself, why does Russia and Iran play along? This is the equivalent of two exhausted fighters leaning on each other in the middle of a fight. So you have the US is fighting Russia and Iran by proxy and directly. US is waging multiple proxy wars against Iranian allies and partners in West Asia
including uh Hezblah and Lebanon, Ansar and Yemen. US is also building up its military forces and priming its proxies in East Asia against China and it is overextending itself in the process. This is an all or nothing process and it is going to stretch itself to the limits. Meanwhile, nations like Russia and Iran, uh, targets of US aggression and aggression by proxy are also suffering losses. There's no doubt about this. You
you cannot wage a war like is happening in Ukraine and not be paying a steep cost to do so. And Iran cannot be fighting the United States in West Asia and not pay a steep price in doing so. They are obviously paying steep prices to do so. So, just like in a boxing match where you have two heavyweights fighting each other, in the beginning of Chapter 8: Boxing match metaphor the match,
they keep their distances and they try to land very carefully placed blows against one another. However, as the match goes on, they start running out of energy. And what you notice them doing is a process called clinching, where they're basically hanging on to each other to prevent the other from hitting them hard so that they can recoup energy ahead of delivering further blows either during that round or in the next round.
And if you're a five-year-old and you're watching these boxers basically hugging each other, you might ask, "Why are they hugging each other? They're supposed to be fighting. Why are they hugging? Are are are they friends now?" And the answer is no. They're clenching. This is a strategy that they use to conserve energy ahead of further fighting. And that's all the United States, Russia, Iran, and everyone else is doing. The US has
zero, and I said zero, intentions of permanently relieving sanctions and will only impose more as soon as is possible. The US has even put into position crippling sanctions against Russia and secondary sanctions against all of Russia's partners and allies specifically for when it is possible. Surely Russia knows this and is taking advantage of any temporary relief it can. It is like the other boxer in the fight. They are both exhausted. If
there's an opportunity to conserve energy and b their time, they will take it. They will clinch as well. The same can be said of any offer by the US to Iran or China to relieve sanctions, tariffs, or armed aggression. We've watched this process happen over and over and over again where the US will push as hard as it can with sanctions and tariffs against China and then once it reaches the limits,
it'll offer temporary relief. China will take that temporarily that temporary relief. Surely they know more are coming and that that that isn't the end of it, but they will take it when they can and Iran will take any advantage, any reprieve they can get so that they can also rearm and prepare for the next round. That is what's going on here. And people need to start seeing through this and and understanding
that no, this isn't progress towards peace. This is preparing for further war. In all other regards, the US continues to escalate against all three nations. So even as President Trump talks about a deal with Chapter 9: Ongoing escalation and theatre Russia, they're bombing the Yandex data centers, which I just talked about, they're also bombing oil hubs across Russia. Still, currently to this to this moment, Ukraine is still carrying out these strikes.
And who's enabling these strikes? uh from the New York Times, the Central Intelligence Agency, and the US military supercharged Ukrainian campaign of drone strikes on Russian oil facilities and tankers to hobble Mr. Putin's war machine. All of these strikes on Russian energy, either facilities or tankers. These are being carried out by the US intelligence agencies and US military. Even as the US pretends to to float the idea of diplomacy, it's still
continuing its wars and proxy wars and it's continuing preparations for further war down the road against Russia, Iran, but also against China. The question is who is making better use of this time? When the US floats diplomacy, it's simply buying time and space for the next round of aggression. And when Russia, China, and Iran agree to these temporary pauses, they're also looking for time to to rearm and prepare ahead of the
next round of hostilities. Who is making better use of this time? That's the question. That's the question we need to ask ourselves and try to answer to see who in the long term is going to come out on top. And in terms of this move improving diesel prices for Americans or Europeans, it won't. It could temporarily manipulate the prices in terms of speculation. It'll it'll drive the prices down a little bit
temporarily. But of course, we all know that speculation aside, the only thing that matters are the economic fundamentals unless the fundamentals causing high prices are addressed. And what are those fundamentals? US war and proxy war on Iran and Russia and the threatening of waterways from West Asia to the rest of Asia. Those are the fundamentals affecting energy prices. The only thing achieved is temporary market manipulation and relief if even and the
overall energy crisis will persist. It will only continue. And again, this is President Trump proposing some sort of deal now, recently this week. And this was back in May. Same thing over and over and over again. when are people going to to spot the pattern and catch on that this isn't any real diplomatic breakthrough. This is diplomatic subtuge ahead of continued conflict. That's what this is all about. And then of course
I just covered this most recent strike uh again Newsweek. Ukraine strikes major Russian oil hub hours after Trump's deal with Putin. And of course who's enabling these Ukrainian strikes? It is the United States. the US is giving them drones specifically to target all of these these facilities and uh through US media itself they admit that it's the central intelligence agency and the US military enabling these strikes. It's not Ukraine doing them
on their own. And now there's this whole narrative of President Trump is leaning on President Vladimir Zullinsky and Ukraine and there's this tension building between the two. This is an this is an old repetitive narrative that is meant to distract people from the reality that Ukraine is simply an extension of US foreign policy and that President Zullinsky is in charge of nothing. And all of this talk about elections and replacing Zalinsky,
this is all about perception management. This is how it has always done it and this is how it's doing it now. So I hope people can see and understand all of Chapter 10: Conclusion and call to action this. I hope people can see just how dangerous these strikes on Russian data centers actually are and the implications of the US being able to strike at the data centers in nuclear armed countries but
countries like Russia and China being unable to retaliate without striking data centers in the United States itself and how serious this is and how desperate the US is to maintain its primacy over the planet and the lengths it will go through to do so. And my ultimate warning that it is not about the US winning against Russia and China and Iran. It literally cannot. But the danger of the US using its
remaining power to simply destroy the world, destroy the global economy to disrupt things as much as possible with its remaining power. Not fight and win against these countries, but destroy everything their country's economies and technological progress depend on. So that on the other side of a cataclysmic event here on Earth, the United States believes, even if it's not true, believes that on the other side they will come out stronger. This is
my warning to people. It's not that the US is fighting and winning and they have all these policies and they cannot be stopped. I've never said that and that is not my meaning. My meaning is they know they cannot win and they're willing to go through desperate, dangerous measures to try to change the outcome despite all of their disadvantages. I'm going to leave it there. If you thought this video was useful,
please like and share. Think about subscribing. Under each and every single video of mine, there are places where you can like, share, and subscribe should be somewhere around here. There's a video description. You click on more. I have a summary of the video, all of the links that I reference in that video, as well as for other places you can find and follow my work. If you're waiting for videos to be
posted, please follow me on Telegram and on X. I usually am posting there at least once a day, no matter what else is going on. I do not monetize any of these social media platforms, and I do that in the hopes of minimizing the amount of ads that pop up in the face of my audience. If ads pop up, feel free to block or skip them. They're not helping me out at
all. Not in any shape, form, or way. Do not feel like you need to sit through them for my sake. If you do want to help support my work, please do so through buy me a coffee and also through Patreon. And here are the links under each video of mine right here. And to everyone who has supported my work, whether it's a one-time donation or donations monthtomonth or if you have no
resources to spare and all you can do is like, share, subscribe, post a comment, send me a news tip. All of that is greatly appreciated. All of that support is what makes this work continuously possible. I thank you sincerely for your help, no matter what form it takes. And as always, thank you for watching.
by Brian Berletic
The New Atlas
Oct 11, 2026 Russia-Ukraine
The US continues strikes on Russian data centers and energy production amid another round of false diplomatic and energy deals with Russia;
The US is degrading critical Russian capabilities both in terms of AI development and energy production/exports while suffering no losses to its own capabilities at home;
False diplomacy has allowed the US to buy time and space for future pressure and hostilities against not only Russia, but also Iran and China;
The only reason Russia, Iran, and China likely tolerate these brief pauses in hostility is because it affords them additional time as well to reorganize, rearm, and prepare for further tension;
The future will be decided based on who is using this time better;
References:
BBC - Russian search engine Yandex struggles after Ukrainian strikes on data centres (Oct. 10, 2026):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c68...
TED - The AI Revolution Is Underhyped | Eric Schmidt | TED (May 2025):
• The AI Revolution Is Underhyped | Eric Sch...
France 24 - Ukraine: How a kamikaze drone partially operated by AI is attacking Russian convoys (Jun 2026):
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20...
BBC - Trump announces deal for Russian diesel as Zelensky calls it a gift to Putin (Oct. 11, 2026):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm1...
Reuters - US extends sanctions waiver on Russian oil to aid vulnerable countries (May 2026):
https://www.reuters.com/business/ener...
Newsweek - Ukraine Strikes Major Russian Oil Hub Hours After Trump’s Deal With Putin (Oct. 10, 2026):
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-stri...
NYT - The Separation: Inside the Unraveling U.S.-Ukraine Partnership (Dec. 2025):
https://archive.ph/8s49D#selection-77...
Where to Find My Work:
Website: https://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/brianlovethailand
X (Twitter): / brianjberletic
Rumble (YouTube alternative): https://rumble.com/c/c-1459863
Transcript
Chapter 1: The US war on multipolarism Today is October 12th, 2026. I want to talk about the expanding US war on multipolarism. Despite the facade of diplomacy, the US is once again floating publicly in an attempt to buy itself space and time to to continue this very war on multipolarism. I want to warn people against buying into this. I don't know why at this point anyone would.
This is just the latest iteration in a repeated cycle of floating diplomacy to buy space and time ahead of continued aggression not just against Iran in West Asia, but also the US proxy war against Russia and Ukraine and of course continued preparations for proxy or direct war against China and East Asia. I want to go over a couple of social media posts that I have made Chapter 2: Targeting data centers since
my last video. I want to talk first and foremost about this strike on a data center in Russia. These data centers are the backbone of artificial intelligence. This is how artificial intelligence is empowered. It is empowered through computing and this computing is done in massive data centers in each respective country leading artificial intelligence or leveraging artificial intelligence. We have data centers all across the United States, all across Russia, and of course
all across China. And striking these data centers is very similar to say if you wanted to stop the development of a nation's nuclear power, you would and especially nuclear capabilities, nuclear weapons, nuclear power, you would strike at the the laboratories or the the power plants where nuclear material was being made. And if you want to stop artificial intelligence, you strike at the data centers. And that is exactly what the United States
is now doing, of course, by proxy. And this is simply uh a trial run for what they would ultimately want to do visav China. Now, I'm going to go over this real quick and then I'm going to share with you a very very disturbing video that was published last year, May 2025, and I will show you how it all comes together and how the the very people talking about bombing data centers
last year are the ones directly involved in doing so this year. So, USD directed Ukrainian drone strikes on on Russian Yandex data center have wider implications. It isn't just another high-value target that they just decided to strike at to hurt the the overall Russian economy. This is a very precise strike for a very precise reason. US has made no secret its desire to dominate the future by dominating key technology shaping it,
especially artificial intelligence. I will refer to it as AI. I think everyone knows that. But just in case, Eric Schmidt of Google, currently enabling Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia, had publicly discussed quote unquote China. I don't think he said China by name, but he was obviously inferring China or say Russia in his talk. I will show you that talk here in just a minute. Striking at US data centers to prevent a
gamechanging breakthrough. However, his comments were pure projection, meaning the US was proposing striking data centers in other nations, especially China, but also Russia. Through the vast network of proxies the US maintains worldwide, and the failure of multipolarism to defend against or roll back US political capture, the US can freely strike at data centers, slowing AI development in these targeted countries while advancing AI at home free of threat. Now, let's listen to
Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, right now directly involved in the US Chapter 3: Eric Schmidt and AI projection war on Russia in Ukraine. And let's listen to what he said last year, May 2025, 4 minutesabout data centers. You don't have to feed them except electricity. So, that's good. Second, the slope is like this. Well, as we get closer to super intelligence, the slope goes like this. If you get there first,
you dastardly person, you're never never going to be able to catch me. I will not be able to catch you. And I've given you the tools to reinvent the world and in particular destroy me. That's how my brain, Mr. Evil, is going to think. Okay. So, he's obviously talking about pure nations like Russia and China. And he's talking about how AI will enable a nation to achieve a pinnacle in technology that
will that will essentially give it the keys to controlling the future which is is openly what the US talks about. The whole project meridian is about how to you use AI to give the US back the military superiority that it has enjoyed over this whole 21st century up until now. And that's what they're aiming to do with AI. and they know they cannot win this AI race, especially against China. And so
he's going to talk about bombing data centers as if the US is inevitably going to win the AI race and other nations are going to try to bomb US data centers, but he's actually explaining the logic of the US bombing data centers in places like Russia and China. And now, right now, the US is bombing data centers in Russia. So, what am I going to do? The first sabotage, the first thing
I'm going to do is try to steal all your code. and you've prevented that because you're good and you you were good. So, you're [snorts] still good at Google. Second, [laughter] that then I'm going to infiltrate you with humans. Well, you've got good protections against that. You know, we don't have spies. So, what do I do? Hm. I'm going to go in and I'm going to change your model. I'm going to
modify it. I'm going to actually screw you up to get me. So, I'm one day ahead of you and you're so good. I can't do that. What's my next choice? Bomb your data center. Wow. Now, do you think I'm insane? These conversations are occurring around nuclear opponents today in our world. There are legitimate people saying the only solution to this problem is preeemption. Now, I just told you that you, Mr. Good,
are about to have the keys to control the entire world, both in terms of economic dominance, innovation, surveillance, whatever it is that you care about. I have to prevent that. We don't have any language in our society. The foreign policy people have not thought about this and this is coming. When is it coming? Probably 5 years. Okay. And so that's the end of that that part of the discussion. And as he
was talking about bombing data centers, I switched over to news stories Chapter 4: Asymmetrical warfare analysis of the US through Ukraine bombing data centers. And they pointed out how when they say Ukrainian drones striking Russian data centers, they're talking about US and European designed, built, transferred over to Ukraine, uh drones using US intelligence surveillance reconnaissance, ISR, to strike these targets all across Russia to circumvent their air defenses and to strike these
targets. These are US strikes on Russian data centers. And as I've pointed out and others have pointed out over the last year or so, the the advent of these AIdriven drones, striking targets, striking Russian targets, these are US-made drones, and they were built and designed and funded specifically by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt. And so he's he's he's telling you by by reverse psychology, he's telling you this is what the US
is going to do or you could call it projection. Maybe he's telling you what the US is actually going to do and why the US is losing the AI race. They're you they're losing the race in general for US control, US primacy over the globe. They're losing they understand it is it's not just AI. It's not just energy. It's not just manufacturing. It is the combination of all of this. And so
the United States is attacking all of this. And now speaking of energy. So so let's just finish up with AI here first. The US will continue expanding strikes on Russian data centers and continue preparing to likewise destroy Chinese centers by proxies unless serious changes are made deterring and defending against such threats. In other words, Russia can turn Ukraine into an abandoned parking lot in response to its data centers being destroyed. But
the US, who is ultimately behind Ukraine and all other proxies fighting Russia, will suffer zero damage or danger to its own data centers and the development they enable. the development of AI that they enable that will be used by the US to try to maintain its primacy to try to top the rise of multipolarism to prevent nations like Russia and China and Iran and uh the rest of bricks and everyone in
between from trying to build a balance of power between nations and prevent one single nation like the US from dominating over all others. Dominating over and dictating to all others. The US is waging war on Russia and degrading Russian capabilities without any fear or any setbacks or serious dangers to itself. People constantly talk about look at the damage that's being done to Russia. But Russia is doing so much more damage to
Ukraine. From an American point of view, it's irrelevant. That's the whole point of having a proxy is for them to take the damage and for you to to use all of the benefits from the ongoing war. So you are degrading Russian AI capabilities in development. You are suffering no damage to your own data centers. They are completely unharmed. They're not there's 10 minutesnot even a discussion about targeting US data centers. Instead,
Russia's bombing data centers in Ukraine. What difference does that make for the United States? It makes none. And so this is the the strategic lay of this conflict. I'm trying to point out the actual strategic way versus how it's presented in the Chapter 5: Strategic material reality mainstream media and how a lot of uh people in the alternative media fall into this trap of trying to analyze it in the way that
it's framed by the western media. You cannot do that. You have to go to material reality and see how it is actually framed in reality to win. And if no real retaliation is carried out against US itself, Russia and others like China must make sure they're capable of suffering these these losses and are still able to prevail over the US despite the asymmetrical advantage proxy war gives us. In other words, Russia,
China, Iran, the rest of bricks, the entire multipolar world, they need to make sure that they have a strategy to continue advancing far beyond the the advances of the US. ensure that their AI capabilities continue advancing far beyond those of the US. No matter what the US does, if you're not going to retaliate against the US directly, you need to make sure that no matter what the US does, no matter how
many losses you suffer, you can still come out at the end the winner. That's what you have to make sure. And at this point, I don't know. I don't have all the metrics in front of me. I don't see what Moscow, Beijing, Tran, uh the rest of bricks, I don't see what they see. They have access to information that I do not. Maybe they are confident that no matter what the US
does to data centers in Russia or how they try to threaten data centers in China, that they are all ultimately going to succeed against the United States. Maybe that's the calculation. Maybe that's why they're just biting their time and uh having this all play out because they are confident in the end they will win. But that is a big if and this is why I'm attracting attention to this topic so people
can see it's not that clearcut. Chapter 6: Energy warfare and influence And now speaking of other areas of importance being attacked by the US in an attempt to undermine the rise of the multipolar world let's talk about energy. Energy is directly connected to AI because AI depends on data centers. Data centers require huge amounts of energy. This is energy that competes with the rest of the population industry of the public in
any given nation. China has a huge huge amount of energy that it is using and constantly developing toward this end. Other nations are doing likewise. uh but if the United States is attacking at say we always talk about Chinese energy independence they are working on energy independence they have not yet achieved energy independence and you can say well the amount of energy that they're importing is only a small percentage but it's
not an irrelevant percentage it's not a percentage that they can operate without it will it will affect their economic growth it will affect their capabilities it all adds heads up. It's not something that you can just uh brush off and pretend is irrelevant because it isn't. And so what is the United States doing? They're number one, they continue this war on Iran in West Asia. And they continue creating the conditions under
which energy is not freely flowing from West Asia to the rest of Asia, which is where most of that energy goes. Doesn't go to the US primarily. It goes to the rest of Asia. goes to China, goes to Southeast Asia, goes to South Asia. And this is the heart, the economic drive that is pushing along multipolarism. And if it is being undermined by a war on energy exports in West Asia, that
is going to slow down the rise of multipolarism. Will it slow it down enough? Again, that is the question. We don't really know. The US is also striking at Russian energy through Ukraine just like it's US and Europeanmade designed and built drones transferred over to Ukraine hitting uh Russian data centers and Russian targets on the battlefield. It is also US European drones and US ISR that are enabling strikes on Russian energy
production infrastructure across the entire country. And all while this is going on, the US is proposing some sort of diesel deal with Russia. They've Chapter 7: The theater of diplomacy done things like this in the recent past, which is why I'm warning people, don't read too much into this USRussian deal. They have done this repeatedly and it has amounted to nothing. All it does is buy the US space and time to
reorganize what is a continuous proxy war against Russia and also a direct war against Iran and ultimately a conflict, a global conflict being waged against multipolarism itself. No one should read too much into the USRussian energy deal or sanction waiverss which have been going on since the US began the war. And then now if you look at this, this is the BBC. Trump announces deal for Russian diesel as Zalinsky criticizes gift
to Putin. This is all theatrics. Zalinsky does whatever the US tells him to do. He is a US proxy. He has zero control over the direction of Ukrainian politics. Even if he did, he wouldn't know where to start because he's not a politician. He's not a leader. He is literally an actor and he was put in that position specifically because he can pretend that he's doing things when in reality he isn't.
That's what an actor's job literally is to do. But look at this from back in May. US extends sanctions waiver on Russian oil to aid vulnerable countries. So the US has been playing games with energy supply and demand and prices for months and months. since it started its uh war or restarted its war against Iran, it has been playing these games to manipulate energy prices. It's not actually trying to alleviate the
the fundamentals causing the problem, which is US war and proxy war around the world. It's simply manipulating the prices so that it's controlled demolition of the global economy doesn't happen too quickly. They do not want to panic nations into taking emergency measures and organizing collectively against the US. They want to try to maintain the status quo for as long as possible to keep nations from making that flip from status quo to
purposefully organizing themselves against US aggression. That's what all of this is aimed to do. And then you have to ask yourself, why does Russia and Iran play along? This is the equivalent of two exhausted fighters leaning on each other in the middle of a fight. So you have the US is fighting Russia and Iran by proxy and directly. US is waging multiple proxy wars against Iranian allies and partners in West Asia
including uh Hezblah and Lebanon, Ansar and Yemen. US is also building up its military forces and priming its proxies in East Asia against China and it is overextending itself in the process. This is an all or nothing process and it is going to stretch itself to the limits. Meanwhile, nations like Russia and Iran, uh, targets of US aggression and aggression by proxy are also suffering losses. There's no doubt about this. You
you cannot wage a war like is happening in Ukraine and not be paying a steep cost to do so. And Iran cannot be fighting the United States in West Asia and not pay a steep price in doing so. They are obviously paying steep prices to do so. So, just like in a boxing match where you have two heavyweights fighting each other, in the beginning of Chapter 8: Boxing match metaphor the match,
they keep their distances and they try to land very carefully placed blows against one another. However, as the match goes on, they start running out of energy. And what you notice them doing is a process called clinching, where they're basically hanging on to each other to prevent the other from hitting them hard so that they can recoup energy ahead of delivering further blows either during that round or in the next round.
And if you're a five-year-old and you're watching these boxers basically hugging each other, you might ask, "Why are they hugging each other? They're supposed to be fighting. Why are they hugging? Are are are they friends now?" And the answer is no. They're clenching. This is a strategy that they use to conserve energy ahead of further fighting. And that's all the United States, Russia, Iran, and everyone else is doing. The US has
zero, and I said zero, intentions of permanently relieving sanctions and will only impose more as soon as is possible. The US has even put into position crippling sanctions against Russia and secondary sanctions against all of Russia's partners and allies specifically for when it is possible. Surely Russia knows this and is taking advantage of any temporary relief it can. It is like the other boxer in the fight. They are both exhausted. If
there's an opportunity to conserve energy and b their time, they will take it. They will clinch as well. The same can be said of any offer by the US to Iran or China to relieve sanctions, tariffs, or armed aggression. We've watched this process happen over and over and over again where the US will push as hard as it can with sanctions and tariffs against China and then once it reaches the limits,
it'll offer temporary relief. China will take that temporarily that temporary relief. Surely they know more are coming and that that that isn't the end of it, but they will take it when they can and Iran will take any advantage, any reprieve they can get so that they can also rearm and prepare for the next round. That is what's going on here. And people need to start seeing through this and and understanding
that no, this isn't progress towards peace. This is preparing for further war. In all other regards, the US continues to escalate against all three nations. So even as President Trump talks about a deal with Chapter 9: Ongoing escalation and theatre Russia, they're bombing the Yandex data centers, which I just talked about, they're also bombing oil hubs across Russia. Still, currently to this to this moment, Ukraine is still carrying out these strikes.
And who's enabling these strikes? uh from the New York Times, the Central Intelligence Agency, and the US military supercharged Ukrainian campaign of drone strikes on Russian oil facilities and tankers to hobble Mr. Putin's war machine. All of these strikes on Russian energy, either facilities or tankers. These are being carried out by the US intelligence agencies and US military. Even as the US pretends to to float the idea of diplomacy, it's still
continuing its wars and proxy wars and it's continuing preparations for further war down the road against Russia, Iran, but also against China. The question is who is making better use of this time? When the US floats diplomacy, it's simply buying time and space for the next round of aggression. And when Russia, China, and Iran agree to these temporary pauses, they're also looking for time to to rearm and prepare ahead of the
next round of hostilities. Who is making better use of this time? That's the question. That's the question we need to ask ourselves and try to answer to see who in the long term is going to come out on top. And in terms of this move improving diesel prices for Americans or Europeans, it won't. It could temporarily manipulate the prices in terms of speculation. It'll it'll drive the prices down a little bit
temporarily. But of course, we all know that speculation aside, the only thing that matters are the economic fundamentals unless the fundamentals causing high prices are addressed. And what are those fundamentals? US war and proxy war on Iran and Russia and the threatening of waterways from West Asia to the rest of Asia. Those are the fundamentals affecting energy prices. The only thing achieved is temporary market manipulation and relief if even and the
overall energy crisis will persist. It will only continue. And again, this is President Trump proposing some sort of deal now, recently this week. And this was back in May. Same thing over and over and over again. when are people going to to spot the pattern and catch on that this isn't any real diplomatic breakthrough. This is diplomatic subtuge ahead of continued conflict. That's what this is all about. And then of course
I just covered this most recent strike uh again Newsweek. Ukraine strikes major Russian oil hub hours after Trump's deal with Putin. And of course who's enabling these Ukrainian strikes? It is the United States. the US is giving them drones specifically to target all of these these facilities and uh through US media itself they admit that it's the central intelligence agency and the US military enabling these strikes. It's not Ukraine doing them
on their own. And now there's this whole narrative of President Trump is leaning on President Vladimir Zullinsky and Ukraine and there's this tension building between the two. This is an this is an old repetitive narrative that is meant to distract people from the reality that Ukraine is simply an extension of US foreign policy and that President Zullinsky is in charge of nothing. And all of this talk about elections and replacing Zalinsky,
this is all about perception management. This is how it has always done it and this is how it's doing it now. So I hope people can see and understand all of Chapter 10: Conclusion and call to action this. I hope people can see just how dangerous these strikes on Russian data centers actually are and the implications of the US being able to strike at the data centers in nuclear armed countries but
countries like Russia and China being unable to retaliate without striking data centers in the United States itself and how serious this is and how desperate the US is to maintain its primacy over the planet and the lengths it will go through to do so. And my ultimate warning that it is not about the US winning against Russia and China and Iran. It literally cannot. But the danger of the US using its
remaining power to simply destroy the world, destroy the global economy to disrupt things as much as possible with its remaining power. Not fight and win against these countries, but destroy everything their country's economies and technological progress depend on. So that on the other side of a cataclysmic event here on Earth, the United States believes, even if it's not true, believes that on the other side they will come out stronger. This is
my warning to people. It's not that the US is fighting and winning and they have all these policies and they cannot be stopped. I've never said that and that is not my meaning. My meaning is they know they cannot win and they're willing to go through desperate, dangerous measures to try to change the outcome despite all of their disadvantages. I'm going to leave it there. If you thought this video was useful,
please like and share. Think about subscribing. Under each and every single video of mine, there are places where you can like, share, and subscribe should be somewhere around here. There's a video description. You click on more. I have a summary of the video, all of the links that I reference in that video, as well as for other places you can find and follow my work. If you're waiting for videos to be
posted, please follow me on Telegram and on X. I usually am posting there at least once a day, no matter what else is going on. I do not monetize any of these social media platforms, and I do that in the hopes of minimizing the amount of ads that pop up in the face of my audience. If ads pop up, feel free to block or skip them. They're not helping me out at
all. Not in any shape, form, or way. Do not feel like you need to sit through them for my sake. If you do want to help support my work, please do so through buy me a coffee and also through Patreon. And here are the links under each video of mine right here. And to everyone who has supported my work, whether it's a one-time donation or donations monthtomonth or if you have no
resources to spare and all you can do is like, share, subscribe, post a comment, send me a news tip. All of that is greatly appreciated. All of that support is what makes this work continuously possible. I thank you sincerely for your help, no matter what form it takes. And as always, thank you for watching.
-
admin
- Site Admin
- Posts: 41616
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am
Re: PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE
Yemen LEVELS Riyadh, Iran Hits SIX Ships Then Trump DID THIS | Patrick Henningsen & Daniel Davis
Danny Haiphong
92 minutes ago #yemen #trump #israel
Patrick Henningsen and Daniel Davis break down the stunning developments in the Saudi-Yemen war that have the US AND Israel moving toward all out war. Meanwhile, Yemen and Iran have both stepped up their strike targets dramatically as Riyadh burns overnight and a record number of tankers get taken out in the Strait of Hormuz. What does all of this mean from both a military and geopolitical perspective? We traverse the biggest flashpoints in the ongoing war between US-led unipolarity and the rising multipolar world now finding big momentum in West Asia.
Transcript
Chapter 1: Escalation in Yemen Welcome back to the show everyone. As you can see, I'm joined by Patrick Hennington of 21st Century Wire and Daniel Davis of Deep Dive with Daniel Davis to go over the latest developments. Well, gentlemen, I wanted to begin with Yemen. Uh, Riad has absolutely been getting leveled, not just its airports, uh, but across the country of Saudi Arabia as a whole. This
was King Khaled airport last night. Uh despite claims of Saudi interceptions of Yemeni ballistic missile strikes, uh Saudi infrastructure continues to take a beating. Here are more images of what's going on. Saudi Arabia though has been trying to hide this information from the world. It has actually detained US citizens for taking video of uh Yemen drone in missile strikes. Now, in retaliation, response I should say, because this is Saudi aggression, uh,
war plananes have started to hit Yemen oil infrastructure, which Ensurala has said will come with a heavy price in response. We may be getting Donald Trump made a comment earlier today, but Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel seem to be really pushing to try to enter this war. They are in talks with NBS uh to uh do just that. strange enough because they didn't really need permission last time they conducted strikes. Ansurala uh
is saying that the United States should be very careful about a swift and painful response if it should get involved as Trump has warned that he is thinking about getting involved and of course six tankers in the last have been hit in the straight of by Iran as uh the Trump administration is on right now. It seems like a campaign trail. Uh but nevertheless, Patrick, how about we start with you? What's
your reaction in response to what's going on right now? Uh this war keeps on getting bigger and it seems like it's about to expand even further as uh Saudi Arabia shows no signs of tapping out. No. Uh it looks like uh Danny that Saudi is uh got their finger on the trigger uh but uh holding a gun to their own head. uh they're in the process of committing suicide. Uh if they
do, and you have to take an Allah's warning seriously at this point, I mean, they they don't mince words, they don't bluff, there's not false threats, they will hit the most sensitive Aramco oil facilities. Uh it's guaranteed. Uh so if you know paralyzing your air travel at your country's largest airport isn't enough uh you want to go on to the the biggest and most sensitive Aramco facilities, they will hit them and
probably based on their previous successes and targeting it's going to do significant damage. And you know as as many experts have pointed out and uh I've looked into this over the years as well very sophisticated uh these pipelines and the array of how the networks in terms of oil distribution refineries is it's very meticulously uh and well put together in Saudi Arabia but it it can be very expensive time consuming to
repair. Um you're talking about uh you know pipelines, pump stations that go across some of the most hostile terrain uh in that country. Uh Yemen, uh the Yemenes are very well aware of this. Um so it's not a question of getting them back up online uh in a few hours. In some cases, it could take weeks or months. Uh so you know this it's an existential moment for the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia. They've chosen wisely from unwisely, pardon me, from the very beginning of this. And I don't see any improvement in their decision-making quite frankly. So, I'd be very very concerned right now for anybody in Saudi Arabia or who is allied with Saudi Arabia as to how this is going to come out. Yeah. And Daniel, this is Donald Trump's response. This is how he's responding to everything. He said, "The Houthis are behaving
very badly. I thought they learned their lesson a year ago when the Chapter 2: Analyzing the regional war hell out of them." He said somebody should explain to them that I'm not running the elections. I've already won a massive landslide. Uh there's after the elections and I will never but there there I'll be after the elections and I'll never forget referring to Iran. But he said they're behaving very badly. Daniel, how
have you what have you made of the US response? There are serious talks supposedly of the US getting involved. Uh but maybe you can correct the record here about what Donald Trump is saying and any reactions you have to what Patrick said. Well, look, I mean, you talk about learning lessons. I think they did learn the lessons. They kicked our ass. I mean, let's just be blunt about it. First, they they
smoked us uh with uh during the Biden administration when they tried to shut down the Houthies and and keep the Red Sea traffic open up in support of Israel uh during the first part of that war. And what did we get for our efforts? We spent I don't even know some number of billions of dollars, all kinds of missiles that we shot, the interceptors we we got rid of. Uh lost a
bunch of uh uh Reaper drones, I think seven of them during the Biden administration portion. Couple of airplanes got locked off the the decks. A couple of F-18s literally lost all into the sea off the deck because we were avoiding uh missiles that were uh being shot at some of our aircraft carriers. So, yeah, I think they did learn the lesson. The lesson is that we can handle you when you're trying
to project power into the region with the kind of power you got. We can hit it. And you talked about in a narrow straight there in the in the Red Sea in a narrow path, etc. um or we they're showing that they can hit anything that uh is in the Middle East as uh Patrick was alluding to as you showed on the opening segment here is that with with all of the
the air defense capabilities that Saudi Arabia has, all the stuff they bought from us, uh all the stuff they've got from other P forces and the the centrality of the King Khaled airport for crying out loud. I mean, that is a a central target and they can't protect it. I don't know how much 6 minuteswas actually shot down, but it doesn't matter. It only matters what gets through and it matters that
they can't stop more. So to Patrick's point when he said he doesn't think that the Houthies bluff what they say they have done um and what they have attempted to do they have succeeded at. So if if you want to keep going down this path, whether it's the United States or whether it's Saudi Arabia, and saying I'm not going to deal with these guys, then what you're saying is I'm going to
endure more punishment on our on our oil facilities because that's the that's the central the the the fulcrum for pressuring Saudi Arabia because if you can't stop the h the main airport, if you can't stop hitting a Ramco facilities, it's literally the lifeblood of your country. And I think the the NSRock can suck down however many missiles you want to shoot. I mean they did for what at seven eight years I
think from 2015 up to 2022 when they it's time to cease and I I who knows how many thousands of air strikes there were never brought them to their knees. They're certainly not going to do it now with a number of other air strikes. It'll kill some people. It'll blow some stuff up. But these people show they are resilient and they know how to endure this kind of stuff. And there's a
cost to doing that too. You I think they've already lost a couple of aircraft if I'm not mistaken. They could lose some more, but it's it's never going to be enough. You can't bomb your way to victory just like the US can't bomb their way to victory in Iran. Neither can Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is desperately trying to get anybody they can to join him on the ground whether that's the US
uh Pakistan uh Turkey apparently at least publicly there's uh Israel wanted to help but Muhammad bin Salman this morning at least publicly again said we told them no because he he's concerned about the impact of his people and that might be legitimate they may not want that kind of help but the problem is if you can't do this militarily and and you can't stop the attacks on your infrastructure, then you're either
going to have to say we're going to be defeated or we're going to have to make a deal with Ansarah, which is not out of character for the Middle East. You they can do this. People have done it for centuries. It's not out of character. They just don't want to. But the question is, how much pain do they have to have heaped on them before they finally do something? Because I don't
see any other way out that's going to have them on the top. Yeah. You know, Patrick, uh there's something very familiar about what's happening in this uh I guess you could say Yemen Saudi war, the Saudi aggression on Yemen. And uh you know, we have this by the Los Angeles Times saying that there's a grim choice as Chapter 3: Geopolitical narrative control Daniel just put out there as Onsurella intensifies attacks and
the grim choice is either they give up or they continue fighting both of which will have consequences. And also I remember during strikes on Israel by Iran very similar reports of people getting arrested and this is also true across the Gulf uh where any footage that was attempted to be taken uh was heavily sought after pursued by authorities in places like Bahrain and of course Tel Aviv. Um and of course uh
this also runs parallel to what Iran is doing where they're they continue to hit ships in the straight of Hormuz and uh the United States kind of like Saudi Arabia seem to have no answer to it. So what do you make of uh how this conflict right now this war is shaping up in the larger regional context and geopolitical context? Well, I think we've we've outlined the uh you know, the military
uh uh theater pretty well and uh in your previous programs, Danny, as well as on uh Daniel Davis's uh program with all his amazing guests. That's pretty clear. What's different about this one, though, is this this the information war. the information war uh for this is is trying to take shape and it's hugely problematic because the west don't have command and control over the 10 minutesfacts and over the narrative and the
framing on this and it's to me an extraordinary thing uh if you look across uh social media just to kind of gauge public opinion globally uh you know who would have thought that the world community would be applauding uh uh Allah after they attacked uh King Hyd International Airport in Riyad because that's kind of what's happening. In other words, nobody's shedding a tear for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The world has
worked out that they are in the wrong. They're the aggressor. They're it's a theocratic dictatorship. Okay, for starters, but a lot of people have jumped to the defense of and politicians, many of whom uh have interests have said, "We stand with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia against this Yemeni aggression." I mean, what world are we on here? Saudi started this war. It's the same type of thing of the United States decrying
Iranian aggression against US troops in the region, Donald Trump and Rubio. They're putting our servicemen uh in harm's way, you know, at risk uh in the region. We have to defend our servicemen who started the war in the first place. It was Israel and the US. The same thing here. So you can't really make the argument that uh Saudi or sorry that the Ansarah aka the Houthis the Yemenes are in the
wrong for attacking uh Riad International Airport because Saudi Arabia have attacked SA airport 227 times over the last give or take 11 years. So it's not an argument and it's not a civilian target uh because uh uh the international airport in Riyad uh is very much involved in a lot of logistics operations. Um they are uh it's it's like for like Saudi Arabia have hit without any uh compunction hit civilian targets.
They've been running a tarvation siege. So any western commentators that are that are saying that oh uh the answer in Allah shouldn't be escalating this war this is not a serious argument and I would I would argue a lot these people are propagandists because they're trying to reframe this for a western audience the the Americans and Saudis in the UAE have have starved the Yemeni people do do people in the west
realize that this has killed hundreds of thousands of of Yemen It is one of the worst war crimes. But because the western media didn't anoint this as an official tragedy, most people don't even know about it. You know, and the United States has done well to sort of have no accountability whatsoever in their role. Saudi Arabia, forget it. So, uh, it's it's that's really important. The the other thing you got to
realize is Saudi Arabia have the most incredible online bot army. I don't know if people 13 minuteshave paid attention to this over the years, but they're they're in there like a shot. Even if you have a small account and a comment thread comes in commenting on this or criticizing uh the the kingdom, they have AI detection and they're in there with their bot accounts. So my they've been swarming my comments and
I'm already throttled on X, but I'm still besieged by Saudi bots. But within the country, there's no criticism of the government of Muhammad bin Salman. it is totally not allowed, totally forbidden. So, when you're talking about Danny, how they've masked over the uh the coverage of uh especially what's happened with these attacks or at the airport or any other sign of weakness or sign of uh uh uh negligence or just incompetence
by the regime, you won't see it if you're in the in the Gulf or in Saudi Arabia. You you watch their news coverage, everything's going great. They're they've got the Houthies on the run. It's it's like it's incredible. So, they've got their own sort of Baghdad Bob kind of media um plan there in Saudi Arabia. It is incredible the amount of censorship there. So, but it's all leaked out globally through independent
media, through international media, and they can't bottle it this time. So, it's that that's that's the thing I think is extraordinary. Chapter 4: The crisis of Saudi leadership Yeah. What else is extraordinary too that's not being mentioned is uh with that airport attack at the international airport in Riyad, Saudi Arabia had actually for two weeks just stopped uh their early warning system of any missile strikes and did not uh evacuate the
airport despite evacuation warnings by onsala. So now those early warning systems are back on because Reuters started to report on it uh two weeks late. But nevertheless, Daniel, you know, the Trump administration, Netanyahu, and uh the Saudi regime, they're all saying the same thing now. It's aggressive. They're uh they're the problem. They're the ones who are committing terror attacks. What does that tell you? Well, it tells me they're just uh they're
stuck in in a single playbook. I mean, they they they use that for literally every conflict they have. they just just cut and paste, you know, which country we're talking about today. The rest of it is virtually identical. Uh problem is kind of also alluding to what Patrick said, it it's just not playing anymore because for a while people would believe a lot of that stuff, but now they're seeing with their
own eyes. They're saying hang on because you can't stop these attacks on your most important facilities, the East West Pipeline or Ramco facilities themselves, the the main airport, your capital city. Um, and then we also see down there that you have hit some of the Saudi, I'm sorry, some of the Yemen Yemenes areas, Ansarah with the Houthis, and people are going, "Wait a minute. If these guys are just the Houthi rebels,
as we always called them, how is it that your modern military with the, you know, modern American fighter jets and help from the Great Britain, you know, with the some of the refueling, etc., and all these bombs you have, why can you not win any of this stuff?" So people are just aren't paying attention to to what those claims are anymore. They just don't matter. But then you also look at some
of the bigger issues more on the political realm and you're saying why is it also that nobody's coming to Saudi Arabia's help? Why is the US not coming to help them out? Why is uh why is Pakistan not after this Mecca Accords? Why is Turkey not? Why is nobody's coming to their help? And now then that is also being seen domestically inside the house of Saud and inside the the the architecture
uh politically uh within the Saudi Arabia itself. And I I think Patrick even mentioned on my show here recently uh there's a lot of sore feelings from within the uh power structures in Saudi Arabia from what Ben Salman did to them. I think it was in 2020, if I'm not mistaken, where he locked a bunch of them into a hotel in Riad and basically tortured a lot of them to get them
to do what he wanted. Uh, a lot of them didn't forget about all of that. And so now then they see, okay, you can't bring anybody to our help. You can't defeat the the Houthies here. Why did you start this war? You can't win. And if this keeps going on and we get more of our facilities hit, dis destroying our ability to even make revenue, pushing it back years to get corrected,
maybe we need new leadership in the in Saudi Arabia. Maybe Sman needs to be shown the exit or some other exit door, whatever. So I think that the actual the House of Saud is in real trouble right now. U you know this this is something that's is going on part of the the region as well and it's it has ramifications and reverberations even into the Iran war and what may be coming
next because Iran has also said if we are attacked again and they said I think this was just yesterday by uh General Resay he said yeah Saudi Arabia may also be in a target so they may be getting it from a couple of different sides and 18 minutesthey can't stop any of it so they're they're in a real real serious problem here you you mentioned this at the earlier that uh when
you show one headline that they're in a real pickle because if they give in to toss Allah, they're in one trouble. If they don't, they're in separate. But listen, you got to say one here is an existential crisis. If you don't make a deal, which again can be done effectively within Arab traditions, if you don't make that kind of a deal here, you're going to suffer loss and you may literally be
defeated from both without and within. So I think that he better start reading the tea leaves pretty quickly if he wants to stay in power and make some kind of a deal with the with the alah. Daniel staying on you for just a second. Do you find that do you see the United States getting involved more directly? We know of course Sentcom is all over Saudi Arabia and Riad and helping the
regime in some ways, but do you believe that they'll get more involved? The Trump administration has uh essentially done what it usually does, which is bluff a lot and talk a lot, but so far no action. What do you think? Yeah, that I hope that continues on. The talk a lot but no do. Uh and Bluff, I'm rarely for it. But in this particular case, if it's between Bluff or actually making
good on your promises, list don't. Uh but he's also been very careful about not even making any real promises only that we're thinking about it. We're looking into it. We might do it. They behave very badly. You know, stuff like that, which is not even really implying anything. And my my instinct would normally tell me we're not going to do this because it would fool hearty, especially because we may be on
the verge of doing something that's really foolhardy, like restarting the war against Iran. And if you're thinking about doing that, the last thing you want to do is further disperse your power on the eve of doing something stupid over there by doing something stupid over here and then you're splitting your forces, which means you're most likely going to fail in both places. So, I would imagine that Trump would not do that
for that reason. But unfortunately with this administration, with this uh man being in the White House right now, he's done a lot of things that were irrational and counterproductive uh and and clearly self-evidently a bad decision, yet they were they were actually done. And that's been done a number of times, not the least of which was after the the memorandum of understanding was signed last June. I mean, he had a golden
ticket to get out. He had a golden ticket back in midFebruary or the latter part of February before this war started with the Omani mediation that he could have had a tremendous deal that would have given him a great political victory without war. But he took he threw that in the trash and then he threw the one in the trash in theouou which after discovering you were you got into a war
you couldn't win and then here's this great way to get out where you at least get to save some face. and he didn't take that either. And so now here we are again and he shouldn't do this but I Chapter 5: Regional shifts and power dynamics mean he's made some really bad decisions. So unfortunately I can't rule anything out. Yeah. Well Patrick uh you know to you your your thoughts on anything
Daniel said and uh you know this uh idea that we can't rule anything out when it comes to the Trump administration. But this war has gotten bigger and this one that we're talking about right now on the Yemen front is going to get bigger. Uh but the United States is and Iran just said that they are preparing for a bigger war. They might even go on the ground. They have about 400,000
troops ready to uh uh do ground incursions if the US restarts. So obviously there is alarm and alert in Iran about war starting again. So this that that that doesn't when I look at the region that sounds like a a powder keg, a mess and uh it all seems to be pointing to huge consequences for the United States and the Trump administration in particular two and a half weeks away from an
election. Well, when when when Daniel was uh rightly pointing out just the erraticism and the in seemingly uh indecisive nature of of the president and the constant bluffing and uh head fakes that he just we've become used to with the president. The thing the thing to remember here and it's easy to forget this even I forget this sometimes as does the media. I think they're programmed to forget it. uh is that
we are not talking about Donald Trump and the United States is not the sole decision-making party. Um Israel is there totally joined at the hip with the United States. So I think when we're trying to look at the indecisiveness and the erraticism of Donald Trump, you have to understand we we have to realize that that's Israel in the background and that's kind of he he is a a marionette of Netanyahu and
the very powerful uh Israeli lobby of which his son-in-law who is right behind him at all times is a major operator uh in that whole setup. So, that's one of the problems is we're not dealing with one country. It's not a war between the US and Iran. It's a war between the US and Israel versus uh and their allies, whoever they are, uh and and Iran. That's the difficult part of this.
And that makes it really hard to analyze, really hard to kind of troubleshoot and predict. And it means you have to kind of be uh doing a bifurcated analysis all the time but still running in parallel and then trying to trying to do that is from from a diplomatic point of view it's of course a recipe for total failure all the time and I think the track record's pretty clear on that
and that's I think because of that but um so that's that's the number one problem. Uh what the other so the other problem is and Daniel touched on this as well about the internal power dispute uh in in in Saudi Arabia. This is very important. In fact the whole war with Yemen this whole situation actually stems from that. It was the the death in uh in in in January 2015 of King
Abdul Aziz. Okay. The for previous monarch and he passed away. Muhammad bin Salman was a ripe 28-year-old uh head defense minister. That was the position he was gifted as 27y old uh which is unbelievable. So the the king dies and all of a sudden uh so king Salman the current monarch is dour uh uh monarch but de facto uh head of Saudi Arabia is MBS Muhammad bin Salman. But there and as
Daniel and you you Danny as well pointed out of the power struggle and the whole Ritz Carlton uh lockdown of all of the potential uh adversaries within the family and the royal family and so forth. And Muhammad bin Naif would is regarded by many as the Arab parent. He was locked up in 2020 during that whole uh MBS uh night of the of the long knives. But there are many people that
would regard him as the Arab parent as well as a few other uh uh suitors uh in waiting there. So don't think the United States and the Israelis and the British and everybody else have already they already have plans for all this, okay? Should things go one way or the other, they have fallback plans. And those fallback plans are military coup, uh another royal to come in to parachute in to take
over. Uh so if things sort of fall apart uh in a horrific way. Um so but but the war against Yemen was launched in the wake of that just two months after the death of King Abdul Aziz in 2015. So that's when Saudi was at its weakest and most disorganized and the Obama administration and our deep state, our intelligence services took advantage of that and roped Saudi Arabia into a 10-year disastrous
losing war. that the net result was that it it made Answer Allah so strong militarily and so resilient. Everything they've done to them to to kill them, to starve them, to induce famine, to bomb them, to, you know, murder uh as many Yemenes as as as they could. Uh all it's done is made Ensur Allah not just more resilient, not just better uh militarily, not just able to uh to to to
take on the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, but they've made them popular in the Arab world, in the Muslim world. Uh they've increased the brand cache of the quote Houthis or Answer Allah. And that's to me where the real uh that's where the real currency is. That's what Iran has benefited so greatly from from standing up. So both Yemen and uh Iran have been victims of war wars of aggression by
the US by by Saudi Arabia by by Israel. They didn't start any of these wars. And I can tell you right now if if this war spills into the three contested provinces uh of Nashan, Assir and uh Giison uh bordering Yemen on on the road to Jedha. The Saudi will not be able to defend those uh those territories with ground forces. they would totally rely on uh Pakistani security or something they
could buy and bring in to stabilize those areas because they don't have and have never had uh total dominion over them in terms of their religious or tribal uh affiliations that that's previously the kingdom of Yemen. Um and but the big difference is the last thing I'll say the we've had this type of major paradigm shifts in the region before for instance when the British pulled out of Yemen in 1967 or
in 1971 when the UAE became a country and that's when the the modern borders of Oman and the UAE were formed the British were able to manage that and be probably the most influential power broker as they exited But obviously the British still have bases in Oman and three GCHQ allegedly listening stations by the way including right on the straight of Hormuse. Just a footnote there. But that you don't have the
Western powers anymore in the region. And then the local powers are not strong. They don't have infantry. They can't hold they can't uh fight on the ground. Saudi Arabia can't. Neither can the UAE. They're relying on mercenaries. They're relying on help from the air or from the west. So all of this these are this is a totally new reality for the region whereby the former tribal uh hill hill tribes of Yemen
have now emerged as a military force in this region by the babendubstraits and Iran as well is now a formidable military power in the region. So it's totally flipped the dynamics. We're past postc colonial now and this is where the west is really struggling because they're still in in some ways still kind of in the past and the the the idea that you can outsource everything to these Gulf countries and provide
them with high-tech weapons and you can win by the air. uh this has proven to be not the case uh in in in this new uh phase and and with all the new technology missiles and drones as well that's a revolution in military affairs that the Gulf states have not been able to cope with either. So that's um one one thing I think people should pay attention to. Yeah, we have some
breaking news too Daniel. Uh it seems Yemen has already has already responded by hitting a Ramco Chapter 6: Military realities of the conflict headquarters in Dahan. Um, and this this is already uh spiraling. Uh, your your reaction to this and anything that uh Patrick was comment. Yeah, I would just kind of piggyback off of it talking about, you know, high-tech stuff and the weapons that people have or whatever that still comes
uh face to face with ground realities and geography still matters. Uh the the training and the level of of capabilities of troops still matters. Your motivation still matters. And when you have something close to a monolithic body of of troops and and the like the the what's the word I'm looking for? The material from which you draw forces if they're all of the same mind and the the Houthies are pretty much
uh at least of of one mind. They are uh and they're fighting on their home soil and their home soil is mostly rocks mostly from a lot of these mountains that they have. And so they have this perfect defensive capabilities, all the advantages go to those guys. And and when you're talking about what Saudi Arabia said uh like a week or 10 days ago uh in an arrogant moment to sound tough,
I guess I don't know. But they said they were going to retake SA. They were going to have their forces, their Yemen forces, and along with their air power and everything they can bring. And dad gum it, they're going to take them out this time. They're going all the way to SA. And I'm like, dude, have you looked at a map lately? Have you looked at the force ratios? very very well
lately. Have you noticed the fact that the the Houthians aren't just getting weapons and ammunition from Iran like is claimed in the West all this time? But they have their own production capacity. Not a lot in the West are are really aware of the reality here because they don't want to be because of the uh the the memes that uh that the West is putting in the the the war of of
of uh Gerbles or Baghdad Bob which says that they're rebels, you know, they're they're just like rebels. Well, it turns out that they had captured, especially around SA, they got a lot of the military-industrial complex intact. So, they have the capacity, they have the intelligence, they have the uh the wherewithal, the human capital to build high-tech weapons of their own. 32 minutesThey're not as as big as as Iran is, and so
they don't have as much as they do, but they have a pretty good solid inventory of domestic capabilities to produce both high-tech uh missiles and and long range drones and a lot of them and and some of the medium size. So, they have a pretty pretty robust uh drone capability, certainly enough to maintain and sustain attacks across a long ways. Then, when you add just standard uh you know, rifles, when you
have artillery, uh mortars, etc., ETA uh in that mountain terrain. It's just next to impossible for a ground force that's not motivated, that's not highly trained, and is not homogeneous and is not going to, you know, literally just ri throw away tens of thousands of their lives and just keep on going up those mountains um against against the uh Houthies. So, if you're talking about a a contest of wheels and a
contest of geology and geography, um then great. Saudi Arabia has airplanes and they got a lot of them and they they are doing damage. There's no doubt about that. But that's not enough to win a war. And if you're putting all your hopes on that, you're you're almost in my view, you're almost like paying a lot to lose because there's just no way I I don't see any military path for this
forces that Saudi Arabia has and its logistic capabilities at its disposal that they're going to be able to go into mountains and survive long enough to take out the the Houthis who have I think it's like, and Patrick, you can correct me if I'm wrong. you know this better than I do, but I think they have around 350,000 active troops, but they could mobilize uh almost double that number. And if it
ever started getting into an existential issue, it wouldn't be hard to do that. Uh and and I just don't see any military path for Saudi Arabia to do anything except keep paying more to lose until they come to a diplomatic outcome and make a deal. Well, I just have to quickly uh add to that. So Daniel, what you're saying is even with the total power and combined 34 minutesarms of the United
States and NATO in Afghanistan who had a crack at it for, you know, over 20 years, very similar in terms of geography, geology, terrain. Um, the same types of problems, right? I mean, would and Saudi is nothing in that league of of the United States and NATO. Definitely not. Certainly not in terms of infantry ground operations combined. logistics, supply lines, the US is far more superior with their NATO partners and still
um they could not subdue or ultimately defeat the Taliban. And I would ask you, Daniel, in this case, the longer you're fighting them, is it a case where the Taliban would be able to adapt? So the longer you engage with them, the better the enemy and more skillful they become? Oh man, 100%. And and in fact I spend a lot of time in the in the Kunar province along the Afghanistan and
Pakistan border where those mountains are very similar to some of the ones that you see in Yemen right there. And and we definitely saw that the longer we went in there and my my first combat deployment there was 2005 and from 2005 to 2010 when I came back 101 for my last combat deployment there the Taliban had exa uh advanced considerably as they learn lessons. They figure out how we operate and
then they make counters to that. Um and and and they kept on growing. No matter how many of them we killed, they kept getting more of them. And so now then here you have a situation very similar because the Ansar Allah are from there just like the Taliban was from there and you had all this high-tech stuff but to your point especially you had the US army you had British you had
German troops uh and a lot of them to to include the all the domestic uh the ones from the uh from uh the Afghan forces. So you're talking about hundreds of thousands of troops and we could never subdue a much smaller number but much more motivated Taliban and you have a similar situation here except it's a lot worse because here there there is the Yemen forces uh that are loyal to Saudi
Arabia. So that's kind of the analogous of the Afghan forces that we were allowed with except you don't have actual well-trained uh ground forces from the from a number of western countries that are well trained. So you don't even have that going for you. So, wow. I just this is this is crazy to me to keep going down this path. And uh Daniel, I know you have a hard stop, so I
definitely want your reaction to one more thing before you go. But with what you're saying too, uh on Chapter 7: Coalition warfare limitations Sarala, I'm I'm guessing is a lot more difficult of an opponent in many ways even than the Taliban. Not nothing on the Taliban. They did something really historic in kicking the US out after all those years. But on Sarala with the weapons that they have and what they've been
able to demonstrate is some is quite something else in particular. But look at this Daniel uh as you were talking about the Saudis and their uh what they can bring to bear and what the those look at what the Wall Street Journal this is the editorial board mind you so they're talking straight from the mouthpiece of the Wall Street Journal. If the Saudis will fight, the US can help. But how about
a regional anti-Huthi alliance with Israel in the UAE? I mean, is it what your final reaction to this? I know you only got a couple minutes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. What the I fought in in coalition warfare. Uh I I did it in Desert Storm way back in the 1990s. Uh I did it here in in 2011, partly 252 in Afghanistan. And this is a very complex uh environment here. You've got to
have a lot of moving pieces. You got to have a lot of training. You got a lot of forethought. And you have to have motivated and trained troops. It it would take months months to get that kind of a force up. And then you still even after all that difficulty once you've mastered all that and that can be done. You can go through the process of getting all those things uh logistically
taken care of. It'll take a while but you can get it done there. You still had the geography. You still have the damn mountains there. Just like with us, just like Patrick, it was a great I'm glad you brought that up, Patrick. It was the same thing when you had all these very well-trained NATO forces and we came in there. You still have the same issues of those mountains. And I've been
there. I've fought in it myself and I know how hard it is for us and I know how easy it is for the defender. All those mountains give incredible much more uh than I think is commonly understood benefits to the defenders. It is so much harder for an offensive force to go in there. Look back at in World War II uh when when the Allies went up the the Italian boot all
the way up through there. It was just insane fighting with massive massive casualties. Um you had air power, you had naval power, naval gunfire, and of course all the the ground troops. You're talking millions of people here. And it was a horrible long, slow, bloody grind that went all the way up there. Nobody has the stomach to do that. There are no millions of troops to go in to take care of
a situation like this. I mean, Israel and the UAE, seriously, you think the IDF and the UAE is going to put a bunch of ground forces on the ground in in Yemen and that's going to help move up and you can help with air power, whatever, you're going to have to have boots on the ground. And I don't think that either one of those besides has it. You're wearing out the IDF
as it is with what they're doing in in Lebanon and in the Gaza Strip and in the West Bank right now. You think that they're going to let some of those guys go and go fight down here? Hell no. That's not going to happen. Whatever the Wall Street Journal says. At least that's my view. Yeah. Well, Daniel, uh, thanks so much for taking the time. I know you have a hard stop
now, so I definitely will have to have you back on soon. Everyone should follow Daniel Davis Deep Dive and they can follow that in the video description below after the show. Thanks for having me on. You have a good time. See you, Patrick. All right. Take care. Take care. Bye. Chapter 8: Internal rot and controversial policies All right, Patrick. Well, one thing I wanted to I know that you mentioned this to
me uh for the show and so I wanted to we can dive right into it. I don't know if you saw when you mentioned the uh firing squad that's going to happen December 3rd. Um soldiers, US troops are already looking for a way out. They're trying to file religious exemptions for this. They say hundreds are already doing that. But maybe you can outline exactly what's going on here. This is like the
internal rot I feel like because you have the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. They're all engaged in wars of aggression of some kind, many actually. Uh but they are all also experiencing an internal rot. And I don't think there's a story uh bigger than this one that demonstrates that. So to you uh I think you know looking at this story and thanks for bringing this up Daniel. So, I would have been
great to have this uh conversation with Daniel Davis, of course, uh because it is a military execution. Um but um we can have that conversation with with with Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis at another moment, but it's it's it's unprecedented. Um this isn't a public this isn't like another public execution. By the way, the United States did away with public e executions long time ago. Um, the last one was in 1937 and
the but the the the one that sealed the fate of public executions was in 1936. Okay. What's interesting is nobody cites the 1937 execution because it was a white man. Uh, his name was Rosco Red Jackson. He was a serial killer type character, naturalborn killers type. Uh, would hitchhike and then kill, you know, brutally murder people. Uh but you know what's interesting as a white man in 1937 the audience of his
public execution this was before television broadcasting obviously um but the audience was 500 people okay the one that people cite as the last public execution is Rainey Bethea that was in 1936 he was a black man and he uh was convicted of a brutal uh uh rape and murder of a 70-year-old white woman who he uh was his employer apparently as the story goes. But there were 20,000 people at that public
execution. So there was absolutely a racial element to it. This is unavoidable. Okay. And the reason it was it was a disaster is because they turned it into a circus carnival-like atmosphere. It was a huge embarrassment to the local government. uh it became chaotic and uh the Roosevelt administration obviously was not happy because it painted the US in a very bad light internationally. Uh it was just bread and circuses uh on
on crack basically a total total mess. So you have the same thing here. If if if Nadal Hassan was a white Christian and he had just blown a fuse, you know, uh and on the military base did a mass shooting, uh would would would Pete Hagsath want to live stream the execution? Let's be honest, okay, the answer is absolutely not. Would Hassan was convicted in 2013. He's been appealing his death sentence,
okay, by firing squad to milit military doesn't do public executions. There's never been a time when it's been public. It's only to assembled ranks of officers and it's usually for uh you know desertion, uh treason, uh disciplinary type things that that would be the normal state. So this is different. Okay, this would if it's live streams, it's not to an audience of 20,000. It's not to a US audience. It's global. It's
global. So, uh, and and Hegathth, uh, the unhinged tattoo laden Christian soldier, Pete Hegathth, who really has crusader iconography tattooed all over his body. Okay. He made a point to say, "This is a war on Islam." when he announced the uh when he announced the the the live streaming of this execution. I mean, where is this coming from? What are are the people of America demanding a live streaming of a military
execution? Uh and then the guy who's calling for it, the self-styled secretary of war is saying, uh this is is radical Islamic terror and and so forth, basically painting Nadal Hassan as a combatant. Well, if he's a combatant, then you know, consider an act of war. But do you publicly execute uh combatants on live streaming? Does the US government do that? No. Who does that? ISIS does that. ISIS does it. Other
other sort of terrorist organizations like to do that. We decry Saudi Arabia, but they don't even do public executions in Saudi Arabia. They they surely cut they cut off a lot of heads. And we say that's barbaric. But but so what is going on here? I'll tell you what's going on. And he named the date. December 3rd. Okay. That this is an an incitement. This is attempted incitement. Pete Seth, where is
this coming from? You know where this is coming from. Listen to the speech of Benjamin Netanyahu at the UN General Assembly. He's basically telling America, he's telling the world, he tells Europe in all the speeches when he gives speeches in Europe that Israel is engaged in a clash of civilizations and that they are a western proxy holding the gates of Vienna against these Muslim hordes and the Arab hordes. That is absolutely
the Netanyahu line. That is the smallest Bengavir far-right Israeli line. that is uh the so the Israel lobby you have to we have to assume that this is not coming from Pete Hegsth alone he'll willingly go forward with this to to but to what end behind him I believe are Zionist and Israeli forces that are egging this on and and and also that Trump of course is game for any bread and
circuses as we know um so think about what will happen Daniel do you remember the innocence of Muslims, the YouTube film in 2012. Remember, so that well that that sparked off some Muslim riots around the world. Okay. Now, was blamed for the sacking of the US CIA station in Benghazi at the time and the death of Christopher Stevens and you know burning of the US embassy. It turns out that that wasn't
the sole reason for the destruction of the US embassy in Benghazi. Okay. At the time, Hillary Clinton used that as an excuse at the beginning. Said it was a YouTube video. The guy who made that film was a very shady uh posed as as an Israeli. Claimed he had Israeli funding to make the film. He was a convicted felon. Why on earth was he making this weird film that got released? Clearly,
this was an op. No, we we don't know for sure what kind of an op it was, but we can be sure it was an op. So, if you if the date's been set, Dan, uh, Danny, for for December 3rd, and you know what's going to happen, it's going to be brush fire when this goes when this goes on YouTube. All the racists, Elon Musk will put this to the top. All
of the Islamophobic stuff, all of the it'll be vile. It'll be chaotic. It'll be like the execution of Rainey Beth in in 1936, but extrapolated over the global internet. Okay? racedriven uh uh clash of civilizations fueling sectarian division eight all of that okay it shouldn't happen it there's no reason for it to happen so I'm left to conclude and other smart commentators have picked this up that it is happening for a
reason and that this will be you you could very the US could very easily spark a riot in a country like Iraq for instance right right an Arab nationalist country where the US doesn't like the government. This could be used to spark unrest and some kind of chaotic series of events uh in in a lot of European cities. This is the race war. This is the religious war that the farright have
been begging for and they're going to Pete Hagsth is going to deliver it. He himself is an end times dispensationalist. He's a Christian Zionist fanatic. He believes in rebuilding the third temple on top of the Alexa. So Pete Hexath believes they need to destroy the Alexa mosque, most holy site, third most holy site in Islam to build the third temple and make the prophecy uh the the Zionist prophecy uh materialize. He
is a member of that cult. He was selected to be defense minister, secretary of war by the Israeli lobby and they lobbied heavy to senators to confirm him because of that. I that's that's what I am concluding from this. This is a moment, right? That's coming. This is a moment. This is now a train that is heading down the tracks. They've set the date. And you know, if if if you wanted
to create some kind of a major religious conflration or to rev up both sides or to make an excuse for a false flag Islamic terror event in the West, this would be it. This is that moment. And then that would be a nuclear retaliation by the US and Israel against Iran or whatever. You can kind of just imagine this is insane. And so if this is insane, what what is being proposed
here, then you have to believe that everything that comes after that is going to be even more insane. So I'm I'm saying this this could be a disaster. I hope I'm wrong. I hope they call it off. I hope no soldiers show up with their rifles to want to do this exhibitionism in the most grotesque exhibitionism with the ring leader being a massive exhibitionist himself, Pete Hex. Literally, he is he is
an exhibitionist. He's always got his sleeves rolled up. So, he show his tattoos. You notice this? Totally insecure. He's always projecting this image. He's got infidel tattooed on the inside of his right bicep in Arabic to to to project that he is uh fighting the Muslims. Basically, that's what that is. that he's the devil in their he's he's thinks he's projecting fear into the eyes and minds of Muslims by having infidel
tattooed in Arabic right on his right bicep. This is sick. Okay, this is a deranged individual. He's been put in a very powerful position and now he's about to press the button of something extremely volatile and the president is backing him. The Israeli lobby are gleefully giddy ringing their hands behind the scenes. I'm telling you right now. So what have they got planned after around December 3rd? What have they got planned?
Because this is not happening by uh coincidence. And I'm just saying this and people can believe me or not, but this is extraordinary. The fact that this is going to happen or is people are even talking about it to me is extraordinary. It's such a departure from uh the decorum and normal kind of integrity and avoiding these kind of, you know, grotesque uh public executions. I mean, what the f Yeah. This
is a moment in history for America. If you can't find your moral compass right now, Americans, then I I I wouldn't have a lot of uh confidence that you can hold the country together in the future. I'm sorry, but that's, you know, this is not the America that I was educated and raised to understand and to respect. And the the these do not reflect American values at all. For a I think
the majority of Americans would agree with me, but a lot of people are just either too uh I don't know, intoxicated uh you know, desensitized. Yeah. Uh on Stockholm syndrome, despondent. Who knows? I I don't know. But but this is a moment. This is a moment. And the Democrats better pull the damn finger out if they want to do something about it. They could easily This could easily be derailed, by the
way. Oh, yeah. Especially after the midterms, too. Yeah. If people if people and before the midterms. Yep. So I Daniel, it's uh Danny, this is just something that you know I I just cited a very very important point of history for people to in a pre- internet pre- television. Um this is why we got rid of these things, but we've never had a military one. This is unprecedented. This is a break
from protocol and I believe it's way outside of the bounds of the US military. Way outside. This was a crime. this that that means why why is he doing it Danny? This is a political stunt. There is no other reason. There's no legal reason. There's no deterrent reason because how often does that happen on a US base? Once once in 300 years. So there's no deterrent value to it whatsoever. This is
incitement. This is incitement. I I'm 100% certain of this and people should not people should not uh give this they should not let this let this go easily and allow these people to steamroll our our values our morals uh potentially world peace as a result and you're empowering some of the darkest forces I'm telling you uh by going down this road it's not a road you want to go down America I
can tell you Yeah, very well said Patrick and it also builds this interesting chain of events which uh as you said will have global ramifications. We had the RAF incident in the UK. Then we had the Fly Dubai. And many of those, many people would say that those incidents, you know, relatively small, didn't pan out to really anything. But it builds a an 55 minutesatmosphere for something bigger. And should this go
through, it certainly would be bigger and uh uh really, as you said, stir the pot in sight and uh give the United States and Israel, at least the uh the regimes, the elites, a big terrain to um you know, plausibly deny whatever reaction is. Look how look how far behind the eight-ball is Israel in terms of its public uh polling uh approval support. It's cratered. It's tanked. So they're really in a
hole, I think. Uh and so imagine if they uh then some, you know, as if by magic some kind of Islamic false flag attack happens in America or Europe or something uh and then there's some vicious response from the US uh to against Iran probably most likely it would be Iran. Uh they'd be blamed an Iranian terror attack or something. It would completely reverse the fortunes of Israel. um and it would
bury everything else under another heap of ash. Uh and and move on business as usual. Let the wars continue. So that that that's kind of what you're risking here. And we're we're we're troubleshooting this potential possibilities, but you can be sure that somebody is calculating uh very carefully what they might be able to get away with uh under the you know the the cloud, the mayhem of of that kind of a
global event. So that's what I'm telling people to really bear in mind here. Yeah. uh and it's really important too that it's the Israeli regime is has seen its stock crater around the world and you know the United States not its regime both domestically and abroad also uh having huge legitimacy problems so there is incentive on every side here uh and we know that it's all aligning with the fact that you
have so you have this whole region now of the world that is such a focal point for the US Empire and for Israel. And uh they both are demonstrating that they have no interest in um pulling back and uh doing what the Trump administration, Donald Trump himself uh was campaigning on for so long, which is uh which is to stop the wars and the waste and all this. No, no, it's now
we can now you know this is all a mask off moment, Patrick. And uh we know we're at the last couple minutes here. Do you have any final comments before we start closing out the show? Um no, I mean there's a lot of things that we could um extrapolate on and analyze some crazy comments by uh by the president. I mean the the one that comes to mind that's just complete patently
insane is him saying that uh well, you know, we might have to sacrifice Los Angeles or San Diego. Uh he's talking about what a nuclear attack from Iran. What the but what the hell is he talking about? Like he's confabulating different things in his head, but he makes these statements to the press. What exactly is he talking about? Well, would would US long-range bombers be launched from San Diego or, you know,
Los Angeles or long-range nuclear bombers if they did bomb Iran? Uh, is that what he's referring to? Uh, because these comments just they don't make any sense. He's not really pulled up on them properly, but there's all sorts of messaging going on. It's a very strange 59 minutescomment that he made and people will say, "Well, because they're liberal cities and not necessarily. There's a lot of conservatives in San Diego. I can
tell you right now, Orange County, San Diego, that's a conservative hotbed of California, by the way." Um, so I I don't think you could make a partisan uh analysis to somehow frame Trump's statement there, but nonetheless, it's a kind of reckless uh nihilistic comment by a US president during a war situation where people are banning about the use of nuclear weapons. Uh, and the threshold has been considerably lowered on all sides.
Um it's disturbing to say the least. So um you know I'm I hope people don't get too uh enscconced in the upcoming election to forget about the other things that we really should also be paying attention to in addition to that. So um and this is one of them. It's never I the nuclear alarm in terms of the risk of something happening has never I think been higher than it is right
now save for maybe the Cuban missile crisis um historically. So people should bear that in mind especially people in Washington and uh Republicans and Democrats equally. Yeah, this was a great show, Patrick. Uh it was great to have Daniel Davis on the show with us. We'll have to do that again. We'll have to have you both back on uh very soon. I want to make sure everybody knows that both Daniel Davis
deep dive, but also uh your show Patrick 21st Century Wire in the video description below as well as your Substack. So everyone should check that out after the show. Make sure you support Patrick's work um as well as Daniel. Thanks for the super chat. Thanks to all the moderators. There are quite a few of you uh here today. So I appreciate all of your help in the chat. Be sure to hit
the like button before you go. I'll be back tomorrow with Alistister Crook at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. So, a bit earlier tomorrow. So, catch me in the morning, 10 a.m. Eastern, uh, with Alistister Crook. All right, everybody. Patrick and I are going to be out of here, but Patrick will be back on soon to continue the conversation.
Danny Haiphong
92 minutes ago #yemen #trump #israel
Patrick Henningsen and Daniel Davis break down the stunning developments in the Saudi-Yemen war that have the US AND Israel moving toward all out war. Meanwhile, Yemen and Iran have both stepped up their strike targets dramatically as Riyadh burns overnight and a record number of tankers get taken out in the Strait of Hormuz. What does all of this mean from both a military and geopolitical perspective? We traverse the biggest flashpoints in the ongoing war between US-led unipolarity and the rising multipolar world now finding big momentum in West Asia.
Transcript
Chapter 1: Escalation in Yemen Welcome back to the show everyone. As you can see, I'm joined by Patrick Hennington of 21st Century Wire and Daniel Davis of Deep Dive with Daniel Davis to go over the latest developments. Well, gentlemen, I wanted to begin with Yemen. Uh, Riad has absolutely been getting leveled, not just its airports, uh, but across the country of Saudi Arabia as a whole. This
was King Khaled airport last night. Uh despite claims of Saudi interceptions of Yemeni ballistic missile strikes, uh Saudi infrastructure continues to take a beating. Here are more images of what's going on. Saudi Arabia though has been trying to hide this information from the world. It has actually detained US citizens for taking video of uh Yemen drone in missile strikes. Now, in retaliation, response I should say, because this is Saudi aggression, uh,
war plananes have started to hit Yemen oil infrastructure, which Ensurala has said will come with a heavy price in response. We may be getting Donald Trump made a comment earlier today, but Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel seem to be really pushing to try to enter this war. They are in talks with NBS uh to uh do just that. strange enough because they didn't really need permission last time they conducted strikes. Ansurala uh
is saying that the United States should be very careful about a swift and painful response if it should get involved as Trump has warned that he is thinking about getting involved and of course six tankers in the last have been hit in the straight of by Iran as uh the Trump administration is on right now. It seems like a campaign trail. Uh but nevertheless, Patrick, how about we start with you? What's
your reaction in response to what's going on right now? Uh this war keeps on getting bigger and it seems like it's about to expand even further as uh Saudi Arabia shows no signs of tapping out. No. Uh it looks like uh Danny that Saudi is uh got their finger on the trigger uh but uh holding a gun to their own head. uh they're in the process of committing suicide. Uh if they
do, and you have to take an Allah's warning seriously at this point, I mean, they they don't mince words, they don't bluff, there's not false threats, they will hit the most sensitive Aramco oil facilities. Uh it's guaranteed. Uh so if you know paralyzing your air travel at your country's largest airport isn't enough uh you want to go on to the the biggest and most sensitive Aramco facilities, they will hit them and
probably based on their previous successes and targeting it's going to do significant damage. And you know as as many experts have pointed out and uh I've looked into this over the years as well very sophisticated uh these pipelines and the array of how the networks in terms of oil distribution refineries is it's very meticulously uh and well put together in Saudi Arabia but it it can be very expensive time consuming to
repair. Um you're talking about uh you know pipelines, pump stations that go across some of the most hostile terrain uh in that country. Uh Yemen, uh the Yemenes are very well aware of this. Um so it's not a question of getting them back up online uh in a few hours. In some cases, it could take weeks or months. Uh so you know this it's an existential moment for the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia. They've chosen wisely from unwisely, pardon me, from the very beginning of this. And I don't see any improvement in their decision-making quite frankly. So, I'd be very very concerned right now for anybody in Saudi Arabia or who is allied with Saudi Arabia as to how this is going to come out. Yeah. And Daniel, this is Donald Trump's response. This is how he's responding to everything. He said, "The Houthis are behaving
very badly. I thought they learned their lesson a year ago when the Chapter 2: Analyzing the regional war hell out of them." He said somebody should explain to them that I'm not running the elections. I've already won a massive landslide. Uh there's after the elections and I will never but there there I'll be after the elections and I'll never forget referring to Iran. But he said they're behaving very badly. Daniel, how
have you what have you made of the US response? There are serious talks supposedly of the US getting involved. Uh but maybe you can correct the record here about what Donald Trump is saying and any reactions you have to what Patrick said. Well, look, I mean, you talk about learning lessons. I think they did learn the lessons. They kicked our ass. I mean, let's just be blunt about it. First, they they
smoked us uh with uh during the Biden administration when they tried to shut down the Houthies and and keep the Red Sea traffic open up in support of Israel uh during the first part of that war. And what did we get for our efforts? We spent I don't even know some number of billions of dollars, all kinds of missiles that we shot, the interceptors we we got rid of. Uh lost a
bunch of uh uh Reaper drones, I think seven of them during the Biden administration portion. Couple of airplanes got locked off the the decks. A couple of F-18s literally lost all into the sea off the deck because we were avoiding uh missiles that were uh being shot at some of our aircraft carriers. So, yeah, I think they did learn the lesson. The lesson is that we can handle you when you're trying
to project power into the region with the kind of power you got. We can hit it. And you talked about in a narrow straight there in the in the Red Sea in a narrow path, etc. um or we they're showing that they can hit anything that uh is in the Middle East as uh Patrick was alluding to as you showed on the opening segment here is that with with all of the
the air defense capabilities that Saudi Arabia has, all the stuff they bought from us, uh all the stuff they've got from other P forces and the the centrality of the King Khaled airport for crying out loud. I mean, that is a a central target and they can't protect it. I don't know how much 6 minuteswas actually shot down, but it doesn't matter. It only matters what gets through and it matters that
they can't stop more. So to Patrick's point when he said he doesn't think that the Houthies bluff what they say they have done um and what they have attempted to do they have succeeded at. So if if you want to keep going down this path, whether it's the United States or whether it's Saudi Arabia, and saying I'm not going to deal with these guys, then what you're saying is I'm going to
endure more punishment on our on our oil facilities because that's the that's the central the the the fulcrum for pressuring Saudi Arabia because if you can't stop the h the main airport, if you can't stop hitting a Ramco facilities, it's literally the lifeblood of your country. And I think the the NSRock can suck down however many missiles you want to shoot. I mean they did for what at seven eight years I
think from 2015 up to 2022 when they it's time to cease and I I who knows how many thousands of air strikes there were never brought them to their knees. They're certainly not going to do it now with a number of other air strikes. It'll kill some people. It'll blow some stuff up. But these people show they are resilient and they know how to endure this kind of stuff. And there's a
cost to doing that too. You I think they've already lost a couple of aircraft if I'm not mistaken. They could lose some more, but it's it's never going to be enough. You can't bomb your way to victory just like the US can't bomb their way to victory in Iran. Neither can Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is desperately trying to get anybody they can to join him on the ground whether that's the US
uh Pakistan uh Turkey apparently at least publicly there's uh Israel wanted to help but Muhammad bin Salman this morning at least publicly again said we told them no because he he's concerned about the impact of his people and that might be legitimate they may not want that kind of help but the problem is if you can't do this militarily and and you can't stop the attacks on your infrastructure, then you're either
going to have to say we're going to be defeated or we're going to have to make a deal with Ansarah, which is not out of character for the Middle East. You they can do this. People have done it for centuries. It's not out of character. They just don't want to. But the question is, how much pain do they have to have heaped on them before they finally do something? Because I don't
see any other way out that's going to have them on the top. Yeah. You know, Patrick, uh there's something very familiar about what's happening in this uh I guess you could say Yemen Saudi war, the Saudi aggression on Yemen. And uh you know, we have this by the Los Angeles Times saying that there's a grim choice as Chapter 3: Geopolitical narrative control Daniel just put out there as Onsurella intensifies attacks and
the grim choice is either they give up or they continue fighting both of which will have consequences. And also I remember during strikes on Israel by Iran very similar reports of people getting arrested and this is also true across the Gulf uh where any footage that was attempted to be taken uh was heavily sought after pursued by authorities in places like Bahrain and of course Tel Aviv. Um and of course uh
this also runs parallel to what Iran is doing where they're they continue to hit ships in the straight of Hormuz and uh the United States kind of like Saudi Arabia seem to have no answer to it. So what do you make of uh how this conflict right now this war is shaping up in the larger regional context and geopolitical context? Well, I think we've we've outlined the uh you know, the military
uh uh theater pretty well and uh in your previous programs, Danny, as well as on uh Daniel Davis's uh program with all his amazing guests. That's pretty clear. What's different about this one, though, is this this the information war. the information war uh for this is is trying to take shape and it's hugely problematic because the west don't have command and control over the 10 minutesfacts and over the narrative and the
framing on this and it's to me an extraordinary thing uh if you look across uh social media just to kind of gauge public opinion globally uh you know who would have thought that the world community would be applauding uh uh Allah after they attacked uh King Hyd International Airport in Riyad because that's kind of what's happening. In other words, nobody's shedding a tear for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The world has
worked out that they are in the wrong. They're the aggressor. They're it's a theocratic dictatorship. Okay, for starters, but a lot of people have jumped to the defense of and politicians, many of whom uh have interests have said, "We stand with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia against this Yemeni aggression." I mean, what world are we on here? Saudi started this war. It's the same type of thing of the United States decrying
Iranian aggression against US troops in the region, Donald Trump and Rubio. They're putting our servicemen uh in harm's way, you know, at risk uh in the region. We have to defend our servicemen who started the war in the first place. It was Israel and the US. The same thing here. So you can't really make the argument that uh Saudi or sorry that the Ansarah aka the Houthis the Yemenes are in the
wrong for attacking uh Riad International Airport because Saudi Arabia have attacked SA airport 227 times over the last give or take 11 years. So it's not an argument and it's not a civilian target uh because uh uh the international airport in Riyad uh is very much involved in a lot of logistics operations. Um they are uh it's it's like for like Saudi Arabia have hit without any uh compunction hit civilian targets.
They've been running a tarvation siege. So any western commentators that are that are saying that oh uh the answer in Allah shouldn't be escalating this war this is not a serious argument and I would I would argue a lot these people are propagandists because they're trying to reframe this for a western audience the the Americans and Saudis in the UAE have have starved the Yemeni people do do people in the west
realize that this has killed hundreds of thousands of of Yemen It is one of the worst war crimes. But because the western media didn't anoint this as an official tragedy, most people don't even know about it. You know, and the United States has done well to sort of have no accountability whatsoever in their role. Saudi Arabia, forget it. So, uh, it's it's that's really important. The the other thing you got to
realize is Saudi Arabia have the most incredible online bot army. I don't know if people 13 minuteshave paid attention to this over the years, but they're they're in there like a shot. Even if you have a small account and a comment thread comes in commenting on this or criticizing uh the the kingdom, they have AI detection and they're in there with their bot accounts. So my they've been swarming my comments and
I'm already throttled on X, but I'm still besieged by Saudi bots. But within the country, there's no criticism of the government of Muhammad bin Salman. it is totally not allowed, totally forbidden. So, when you're talking about Danny, how they've masked over the uh the coverage of uh especially what's happened with these attacks or at the airport or any other sign of weakness or sign of uh uh uh negligence or just incompetence
by the regime, you won't see it if you're in the in the Gulf or in Saudi Arabia. You you watch their news coverage, everything's going great. They're they've got the Houthies on the run. It's it's like it's incredible. So, they've got their own sort of Baghdad Bob kind of media um plan there in Saudi Arabia. It is incredible the amount of censorship there. So, but it's all leaked out globally through independent
media, through international media, and they can't bottle it this time. So, it's that that's that's the thing I think is extraordinary. Chapter 4: The crisis of Saudi leadership Yeah. What else is extraordinary too that's not being mentioned is uh with that airport attack at the international airport in Riyad, Saudi Arabia had actually for two weeks just stopped uh their early warning system of any missile strikes and did not uh evacuate the
airport despite evacuation warnings by onsala. So now those early warning systems are back on because Reuters started to report on it uh two weeks late. But nevertheless, Daniel, you know, the Trump administration, Netanyahu, and uh the Saudi regime, they're all saying the same thing now. It's aggressive. They're uh they're the problem. They're the ones who are committing terror attacks. What does that tell you? Well, it tells me they're just uh they're
stuck in in a single playbook. I mean, they they they use that for literally every conflict they have. they just just cut and paste, you know, which country we're talking about today. The rest of it is virtually identical. Uh problem is kind of also alluding to what Patrick said, it it's just not playing anymore because for a while people would believe a lot of that stuff, but now they're seeing with their
own eyes. They're saying hang on because you can't stop these attacks on your most important facilities, the East West Pipeline or Ramco facilities themselves, the the main airport, your capital city. Um, and then we also see down there that you have hit some of the Saudi, I'm sorry, some of the Yemen Yemenes areas, Ansarah with the Houthis, and people are going, "Wait a minute. If these guys are just the Houthi rebels,
as we always called them, how is it that your modern military with the, you know, modern American fighter jets and help from the Great Britain, you know, with the some of the refueling, etc., and all these bombs you have, why can you not win any of this stuff?" So people are just aren't paying attention to to what those claims are anymore. They just don't matter. But then you also look at some
of the bigger issues more on the political realm and you're saying why is it also that nobody's coming to Saudi Arabia's help? Why is the US not coming to help them out? Why is uh why is Pakistan not after this Mecca Accords? Why is Turkey not? Why is nobody's coming to their help? And now then that is also being seen domestically inside the house of Saud and inside the the the architecture
uh politically uh within the Saudi Arabia itself. And I I think Patrick even mentioned on my show here recently uh there's a lot of sore feelings from within the uh power structures in Saudi Arabia from what Ben Salman did to them. I think it was in 2020, if I'm not mistaken, where he locked a bunch of them into a hotel in Riad and basically tortured a lot of them to get them
to do what he wanted. Uh, a lot of them didn't forget about all of that. And so now then they see, okay, you can't bring anybody to our help. You can't defeat the the Houthies here. Why did you start this war? You can't win. And if this keeps going on and we get more of our facilities hit, dis destroying our ability to even make revenue, pushing it back years to get corrected,
maybe we need new leadership in the in Saudi Arabia. Maybe Sman needs to be shown the exit or some other exit door, whatever. So I think that the actual the House of Saud is in real trouble right now. U you know this this is something that's is going on part of the the region as well and it's it has ramifications and reverberations even into the Iran war and what may be coming
next because Iran has also said if we are attacked again and they said I think this was just yesterday by uh General Resay he said yeah Saudi Arabia may also be in a target so they may be getting it from a couple of different sides and 18 minutesthey can't stop any of it so they're they're in a real real serious problem here you you mentioned this at the earlier that uh when
you show one headline that they're in a real pickle because if they give in to toss Allah, they're in one trouble. If they don't, they're in separate. But listen, you got to say one here is an existential crisis. If you don't make a deal, which again can be done effectively within Arab traditions, if you don't make that kind of a deal here, you're going to suffer loss and you may literally be
defeated from both without and within. So I think that he better start reading the tea leaves pretty quickly if he wants to stay in power and make some kind of a deal with the with the alah. Daniel staying on you for just a second. Do you find that do you see the United States getting involved more directly? We know of course Sentcom is all over Saudi Arabia and Riad and helping the
regime in some ways, but do you believe that they'll get more involved? The Trump administration has uh essentially done what it usually does, which is bluff a lot and talk a lot, but so far no action. What do you think? Yeah, that I hope that continues on. The talk a lot but no do. Uh and Bluff, I'm rarely for it. But in this particular case, if it's between Bluff or actually making
good on your promises, list don't. Uh but he's also been very careful about not even making any real promises only that we're thinking about it. We're looking into it. We might do it. They behave very badly. You know, stuff like that, which is not even really implying anything. And my my instinct would normally tell me we're not going to do this because it would fool hearty, especially because we may be on
the verge of doing something that's really foolhardy, like restarting the war against Iran. And if you're thinking about doing that, the last thing you want to do is further disperse your power on the eve of doing something stupid over there by doing something stupid over here and then you're splitting your forces, which means you're most likely going to fail in both places. So, I would imagine that Trump would not do that
for that reason. But unfortunately with this administration, with this uh man being in the White House right now, he's done a lot of things that were irrational and counterproductive uh and and clearly self-evidently a bad decision, yet they were they were actually done. And that's been done a number of times, not the least of which was after the the memorandum of understanding was signed last June. I mean, he had a golden
ticket to get out. He had a golden ticket back in midFebruary or the latter part of February before this war started with the Omani mediation that he could have had a tremendous deal that would have given him a great political victory without war. But he took he threw that in the trash and then he threw the one in the trash in theouou which after discovering you were you got into a war
you couldn't win and then here's this great way to get out where you at least get to save some face. and he didn't take that either. And so now here we are again and he shouldn't do this but I Chapter 5: Regional shifts and power dynamics mean he's made some really bad decisions. So unfortunately I can't rule anything out. Yeah. Well Patrick uh you know to you your your thoughts on anything
Daniel said and uh you know this uh idea that we can't rule anything out when it comes to the Trump administration. But this war has gotten bigger and this one that we're talking about right now on the Yemen front is going to get bigger. Uh but the United States is and Iran just said that they are preparing for a bigger war. They might even go on the ground. They have about 400,000
troops ready to uh uh do ground incursions if the US restarts. So obviously there is alarm and alert in Iran about war starting again. So this that that that doesn't when I look at the region that sounds like a a powder keg, a mess and uh it all seems to be pointing to huge consequences for the United States and the Trump administration in particular two and a half weeks away from an
election. Well, when when when Daniel was uh rightly pointing out just the erraticism and the in seemingly uh indecisive nature of of the president and the constant bluffing and uh head fakes that he just we've become used to with the president. The thing the thing to remember here and it's easy to forget this even I forget this sometimes as does the media. I think they're programmed to forget it. uh is that
we are not talking about Donald Trump and the United States is not the sole decision-making party. Um Israel is there totally joined at the hip with the United States. So I think when we're trying to look at the indecisiveness and the erraticism of Donald Trump, you have to understand we we have to realize that that's Israel in the background and that's kind of he he is a a marionette of Netanyahu and
the very powerful uh Israeli lobby of which his son-in-law who is right behind him at all times is a major operator uh in that whole setup. So, that's one of the problems is we're not dealing with one country. It's not a war between the US and Iran. It's a war between the US and Israel versus uh and their allies, whoever they are, uh and and Iran. That's the difficult part of this.
And that makes it really hard to analyze, really hard to kind of troubleshoot and predict. And it means you have to kind of be uh doing a bifurcated analysis all the time but still running in parallel and then trying to trying to do that is from from a diplomatic point of view it's of course a recipe for total failure all the time and I think the track record's pretty clear on that
and that's I think because of that but um so that's that's the number one problem. Uh what the other so the other problem is and Daniel touched on this as well about the internal power dispute uh in in in Saudi Arabia. This is very important. In fact the whole war with Yemen this whole situation actually stems from that. It was the the death in uh in in in January 2015 of King
Abdul Aziz. Okay. The for previous monarch and he passed away. Muhammad bin Salman was a ripe 28-year-old uh head defense minister. That was the position he was gifted as 27y old uh which is unbelievable. So the the king dies and all of a sudden uh so king Salman the current monarch is dour uh uh monarch but de facto uh head of Saudi Arabia is MBS Muhammad bin Salman. But there and as
Daniel and you you Danny as well pointed out of the power struggle and the whole Ritz Carlton uh lockdown of all of the potential uh adversaries within the family and the royal family and so forth. And Muhammad bin Naif would is regarded by many as the Arab parent. He was locked up in 2020 during that whole uh MBS uh night of the of the long knives. But there are many people that
would regard him as the Arab parent as well as a few other uh uh suitors uh in waiting there. So don't think the United States and the Israelis and the British and everybody else have already they already have plans for all this, okay? Should things go one way or the other, they have fallback plans. And those fallback plans are military coup, uh another royal to come in to parachute in to take
over. Uh so if things sort of fall apart uh in a horrific way. Um so but but the war against Yemen was launched in the wake of that just two months after the death of King Abdul Aziz in 2015. So that's when Saudi was at its weakest and most disorganized and the Obama administration and our deep state, our intelligence services took advantage of that and roped Saudi Arabia into a 10-year disastrous
losing war. that the net result was that it it made Answer Allah so strong militarily and so resilient. Everything they've done to them to to kill them, to starve them, to induce famine, to bomb them, to, you know, murder uh as many Yemenes as as as they could. Uh all it's done is made Ensur Allah not just more resilient, not just better uh militarily, not just able to uh to to to
take on the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, but they've made them popular in the Arab world, in the Muslim world. Uh they've increased the brand cache of the quote Houthis or Answer Allah. And that's to me where the real uh that's where the real currency is. That's what Iran has benefited so greatly from from standing up. So both Yemen and uh Iran have been victims of war wars of aggression by
the US by by Saudi Arabia by by Israel. They didn't start any of these wars. And I can tell you right now if if this war spills into the three contested provinces uh of Nashan, Assir and uh Giison uh bordering Yemen on on the road to Jedha. The Saudi will not be able to defend those uh those territories with ground forces. they would totally rely on uh Pakistani security or something they
could buy and bring in to stabilize those areas because they don't have and have never had uh total dominion over them in terms of their religious or tribal uh affiliations that that's previously the kingdom of Yemen. Um and but the big difference is the last thing I'll say the we've had this type of major paradigm shifts in the region before for instance when the British pulled out of Yemen in 1967 or
in 1971 when the UAE became a country and that's when the the modern borders of Oman and the UAE were formed the British were able to manage that and be probably the most influential power broker as they exited But obviously the British still have bases in Oman and three GCHQ allegedly listening stations by the way including right on the straight of Hormuse. Just a footnote there. But that you don't have the
Western powers anymore in the region. And then the local powers are not strong. They don't have infantry. They can't hold they can't uh fight on the ground. Saudi Arabia can't. Neither can the UAE. They're relying on mercenaries. They're relying on help from the air or from the west. So all of this these are this is a totally new reality for the region whereby the former tribal uh hill hill tribes of Yemen
have now emerged as a military force in this region by the babendubstraits and Iran as well is now a formidable military power in the region. So it's totally flipped the dynamics. We're past postc colonial now and this is where the west is really struggling because they're still in in some ways still kind of in the past and the the the idea that you can outsource everything to these Gulf countries and provide
them with high-tech weapons and you can win by the air. uh this has proven to be not the case uh in in in this new uh phase and and with all the new technology missiles and drones as well that's a revolution in military affairs that the Gulf states have not been able to cope with either. So that's um one one thing I think people should pay attention to. Yeah, we have some
breaking news too Daniel. Uh it seems Yemen has already has already responded by hitting a Ramco Chapter 6: Military realities of the conflict headquarters in Dahan. Um, and this this is already uh spiraling. Uh, your your reaction to this and anything that uh Patrick was comment. Yeah, I would just kind of piggyback off of it talking about, you know, high-tech stuff and the weapons that people have or whatever that still comes
uh face to face with ground realities and geography still matters. Uh the the training and the level of of capabilities of troops still matters. Your motivation still matters. And when you have something close to a monolithic body of of troops and and the like the the what's the word I'm looking for? The material from which you draw forces if they're all of the same mind and the the Houthies are pretty much
uh at least of of one mind. They are uh and they're fighting on their home soil and their home soil is mostly rocks mostly from a lot of these mountains that they have. And so they have this perfect defensive capabilities, all the advantages go to those guys. And and when you're talking about what Saudi Arabia said uh like a week or 10 days ago uh in an arrogant moment to sound tough,
I guess I don't know. But they said they were going to retake SA. They were going to have their forces, their Yemen forces, and along with their air power and everything they can bring. And dad gum it, they're going to take them out this time. They're going all the way to SA. And I'm like, dude, have you looked at a map lately? Have you looked at the force ratios? very very well
lately. Have you noticed the fact that the the Houthians aren't just getting weapons and ammunition from Iran like is claimed in the West all this time? But they have their own production capacity. Not a lot in the West are are really aware of the reality here because they don't want to be because of the uh the the memes that uh that the West is putting in the the the war of of
of uh Gerbles or Baghdad Bob which says that they're rebels, you know, they're they're just like rebels. Well, it turns out that they had captured, especially around SA, they got a lot of the military-industrial complex intact. So, they have the capacity, they have the intelligence, they have the uh the wherewithal, the human capital to build high-tech weapons of their own. 32 minutesThey're not as as big as as Iran is, and so
they don't have as much as they do, but they have a pretty good solid inventory of domestic capabilities to produce both high-tech uh missiles and and long range drones and a lot of them and and some of the medium size. So, they have a pretty pretty robust uh drone capability, certainly enough to maintain and sustain attacks across a long ways. Then, when you add just standard uh you know, rifles, when you
have artillery, uh mortars, etc., ETA uh in that mountain terrain. It's just next to impossible for a ground force that's not motivated, that's not highly trained, and is not homogeneous and is not going to, you know, literally just ri throw away tens of thousands of their lives and just keep on going up those mountains um against against the uh Houthies. So, if you're talking about a a contest of wheels and a
contest of geology and geography, um then great. Saudi Arabia has airplanes and they got a lot of them and they they are doing damage. There's no doubt about that. But that's not enough to win a war. And if you're putting all your hopes on that, you're you're almost in my view, you're almost like paying a lot to lose because there's just no way I I don't see any military path for this
forces that Saudi Arabia has and its logistic capabilities at its disposal that they're going to be able to go into mountains and survive long enough to take out the the Houthis who have I think it's like, and Patrick, you can correct me if I'm wrong. you know this better than I do, but I think they have around 350,000 active troops, but they could mobilize uh almost double that number. And if it
ever started getting into an existential issue, it wouldn't be hard to do that. Uh and and I just don't see any military path for Saudi Arabia to do anything except keep paying more to lose until they come to a diplomatic outcome and make a deal. Well, I just have to quickly uh add to that. So Daniel, what you're saying is even with the total power and combined 34 minutesarms of the United
States and NATO in Afghanistan who had a crack at it for, you know, over 20 years, very similar in terms of geography, geology, terrain. Um, the same types of problems, right? I mean, would and Saudi is nothing in that league of of the United States and NATO. Definitely not. Certainly not in terms of infantry ground operations combined. logistics, supply lines, the US is far more superior with their NATO partners and still
um they could not subdue or ultimately defeat the Taliban. And I would ask you, Daniel, in this case, the longer you're fighting them, is it a case where the Taliban would be able to adapt? So the longer you engage with them, the better the enemy and more skillful they become? Oh man, 100%. And and in fact I spend a lot of time in the in the Kunar province along the Afghanistan and
Pakistan border where those mountains are very similar to some of the ones that you see in Yemen right there. And and we definitely saw that the longer we went in there and my my first combat deployment there was 2005 and from 2005 to 2010 when I came back 101 for my last combat deployment there the Taliban had exa uh advanced considerably as they learn lessons. They figure out how we operate and
then they make counters to that. Um and and and they kept on growing. No matter how many of them we killed, they kept getting more of them. And so now then here you have a situation very similar because the Ansar Allah are from there just like the Taliban was from there and you had all this high-tech stuff but to your point especially you had the US army you had British you had
German troops uh and a lot of them to to include the all the domestic uh the ones from the uh from uh the Afghan forces. So you're talking about hundreds of thousands of troops and we could never subdue a much smaller number but much more motivated Taliban and you have a similar situation here except it's a lot worse because here there there is the Yemen forces uh that are loyal to Saudi
Arabia. So that's kind of the analogous of the Afghan forces that we were allowed with except you don't have actual well-trained uh ground forces from the from a number of western countries that are well trained. So you don't even have that going for you. So, wow. I just this is this is crazy to me to keep going down this path. And uh Daniel, I know you have a hard stop, so I
definitely want your reaction to one more thing before you go. But with what you're saying too, uh on Chapter 7: Coalition warfare limitations Sarala, I'm I'm guessing is a lot more difficult of an opponent in many ways even than the Taliban. Not nothing on the Taliban. They did something really historic in kicking the US out after all those years. But on Sarala with the weapons that they have and what they've been
able to demonstrate is some is quite something else in particular. But look at this Daniel uh as you were talking about the Saudis and their uh what they can bring to bear and what the those look at what the Wall Street Journal this is the editorial board mind you so they're talking straight from the mouthpiece of the Wall Street Journal. If the Saudis will fight, the US can help. But how about
a regional anti-Huthi alliance with Israel in the UAE? I mean, is it what your final reaction to this? I know you only got a couple minutes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. What the I fought in in coalition warfare. Uh I I did it in Desert Storm way back in the 1990s. Uh I did it here in in 2011, partly 252 in Afghanistan. And this is a very complex uh environment here. You've got to
have a lot of moving pieces. You got to have a lot of training. You got a lot of forethought. And you have to have motivated and trained troops. It it would take months months to get that kind of a force up. And then you still even after all that difficulty once you've mastered all that and that can be done. You can go through the process of getting all those things uh logistically
taken care of. It'll take a while but you can get it done there. You still had the geography. You still have the damn mountains there. Just like with us, just like Patrick, it was a great I'm glad you brought that up, Patrick. It was the same thing when you had all these very well-trained NATO forces and we came in there. You still have the same issues of those mountains. And I've been
there. I've fought in it myself and I know how hard it is for us and I know how easy it is for the defender. All those mountains give incredible much more uh than I think is commonly understood benefits to the defenders. It is so much harder for an offensive force to go in there. Look back at in World War II uh when when the Allies went up the the Italian boot all
the way up through there. It was just insane fighting with massive massive casualties. Um you had air power, you had naval power, naval gunfire, and of course all the the ground troops. You're talking millions of people here. And it was a horrible long, slow, bloody grind that went all the way up there. Nobody has the stomach to do that. There are no millions of troops to go in to take care of
a situation like this. I mean, Israel and the UAE, seriously, you think the IDF and the UAE is going to put a bunch of ground forces on the ground in in Yemen and that's going to help move up and you can help with air power, whatever, you're going to have to have boots on the ground. And I don't think that either one of those besides has it. You're wearing out the IDF
as it is with what they're doing in in Lebanon and in the Gaza Strip and in the West Bank right now. You think that they're going to let some of those guys go and go fight down here? Hell no. That's not going to happen. Whatever the Wall Street Journal says. At least that's my view. Yeah. Well, Daniel, uh, thanks so much for taking the time. I know you have a hard stop
now, so I definitely will have to have you back on soon. Everyone should follow Daniel Davis Deep Dive and they can follow that in the video description below after the show. Thanks for having me on. You have a good time. See you, Patrick. All right. Take care. Take care. Bye. Chapter 8: Internal rot and controversial policies All right, Patrick. Well, one thing I wanted to I know that you mentioned this to
me uh for the show and so I wanted to we can dive right into it. I don't know if you saw when you mentioned the uh firing squad that's going to happen December 3rd. Um soldiers, US troops are already looking for a way out. They're trying to file religious exemptions for this. They say hundreds are already doing that. But maybe you can outline exactly what's going on here. This is like the
internal rot I feel like because you have the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. They're all engaged in wars of aggression of some kind, many actually. Uh but they are all also experiencing an internal rot. And I don't think there's a story uh bigger than this one that demonstrates that. So to you uh I think you know looking at this story and thanks for bringing this up Daniel. So, I would have been
great to have this uh conversation with Daniel Davis, of course, uh because it is a military execution. Um but um we can have that conversation with with with Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis at another moment, but it's it's it's unprecedented. Um this isn't a public this isn't like another public execution. By the way, the United States did away with public e executions long time ago. Um, the last one was in 1937 and
the but the the the one that sealed the fate of public executions was in 1936. Okay. What's interesting is nobody cites the 1937 execution because it was a white man. Uh, his name was Rosco Red Jackson. He was a serial killer type character, naturalborn killers type. Uh, would hitchhike and then kill, you know, brutally murder people. Uh but you know what's interesting as a white man in 1937 the audience of his
public execution this was before television broadcasting obviously um but the audience was 500 people okay the one that people cite as the last public execution is Rainey Bethea that was in 1936 he was a black man and he uh was convicted of a brutal uh uh rape and murder of a 70-year-old white woman who he uh was his employer apparently as the story goes. But there were 20,000 people at that public
execution. So there was absolutely a racial element to it. This is unavoidable. Okay. And the reason it was it was a disaster is because they turned it into a circus carnival-like atmosphere. It was a huge embarrassment to the local government. uh it became chaotic and uh the Roosevelt administration obviously was not happy because it painted the US in a very bad light internationally. Uh it was just bread and circuses uh on
on crack basically a total total mess. So you have the same thing here. If if if Nadal Hassan was a white Christian and he had just blown a fuse, you know, uh and on the military base did a mass shooting, uh would would would Pete Hagsath want to live stream the execution? Let's be honest, okay, the answer is absolutely not. Would Hassan was convicted in 2013. He's been appealing his death sentence,
okay, by firing squad to milit military doesn't do public executions. There's never been a time when it's been public. It's only to assembled ranks of officers and it's usually for uh you know desertion, uh treason, uh disciplinary type things that that would be the normal state. So this is different. Okay, this would if it's live streams, it's not to an audience of 20,000. It's not to a US audience. It's global. It's
global. So, uh, and and Hegathth, uh, the unhinged tattoo laden Christian soldier, Pete Hegathth, who really has crusader iconography tattooed all over his body. Okay. He made a point to say, "This is a war on Islam." when he announced the uh when he announced the the the live streaming of this execution. I mean, where is this coming from? What are are the people of America demanding a live streaming of a military
execution? Uh and then the guy who's calling for it, the self-styled secretary of war is saying, uh this is is radical Islamic terror and and so forth, basically painting Nadal Hassan as a combatant. Well, if he's a combatant, then you know, consider an act of war. But do you publicly execute uh combatants on live streaming? Does the US government do that? No. Who does that? ISIS does that. ISIS does it. Other
other sort of terrorist organizations like to do that. We decry Saudi Arabia, but they don't even do public executions in Saudi Arabia. They they surely cut they cut off a lot of heads. And we say that's barbaric. But but so what is going on here? I'll tell you what's going on. And he named the date. December 3rd. Okay. That this is an an incitement. This is attempted incitement. Pete Seth, where is
this coming from? You know where this is coming from. Listen to the speech of Benjamin Netanyahu at the UN General Assembly. He's basically telling America, he's telling the world, he tells Europe in all the speeches when he gives speeches in Europe that Israel is engaged in a clash of civilizations and that they are a western proxy holding the gates of Vienna against these Muslim hordes and the Arab hordes. That is absolutely
the Netanyahu line. That is the smallest Bengavir far-right Israeli line. that is uh the so the Israel lobby you have to we have to assume that this is not coming from Pete Hegsth alone he'll willingly go forward with this to to but to what end behind him I believe are Zionist and Israeli forces that are egging this on and and and also that Trump of course is game for any bread and
circuses as we know um so think about what will happen Daniel do you remember the innocence of Muslims, the YouTube film in 2012. Remember, so that well that that sparked off some Muslim riots around the world. Okay. Now, was blamed for the sacking of the US CIA station in Benghazi at the time and the death of Christopher Stevens and you know burning of the US embassy. It turns out that that wasn't
the sole reason for the destruction of the US embassy in Benghazi. Okay. At the time, Hillary Clinton used that as an excuse at the beginning. Said it was a YouTube video. The guy who made that film was a very shady uh posed as as an Israeli. Claimed he had Israeli funding to make the film. He was a convicted felon. Why on earth was he making this weird film that got released? Clearly,
this was an op. No, we we don't know for sure what kind of an op it was, but we can be sure it was an op. So, if you if the date's been set, Dan, uh, Danny, for for December 3rd, and you know what's going to happen, it's going to be brush fire when this goes when this goes on YouTube. All the racists, Elon Musk will put this to the top. All
of the Islamophobic stuff, all of the it'll be vile. It'll be chaotic. It'll be like the execution of Rainey Beth in in 1936, but extrapolated over the global internet. Okay? racedriven uh uh clash of civilizations fueling sectarian division eight all of that okay it shouldn't happen it there's no reason for it to happen so I'm left to conclude and other smart commentators have picked this up that it is happening for a
reason and that this will be you you could very the US could very easily spark a riot in a country like Iraq for instance right right an Arab nationalist country where the US doesn't like the government. This could be used to spark unrest and some kind of chaotic series of events uh in in a lot of European cities. This is the race war. This is the religious war that the farright have
been begging for and they're going to Pete Hagsth is going to deliver it. He himself is an end times dispensationalist. He's a Christian Zionist fanatic. He believes in rebuilding the third temple on top of the Alexa. So Pete Hexath believes they need to destroy the Alexa mosque, most holy site, third most holy site in Islam to build the third temple and make the prophecy uh the the Zionist prophecy uh materialize. He
is a member of that cult. He was selected to be defense minister, secretary of war by the Israeli lobby and they lobbied heavy to senators to confirm him because of that. I that's that's what I am concluding from this. This is a moment, right? That's coming. This is a moment. This is now a train that is heading down the tracks. They've set the date. And you know, if if if you wanted
to create some kind of a major religious conflration or to rev up both sides or to make an excuse for a false flag Islamic terror event in the West, this would be it. This is that moment. And then that would be a nuclear retaliation by the US and Israel against Iran or whatever. You can kind of just imagine this is insane. And so if this is insane, what what is being proposed
here, then you have to believe that everything that comes after that is going to be even more insane. So I'm I'm saying this this could be a disaster. I hope I'm wrong. I hope they call it off. I hope no soldiers show up with their rifles to want to do this exhibitionism in the most grotesque exhibitionism with the ring leader being a massive exhibitionist himself, Pete Hex. Literally, he is he is
an exhibitionist. He's always got his sleeves rolled up. So, he show his tattoos. You notice this? Totally insecure. He's always projecting this image. He's got infidel tattooed on the inside of his right bicep in Arabic to to to project that he is uh fighting the Muslims. Basically, that's what that is. that he's the devil in their he's he's thinks he's projecting fear into the eyes and minds of Muslims by having infidel
tattooed in Arabic right on his right bicep. This is sick. Okay, this is a deranged individual. He's been put in a very powerful position and now he's about to press the button of something extremely volatile and the president is backing him. The Israeli lobby are gleefully giddy ringing their hands behind the scenes. I'm telling you right now. So what have they got planned after around December 3rd? What have they got planned?
Because this is not happening by uh coincidence. And I'm just saying this and people can believe me or not, but this is extraordinary. The fact that this is going to happen or is people are even talking about it to me is extraordinary. It's such a departure from uh the decorum and normal kind of integrity and avoiding these kind of, you know, grotesque uh public executions. I mean, what the f Yeah. This
is a moment in history for America. If you can't find your moral compass right now, Americans, then I I I wouldn't have a lot of uh confidence that you can hold the country together in the future. I'm sorry, but that's, you know, this is not the America that I was educated and raised to understand and to respect. And the the these do not reflect American values at all. For a I think
the majority of Americans would agree with me, but a lot of people are just either too uh I don't know, intoxicated uh you know, desensitized. Yeah. Uh on Stockholm syndrome, despondent. Who knows? I I don't know. But but this is a moment. This is a moment. And the Democrats better pull the damn finger out if they want to do something about it. They could easily This could easily be derailed, by the
way. Oh, yeah. Especially after the midterms, too. Yeah. If people if people and before the midterms. Yep. So I Daniel, it's uh Danny, this is just something that you know I I just cited a very very important point of history for people to in a pre- internet pre- television. Um this is why we got rid of these things, but we've never had a military one. This is unprecedented. This is a break
from protocol and I believe it's way outside of the bounds of the US military. Way outside. This was a crime. this that that means why why is he doing it Danny? This is a political stunt. There is no other reason. There's no legal reason. There's no deterrent reason because how often does that happen on a US base? Once once in 300 years. So there's no deterrent value to it whatsoever. This is
incitement. This is incitement. I I'm 100% certain of this and people should not people should not uh give this they should not let this let this go easily and allow these people to steamroll our our values our morals uh potentially world peace as a result and you're empowering some of the darkest forces I'm telling you uh by going down this road it's not a road you want to go down America I
can tell you Yeah, very well said Patrick and it also builds this interesting chain of events which uh as you said will have global ramifications. We had the RAF incident in the UK. Then we had the Fly Dubai. And many of those, many people would say that those incidents, you know, relatively small, didn't pan out to really anything. But it builds a an 55 minutesatmosphere for something bigger. And should this go
through, it certainly would be bigger and uh uh really, as you said, stir the pot in sight and uh give the United States and Israel, at least the uh the regimes, the elites, a big terrain to um you know, plausibly deny whatever reaction is. Look how look how far behind the eight-ball is Israel in terms of its public uh polling uh approval support. It's cratered. It's tanked. So they're really in a
hole, I think. Uh and so imagine if they uh then some, you know, as if by magic some kind of Islamic false flag attack happens in America or Europe or something uh and then there's some vicious response from the US uh to against Iran probably most likely it would be Iran. Uh they'd be blamed an Iranian terror attack or something. It would completely reverse the fortunes of Israel. um and it would
bury everything else under another heap of ash. Uh and and move on business as usual. Let the wars continue. So that that that's kind of what you're risking here. And we're we're we're troubleshooting this potential possibilities, but you can be sure that somebody is calculating uh very carefully what they might be able to get away with uh under the you know the the cloud, the mayhem of of that kind of a
global event. So that's what I'm telling people to really bear in mind here. Yeah. uh and it's really important too that it's the Israeli regime is has seen its stock crater around the world and you know the United States not its regime both domestically and abroad also uh having huge legitimacy problems so there is incentive on every side here uh and we know that it's all aligning with the fact that you
have so you have this whole region now of the world that is such a focal point for the US Empire and for Israel. And uh they both are demonstrating that they have no interest in um pulling back and uh doing what the Trump administration, Donald Trump himself uh was campaigning on for so long, which is uh which is to stop the wars and the waste and all this. No, no, it's now
we can now you know this is all a mask off moment, Patrick. And uh we know we're at the last couple minutes here. Do you have any final comments before we start closing out the show? Um no, I mean there's a lot of things that we could um extrapolate on and analyze some crazy comments by uh by the president. I mean the the one that comes to mind that's just complete patently
insane is him saying that uh well, you know, we might have to sacrifice Los Angeles or San Diego. Uh he's talking about what a nuclear attack from Iran. What the but what the hell is he talking about? Like he's confabulating different things in his head, but he makes these statements to the press. What exactly is he talking about? Well, would would US long-range bombers be launched from San Diego or, you know,
Los Angeles or long-range nuclear bombers if they did bomb Iran? Uh, is that what he's referring to? Uh, because these comments just they don't make any sense. He's not really pulled up on them properly, but there's all sorts of messaging going on. It's a very strange 59 minutescomment that he made and people will say, "Well, because they're liberal cities and not necessarily. There's a lot of conservatives in San Diego. I can
tell you right now, Orange County, San Diego, that's a conservative hotbed of California, by the way." Um, so I I don't think you could make a partisan uh analysis to somehow frame Trump's statement there, but nonetheless, it's a kind of reckless uh nihilistic comment by a US president during a war situation where people are banning about the use of nuclear weapons. Uh, and the threshold has been considerably lowered on all sides.
Um it's disturbing to say the least. So um you know I'm I hope people don't get too uh enscconced in the upcoming election to forget about the other things that we really should also be paying attention to in addition to that. So um and this is one of them. It's never I the nuclear alarm in terms of the risk of something happening has never I think been higher than it is right
now save for maybe the Cuban missile crisis um historically. So people should bear that in mind especially people in Washington and uh Republicans and Democrats equally. Yeah, this was a great show, Patrick. Uh it was great to have Daniel Davis on the show with us. We'll have to do that again. We'll have to have you both back on uh very soon. I want to make sure everybody knows that both Daniel Davis
deep dive, but also uh your show Patrick 21st Century Wire in the video description below as well as your Substack. So everyone should check that out after the show. Make sure you support Patrick's work um as well as Daniel. Thanks for the super chat. Thanks to all the moderators. There are quite a few of you uh here today. So I appreciate all of your help in the chat. Be sure to hit
the like button before you go. I'll be back tomorrow with Alistister Crook at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. So, a bit earlier tomorrow. So, catch me in the morning, 10 a.m. Eastern, uh, with Alistister Crook. All right, everybody. Patrick and I are going to be out of here, but Patrick will be back on soon to continue the conversation.
-
admin
- Site Admin
- Posts: 41616
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am
Re: PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE
Trump’s New Press Secretary Has Disastrous First Day & Guillermo Booted from Dancing with the Stars!
Jimmy Kimmel Live
Oct 13, 2026 #Kimmel
Today was the first day of kindergarten for Trump’s new White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia, we say goodbye to Don Jr’s ex Kimberly Guilfoyle as Ambassador to Greece, Trump made a stop in Ohio where he riffed incoherently with help from Jake Paul, and Jimmy chats with Guillermo and his partner Witney Carson after they were voted off of Dancing with the Stars.
Transcript
Chapter 1: Opening monologue Thank you for the host. Thanks for watching at our studio in Hollywood, California. Thank you. Where the the stars come out at night. We um uh and the street the heavily bedazzled pants of those bold enough to dance are everywhere including our our g friendmo who is uh well we'll update you on what's going on with GMO in just a minute because he's
down the road from us in television city cooling down after turning up the heat. You saw his dance. We watch it. We don't know what the results are. We just know that he danced and we know he got his highest score ever. But before we get to that, I want to I want to Chapter 2: The new press secretary introduce you to uh the new kid in Trump land. It was the
first day of kindergarten for the new White House press secretary, Katie Zachariah. You know, Trump's been president for quite a long time now. I think it's been about what 50 60 years. And in order to keep him awake and interested, every six months they bring in a new fawning blonde adult to add to the rotation. Things did not get off to a great start for Malibu Katie today. Her first briefing was
brief. It was only long, but even in that short time, she accomplished exactly what she was brought in to do, which is slobber a whole tube of lip gloss all over the president's behind. I am so honored to work for President Trump and the American people as the new White House press secretary. I want to thank President Trump for his trust that he has placed in me. I have wanted to work
for him for a very long time. Wanted to work for him for a very long time. And really, that's all it takes nowadays. All it takes is that and dressing like you're about to announce pre-boarding on a Delta Airlines flight. We are in the middle of the midterm blitz with energy and excitement never seen before in the history of midterms thanks to President Trump. Just look no further than last night in
Youngstown, Ohio, where President Trump delivered another blockbuster rally out on the trail. Her reading is good for an 11year-old. He hired a fourth grader to be press secretary. This um Katie Zachariah is a real piece of work. She made her name calling Democrats pedophiles on social media and giving way to Pizzagate. So, I'm sure she'll immediately call for everyone named in the Trump Epstein files to be punished to the full extent
of the law. She was also a talking head for a number of cable networks where she charmed the president from afar with a wide variety of piping hot takes like these. The abortion pill has the same chemicals that they used in the exterminate, you know, exterminatement camps in Nazi Germany when he lost to Biden. You know, like he didn't lose. That election was was fraudulent. This is the type of Nazi style
propaganda that happened that turned people against each other during and and what led to World War II. And and Anthony Fouchy was very versed in this. Jimmy Kimmel is a is a laughingtock. They want to quietly rewrite history and tell us all that actually that a biological female is is Achilles and and we're all supposed to accept it. No. Nobody's going to go see this woke movie and it's going to be
a box office bust and they're going to make zero money on it. No. Well, that woke movie went on to make $1.8 billion. We got a smart one here. After her press conference this morning, a lot of people, including insiders at the White House, are said to be wondering how long this woman's going to last. But I'll tell you what, if she keeps talking like this, I have a feeling she'll be
around for a long time to come. The idea of not spending evenings with my kid is kids are is completely uh unacceptable. So, my president, excuse me, my husband. Uh, that's a that's a good one. Oops. Somebody's going to wake up in the middle of the night tonight to eye with Natalie Harp clutching a kitchen knife. Chapter 3: Questioning credentials Katie's first outing was, as her boss might say, a total disaster.
I was impressed, though. You know how hard it is to become Trump's worst press secretary that quickly? And this is pretty funny. Trump's been saying she's a lawyer. So today they were out at the gaggle and a reporter asked where she's licensed to practice law which is a question the president based on this reaction you will see also forgot to ask. He said she's in attorney. Where did she pass the bar
exam? Which state? Where did she tell us attorney? China. Where did you pass? Where did you pass the bar exam? Mr. President, he's like oh boy. Even my press secretary is made in China. Come on now. He didn't. I have a feeling the only bar she passed is from Dry Bar. Okay. The White House was asked for clarification later in the day and would not say where or even whether she passed
the bar. Say what you like about the Trump administration. They do such a good job of vetting people. But sadly, when one marginally qualified former cable newser makes her MAGA debut, we say goodbye to another. Chapter 4: Kimberly Guilfoyle's exit In this case, our now former ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Gilfoil. The president said yesterday to reporters that he is considering firing her. Do you know a timeline for that? Uh, we have
asked Ambassador Gilfoil to resign. She has been a wonderful asset to the team and we wish her well. She's been a wonderful asset to the team and you will never see her again. As you may or may 6 minutesnot know, Kimberly Gilfoil, one-time fiance to Don Jr., got a ticket to Greece when she and the Trump boy broke up. They made her ambassador thousands of miles away to get rid of her.
A Trump donor revealed that uh text in which she asked him to pay her $100,000 credit card bill and now as a result of that, she is out. This president will not tolerate corruption in his administration unless he benefits directly from it. Gilfoil denies the allegations and Trump is busy denying even more than that. Only Gilfoil, she was almost a member of your family. How surprised were you to learn about these
allegations? What did No, she wasn't a member of my family. She uh I guess dated my son a long time ago, but she doesn't know. No. No. I guess to be clear, not only did she, I guess, date your son for 6 years. They were engaged to be married. They broke up two years ago and you sent her to Greece to get rid of her. Poor Kimberly Gilfo. You know, she's the
first woman ever to get dumped by Donald Trump Jr. and Donald Trump. She got the double Trump dump and and that's got to hurt. He issued a statement today saying, "While my time as ambassador may be coming to an end, my commitment to President Trump, the America first movement, and the country I love will never end." You almost have to feel bad for Donald Trump himself took a $400 million plane from
Qatar. He's made billions of dollars in crypto. His sons have made billions in crypto. Jared Jiren and Ivanka took billions from the Saudis. Melania gets big checks from Amazon. They're all cashing in. All she did is ask a donor to pay off her credit card bill. She's like, "What did I do wrong?" Wrong. But that's how it goes with these people. They fall by the wayside while the annoying orange marches on.
Trump Shella made a a stop Chapter 5: Trump rallies and supporters in Alaska today. He was in Youngstown, Ohio last night where he rifted incoherently on one of his many favorite hoaxes. In 12 years, we will all be dead from global warming. Well, that didn't happen. In fact, we had a lot of cooling and the ice is now bigger than it's ever been. For some reason, it grew a lot. So, the
word warming didn't work. So, they didn't want to use the word cooling. So, what did they do? Climate change. We have a new term. Climate change. I don't know. I feel like that one has been around a while, right? Climate change. Trump, as you know, has been languishing in the popularity department. His approval rating is now uh right around somewhere between wet socks and spinal menitis. And so he's been bringing in
stars to prop him up on the road. Friday it was Mike Tyson uh followed by celebrity boxer/influencer/political thinker Jake Paul. I get confused by the left, the protesters. Do they not have jobs? It's all they do. Just carry signs around while we're doing the work. I just No, no, no. I have a quick qu question for Jake. Are you under the impression that what you do is work? Last I checked, you
were promoting gambling apps and selling crypto tokens. What is your job being Logan Paul's brother? You You're selling body spray to people. These guys have done such a good job of deliluding themselves into thinking they're hardworking average Americans. And if you think, by the way, he's out of his nut, way do you get a load of the dummies who show up to see them? Is this your first Trump rally? Oh, absolutely
not. I've been to several rallies. I've been to January 6. I was down there supporting Trump for that. So, um, no, I've been a longtime Trump supporter. What would you say is your favorite uh Trump rally memory or Trump event that you've been to? What one stands out the most as you as a maybe January 6 stood out the most? Cuz I saw a lot of lefties. I saw a lot of
woke. January 6th is the one. Yeah. They say you never forget your first insurrection. Chapter 6: Guillermo's dance popularity All right, let's get to the main event now to the brightest star in all the universe, GMO, who has somehow against all odds made it to week five of Dancing with the Stars and is the toast of the internet. I mean, look at these are YouTube views for last week. GMO and his
partner Whitney had more than triple the views of their next. They are They're all over Facebook, Instagram, Tik Tok, and even good old-fashioned local TV. Well, he may not be elegant all the time, but Jimmy Kimmel's pal GMO is becoming the star on this season's Dancing with the Stars. GMO, America's sweetheart. I'm telling you, he just go go get GMO. Go GMO. Here is Gilmo Gilmo Rodriguez. Everyone loves him. He makes
me laugh. He's got the showmanship. Maybe he loves the dance stuff, but he and the charm. Yeah, it's about your heart. It's about entertainment and he does both. He has both. He's got such style and energy when he's dancing. And he is trying his best. He's obviously not a naturalb born dancer. GMO could win this whole thing. This is what people want to see. He's the worst of the worst. He's having
fun with it. People love him. Yes. He knows how to work the crowd, right? And I feel like this is what Dancing with the Stars should be. Exactly. That's what dancing at the stars should be. And I should say, not only is GMO and Fuego here in the United States, he's getting a lot of love from our neighbors to the north. Hi, GMO. I'm Jackson from Canada. And I and I'm voting
for you every time for for the Mirror Ball Trophy. And I want to come see you one day at the performance at Dancing with the Stars. and and I watch all your YouTube videos. Good luck. Bye. I never kids love GMO. It's a phenomenon cuz he's like a squishy come to life. You know, that young man is Jackson. He's almost as adorable as GMO himself. So, we sent him a personal message.
What is this? Hi, Jackson. I just want to say from the bottom of my heart, thank you for voting for me, okay? I'm dancing for you and I'm dancing for the people. Jackson, I love you. Me too, Dad. I am not GMO's dad. No, but I am just as proud of him as I am of my own children. Chapter 7: The final dance performance So, tonight, GMO and his partner Whitney danced
the salsa to Bad Bunny. The theme was the Super Bowl, and the halftime show was about as caliente as it gets. I thought now in my book that was an 11 out of 10, right? But let's see what those radical leftwing lunatic judges had to say. Kianne Inab Derek Huff five Jim Buck six with love is a five. All right. 22 out of 40 for your gray. I got 22. That's good.
All right. That's his highest score yet. But then it was time for the moment of truth. And once again, GMO was in the bottom two. And once again, he relied on you, the viewers, to pull him through. The couple going home is GMO and Whitney. Chapter 8: Post-elimination interview What a kick in the mirror balls. That's uh Let's go live now to GMO and Whitney who are standing by. Hi, guys. First
of all, this is an outrage. An absolute. Will you accept the results or will you take legal action? I think we should take a legal action. I think so. Yeah, absolutely. I'm ready. Well, Whitney, first of all, I want to say I I your choreography this season has been absolutely incredible. The situations you put Jeremo in really really impressive. I mean, honestly, you you took you have uh you taken this lump
of Play-Doh and you sculpted him into a masterpiece. What will you miss most about training GMO Whitney? Oh, man. I mean, everything. He is such a sweetheart. He is so beloved by everyone. Um, but now Jimmy, you and I don't have this weird custody battle. You can have him now. So, Oh, you're just giving him up like that, huh? I have I was thinking of just adopting you, too. And then we
can have a whole family here. Love that. Absolutely. I'm down. GMO, did you achieve what you set out to do? And um what did you set out to do? Jimmy, I say I was going to lose weight and I did lose weight. All right. You lost weight and you gained a pregnant friend. Well, yeah. Uh again, thank you Whitney for taking such good care of GMO throughout this. GMO, we are very
you have you have brought so much joy to so many and now we have nothing to look forward to ever again. No, this better not be how it goes in the midterms. I'll tell you that much. Well, thank you both. That was um a lot of fun. Whitney, you got to come to the show with GMO. All right. Will you come and visit with us? Oh, I will. Absolutely. I look forward
to meeting you. Thank you so much for the support. We cannot break this team up. Well, thank you very much. GMO and Whitney are dance. You know what? The people champions are dancing with the stars. We have a fun show tonight. Despite that, Kate Balant is here. Adrian Deleó is with the three and we'll be right back with Curtis Jackson. 50 Cent.
Jimmy Kimmel Live
Oct 13, 2026 #Kimmel
Today was the first day of kindergarten for Trump’s new White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia, we say goodbye to Don Jr’s ex Kimberly Guilfoyle as Ambassador to Greece, Trump made a stop in Ohio where he riffed incoherently with help from Jake Paul, and Jimmy chats with Guillermo and his partner Witney Carson after they were voted off of Dancing with the Stars.
Transcript
Chapter 1: Opening monologue Thank you for the host. Thanks for watching at our studio in Hollywood, California. Thank you. Where the the stars come out at night. We um uh and the street the heavily bedazzled pants of those bold enough to dance are everywhere including our our g friendmo who is uh well we'll update you on what's going on with GMO in just a minute because he's
down the road from us in television city cooling down after turning up the heat. You saw his dance. We watch it. We don't know what the results are. We just know that he danced and we know he got his highest score ever. But before we get to that, I want to I want to Chapter 2: The new press secretary introduce you to uh the new kid in Trump land. It was the
first day of kindergarten for the new White House press secretary, Katie Zachariah. You know, Trump's been president for quite a long time now. I think it's been about what 50 60 years. And in order to keep him awake and interested, every six months they bring in a new fawning blonde adult to add to the rotation. Things did not get off to a great start for Malibu Katie today. Her first briefing was
brief. It was only long, but even in that short time, she accomplished exactly what she was brought in to do, which is slobber a whole tube of lip gloss all over the president's behind. I am so honored to work for President Trump and the American people as the new White House press secretary. I want to thank President Trump for his trust that he has placed in me. I have wanted to work
for him for a very long time. Wanted to work for him for a very long time. And really, that's all it takes nowadays. All it takes is that and dressing like you're about to announce pre-boarding on a Delta Airlines flight. We are in the middle of the midterm blitz with energy and excitement never seen before in the history of midterms thanks to President Trump. Just look no further than last night in
Youngstown, Ohio, where President Trump delivered another blockbuster rally out on the trail. Her reading is good for an 11year-old. He hired a fourth grader to be press secretary. This um Katie Zachariah is a real piece of work. She made her name calling Democrats pedophiles on social media and giving way to Pizzagate. So, I'm sure she'll immediately call for everyone named in the Trump Epstein files to be punished to the full extent
of the law. She was also a talking head for a number of cable networks where she charmed the president from afar with a wide variety of piping hot takes like these. The abortion pill has the same chemicals that they used in the exterminate, you know, exterminatement camps in Nazi Germany when he lost to Biden. You know, like he didn't lose. That election was was fraudulent. This is the type of Nazi style
propaganda that happened that turned people against each other during and and what led to World War II. And and Anthony Fouchy was very versed in this. Jimmy Kimmel is a is a laughingtock. They want to quietly rewrite history and tell us all that actually that a biological female is is Achilles and and we're all supposed to accept it. No. Nobody's going to go see this woke movie and it's going to be
a box office bust and they're going to make zero money on it. No. Well, that woke movie went on to make $1.8 billion. We got a smart one here. After her press conference this morning, a lot of people, including insiders at the White House, are said to be wondering how long this woman's going to last. But I'll tell you what, if she keeps talking like this, I have a feeling she'll be
around for a long time to come. The idea of not spending evenings with my kid is kids are is completely uh unacceptable. So, my president, excuse me, my husband. Uh, that's a that's a good one. Oops. Somebody's going to wake up in the middle of the night tonight to eye with Natalie Harp clutching a kitchen knife. Chapter 3: Questioning credentials Katie's first outing was, as her boss might say, a total disaster.
I was impressed, though. You know how hard it is to become Trump's worst press secretary that quickly? And this is pretty funny. Trump's been saying she's a lawyer. So today they were out at the gaggle and a reporter asked where she's licensed to practice law which is a question the president based on this reaction you will see also forgot to ask. He said she's in attorney. Where did she pass the bar
exam? Which state? Where did she tell us attorney? China. Where did you pass? Where did you pass the bar exam? Mr. President, he's like oh boy. Even my press secretary is made in China. Come on now. He didn't. I have a feeling the only bar she passed is from Dry Bar. Okay. The White House was asked for clarification later in the day and would not say where or even whether she passed
the bar. Say what you like about the Trump administration. They do such a good job of vetting people. But sadly, when one marginally qualified former cable newser makes her MAGA debut, we say goodbye to another. Chapter 4: Kimberly Guilfoyle's exit In this case, our now former ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Gilfoil. The president said yesterday to reporters that he is considering firing her. Do you know a timeline for that? Uh, we have
asked Ambassador Gilfoil to resign. She has been a wonderful asset to the team and we wish her well. She's been a wonderful asset to the team and you will never see her again. As you may or may 6 minutesnot know, Kimberly Gilfoil, one-time fiance to Don Jr., got a ticket to Greece when she and the Trump boy broke up. They made her ambassador thousands of miles away to get rid of her.
A Trump donor revealed that uh text in which she asked him to pay her $100,000 credit card bill and now as a result of that, she is out. This president will not tolerate corruption in his administration unless he benefits directly from it. Gilfoil denies the allegations and Trump is busy denying even more than that. Only Gilfoil, she was almost a member of your family. How surprised were you to learn about these
allegations? What did No, she wasn't a member of my family. She uh I guess dated my son a long time ago, but she doesn't know. No. No. I guess to be clear, not only did she, I guess, date your son for 6 years. They were engaged to be married. They broke up two years ago and you sent her to Greece to get rid of her. Poor Kimberly Gilfo. You know, she's the
first woman ever to get dumped by Donald Trump Jr. and Donald Trump. She got the double Trump dump and and that's got to hurt. He issued a statement today saying, "While my time as ambassador may be coming to an end, my commitment to President Trump, the America first movement, and the country I love will never end." You almost have to feel bad for Donald Trump himself took a $400 million plane from
Qatar. He's made billions of dollars in crypto. His sons have made billions in crypto. Jared Jiren and Ivanka took billions from the Saudis. Melania gets big checks from Amazon. They're all cashing in. All she did is ask a donor to pay off her credit card bill. She's like, "What did I do wrong?" Wrong. But that's how it goes with these people. They fall by the wayside while the annoying orange marches on.
Trump Shella made a a stop Chapter 5: Trump rallies and supporters in Alaska today. He was in Youngstown, Ohio last night where he rifted incoherently on one of his many favorite hoaxes. In 12 years, we will all be dead from global warming. Well, that didn't happen. In fact, we had a lot of cooling and the ice is now bigger than it's ever been. For some reason, it grew a lot. So, the
word warming didn't work. So, they didn't want to use the word cooling. So, what did they do? Climate change. We have a new term. Climate change. I don't know. I feel like that one has been around a while, right? Climate change. Trump, as you know, has been languishing in the popularity department. His approval rating is now uh right around somewhere between wet socks and spinal menitis. And so he's been bringing in
stars to prop him up on the road. Friday it was Mike Tyson uh followed by celebrity boxer/influencer/political thinker Jake Paul. I get confused by the left, the protesters. Do they not have jobs? It's all they do. Just carry signs around while we're doing the work. I just No, no, no. I have a quick qu question for Jake. Are you under the impression that what you do is work? Last I checked, you
were promoting gambling apps and selling crypto tokens. What is your job being Logan Paul's brother? You You're selling body spray to people. These guys have done such a good job of deliluding themselves into thinking they're hardworking average Americans. And if you think, by the way, he's out of his nut, way do you get a load of the dummies who show up to see them? Is this your first Trump rally? Oh, absolutely
not. I've been to several rallies. I've been to January 6. I was down there supporting Trump for that. So, um, no, I've been a longtime Trump supporter. What would you say is your favorite uh Trump rally memory or Trump event that you've been to? What one stands out the most as you as a maybe January 6 stood out the most? Cuz I saw a lot of lefties. I saw a lot of
woke. January 6th is the one. Yeah. They say you never forget your first insurrection. Chapter 6: Guillermo's dance popularity All right, let's get to the main event now to the brightest star in all the universe, GMO, who has somehow against all odds made it to week five of Dancing with the Stars and is the toast of the internet. I mean, look at these are YouTube views for last week. GMO and his
partner Whitney had more than triple the views of their next. They are They're all over Facebook, Instagram, Tik Tok, and even good old-fashioned local TV. Well, he may not be elegant all the time, but Jimmy Kimmel's pal GMO is becoming the star on this season's Dancing with the Stars. GMO, America's sweetheart. I'm telling you, he just go go get GMO. Go GMO. Here is Gilmo Gilmo Rodriguez. Everyone loves him. He makes
me laugh. He's got the showmanship. Maybe he loves the dance stuff, but he and the charm. Yeah, it's about your heart. It's about entertainment and he does both. He has both. He's got such style and energy when he's dancing. And he is trying his best. He's obviously not a naturalb born dancer. GMO could win this whole thing. This is what people want to see. He's the worst of the worst. He's having
fun with it. People love him. Yes. He knows how to work the crowd, right? And I feel like this is what Dancing with the Stars should be. Exactly. That's what dancing at the stars should be. And I should say, not only is GMO and Fuego here in the United States, he's getting a lot of love from our neighbors to the north. Hi, GMO. I'm Jackson from Canada. And I and I'm voting
for you every time for for the Mirror Ball Trophy. And I want to come see you one day at the performance at Dancing with the Stars. and and I watch all your YouTube videos. Good luck. Bye. I never kids love GMO. It's a phenomenon cuz he's like a squishy come to life. You know, that young man is Jackson. He's almost as adorable as GMO himself. So, we sent him a personal message.
What is this? Hi, Jackson. I just want to say from the bottom of my heart, thank you for voting for me, okay? I'm dancing for you and I'm dancing for the people. Jackson, I love you. Me too, Dad. I am not GMO's dad. No, but I am just as proud of him as I am of my own children. Chapter 7: The final dance performance So, tonight, GMO and his partner Whitney danced
the salsa to Bad Bunny. The theme was the Super Bowl, and the halftime show was about as caliente as it gets. I thought now in my book that was an 11 out of 10, right? But let's see what those radical leftwing lunatic judges had to say. Kianne Inab Derek Huff five Jim Buck six with love is a five. All right. 22 out of 40 for your gray. I got 22. That's good.
All right. That's his highest score yet. But then it was time for the moment of truth. And once again, GMO was in the bottom two. And once again, he relied on you, the viewers, to pull him through. The couple going home is GMO and Whitney. Chapter 8: Post-elimination interview What a kick in the mirror balls. That's uh Let's go live now to GMO and Whitney who are standing by. Hi, guys. First
of all, this is an outrage. An absolute. Will you accept the results or will you take legal action? I think we should take a legal action. I think so. Yeah, absolutely. I'm ready. Well, Whitney, first of all, I want to say I I your choreography this season has been absolutely incredible. The situations you put Jeremo in really really impressive. I mean, honestly, you you took you have uh you taken this lump
of Play-Doh and you sculpted him into a masterpiece. What will you miss most about training GMO Whitney? Oh, man. I mean, everything. He is such a sweetheart. He is so beloved by everyone. Um, but now Jimmy, you and I don't have this weird custody battle. You can have him now. So, Oh, you're just giving him up like that, huh? I have I was thinking of just adopting you, too. And then we
can have a whole family here. Love that. Absolutely. I'm down. GMO, did you achieve what you set out to do? And um what did you set out to do? Jimmy, I say I was going to lose weight and I did lose weight. All right. You lost weight and you gained a pregnant friend. Well, yeah. Uh again, thank you Whitney for taking such good care of GMO throughout this. GMO, we are very
you have you have brought so much joy to so many and now we have nothing to look forward to ever again. No, this better not be how it goes in the midterms. I'll tell you that much. Well, thank you both. That was um a lot of fun. Whitney, you got to come to the show with GMO. All right. Will you come and visit with us? Oh, I will. Absolutely. I look forward
to meeting you. Thank you so much for the support. We cannot break this team up. Well, thank you very much. GMO and Whitney are dance. You know what? The people champions are dancing with the stars. We have a fun show tonight. Despite that, Kate Balant is here. Adrian Deleó is with the three and we'll be right back with Curtis Jackson. 50 Cent.
-
admin
- Site Admin
- Posts: 41616
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am
Re: PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE
Alastair Crooke: 420,000 Iranian Troops SHATTER US-Israeli War Plan, Yemen HITS ARAMCO
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 113 minutes ago #iran #yemen #trump
Renowned analyst Alastair Crooke brings his decades of diplomatic and intelligence experience in West Asia to break down reports of a coming Israeli attack greenlit by Trump as Iran amasses troops on its borders for a major ground response. Yemen is hitting the nerve center of the petrodollar hard, and the Saudi regime is on brink of collapse despite US and Israeli support.
Alastair Crooke is a former British diplomat and the Founder of the Conflicts Forum based in Beirut.
Transcript
Chapter 1: Regional tensions rising Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. It's Danny Hiong with Alistair Crook, former UK diplomat and geopolitical analyst author to go over the latest developments. Alistister, I wanted to begin with this report. So Iran is saying that you know it has mobilized 420,000 troops in recent weeks uh up as part of
its army to and has warned the United States in Israel that if a strike is to occur that uh it will and potentially consider uh committing ground incursions on neighboring countries. Now this comes as uh the United States and Israel have been deep talks about potential renewed strikes on Iran. Netanyahu, according to one US official, said uh that he uh or an American official told uh the media that Netanyahu spoke to
Trump about it several times in recent days, saying that Trump reported to Netanyahu that he could move forward and prepare without any real commitment, but that could mean any moment. And according to Israeli media, the same uh reports have been circulating that this strike could come before Israeli elections. Readiness drills, according to open source intelligence, have been happening over Syria and Iraq with Israeli fighter jets uh uh uh surging in that
area. And Donald Trump himself said at an Alaska rally yesterday, "Wait and see what we do to Iran. Wait, you'll wait till you see what we do to them cuz we sort of had it. You know, we've sort of had it. This is all coming as en pressure on energy markets is rapidly escalating as not only is Iran continue to enforce its control over the straight of Hormuz, but Yemen has retaliated
against Saudi aggression on Huda oil sites with new strikes on Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia. Alistister, what do you make of these reports about this uh renewed and coming uh escalation against Iran by the US and Israel, Iran's potential response and where it fits in the overall uh geopolitical uh landscape right now as this region is uh you know heating up even further uh with it seems like no end in sight
for the US, Israel and now we have Saudi Arabia of course with there as well. to you. Chapter 2: Military preparations Uh I think um one way or another we are heading towards um uh a big escalation in the region which will affect much of the region if not pretty well all of the region. Um and so I think um yes that it is quite likely this is going to happen and
certainly there is lots of indicators that Iran are preparing very much for that um they're doing all sorts of exercises there are exercises taking place they have been triing new missile systems um doing exercises triing these these missile systems Um they are doing training for this mobilization which you referred to which was to create a a total of a million men or woman um a force um that um were to be
start on exercises um in in Tel Aviv. Um uh I mean in Thran, I mean there are posters up advising people to go and learn how to use a a gun, how to also use a manpad against aircraft. And there are lots of signs that people are doing this and are taking this seriously and are joining up and preparation is underway. mobile energy um if systems are being um have being deployed
to airports and to um defense structures uh around Iran. So a lot of preparation for a major war is taking place in Iran. We can see that uh what about on the American side? Well, there is a lot of aircraft movement, but we've been saying that for some time now. It seems to be a bit repetitive. Um, a lot of them are tanker aircraft. Most of the fleet, I mean, that's the
carriers are really far distant now. They're standing off about uh uh at least um 100 kilometers off the shore of um Iran, which means their ability to um to use their deck fighters is quite limited because it would require some of them to be um refueled um as or before striking their targets because this is beyond capabilities, their capacity for a deck launched aircraft. So, um there are all sorts of signs
of something being prepared. Um what's happening in Israel? Chapter 3: Israeli election dynamics Well, in Israel, as you know, the election is going ahead. It's very fraught. um and Netanyahu um is relying heavily on some sort of incident in this period. There's a lot 6 minutesof claims that if there is a conflict or if um Israel is engaged in the war in some way, then the elections will be postponed or cancelled.
Um I think you recall I think I mentioned before um the Netanyahu actually got an agreement from Likood that if there was what he called security tension in the region then the elections could be cancelled. So um he also is very desperate about this election. It's really on a knife edge which way it's going to go. Uh it's not clear he might prevail or he might just simply be the biggest party
amongst many but not with a majority. Um there's a lot of twoing and throwing of parties into alliances with each other. Um, but basically if I were to sum up the situation, whatever the outcome of the election, the polls all show Israel heading to the far right. I don't normally like using the term far right or far left because I think they're abused, but in this case, I think it's appropriate. Um,
we're talking about um people on the right in Israel that are very far right and they seem to be gaining um support amongst the public. Um, and they may do well in in this election. Um, and that portends more problems. Already we've been told that Israel has warned that if there is in any event um an attack um by Iran or from Israel on Iran which provokes a a retaliation um then
they are going to go into le into Lebanon and they are going to not only take the areas they already have but they're going to take um more areas. they're going to extend the area uh under Israeli occupation. So, um overall a a sort of sense of great um uncertainty. Chapter 4: Saudi Arabia conflict The situation in in in Saudi is is is bad and getting worse. um the um Ansala uh
the if you like um the the forces from Sana have not only um are on the brink of going in and are actually slightly in Ty this key it's a sort of gateway town um on the west um which uh has mountains around it but it is the gateway to the south as well as the gateway to the interior. So if they take that, it will stop if you like um the
logistics and munitions going to um the forces near the Gulf of Aiden. Um and um uh uh these forces, these same if you like um Ansala forces have now dispersed completely. Um the gathering that was proclaimed about retaking Babal Mandab. They've been knocked for six and are out of the equation. They've largely gone. But what's happened and this is important is that now uh Anthala also their forces are on that um
coastline um near Aiden. So they're on the Gulf of Aiden. So they give that gives them a much bigger sort of window um uh in terms of vessels passing or vessels um heading into the Babal Mandab just as um Iran is attacking vessels now that are well off outside um the Hormos that are off Fujira or or off um um the the Omani coast. are in the in in the Gulf area
they are being attacked by um Iran. So it increases the extent if you like of attacks in Saudi inside Saudi Arabia the the infrastructure the is being severely attacked um on a daily basis. It seems there's not any intercept capability. Um all the interceptors have been concentrated uh on Riyad on the palaces um that um bin Salman uses. Um so there is not much um intercept uh capabilities. The airport has been
shut. Um Riyad airport international airport has been shut for a long time. is going to stay shut for a further time. I believe other airports have been uh uh affected and and just in the sort of latest news uh we hear that the Aramco headquarters has been uh struck and severely damaged um very severely damaged um according to to reports. So all of this is building up. It's it's getting um more
and more um if you like um widespread and um and um we wait to see what Mr. Trump will do. However, having said that, I don't think that that is necessarily how Iran sees it and probably not how Ansala see it because I think Iran um is is ready to escalate. It's not simply going to wait and wait for Trump and for the Americans to sort of get all their ducks in
line um for an attack on on Iran. Um they will either preempt it or they will attack first, I believe. Chapter 5: Energy market impact Well, Alistister, what's the significance and what does it mean when Iran says that it would consider ground incursions in neighboring countries? I mean, I've heard this before, but it seems that now we're at a stage where Iran is considering the where on the escalation or what kind
of uh cards it has not yet played that will uh further move Iran toward its goals because it, as you said, Iran's not going to wait around and they're obviously not looking at this war as a war that they want to continue forever and ever and ever onward like it is now. So what what is the significance when Iran says uh this in particular ground incursions in neighboring countries? Well, I think
you have to see it in the whole I mean there's been a big escalation um in Huz in that um Iran I mean I think attacked six vessels in yesterday or the day before in one day. Some of them are on fire, badly on fire. Some of them seem to have struck mines. Um I'm not sure exactly where, but these are big vessels. One of them is a container ship from UAE.
Um and what is different this time is that Iran is aiming for the engine room. before they fired drones that did certain amount of damage, but it was quite often superficial and it was intended to be a warning message. Turn around or else. Now they are attacking the engine rooms. And this changes things in a very great way because you know when the engine room is taken out like that. I mean
those vessels are not going to be repaired anywhere near that site. They'll probably have to go to Malaysia or India or somewhere and go into a dockyard for repairs taking them out of commission for many months probably. So I mean this is a has a big effect and has had a a big effect uh on um the the the now the the shipping costs. I mean even if you take it away
from HMO separately, I saw statistics that uh at the moment to hire a big tanker, one of these very large tankers for a voyage from America to China um is now costing about 80 million. I mean huge amounts. I mean, it's actually costing more than launching a one of um uh Elon Musk's rockets into space, which is slightly cheaper and probably about the price you could have bought a a vessel like
that before. I mean, this is rather ignored in the calculus by a lot of the commentators. You know, the shipping is becoming really problematic. the losses are high. The owners don't want to risk them. Um it's hard to get shipping. Uh and it's becoming hugely expensive. And so those um vessel those um if you like trading firms that do um trade and have commission vessels are passing on of course the costs
of this to for example the container owners and the contents of those containers are going to cost very much more by the time they reach a shop. um because this is what's happening. I think MK's MK has already put a special levy on um containers now. Nothing to do with the oil question. Uh this is to do with the fact that shipping has become so expensive. So we have all of that
taking place. Um and it's very um it it's increasing inflation and inflation uh the figures have just come out the United States and it's heading towards 4%. And um we will see the bond market reacting I imagine um to that um later today or tomorrow. So all of this is is creating a bigger crisis and the other crisis is really there is no diesel. I mean it's not just that there has
been um vessels stopped and there's been um a squeeze on hormuz on Middle East and middle distillates which is what you need for diesel or kerosene. But it is also because much of that is either in 18 minutesthe wrong place or net not with all or refineries that need a particular type of distillate cannot get it or there is no shipping to bring it to the place. So there really is I
mean the the the the amount of diesel sort of in inventory is really low if non-existent. I mean and I think you know a diesel crisis has been called for for Europe. What that'll mean we will have to see but in Europe everything moves by diesel. I mean in terms of you know delivery of goods to shops of food stuffs and things like that are all um moved by a diesel pod
um vehicles. So I mean it's it's getting worse in terms of the econ economy. Um but the tensions are growing. I mean the what's happening in Saudi Arabia is very serious. I mean the infrastructure of Saudi Arabia is being destroyed. I mean its biggest field has been attacked um um on the the one of the east um eastern fields part of the large I mean a field that supplies 30% perhaps or
used to supply 30% of Saudi oil that has been attacked. So um all of these things come together um to because you know that that infrastructure is not going to be replaced cheaply or quickly. I mean there are bits of it you can replace quickly for sure but some of it is not things that you can buy off the shelf. I mean in the complex structures of refineries and so on, you
can't just order one and it'll come, you know, by courier the next day, it's not like that. They have to be made to order and they have to be custom made. So those will take, you know, perhaps a couple of years to to to supply, maybe longer. And um the cost of all this is going to be um very high. Uh so for Gulf states and for country like Saudi Arabia the
cost of replacing this is going to be um if they have the money going to be very high indeed. Chapter 6: Strategic geopolitical shifts Yeah. Well, uh, yeah, I I woke up to the reports about US inflation and that certainly does not comport with, uh, the aims of the Trump administration in at this time for sure. Uh, you know, that's a it's a massive number. I I think it's the highest in
the last half year. So, that is uh not not what they want to see for sure. But Alistister, um, where does the Saudi situation fit in all of this more broadly? Because the United States has been hesitant to directly help Saudi Arabia, more whatever they could do, more than what uh they already supply to Saudi Arabia. Israel has been reportedly wanting to enter this war, but with permission from Saudi Arabia, which
is strange. I thought though, Alistair, because Israel has struck Yemen in the past and did not ask for uh permission from Saudi Arabia to do this. So, it's it's a it's a it's a really uh interesting situation that might be hard for someone to understand. Where does it all fit the Saudi situation with the broader especially USIsraeli position in the region? Uh what what what's your thoughts on that? I think the
the first thought would be that um of course um the United States is concerned about what is happening in Saudi Arabia because it has been a major supplier of oil. Um but at the same time I think that they are quite hesitant about getting involved um in Saudi Arabia particularly against Ansala or the Houthis um because you know they they have experience of that they they they recall from their past engagements
that they're dealing with a tough ideologically um solid um tribal structure which enjoys massive support from its own people. Uh and it's going to be very difficult to see what exactly America can do. Um Ansala is using its main weapon very effectively which is the geography of the area. The geography of the area is it's like a sort of basin in the middle of the deserts and you know it doesn't matter
who who's in there they're not controlled really by anyone but then the mountains on the side of the Red Sea and the mountain key mountain areas are where Anala has its strength and way which they have seized and controlled. So if you like there on the rim of the bowl and sitting there in the mountain sides the you know the the the desert in the middle you can put a a row
of tanks into it and then you control it but the moment you take them out you don't control it any longer. It's not like uh you know gaining an a real military asset. So they have the commanding heights particularly in the north rant ties where they are entering into the town um and indeed also further further south although it's flatter further south near the Gulf of Aiden but they control um that
they're starting to move into the three provinces which are the the the the southern if you like um areas of Saudi Arabia but which Saudi Arabia took from Yemen in 34 um expropriated it but they are very closely linked directly to Houthis. I mean there are tribal links there to to the Houthies and so already the Houthies are are are at work in there and um I don't know exactly what the
how it's working out in the ground but as far as I understand it they are making uh further progress uh there. So where is this going? Well, I mean, of course, the the Houthies aims are to end the blockade, end the siege, and the airport siege. Uh, and um, Saudi Arabia, I believe, has offered them some sort of temporary ceasefire. Um, but they say no. I mean, the Houthies say no, we
want an end to this conflict completely. All of it has to be settled. It's very similar to, if you like, what's been happening uh with Iran. They say, "No, we're not doing a temporary fix. We've got to sort this out properly." And of course, this is too much, I think, humiliation for MBS to contemplate. So, it's probably not going to happen. So, therefore, we will see escalation. I mean, we are seeing
escalation even this evening. I mean it barely reaches the western press very much. It does but not much about it at all. But it is um the escalation is taking place now. Well, the only thing that might happen is that um um and I think so I think I was just starting to say that I think uh you know Trump will be not enthusiastic to go in because first of all he
knows who the Houthies are and that they're a formidable uh force. Um secondly uh I think he understands uh that this cannot be solved by air power alone. I mean, they've tried that and it doesn't work. All it does is usually end up by killing a lot of children and civilians in in in in the process, but doesn't change in any way the strategic situation. I think thirdly, any reason for going
in um if they did decide to go or or get involved directly, that would further increase the price of oil. Um and that would mean further increases in inflation. And the third element I think which is I mean what would they do? I mean how would the everyone keeps saying you know but doesn't follow it up with any clear indications of what they think or mean. They say yes well you know
America we must go in and support uh uh Mohammed bin Salman. But but how I mean what would they do? You know, it's not easy to drive, you know, a tough um hillside tribesmen out of their mountains. I mean, you know, you do this with infantry. You don't really do it with air. And you'd need a lot of boots on the ground, American boots, who would be at a great disadvantage against
um you know, the Houthies in in the mountain areas. clearly. So, I think for all those reasons, um, Trump is hesitant because it would also mean widening the war, which won't be good for the midterm elections. Now, there's the Iran war, there would be a new front, the the war in Saudi Arabia. None of that will be a good look for the midterm elections. So, I think he's hesitant. That doesn't mean
he won't do something. I don't know what because the alternative for him is that he could see uh um MBS, you know, sinking and losing control over the situation in Saudi Arabia and that wouldn't be good for him either. So, it's, you know, he's between a rock and a hard place on on Saudi Arabia. Whichever he chooses is likely not to be good for him in the election period. The calculus for
Netanyahu is slightly different. Netanyahu um absolutely would like America to come in and he said this explicitly um in the last day Netanyahu has said you know our objective is the complete destruction of Iran. They need to be destroyed completely. It's either them or us and we have to prevail in this war but we have to have this war to the end uh when one side or the other is destroyed. Now
that again is not exactly an appealing message to his own electorate. Um but so what he's doing is to sort of try and sort of push Trump along is to suggest that um Israel might join in with um um with Riyad um against um Ansala. But again, it's the same question. You know, they say, "Oh, well, we're going to send intelligence officers and some refueling planes." What is the use of intelligence
officers? We all know where the Houthies are. They're in the mountains surrounding the uh surrounding the the the the country. Um they are in the borders with um um of of Saudi Arabia. They are moving up the eastern borders because they have support from the Israelis um and the Zedis um on that side of the country too. Um so we everyone knows where they are but what are you going to do
about it? And the the Israelis, I mean, privately do admit that they uh that they, you know, that they know nothing about the command of um Ansala, that they know virtually nothing. You remember they took out the whole cabinet at one point. The Americans bombed it and the while the cabinet was sitting, the entire cabinet was killed just like that. Um uh it was a decapitation strike and yet the hooses just
continue on. Um so uh I I don't see really what um uh Israel can do. I they do have um Israeli intelligence officers uh operating in Riad with Sentcom with the American Sentcom forces there. So they're sitting there. It's apparently shocked some of the people who've been to Riyad to find that um the Israelis were setting in on all the intelligence meetings taking place, but they are there. But what they're going
to do is a different question. Yeah, that's that's for sure. Um, you know, Alistister, there have been reports now Chapter 7: Strait of Hormuz crisis too of I don't know if you saw this that a container vessel carrying more than 200 containers struck a naval mine and open source intelligence says that you can actually see uh these containers sinking uh to the bottom of uh the straight of moose um through imagery.
Now this is one of the larger container vessels. Uh this this keeps happening though. Either Iran is hitting these vessels or there are mines reportedly uh still in the straight of Hormuz along these uh this route that Iran said they were going to close which is the uh southern corridor quote unquote as it has been called along the Omani coast. What do you make of this? And uh when it comes to
the US and Israel in particular, um how sustainable is this to keep going on in this way? Uh the oil out of the straight of Hormuz and oil out of the region has dropped significantly even in just the last two weeks since Iran said that they were going to uh show essentially the United States that they did not in fact control the strait. Uh your your thoughts on this? Well, I do
think looking at the photographs that that big um container vessel hit a mine. It you can see the explosion taking place um sort of under the stern and coming up and out. So, it wasn't something from a a missile coming onto it. It was a mine underneath it. So um and the Iranians have said quite clearly that they have mined the non-authorized channels and um there has been this great argument taking
place in on the internet between uh those who be been proclaiming that you know no it's actually the Americans have succeeded in bringing out you know millions of barrels of oil a day and um others who say, "Well, well, actually, I mean, look at these images. I mean, we have images that show, you know, as I say, yesterday, just one day, six tankers were uh uh struck. Some of them are on
fire. Three of them, I think, have turned back. I mean, you know, it's not, you know, this isn't made up or invented. Whereas, you know, the stories of millions of barrels of oil coming through, where's the evidence of that? What do they say to prove it? Because most of these tankers have their transponder turned off so that you can't identify them. Well, they say, "Oh, this is comes from satellite images." Well,
whose satellite images? because actually it's very hard to get classified what are usually classified satellite images of this area during conflict governments and companies don't provide these sort of images for obvious reasons so I don't know where it comes from and I think a lot of this has been um played by you know the US Treasury and the commerce department um to try and manipulate the oil price. We all know now
that the oil price is is is regularly manipulated by um you know posts and in truth social and then announcements that the Iranians are about to cap capitulate and have been and are offering are are desperate for a solution. All of this is nonsense and and and noise and is best ignored. Um the the the reality is that there are no real negotiations. It's true that the Americans did proport did um
um suggest that they could accept some of the preconditions o of um the the seven preconditions that um Iran laid down. Um but uh from what I heard um the Iranian response has been this is completely unacceptable and we don't agree to it. So there's nothing moving in terms of the negotiations from the Iranian point of view. Either you accept the seven conditions in to there's no negotiations. And so at the
moment we're with no negotiations. And the aim I think of the I the talk about invading um the neighboring or other Gulf states um is is really all about the same strategy putting pressure on Trump in the leadup to these elections. not just putting pressure on him, but actually um threatening um his position at these polls that he that it may turn out very badly for him. Uh and to give him
put him in the in the situation of being in an extreme dilemma um you know that if he um if he does something more about Iran, it may worsen still further his position in the pulse. Um, so Iran is is is tightening the screws on Trump basically and they're tightening the screws on on the passage of oil because all of those stories were largely untrue. Yes, there were vessels that went through,
but many of them were um actually some of them were paid for. Um, in other words, you know, Gulf States even had bought the right to export one of their vessels through the um authorized Iranian passageway. And those have been counted as saying, you know, how clever, you know, people have been, you know, skipping through the the the straits. It wasn't at all. They just paid for it. Um, and other ones
have been going to Asia and they are paid for by chi China or or whatever. So, I mean that's what's been happening. Some of these ships have been passing through the straits. Most of them um have been passing through because they've been permitted by um uh uh uh Iran. They loosened it a little 39 minutesbit during the time that the Chinese um were meeting um with um Trump in the United States
when she was there um in order not to have a you know the wrong backdrop shall we say. But now they've tightened it up and as we can see the results burning vessels and the costs of vessels is just astronomic as they say just to to to rent one even if it's not going to Hormuz if it's going from the US to China. I mean the cost of that is fantastic and
all of that's going to be reflected to us in what we buy in the shops. Chapter 8: Missile development reports Alistister, there's this report uh in the Wall Street Journal, Drop Site News, uh commented on it. They said this. They said that Anzarala is trying to build its own version of Iran's Kyber Shakan missile, ballistic missile using Chinese-made parts, according to the Wall Street Journal. Um you know, in this article, because
it's my pay wall, I didn't pull it up. They uh they say that Iran provided a lot of support in the years that led to Ensurala uh building up its strength and now China is assisting them with the parts they need to even advance this ballistic missile arsenal further. What how would you react to this? There's there's all kinds of debates and I think just the fact that we have these debates
is a demonstration of how forceful and indeed powerful Ansar Allah has become. But what do you make of them? What do you make of these kind of reports in particular? You know, I think you treat them with huge caution, all of these reports, because really people do not know. And if there are people in the intelligence services who are leaking it, then they're leaking it for their own purposes. It it's selfserving.
It's not to so that we're all better informed about the situation. So I think we should treat all of these with uh extreme caution. Having said that, I would say that it is true uh that Ansala um their um missiles have been showing a much greater precision in this period. Now people are attributing it to all sorts of things whether it is you know new technical equipment or whether it is they're
using clawed AI to make sure that their missiles can um uh hit more accurately. I mean all sorts of rumors are going around. I think you should just ignore them. Look at look at what's happening on the ground. look at the ground and you can see that it is true something has happened um to the um to the Houthies. And I think you can see this in parallel to what I said
at the outset on on this um uh to this um call when I said that uh Iran for the last few days, four or five days has been triing new missile systems in Iran. um uh to try and integrate them into their wider radar and missile system. Well, I don't know where they come from. I mean, there are reports are that this is a new air defense mechanism that has been sent
by China. It's got a name. I don't know what it is. Uh forget it. Um but um you know the always in these cases the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Is it going to work? Are they going to Has there been a a step forward? Well, I think in with Ansala there has been the the their success and the accuracy and their ability, you know, to avoid whatever air
interceptors are used against them um is demonstrable. So, there is an improvement there. In Iran, I imagine we're going to see that. I Iran is very careful not to put all its cards on the table at the same time. They they treat them very very carefully and um allow them to be used only when the time is right and when a certain gain is going to result from the use of it.
So, they're not um I I don't think we're going to be shown everything that the Iranians uh have, all their capabilities at this point, but certainly we may as this thing escalates to a certain extent. I would say that, you know, Iranians what they're doing now is to taunt um uh Trump to literally taunt him and pressure him and embarrass him um and uh into doing something unwise um which will be
ultimately to their benefit they calculate. So, uh, we'll see. Are we going to see something, um, major take place? That's always a possibility. Um, you know, Trump has hinted at nuclear weapons at the General Assembly. Um, and others have talked about that, um, tactical tube weapons or or main mainline weapons. This is possible, but it's very difficult actually to to see a something a target that would change the strategic balance o
of this war. Um, you know, you can you can drop one on, you know, a city or something like that, but you kill just the inhabitants of the city. You don't necessarily change the whole strategic balance of the war. So I really don't know and there will be people even within the Pentagon who will object to the use of nuclear weapons. That's that's clear. There is going to be some. So I
don't know what weapons they can use um to to change the balance. Um but the main weapon that um Iran and Anzalah have is already apparent. It's in the inflation we're all feeling. It's in the fact that there's likely to be um rationing of diesels for people with diesel cars and things coming in in Europe because the inventories have gone to zero and no one has been prepared for it. The Europeans
have not really prepared anyone, not warned them that this is coming. you know, they've just blamed it first of all, and Trump has blamed it on first of all, you know, the the the war in Ukraine that it was Ukrainians at damaging the refineries in Russia. Um uh uh whereas, you know, that's really had only a marginal effect, if any, on on on the whole balance. Yes, Russia did produce a certain
amount of diesel and has exported a certain amount of diesel. Um, but it it wasn't it wouldn't have changed, you know, the inventory situation. I mean, we as the west as a whole, you use a huge amount of diesel every single day. That is not being replaced at the moment. Chapter 9: US-Israel policy rhetoric You know, uh, reports are Alistister that Pete Hegsth and Sentcom, I guess that means Bradley Cooper, are
the 47 minutesbiggest proponents right now of renewing attacks on Iran. Um, I'm wondering, you know, as we come to the last or so here, your reaction to these comments by Trump. Uh it's an interesting thing that he says comments like this at a campaign rally given the uh current polling numbers about the war in Iran. But here's what he said in Alaska. Short time ago, your country was dead. We never thought
it had a chance. They never did. They disrespected us. They laughed at us. They don't laugh anymore. Now they said, "Sir, you're the hottest country anywhere. Hottest country in the world. Where do you see what we do to Iran? We're going to do a number. They're just waiting. They're waiting. Wait, you see what we do to Iran? We sort of had it. We've had it. But, you know, it doesn't matter. The
big thing is they were not going to have a nuclear weapon and they won't. That's buried under thousands of tons of rock. So, uh, US has had it supposedly and wait till you see what happens. But uh that's generally the mood in the United States uh is not embracing of this kind of uh not just rhetoric but any potential action that might back it up now in the f or in the
future. So your reaction to this it's interesting approach by Trump. Uh how do you see it? There is something slightly worrying for me in this sort of um duet that is being played because you have Netanyahu in Israel and recently has been saying ah there's fresh intelligence that the Iranians are preparing a weapon a nuclear weapon. We have fresh intelligence. Now what is interesting about this is that the you know if
you look at the Hebrew press and the other things you'll see um that the military the security experts um just absolutely react against us and said there is no evidence of that Netanyahu is lying but he keeps saying this um and then as he says yes Iran is moving moving towards a weapon. Trump is saying, "And what's more, we will make sure they never have a weapon. Iran will never have a
nuclear weapon. Iran will never have a nuclear weapon." Um, and I'm slightly concerned about that given what he said at the UN about, you know, that he may have this hard decision coming up whether to annihilate uh Iran. Um, because, you know, anything goes today. You never know anything what people will choose to do or not do. I mean we don't have boundaries. We don't have a legal structure. We don't have
an ethical structure. It seems that however inhuman and however callous an action uh it's all right today to to to do this. So you we I am slightly you know I just note this sort of duet being played out between the two of them. Does it mean anything? Well, you never know with Trump. How do we know what what you know what he if anything? Uh I do think that for Netanyahu
it's more serious in a way. I mean you know Trump will either do better or worse in these elections. We'll find out. um soon enough. But for Netanyahu, you know, if he if he loses the election, he may go to to jail. Um but also for him, Iran is central. His whole, you know, his whole life has focused about the need to destroy Iran. his book is largely um uh preoccupied with
the uh of arguing about how Iran is the target that um Israel must destroy that it's an existential um element. So I I think we should be careful just not to sort of say well you know this is just bluster from Trump and Netanyahu. It maybe I certainly hope it is but I I don't think you know as I say we're in this sort of completely anarchctic geopolitical world now where you
know there is nothing that people will not do if it will advance their interests. So I think I think we have to be cautious uh uh uh about it. Um, but on the balance, I mean, it does come back to the same issue. So, what would you do with a nuclear weapon? I think you could try dropping one on pickaxe mountain. That would be the probably the most plausible thing to drop
it. It's a huge granite mountain. It would probably bounce off it. Um, it wouldn't destroy it. the the the platforms that Iran has within it or a thousand meters under the surface. Um but I mean it would be possible I suppose to drop it and have a big performance and you know images and you know video footage and Trump sitting in the situation room watching the televisions as the bomber drops this
bomb on Pickaxe Mountain. But but even if it has absolutely no effect, which you probably wouldn't, um because as I say, a granite mountains very hard to bomb even with a nuclear bomb. Um then, um so even if it has no effect, this could be the the way in which Trump can say, you see, I've done it. They'll never get a nuclear weapon. even if that's completely beside the point because we
still don't know where the 430 kilogram of enriched uranium are. They're hidden. Um Trump is still desperately trying to get to the point where the Iran he can negotiate the release of that into American custody. Iran is not going to hand that over that leverage to to to Trump. I believe. My last question to you Alistister is is are things so cynical in the sense that do you believe that right now
the United States in Israel in particular though Israel is waiting on the last minute election results to then conduct some kind of strike or operation that could uh postpone them because as you said earlier the results are very close. uh is do you believe that this could be the calculation on why we've heard talks and buildup and threats all throughout this month and uh yet uh that's what they've been so far.
I I think I'm not the person really to answer that effectively because in first of all that we have to wait and see. But it is quite possible that he could lose 55 minutesboth um the House of Representatives and the Senate. By lose I mean lose the majority. Now with the Senate that would be really important. Now, would that mean that for example, which hasn't happened so far, he's just been able
to ignore the Congress altogether? Trump has done what he was. He's pursued war against Iran. He's imposed tariffs. He's done pretty well whatever we want. And there's been absolutely no blowback from Congress at all. Uh no challenging him. Would the a poor result in the midterms affect that? Make it harder for people um for him to pursue a war on the basis of it. Um it's hard to say because as I
say, you know, you have to get someone who understands the legal nicities. But I think the new um Congress will not actually even take office though until late December. Um I don't not maybe it's early December. Um but I mean there is a period of time where there will be no congressional opposition. So yes, that is feasible. But to what extent I if there's been a shift in in the Congress and
in the Senate, will there be a real push back? I don't know and I slightly doubt it. I think they he will just uh ride rough shod over over Congress if he decides to do something against Iran. But I'm but I'm saying it will be something of a pirick victory. And I want to make that very clear. It will be peric for this reason. Iran, if it is attacked, even if it
is attacked by a nuclear weapon, has a system for a second strike, a dead hand system. all of their missile um um cities which are spread across all the different provinces of Iran have a structure and a set of instructions to the commanders of each one that if you lose all if you've lost all of the command structure has gone from Thran the communications have been severed then the attack on Israel
will continue. So in other words, if um the picture is envisaged that it will be that um uh the Trump will destroy annihilate as he put it Iran. He is condemning Israel to annihilation by the same token too. Well, Alistister, it's been a great program. I want to make sure everybody knows that Conflicts Form Substack, which uh you put together is in the video description below. So, everybody who watched today should
go there after the show and click and support uh your work as you trace these developments further. Everybody, hit the like button before you go. That helps boost the show and YouTube's algorithm. I'll be back tomorrow, 1:00 p.m. Eastern time, October 15th, with Larry Johnson and Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson. Thanks to the new member here, and thank you to everyone who moderated the chat today. And of course to everyone who viewed. Hit
the like button before you go. Alistister, do you have any final words before I hit endstream here? No, nothing more, I think. All right. Well, thank you so much and thanks everyone watching. I'll see you all tomorrow, October 15th. Bye-bye.
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 113 minutes ago #iran #yemen #trump
Renowned analyst Alastair Crooke brings his decades of diplomatic and intelligence experience in West Asia to break down reports of a coming Israeli attack greenlit by Trump as Iran amasses troops on its borders for a major ground response. Yemen is hitting the nerve center of the petrodollar hard, and the Saudi regime is on brink of collapse despite US and Israeli support.
Alastair Crooke is a former British diplomat and the Founder of the Conflicts Forum based in Beirut.
Transcript
Chapter 1: Regional tensions rising Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. It's Danny Hiong with Alistair Crook, former UK diplomat and geopolitical analyst author to go over the latest developments. Alistister, I wanted to begin with this report. So Iran is saying that you know it has mobilized 420,000 troops in recent weeks uh up as part of
its army to and has warned the United States in Israel that if a strike is to occur that uh it will and potentially consider uh committing ground incursions on neighboring countries. Now this comes as uh the United States and Israel have been deep talks about potential renewed strikes on Iran. Netanyahu, according to one US official, said uh that he uh or an American official told uh the media that Netanyahu spoke to
Trump about it several times in recent days, saying that Trump reported to Netanyahu that he could move forward and prepare without any real commitment, but that could mean any moment. And according to Israeli media, the same uh reports have been circulating that this strike could come before Israeli elections. Readiness drills, according to open source intelligence, have been happening over Syria and Iraq with Israeli fighter jets uh uh uh surging in that
area. And Donald Trump himself said at an Alaska rally yesterday, "Wait and see what we do to Iran. Wait, you'll wait till you see what we do to them cuz we sort of had it. You know, we've sort of had it. This is all coming as en pressure on energy markets is rapidly escalating as not only is Iran continue to enforce its control over the straight of Hormuz, but Yemen has retaliated
against Saudi aggression on Huda oil sites with new strikes on Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia. Alistister, what do you make of these reports about this uh renewed and coming uh escalation against Iran by the US and Israel, Iran's potential response and where it fits in the overall uh geopolitical uh landscape right now as this region is uh you know heating up even further uh with it seems like no end in sight
for the US, Israel and now we have Saudi Arabia of course with there as well. to you. Chapter 2: Military preparations Uh I think um one way or another we are heading towards um uh a big escalation in the region which will affect much of the region if not pretty well all of the region. Um and so I think um yes that it is quite likely this is going to happen and
certainly there is lots of indicators that Iran are preparing very much for that um they're doing all sorts of exercises there are exercises taking place they have been triing new missile systems um doing exercises triing these these missile systems Um they are doing training for this mobilization which you referred to which was to create a a total of a million men or woman um a force um that um were to be
start on exercises um in in Tel Aviv. Um uh I mean in Thran, I mean there are posters up advising people to go and learn how to use a a gun, how to also use a manpad against aircraft. And there are lots of signs that people are doing this and are taking this seriously and are joining up and preparation is underway. mobile energy um if systems are being um have being deployed
to airports and to um defense structures uh around Iran. So a lot of preparation for a major war is taking place in Iran. We can see that uh what about on the American side? Well, there is a lot of aircraft movement, but we've been saying that for some time now. It seems to be a bit repetitive. Um, a lot of them are tanker aircraft. Most of the fleet, I mean, that's the
carriers are really far distant now. They're standing off about uh uh at least um 100 kilometers off the shore of um Iran, which means their ability to um to use their deck fighters is quite limited because it would require some of them to be um refueled um as or before striking their targets because this is beyond capabilities, their capacity for a deck launched aircraft. So, um there are all sorts of signs
of something being prepared. Um what's happening in Israel? Chapter 3: Israeli election dynamics Well, in Israel, as you know, the election is going ahead. It's very fraught. um and Netanyahu um is relying heavily on some sort of incident in this period. There's a lot 6 minutesof claims that if there is a conflict or if um Israel is engaged in the war in some way, then the elections will be postponed or cancelled.
Um I think you recall I think I mentioned before um the Netanyahu actually got an agreement from Likood that if there was what he called security tension in the region then the elections could be cancelled. So um he also is very desperate about this election. It's really on a knife edge which way it's going to go. Uh it's not clear he might prevail or he might just simply be the biggest party
amongst many but not with a majority. Um there's a lot of twoing and throwing of parties into alliances with each other. Um, but basically if I were to sum up the situation, whatever the outcome of the election, the polls all show Israel heading to the far right. I don't normally like using the term far right or far left because I think they're abused, but in this case, I think it's appropriate. Um,
we're talking about um people on the right in Israel that are very far right and they seem to be gaining um support amongst the public. Um, and they may do well in in this election. Um, and that portends more problems. Already we've been told that Israel has warned that if there is in any event um an attack um by Iran or from Israel on Iran which provokes a a retaliation um then
they are going to go into le into Lebanon and they are going to not only take the areas they already have but they're going to take um more areas. they're going to extend the area uh under Israeli occupation. So, um overall a a sort of sense of great um uncertainty. Chapter 4: Saudi Arabia conflict The situation in in in Saudi is is is bad and getting worse. um the um Ansala uh
the if you like um the the forces from Sana have not only um are on the brink of going in and are actually slightly in Ty this key it's a sort of gateway town um on the west um which uh has mountains around it but it is the gateway to the south as well as the gateway to the interior. So if they take that, it will stop if you like um the
logistics and munitions going to um the forces near the Gulf of Aiden. Um and um uh uh these forces, these same if you like um Ansala forces have now dispersed completely. Um the gathering that was proclaimed about retaking Babal Mandab. They've been knocked for six and are out of the equation. They've largely gone. But what's happened and this is important is that now uh Anthala also their forces are on that um
coastline um near Aiden. So they're on the Gulf of Aiden. So they give that gives them a much bigger sort of window um uh in terms of vessels passing or vessels um heading into the Babal Mandab just as um Iran is attacking vessels now that are well off outside um the Hormos that are off Fujira or or off um um the the Omani coast. are in the in in the Gulf area
they are being attacked by um Iran. So it increases the extent if you like of attacks in Saudi inside Saudi Arabia the the infrastructure the is being severely attacked um on a daily basis. It seems there's not any intercept capability. Um all the interceptors have been concentrated uh on Riyad on the palaces um that um bin Salman uses. Um so there is not much um intercept uh capabilities. The airport has been
shut. Um Riyad airport international airport has been shut for a long time. is going to stay shut for a further time. I believe other airports have been uh uh affected and and just in the sort of latest news uh we hear that the Aramco headquarters has been uh struck and severely damaged um very severely damaged um according to to reports. So all of this is building up. It's it's getting um more
and more um if you like um widespread and um and um we wait to see what Mr. Trump will do. However, having said that, I don't think that that is necessarily how Iran sees it and probably not how Ansala see it because I think Iran um is is ready to escalate. It's not simply going to wait and wait for Trump and for the Americans to sort of get all their ducks in
line um for an attack on on Iran. Um they will either preempt it or they will attack first, I believe. Chapter 5: Energy market impact Well, Alistister, what's the significance and what does it mean when Iran says that it would consider ground incursions in neighboring countries? I mean, I've heard this before, but it seems that now we're at a stage where Iran is considering the where on the escalation or what kind
of uh cards it has not yet played that will uh further move Iran toward its goals because it, as you said, Iran's not going to wait around and they're obviously not looking at this war as a war that they want to continue forever and ever and ever onward like it is now. So what what is the significance when Iran says uh this in particular ground incursions in neighboring countries? Well, I think
you have to see it in the whole I mean there's been a big escalation um in Huz in that um Iran I mean I think attacked six vessels in yesterday or the day before in one day. Some of them are on fire, badly on fire. Some of them seem to have struck mines. Um I'm not sure exactly where, but these are big vessels. One of them is a container ship from UAE.
Um and what is different this time is that Iran is aiming for the engine room. before they fired drones that did certain amount of damage, but it was quite often superficial and it was intended to be a warning message. Turn around or else. Now they are attacking the engine rooms. And this changes things in a very great way because you know when the engine room is taken out like that. I mean
those vessels are not going to be repaired anywhere near that site. They'll probably have to go to Malaysia or India or somewhere and go into a dockyard for repairs taking them out of commission for many months probably. So I mean this is a has a big effect and has had a a big effect uh on um the the the now the the shipping costs. I mean even if you take it away
from HMO separately, I saw statistics that uh at the moment to hire a big tanker, one of these very large tankers for a voyage from America to China um is now costing about 80 million. I mean huge amounts. I mean, it's actually costing more than launching a one of um uh Elon Musk's rockets into space, which is slightly cheaper and probably about the price you could have bought a a vessel like
that before. I mean, this is rather ignored in the calculus by a lot of the commentators. You know, the shipping is becoming really problematic. the losses are high. The owners don't want to risk them. Um it's hard to get shipping. Uh and it's becoming hugely expensive. And so those um vessel those um if you like trading firms that do um trade and have commission vessels are passing on of course the costs
of this to for example the container owners and the contents of those containers are going to cost very much more by the time they reach a shop. um because this is what's happening. I think MK's MK has already put a special levy on um containers now. Nothing to do with the oil question. Uh this is to do with the fact that shipping has become so expensive. So we have all of that
taking place. Um and it's very um it it's increasing inflation and inflation uh the figures have just come out the United States and it's heading towards 4%. And um we will see the bond market reacting I imagine um to that um later today or tomorrow. So all of this is is creating a bigger crisis and the other crisis is really there is no diesel. I mean it's not just that there has
been um vessels stopped and there's been um a squeeze on hormuz on Middle East and middle distillates which is what you need for diesel or kerosene. But it is also because much of that is either in 18 minutesthe wrong place or net not with all or refineries that need a particular type of distillate cannot get it or there is no shipping to bring it to the place. So there really is I
mean the the the the amount of diesel sort of in inventory is really low if non-existent. I mean and I think you know a diesel crisis has been called for for Europe. What that'll mean we will have to see but in Europe everything moves by diesel. I mean in terms of you know delivery of goods to shops of food stuffs and things like that are all um moved by a diesel pod
um vehicles. So I mean it's it's getting worse in terms of the econ economy. Um but the tensions are growing. I mean the what's happening in Saudi Arabia is very serious. I mean the infrastructure of Saudi Arabia is being destroyed. I mean its biggest field has been attacked um um on the the one of the east um eastern fields part of the large I mean a field that supplies 30% perhaps or
used to supply 30% of Saudi oil that has been attacked. So um all of these things come together um to because you know that that infrastructure is not going to be replaced cheaply or quickly. I mean there are bits of it you can replace quickly for sure but some of it is not things that you can buy off the shelf. I mean in the complex structures of refineries and so on, you
can't just order one and it'll come, you know, by courier the next day, it's not like that. They have to be made to order and they have to be custom made. So those will take, you know, perhaps a couple of years to to to supply, maybe longer. And um the cost of all this is going to be um very high. Uh so for Gulf states and for country like Saudi Arabia the
cost of replacing this is going to be um if they have the money going to be very high indeed. Chapter 6: Strategic geopolitical shifts Yeah. Well, uh, yeah, I I woke up to the reports about US inflation and that certainly does not comport with, uh, the aims of the Trump administration in at this time for sure. Uh, you know, that's a it's a massive number. I I think it's the highest in
the last half year. So, that is uh not not what they want to see for sure. But Alistister, um, where does the Saudi situation fit in all of this more broadly? Because the United States has been hesitant to directly help Saudi Arabia, more whatever they could do, more than what uh they already supply to Saudi Arabia. Israel has been reportedly wanting to enter this war, but with permission from Saudi Arabia, which
is strange. I thought though, Alistair, because Israel has struck Yemen in the past and did not ask for uh permission from Saudi Arabia to do this. So, it's it's a it's a it's a really uh interesting situation that might be hard for someone to understand. Where does it all fit the Saudi situation with the broader especially USIsraeli position in the region? Uh what what what's your thoughts on that? I think the
the first thought would be that um of course um the United States is concerned about what is happening in Saudi Arabia because it has been a major supplier of oil. Um but at the same time I think that they are quite hesitant about getting involved um in Saudi Arabia particularly against Ansala or the Houthis um because you know they they have experience of that they they they recall from their past engagements
that they're dealing with a tough ideologically um solid um tribal structure which enjoys massive support from its own people. Uh and it's going to be very difficult to see what exactly America can do. Um Ansala is using its main weapon very effectively which is the geography of the area. The geography of the area is it's like a sort of basin in the middle of the deserts and you know it doesn't matter
who who's in there they're not controlled really by anyone but then the mountains on the side of the Red Sea and the mountain key mountain areas are where Anala has its strength and way which they have seized and controlled. So if you like there on the rim of the bowl and sitting there in the mountain sides the you know the the the desert in the middle you can put a a row
of tanks into it and then you control it but the moment you take them out you don't control it any longer. It's not like uh you know gaining an a real military asset. So they have the commanding heights particularly in the north rant ties where they are entering into the town um and indeed also further further south although it's flatter further south near the Gulf of Aiden but they control um that
they're starting to move into the three provinces which are the the the the southern if you like um areas of Saudi Arabia but which Saudi Arabia took from Yemen in 34 um expropriated it but they are very closely linked directly to Houthis. I mean there are tribal links there to to the Houthies and so already the Houthies are are are at work in there and um I don't know exactly what the
how it's working out in the ground but as far as I understand it they are making uh further progress uh there. So where is this going? Well, I mean, of course, the the Houthies aims are to end the blockade, end the siege, and the airport siege. Uh, and um, Saudi Arabia, I believe, has offered them some sort of temporary ceasefire. Um, but they say no. I mean, the Houthies say no, we
want an end to this conflict completely. All of it has to be settled. It's very similar to, if you like, what's been happening uh with Iran. They say, "No, we're not doing a temporary fix. We've got to sort this out properly." And of course, this is too much, I think, humiliation for MBS to contemplate. So, it's probably not going to happen. So, therefore, we will see escalation. I mean, we are seeing
escalation even this evening. I mean it barely reaches the western press very much. It does but not much about it at all. But it is um the escalation is taking place now. Well, the only thing that might happen is that um um and I think so I think I was just starting to say that I think uh you know Trump will be not enthusiastic to go in because first of all he
knows who the Houthies are and that they're a formidable uh force. Um secondly uh I think he understands uh that this cannot be solved by air power alone. I mean, they've tried that and it doesn't work. All it does is usually end up by killing a lot of children and civilians in in in in the process, but doesn't change in any way the strategic situation. I think thirdly, any reason for going
in um if they did decide to go or or get involved directly, that would further increase the price of oil. Um and that would mean further increases in inflation. And the third element I think which is I mean what would they do? I mean how would the everyone keeps saying you know but doesn't follow it up with any clear indications of what they think or mean. They say yes well you know
America we must go in and support uh uh Mohammed bin Salman. But but how I mean what would they do? You know, it's not easy to drive, you know, a tough um hillside tribesmen out of their mountains. I mean, you know, you do this with infantry. You don't really do it with air. And you'd need a lot of boots on the ground, American boots, who would be at a great disadvantage against
um you know, the Houthies in in the mountain areas. clearly. So, I think for all those reasons, um, Trump is hesitant because it would also mean widening the war, which won't be good for the midterm elections. Now, there's the Iran war, there would be a new front, the the war in Saudi Arabia. None of that will be a good look for the midterm elections. So, I think he's hesitant. That doesn't mean
he won't do something. I don't know what because the alternative for him is that he could see uh um MBS, you know, sinking and losing control over the situation in Saudi Arabia and that wouldn't be good for him either. So, it's, you know, he's between a rock and a hard place on on Saudi Arabia. Whichever he chooses is likely not to be good for him in the election period. The calculus for
Netanyahu is slightly different. Netanyahu um absolutely would like America to come in and he said this explicitly um in the last day Netanyahu has said you know our objective is the complete destruction of Iran. They need to be destroyed completely. It's either them or us and we have to prevail in this war but we have to have this war to the end uh when one side or the other is destroyed. Now
that again is not exactly an appealing message to his own electorate. Um but so what he's doing is to sort of try and sort of push Trump along is to suggest that um Israel might join in with um um with Riyad um against um Ansala. But again, it's the same question. You know, they say, "Oh, well, we're going to send intelligence officers and some refueling planes." What is the use of intelligence
officers? We all know where the Houthies are. They're in the mountains surrounding the uh surrounding the the the the country. Um they are in the borders with um um of of Saudi Arabia. They are moving up the eastern borders because they have support from the Israelis um and the Zedis um on that side of the country too. Um so we everyone knows where they are but what are you going to do
about it? And the the Israelis, I mean, privately do admit that they uh that they, you know, that they know nothing about the command of um Ansala, that they know virtually nothing. You remember they took out the whole cabinet at one point. The Americans bombed it and the while the cabinet was sitting, the entire cabinet was killed just like that. Um uh it was a decapitation strike and yet the hooses just
continue on. Um so uh I I don't see really what um uh Israel can do. I they do have um Israeli intelligence officers uh operating in Riad with Sentcom with the American Sentcom forces there. So they're sitting there. It's apparently shocked some of the people who've been to Riyad to find that um the Israelis were setting in on all the intelligence meetings taking place, but they are there. But what they're going
to do is a different question. Yeah, that's that's for sure. Um, you know, Alistister, there have been reports now Chapter 7: Strait of Hormuz crisis too of I don't know if you saw this that a container vessel carrying more than 200 containers struck a naval mine and open source intelligence says that you can actually see uh these containers sinking uh to the bottom of uh the straight of moose um through imagery.
Now this is one of the larger container vessels. Uh this this keeps happening though. Either Iran is hitting these vessels or there are mines reportedly uh still in the straight of Hormuz along these uh this route that Iran said they were going to close which is the uh southern corridor quote unquote as it has been called along the Omani coast. What do you make of this? And uh when it comes to
the US and Israel in particular, um how sustainable is this to keep going on in this way? Uh the oil out of the straight of Hormuz and oil out of the region has dropped significantly even in just the last two weeks since Iran said that they were going to uh show essentially the United States that they did not in fact control the strait. Uh your your thoughts on this? Well, I do
think looking at the photographs that that big um container vessel hit a mine. It you can see the explosion taking place um sort of under the stern and coming up and out. So, it wasn't something from a a missile coming onto it. It was a mine underneath it. So um and the Iranians have said quite clearly that they have mined the non-authorized channels and um there has been this great argument taking
place in on the internet between uh those who be been proclaiming that you know no it's actually the Americans have succeeded in bringing out you know millions of barrels of oil a day and um others who say, "Well, well, actually, I mean, look at these images. I mean, we have images that show, you know, as I say, yesterday, just one day, six tankers were uh uh struck. Some of them are on
fire. Three of them, I think, have turned back. I mean, you know, it's not, you know, this isn't made up or invented. Whereas, you know, the stories of millions of barrels of oil coming through, where's the evidence of that? What do they say to prove it? Because most of these tankers have their transponder turned off so that you can't identify them. Well, they say, "Oh, this is comes from satellite images." Well,
whose satellite images? because actually it's very hard to get classified what are usually classified satellite images of this area during conflict governments and companies don't provide these sort of images for obvious reasons so I don't know where it comes from and I think a lot of this has been um played by you know the US Treasury and the commerce department um to try and manipulate the oil price. We all know now
that the oil price is is is regularly manipulated by um you know posts and in truth social and then announcements that the Iranians are about to cap capitulate and have been and are offering are are desperate for a solution. All of this is nonsense and and and noise and is best ignored. Um the the the reality is that there are no real negotiations. It's true that the Americans did proport did um
um suggest that they could accept some of the preconditions o of um the the seven preconditions that um Iran laid down. Um but uh from what I heard um the Iranian response has been this is completely unacceptable and we don't agree to it. So there's nothing moving in terms of the negotiations from the Iranian point of view. Either you accept the seven conditions in to there's no negotiations. And so at the
moment we're with no negotiations. And the aim I think of the I the talk about invading um the neighboring or other Gulf states um is is really all about the same strategy putting pressure on Trump in the leadup to these elections. not just putting pressure on him, but actually um threatening um his position at these polls that he that it may turn out very badly for him. Uh and to give him
put him in the in the situation of being in an extreme dilemma um you know that if he um if he does something more about Iran, it may worsen still further his position in the pulse. Um, so Iran is is is tightening the screws on Trump basically and they're tightening the screws on on the passage of oil because all of those stories were largely untrue. Yes, there were vessels that went through,
but many of them were um actually some of them were paid for. Um, in other words, you know, Gulf States even had bought the right to export one of their vessels through the um authorized Iranian passageway. And those have been counted as saying, you know, how clever, you know, people have been, you know, skipping through the the the straits. It wasn't at all. They just paid for it. Um, and other ones
have been going to Asia and they are paid for by chi China or or whatever. So, I mean that's what's been happening. Some of these ships have been passing through the straits. Most of them um have been passing through because they've been permitted by um uh uh uh Iran. They loosened it a little 39 minutesbit during the time that the Chinese um were meeting um with um Trump in the United States
when she was there um in order not to have a you know the wrong backdrop shall we say. But now they've tightened it up and as we can see the results burning vessels and the costs of vessels is just astronomic as they say just to to to rent one even if it's not going to Hormuz if it's going from the US to China. I mean the cost of that is fantastic and
all of that's going to be reflected to us in what we buy in the shops. Chapter 8: Missile development reports Alistister, there's this report uh in the Wall Street Journal, Drop Site News, uh commented on it. They said this. They said that Anzarala is trying to build its own version of Iran's Kyber Shakan missile, ballistic missile using Chinese-made parts, according to the Wall Street Journal. Um you know, in this article, because
it's my pay wall, I didn't pull it up. They uh they say that Iran provided a lot of support in the years that led to Ensurala uh building up its strength and now China is assisting them with the parts they need to even advance this ballistic missile arsenal further. What how would you react to this? There's there's all kinds of debates and I think just the fact that we have these debates
is a demonstration of how forceful and indeed powerful Ansar Allah has become. But what do you make of them? What do you make of these kind of reports in particular? You know, I think you treat them with huge caution, all of these reports, because really people do not know. And if there are people in the intelligence services who are leaking it, then they're leaking it for their own purposes. It it's selfserving.
It's not to so that we're all better informed about the situation. So I think we should treat all of these with uh extreme caution. Having said that, I would say that it is true uh that Ansala um their um missiles have been showing a much greater precision in this period. Now people are attributing it to all sorts of things whether it is you know new technical equipment or whether it is they're
using clawed AI to make sure that their missiles can um uh hit more accurately. I mean all sorts of rumors are going around. I think you should just ignore them. Look at look at what's happening on the ground. look at the ground and you can see that it is true something has happened um to the um to the Houthies. And I think you can see this in parallel to what I said
at the outset on on this um uh to this um call when I said that uh Iran for the last few days, four or five days has been triing new missile systems in Iran. um uh to try and integrate them into their wider radar and missile system. Well, I don't know where they come from. I mean, there are reports are that this is a new air defense mechanism that has been sent
by China. It's got a name. I don't know what it is. Uh forget it. Um but um you know the always in these cases the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Is it going to work? Are they going to Has there been a a step forward? Well, I think in with Ansala there has been the the their success and the accuracy and their ability, you know, to avoid whatever air
interceptors are used against them um is demonstrable. So, there is an improvement there. In Iran, I imagine we're going to see that. I Iran is very careful not to put all its cards on the table at the same time. They they treat them very very carefully and um allow them to be used only when the time is right and when a certain gain is going to result from the use of it.
So, they're not um I I don't think we're going to be shown everything that the Iranians uh have, all their capabilities at this point, but certainly we may as this thing escalates to a certain extent. I would say that, you know, Iranians what they're doing now is to taunt um uh Trump to literally taunt him and pressure him and embarrass him um and uh into doing something unwise um which will be
ultimately to their benefit they calculate. So, uh, we'll see. Are we going to see something, um, major take place? That's always a possibility. Um, you know, Trump has hinted at nuclear weapons at the General Assembly. Um, and others have talked about that, um, tactical tube weapons or or main mainline weapons. This is possible, but it's very difficult actually to to see a something a target that would change the strategic balance o
of this war. Um, you know, you can you can drop one on, you know, a city or something like that, but you kill just the inhabitants of the city. You don't necessarily change the whole strategic balance of the war. So I really don't know and there will be people even within the Pentagon who will object to the use of nuclear weapons. That's that's clear. There is going to be some. So I
don't know what weapons they can use um to to change the balance. Um but the main weapon that um Iran and Anzalah have is already apparent. It's in the inflation we're all feeling. It's in the fact that there's likely to be um rationing of diesels for people with diesel cars and things coming in in Europe because the inventories have gone to zero and no one has been prepared for it. The Europeans
have not really prepared anyone, not warned them that this is coming. you know, they've just blamed it first of all, and Trump has blamed it on first of all, you know, the the the war in Ukraine that it was Ukrainians at damaging the refineries in Russia. Um uh uh whereas, you know, that's really had only a marginal effect, if any, on on on the whole balance. Yes, Russia did produce a certain
amount of diesel and has exported a certain amount of diesel. Um, but it it wasn't it wouldn't have changed, you know, the inventory situation. I mean, we as the west as a whole, you use a huge amount of diesel every single day. That is not being replaced at the moment. Chapter 9: US-Israel policy rhetoric You know, uh, reports are Alistister that Pete Hegsth and Sentcom, I guess that means Bradley Cooper, are
the 47 minutesbiggest proponents right now of renewing attacks on Iran. Um, I'm wondering, you know, as we come to the last or so here, your reaction to these comments by Trump. Uh it's an interesting thing that he says comments like this at a campaign rally given the uh current polling numbers about the war in Iran. But here's what he said in Alaska. Short time ago, your country was dead. We never thought
it had a chance. They never did. They disrespected us. They laughed at us. They don't laugh anymore. Now they said, "Sir, you're the hottest country anywhere. Hottest country in the world. Where do you see what we do to Iran? We're going to do a number. They're just waiting. They're waiting. Wait, you see what we do to Iran? We sort of had it. We've had it. But, you know, it doesn't matter. The
big thing is they were not going to have a nuclear weapon and they won't. That's buried under thousands of tons of rock. So, uh, US has had it supposedly and wait till you see what happens. But uh that's generally the mood in the United States uh is not embracing of this kind of uh not just rhetoric but any potential action that might back it up now in the f or in the
future. So your reaction to this it's interesting approach by Trump. Uh how do you see it? There is something slightly worrying for me in this sort of um duet that is being played because you have Netanyahu in Israel and recently has been saying ah there's fresh intelligence that the Iranians are preparing a weapon a nuclear weapon. We have fresh intelligence. Now what is interesting about this is that the you know if
you look at the Hebrew press and the other things you'll see um that the military the security experts um just absolutely react against us and said there is no evidence of that Netanyahu is lying but he keeps saying this um and then as he says yes Iran is moving moving towards a weapon. Trump is saying, "And what's more, we will make sure they never have a weapon. Iran will never have a
nuclear weapon. Iran will never have a nuclear weapon." Um, and I'm slightly concerned about that given what he said at the UN about, you know, that he may have this hard decision coming up whether to annihilate uh Iran. Um, because, you know, anything goes today. You never know anything what people will choose to do or not do. I mean we don't have boundaries. We don't have a legal structure. We don't have
an ethical structure. It seems that however inhuman and however callous an action uh it's all right today to to to do this. So you we I am slightly you know I just note this sort of duet being played out between the two of them. Does it mean anything? Well, you never know with Trump. How do we know what what you know what he if anything? Uh I do think that for Netanyahu
it's more serious in a way. I mean you know Trump will either do better or worse in these elections. We'll find out. um soon enough. But for Netanyahu, you know, if he if he loses the election, he may go to to jail. Um but also for him, Iran is central. His whole, you know, his whole life has focused about the need to destroy Iran. his book is largely um uh preoccupied with
the uh of arguing about how Iran is the target that um Israel must destroy that it's an existential um element. So I I think we should be careful just not to sort of say well you know this is just bluster from Trump and Netanyahu. It maybe I certainly hope it is but I I don't think you know as I say we're in this sort of completely anarchctic geopolitical world now where you
know there is nothing that people will not do if it will advance their interests. So I think I think we have to be cautious uh uh uh about it. Um, but on the balance, I mean, it does come back to the same issue. So, what would you do with a nuclear weapon? I think you could try dropping one on pickaxe mountain. That would be the probably the most plausible thing to drop
it. It's a huge granite mountain. It would probably bounce off it. Um, it wouldn't destroy it. the the the platforms that Iran has within it or a thousand meters under the surface. Um but I mean it would be possible I suppose to drop it and have a big performance and you know images and you know video footage and Trump sitting in the situation room watching the televisions as the bomber drops this
bomb on Pickaxe Mountain. But but even if it has absolutely no effect, which you probably wouldn't, um because as I say, a granite mountains very hard to bomb even with a nuclear bomb. Um then, um so even if it has no effect, this could be the the way in which Trump can say, you see, I've done it. They'll never get a nuclear weapon. even if that's completely beside the point because we
still don't know where the 430 kilogram of enriched uranium are. They're hidden. Um Trump is still desperately trying to get to the point where the Iran he can negotiate the release of that into American custody. Iran is not going to hand that over that leverage to to to Trump. I believe. My last question to you Alistister is is are things so cynical in the sense that do you believe that right now
the United States in Israel in particular though Israel is waiting on the last minute election results to then conduct some kind of strike or operation that could uh postpone them because as you said earlier the results are very close. uh is do you believe that this could be the calculation on why we've heard talks and buildup and threats all throughout this month and uh yet uh that's what they've been so far.
I I think I'm not the person really to answer that effectively because in first of all that we have to wait and see. But it is quite possible that he could lose 55 minutesboth um the House of Representatives and the Senate. By lose I mean lose the majority. Now with the Senate that would be really important. Now, would that mean that for example, which hasn't happened so far, he's just been able
to ignore the Congress altogether? Trump has done what he was. He's pursued war against Iran. He's imposed tariffs. He's done pretty well whatever we want. And there's been absolutely no blowback from Congress at all. Uh no challenging him. Would the a poor result in the midterms affect that? Make it harder for people um for him to pursue a war on the basis of it. Um it's hard to say because as I
say, you know, you have to get someone who understands the legal nicities. But I think the new um Congress will not actually even take office though until late December. Um I don't not maybe it's early December. Um but I mean there is a period of time where there will be no congressional opposition. So yes, that is feasible. But to what extent I if there's been a shift in in the Congress and
in the Senate, will there be a real push back? I don't know and I slightly doubt it. I think they he will just uh ride rough shod over over Congress if he decides to do something against Iran. But I'm but I'm saying it will be something of a pirick victory. And I want to make that very clear. It will be peric for this reason. Iran, if it is attacked, even if it
is attacked by a nuclear weapon, has a system for a second strike, a dead hand system. all of their missile um um cities which are spread across all the different provinces of Iran have a structure and a set of instructions to the commanders of each one that if you lose all if you've lost all of the command structure has gone from Thran the communications have been severed then the attack on Israel
will continue. So in other words, if um the picture is envisaged that it will be that um uh the Trump will destroy annihilate as he put it Iran. He is condemning Israel to annihilation by the same token too. Well, Alistister, it's been a great program. I want to make sure everybody knows that Conflicts Form Substack, which uh you put together is in the video description below. So, everybody who watched today should
go there after the show and click and support uh your work as you trace these developments further. Everybody, hit the like button before you go. That helps boost the show and YouTube's algorithm. I'll be back tomorrow, 1:00 p.m. Eastern time, October 15th, with Larry Johnson and Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson. Thanks to the new member here, and thank you to everyone who moderated the chat today. And of course to everyone who viewed. Hit
the like button before you go. Alistister, do you have any final words before I hit endstream here? No, nothing more, I think. All right. Well, thank you so much and thanks everyone watching. I'll see you all tomorrow, October 15th. Bye-bye.
-
admin
- Site Admin
- Posts: 41616
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am
Re: PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE
Iran LEAKS US-Israeli Attack, Yemen HITS European Jet! | Larry Johnson & Col. Lawrence Wilkerson
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 57 minutes ago #iran #iranwar #israel
Has Iran just leaked US-Israeli war plans, which according to Iranian intel, could be carried at any moment? Fmr CIA analyst Larry Johnson and retired US Army Colonel and Chief of Staff Lawrence Wilkerson react to a bombshell report that details the deep war preparations of Trump and Netanyahu when no one was watching, and give expert insights into the Yemen-Saudi war that cannot be ignored as Middle East oil comes under massive crisis.
Transcript
Chapter 1: Tensions with Iran escalate Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. As you can see, I am joined by Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson and Larry Johnson to go over the latest developments. Thanks for waiting as we dealt with some uh technical issues. But gentlemen, uh let's begin with the latest news about Iran. Uh the Iranian military has said that they have issued evacuation orders across multiple bases
as Iranian officials have told diplomats across the region that they are 100% certain that an attack is coming soon. They are preparing for uh preemptive strikes themselves to not wait for the United States andor Israel to conduct this attack. In the last , we've seen heavy cargo traffic again, mainly to Israel, where many believe the attack will originate. And I know you've probably been following this uh gentleman. Uh CNN has said
that Donald Trump is planning to drop the mother of all bombs, the Moab, against Iran's energy facilities and nuclear facilities in this next attack. Now on the Yemen front uh a European a Euro fighter typhoon as part of the Saudi Air Force was hit overnight and this is the imagery of what happened. Uh we also have 30 vessels in the last uh two weeks hit in the straight of Hormuz and Fox
News even covered some of the wreckage as uh cargo containers floating in the sea after two were hit in the last 24 hours alone. Larry, how about we start with you? Um, you know, Iran seems to be uh very much aware of all of these US movements toward another USIsraeli attack. What do you make of these movements? What do you make of the reports of the Moab [clears throat] and uh what
exactly is going on here? We're about two weeks out from the midterms and less than two weeks from the Israeli election. Well, we're we're not seeing the kind of uh Chapter 2: Political motives for war tandup of uh support forces that we did prior to February 28th. Um and and one of the things they mean by that is you don't you don't have the crisis action teams being stood up. Um the
Sentcom, yeah, they're still running a CAT. they they have been now for some time. But uh again, when you get out to the other support elements that if you're going to carry out a massive series of strikes, you'd want those support elements engaged. So far, there's no indication. Now, that that doesn't mean they couldn't try to do something, but it just if if they do try to go forward with military action
without putting in place that support system that, you know, it's a planning and execution system, uh they're asking for trouble. uh this the notion the what I think Iran may be reacting to is that Israel I think is definitely going to try to strike Iran uh as part of BB Netanyahu's uh scheme to stay in office uh he he may he may provoke this war the reign reignition of this war with
Iran just in order to be able to cancel elections in Israel. U Trump, you know, I had wondered it aloud and then I heard from Robert Barnes, Trump's really not in a position where even if he declares a state of emergency, the states run the elections. So, he'd have trouble cancelling uh elections. You know, there it'd be almost impossible. But I can see it happening on the Israeli side. Uh you know,
clearly the Iranians think something's up. So, you can't, you know, I I I wouldn't I I don't think they're hallucinating. Yeah. Colonel Wilson, what's your reaction to what's going on? Uh uh some have said on social media, I don't know if I can believe this, but that there are forces being built up that rival Epic Fury. It seems to be hard to believe given what's happened since Epic Fury, quote unquote, but
your thoughts on what's going on? I think Larry's right. I I think the signals are very confused and the signals that I am looking at that are Chapter 3: Intelligence and capabilities very confused are characterized by what Larry mentioned about what Netanyahu probably is going to do. He's going to do something and he's in a much better position to do it than Trump is with regard to three November. But footnote that.
I'll come back to it. And he's going to try probably to if at the last minute his adviserss are telling him it's going to be extraordinarily close or even that he might lose, he's going to throw the nation into turmoil. The country, I hate to call them a nation, they're not a nation, uh going to uh throw the country into turmoil. And that turmoil is going to be used by Netanyahu to
do something about the elections that might be negative if he didn't. And one of the things he's going to do is take advantage of that opportunity to probably whatever he's planning on doing doing it. I don't know if it's going to be what I would call quote conventional unquote. I don't mean conventional in a sense versus nuclear conventional that sort of thing. I mean the standard Netanyahu operation. Um what he might
do is a massive increase of his forces and what his forces are doing in Lebanon. Um a consolidation not only of what he's already gained but moving even further. Um and see if that preempts an attack not only by Iran but also by Hezbollah and then try to go after Hezbollah big time. um and at the same time withstand what Iran might do do to him because I think what he's trying
to provoke ultimately he is going to provoke I'm not so sure he's going to appreciate it after it happens but he's trying to provoke Iran to hit him and to hit him hard enough to where the whatever quandry Trump is in is terminated immediately and he's with him. But then we come to what Larry was talking about. What's he with him with? I don't see a whole lot that could comprise a
massive strike on Iran in any way different from anything that's happened in the past and perhaps even less so. Um, and what's that mean? If if you're just braggadosing in order to kind of confuse the waters before you come to either election, then that's one thing. But it's another thing if you were going to, and I think this is becoming increasingly a potential, you're going to provoke Iran into preempting and you're
not going to like it. You are not going to like what Iran is going to do to both Israel and what remains of US such as they are, they're barely there anymore, assets in the region. So I don't understand what they're doing and but I haven't understood what they're doing for a long time really. There is no strategy apparent to me and I'm not even sure there's a policy other than this
constantly reiterated thing about stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon which is a bunch of hogwash cuz they already have a nuclear weapon. Larry, what's what kind of intel does Iran have about uh the preparations the United States is making? because it always seems like every time there are reports about a coming attack, it's Iran that is uh very much ahead of it, very much reporting on it. And uh uh I'm
wondering what how good is their intel? I mean, during the war, the 40-day war, we heard that there were sources all across the Gulf, especi especially in Jordan, uh that were feeding information. Uh but but how good is Iran's intelligence about US movements in the region now uh that we're at this stage of the war? Oh no, I think it's very it's very good because there's not just them. Remember they they've
signed intelligence sharing Chapter 4: Conflict on the Yemen front agreements with Russia and China. So the the Russians and Chinese are certainly keeping them informed of uh of movements uh because they both have the satellite systems to collect on that and and as well as the uh seant collection systems. Uh so uh you know if if Iran had to rely just on its own assets and resources yeah it would be limited
but it it's not. It's, you know, it's got the the Chinese and Russians providing them with intelligence. Yeah. And Colonel Wilkerson, what is the, you know, when it comes to especially the the Yemen front? How does this factor into all these calculations? because there it almost appears that the United States despite being deeply involved in what Saudi Arabia is doing to Yemen uh is trying to ignore that while pursuing uh another
uh kind of tactical move on Iran. Well, I don't think it's ignoring except per force. That is to say, they don't have any choice. [laughter] We don't have any assets of significance with which to influence that campaign. And I mean that outright mean it. We do not have the assets to influence that campaign. Yeah. Um so it's um I I don't think there's anything more than broad coordination if even that between
what the Houthis are doing and what Iran is doing and going to do. Now there may be some synergies that have developed obviously because of the proximity of the conflicts and you know the the situation in general i.e. Iran has destroyed almost all the assets that the United States depended on wholeheartedly in the region and that leaves people blind in many respects who were our allies and they don't like being blind
and now they're in you know whatever running around underneath Riad trying to survive death uh which I find really remarkable with regard to Muhammad bin Salman after what he did to Kosoji and other enemies I know he took care of fought with. So it it it's not a situation where the campaigns are being coordinated except on maybe a broad piece of music by the fact that some casualties have already occurred to
major assets. But it is it is gaining some synergy from the fact that we're losing and [laughter] that all our allies are losing at least in part because of that. Um, with the possible exception of Oman, I don't think Oman is going to come out of this other than if, you know, if it doesn't get disastrous regionally wise. Oman's going to come out of this looking pretty good because frankly, the Sultan
and his family don't treat their people nearly as badly as the other groups do. That said, the changing situation in the Gulf and I think the strait is now reflecting that more so in in a very uh focused way than any other place which we Larry and I and many others have said is going to be the case because we do not control that Chapter 5: Global economic fallout straight. All our
lies to the contrary don't mean a thing. um we are really looking at havoc and therefore we're looking at havoc with everything that trait means to global commerce and as Larry has pointed out many times it's a lot more than just oil and gas. Yeah. So we're looking at some real repercussions coming down the road and Trump can say all day long that it won't impact America because we've got so much
we don't need any of this. That is a freaking lie. It is going to impact us and it's going to impact us big times. Yesterday I was looking at a prognosis on home mortgages. 8% they're saying in another month or two and it's just going to go up from there. And people say, "Well, it can't do that. It can't do that." I look at him and I say, "Hey dude, you know
what it was when I was working for the chairman of the joint chiefs? It was 13.8. That's why I didn't buy a house. That's where we're going again. And we're looking for another housing short." all to say that this is having far more impact on Trump's country that he was going to make great again than anybody in the administration is willing to admit. And Rubio going to Athens and praising the Greeks
who have sold out to Israel. Rubio, where have you been? Yeah, great points, Colonel Wilkerson. Uh Larry, what is the significance of Yemen hitting this Euro fighter typhoon? what is that? And uh maybe you can talk about what the significance of Yemen being able to do this quite quite easily. It seems like your your thoughts on this. What is it that Yemen is not hitting? [laughter] Okay, that's a good point. I
mean, look, um, we go back to, um, the US adventure with Operation Rough Rider a year ago, June or it was, uh, started end of middle of March, all of April and first week of May. Um, and during that period, the Houthies shot down two F-18s. Yeah. Um, and you know, I got that confirmed that we we covered it up at the time, but they shot that down. They were shooting down
one MQ9 Reaper a week. Uh, and those, you know, those are run around 60 $65 million. So, those aren't cheap. So, you know, you know, the the fact is they they have a pretty effective uh let's call it air defense capability or uh that they they can take down at least fourth generation uh combat uh jets. So, but but you also look at the precision that they've demonstrated with their missile strikes.
And now I I don't I don't think it's just a simple matter of pulling up on Google map what the like the coordinates are for uh the Aramco headquarters in the eastern part of Saudi Arabia and then just typing those into your uh software system and it magically targets. I I I think that the these ballistic missiles have, you know, something a little more sophisticated that they're able to actually precisely hit
uh targets that, uh, you know, previously they didn't. So, you know, I think there's definitely been an upgrade in their capability. They've had, you know, a longstanding relationship with China. I mean, good lord, it goes it goes back well over 70 years. Um, and uh, so I, you know, there's no telling what degree of assistance they've gotten from China in in, you know, being able to go out after some of these
air assets. the Chinese may. Now, I'm not trying to blame the Chinese, but I'm just saying that that relationship and China's technical skill Chapter 6: Fragility of Saudi Arabia is potentially given uh the the Houthis an edge, but they're look, they're they've inflicted more damage on Saudi 16 minutesArabia's infrastructure in the last three weeks than they did in all previous wars with Saudi Arabia. Wow. Yeah. And uh it should not be
forgotten that Ansarala has always given China and Russia as well uh whenever there's been uh for example blockades of the Red Sea uh the go ahead because of their of their relationship. Uh, Colonel Wilkerson, uh, to you on this. You know, uh, the, uh, the Yemen front appears to be, uh, giving Saudi Arabia an incredible headache right now and, uh, it's going to have consequences, uh, enormous ones for, uh, the entire
world as this continues. Uh, what do you make of I know that you've been following this quite closely. There's been a lot of reporting on and not a lot of reporting on what Saudi Arabia has been doing on who they've been targeting, but there's been a lot of attempts to demonize on Sarala and uh the Yemen armed forces uh for their recent targeting for example of uh the international airport in Riyad.
What are your thoughts on this? Well, I you know I just listened to uh the cost of war project at Brown University Watson Institute and several people who were invited guests to talk about the casualties and the body count if you will in Yemen from roughly the time period when I first joined which was when we first decided to provide not only extended range F-15s and Jams for all their iron bombs
and then the iron bombs with the Jams on them and then intelligence and then fuel and all manner of other things that we never fessed up to but the Pentagon was doing in order to help them fight in the original Houthy conflict if you will and I I'm stunned still we we now have another chalera outbreak apparently according to the one humanitarian who was on this webcast who is from the region
and from an NGO in the region and the Arabic name I can't even pronounce. Um, but she was very very detailed in her briefing on what's happening now and what's happening with the kalera and other aspects of it and looking at it from the perspective I had before and knowing that basically what was happening with the Saudis were being absolutely ruthless and not very good at what they were doing. But when
you're not very good from the air, you can be extraordinarily ruth ruthless with regard to civilians on the ground, which is precisely what they're doing. And I don't think it's changed very much, regardless of whom they've hired to fire their fly their airplanes or whether they're national or whatever. So I think what's happening now is not only is Saudi Arabia disintegrating and I'm waiting to see how the Wahhabist royal family connection
severs because I think that's the next big blow because these Wahhabists are not going to hang around with the royals if the royals are going down. So where are they going to go and what are they going to do? But I think this we're we're watching the endnotes for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Yeah. Let me just let me just add in in there that I don't I don't think the the
Russians the Russian government's much focused on that. Uh I had a I had a brief conversation with Ambassador Nabenzia uh at the you know he's he heads up the UN mission for Russia and uh you know it it really it's not on because I I raised said if you if you said if you considered uh the the fact that uh Muhammad bin Salman could be removed and you're going to you're going
to the whole government of uh Saudi Arabia could collapse. apps and he was like you think so you know he really hadn't hadn't focused on it and I I think this is I think there's been an assumption that there's greater stability on the Saudi side than than is actually the case and in fact what when when MBS basically took all of his cousins and other leading uh shakes hostage nine years ago
2017 they held him up in this hotel, shook him down. It was an extortion. Claimed he was fighting corruption, but what he was doing was pumping billions of dollars under under his direct control. Uh the the entire Saudi system became basically centered now on one guy. And that's uh that means you got a fragile single point of failure. And uh you know I think people assume that this NBS Chapter 7: Strait
of Hormuz crisis character was you know he was only 32 years old when he pulled off that coup. He's now 41. You know not to belittle 41 year olds but uh he wasn't exactly the most experienced. You know he he was barely out of playing uh video games. you know, Colonel Wilkerson, and I know Larry, you'll want to copy uh comment on this, too. You know, we have about two two ships
a day in the straight of Hormuz being fired upon by Iran and stopped, at least uh from what we know of. Uh there's also reports now by Reuters that says that if uh the United States and Iran cannot agree to a UN backed plan to move fertilizer through the straight of hormones, it could cause a huge food security crisis for some of the biggest parts of the world, Asia and Africa. Uh
there's also of course uh Yemen is as Larry said, Yemen is hitting everything and they've of course hit Aramco several times uh uh including the CEO's headquarters. Uh so how sustainable is this going on in the way that it is? because it doesn't seem like the United States has uh an off-ramp, but yet uh the crisis is every seems like every day we're now hearing more and more about uh the rubber
uh meeting the road here. And more and more I'm seeing scenes that tell me that the straight over muse is in great jeopardy. Um, I'm not even seeing scenes anymore that shows me that the channels are being used in an effective way for the benefit of Iran or Oman or whomever we might calculate is getting, you know, the basic stuff through. What I'm seeing is chaos. And what chaos does and I
go back to that 2009 petroleum disruption exercise that we ran in Beijing with most of the world's Marads and Lloyds of Londons and nations in fact to include Japan, Korea, China. Um, and I I go back to the things that were passing around that table that day from these experts, many of whom were based in the United States, if not really United States entities. and the caution that they gave about anything
happening as is happening now um were were quite riveting and I think I am seeing the real world example of that happening now I'm watching those insurance rates I'm watching other things that indicate what they told me to watch and what indication to and interpretation to put on that indication and I'm telling telling you we are in deep trouble. And the main purpose of this entire thing really if you go back
and look at theou yeah the nuclear program yeah ballistic missiles blah blah hogwash the main point of interest and rightfully so was the straight of hormuz and the traffic through it we failed completely and utterly failed now I won't jump in and say Iran has succeeded massively But they certainly have succeeded to a greater extent than we have. And they didn't need to. All they needed to do was do what I
just said, what I just briefly described. And they've done it. And we are going to pay the consequences majorly. And all the election bruhaha and ICE deploying to the streets and so forth is just going to cause a freaking civil war in this country. But they're not going to be able to control the fact that by November the 3 and surely shortly thereafter if not enough I think by November 3rd to
affect the elections the American people are not going to vote for Republicans or they're not going to vote if Republican they're going to be so disgusted they're not going to go vote. Yeah. There's been talks about record low turnout this happens it seems many some of these rallies he's been holding and when the camera slips ups and shows you what's happening in the audience right bad bad a lot a lot of
astrourfing happening at these rallies that's for sure uh Larry your comments on uh the situation with the fertilizer the crises are mounting the videos even Fox News felt compelled to show video of what happened to that mass massive container ship in the straight of Permu. Your thoughts? Well, again, and I've written about it extensively that [clears throat] it's not, you know, the the the tendencies to fixate on oil and oil really
is a big Chapter 8: Broad economic consequences 26 minutesproblem because it is a particular kind of oil that uh several refineries were built to handle. And so without that oil coming out of the um Persian Gulf, those refineries don't have anything to refine, which is one of the reasons there's been this great, you know, shortage of diesel around the world. U you know, and Japan, what's interesting, Japan right now, they've actually
had pretty strong reserves. So they they've been living on the reserves. their prices haven't gone up dramatically, but uh one of the reasons you've seen the prices rise in the United States is these refineries, they're not public utilities. In other words, they're not owned by the government. [clears throat and cough] They're private concerns. They're businesses. If you've got uh if if you know, let's say the the people in the United States
only want to pay $2.50 50 cents uh for a gallon of diesel. But you've got Europeans or Africans or people in Asia that say, "Hey, we'll pay you $5, double that." Where are you going to go sell your product? you're going to go to where the the higher price is, which is in order then for the United States to compete for that oil or that diesel, we have to raise our prices,
which is one of the reasons why diesel now is so high. But then on top of that, you've got the LNG. The shortages there have uh it's given a temporary boost. US has ample resources of LNG. But one of the problems is because the prices are going up. [clears throat and cough] We're seeing a number of big users of LG starting to shift to coal and uh so that they where they'll
they go to coal as a cheaper source uh of energy. And then you get into the uh with the lack of oil and gas being refined in the Persian Gulf that has led to a reduction in the the amount of sulfur and ura that was being produced. And and the same with helium and all of these they cascade into all facets of the economy. It's not just one area that it's involved
with the price of food because of the transportation costs entailed taking the food from, you know, where it's either grown or manufactured until the final point of delivery at the grocery store. Um the the the increased price that farmers are having to pay for both diesel and fertilizer. So that's making their crops, they're they're having to charge more uh for across the board. And any farm that uses fertilizer and diesel, th
those prices are up. Uh locomotives, airplanes, uh trucking industry, uh that's just on the diesel side. And then uh when you get into the fertilizer issue, that gets to food production. Helium gets to prod production of computer chips. This is this is not something that just uh you declare peace, they have an agreement that everything goes back to normal. Uh Carl Miller, who I've written about extensively, he's a he's a energy
analyst who works over in uh West Asia. [clears throat] He says the problem is a lot of these uh whale uh installations uh the well heads the pumps uh the actual infrastructure has been damaged and it's not generic offtheshelf piping. It is actually uh use the word bespoke. It's specifically designed for a particular system. And the problem you got added to that is there's not like a thousand companies out there able
to do this work. No, it's a very very very small number of companies that can do that work and they've got limited resources. So [clears throat] they can't suddenly address all five. You know, you've got demand from Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates. You got five different countries demanding. [clears throat] You got to prioritize some way. So, you know, very complicated and it's going to take um before the Houthies
started, you know, beating the hell out of the Saudis, the estimate from a Ramco was it was going to be two years to get things back to normal. Carl Miller said, "No, it's going to be 5 years." And he since since the Houthy offensive, he's revised that. Now, he says it's 7 to 10 years. Just to just to magnify that a little bit. Um, we were talking about, uh, what were we
talking about? We talking [clears throat] about the, uh, disruption exercise and I saw that video you had there. Um, I don't know if this is the case, but in that video, you noted there were a lot of little boats out there without boards on. Well, what happened to us that complicated everything, but it's just human nature is that when a container ship erupts like that on the ocean surface, everybody and his
brother goes out there to try and take advantage of it and they don't care about the danger in many cases. And that takes me back to the situation in the Red Sea that I explored a little more deeply yesterday. I want to know why would these people pay 3,000 US equivalent to go from Africa into the 32 minutesbowels of this war in Yemen. I know they're paying similar amounts to go the
other way, but this latest one that capsized or whatever and kill 150 or so people was going that way. And they said, "Have you noticed the conditions there lately? They're terrible. there. And so people are risking their life to go into a war zone to try and get some work from states that are falling. I [laughter] mean, you can't make this stuff up. This is truly a disaster. And we're augmenting and
deepening the disaster in East Africa, which is happening from everything from the climate crisis to no rain to too much rain. It depends on where you are, but they've got enormous problems. And then I go to the World Food Program and they tell me that there's going to be probably a hundred million people starving to death. And this, as Larry pointed out, this lack of ingredients for fertilizer and so forth is
going to augment and deepen that. Where are they going to go? Well, they're not going to sit around and just roost and die there. They're going to migrate or they're going to try to migrate. So, we've got a real horrendous problem on our hands that's going to develop over [clears throat] time and get more serious as that time goes by. Yeah. Colonel workers, I'm saying staying with you for a sec here
because I know you've got some time limitations. I wanted to just the couple of breaking things that just happened. Uh there are reports that Donald Trump is considering firing Pete Hegs just after the midterm elections in order to uh save face from whatever Iran war disaster will to keep Tom Massie from having a target, [laughter] right? Seems like that's the case. And then there's also, of course, the uh firing squad execution
that was supposed to happen on December 3rd. Donald Trump has said he will not be uh airing that live streaming that he just put that out this morning on Truth Social. Your reactions to this and and get Larry in here. As I understand it, he's still going to have it though. And right now we we have at the military religious freedom Chapter 9: Military morale and conduct foundation we have dozens if
not several dozens of all manner of religious affiliated Jewish Christian agnostics and so forth troops from across the spectrum but particularly from those that might be called upon to join the firing squad in their view. Um, and by that I mean ones around the area uh who are writing in and saying not going to do it. I'm not going to do it. Uh, I must find a way out. I'll be a
conscientious objector. I'll say it's against my religion or whatever. But this is unconscionable. They were being asked to do this and to do it on television in front of my children. One of them said there's no way on earth I'm going to do that. I'll mutiny before I'll do that. So he's caused an enormous problem within the same ranks that there are some that remain of the military, particularly those that feel
like they might be vulnerable to cult to be a part of this firing squad. Doesn't take much. This message has gotten out. It's gotten out and it's by and large completely rejected by the rank and file of the military. Yeah. Well, uh Larry bringing you in, same question to you. Well, yeah, it's uh um the the mental effect, psychological effect on soldiers who are asked to shoot unarmed people. Now, I'm not
I'm not, you know, look, this guy murdered 13, so he's not some innocent, but it's still uh shooting somebody who's unarmed, not seen as an immediate threat. you know, that's why they got away from uh doing firing squads to hangings and then electrocutions, you know, put put something in between or poison gas. Uh, I mean that's what that's what happened to the Vermach in World War II when they when they first
went into Ukraine uh and or Poland and then Ukraine and were uh a lot of the soldiers were being used to execute civilians. Uh it it caused a mental health crisis within the within the Vermach and that was one of the that was one of the I guess impetus for coming up with Cyclon B you poison gas and other other ways to kill people because they didn't doing it directly like that
was creating some real problems. Mo most people, just to amplify what Larry said, most people don't realize that the Nazis actually had a war crimes division. And if you go back and read some of the papers that were produced by that war crimes division and some people who really tried to do their jobs with respect to their mission and whether you're looking at the Captain Forest and who did that or whether
you're looking at other times as Larry's insinuating in Ukraine for example just rounding up all the civilians and shooting them then moving on to the next village rounding them up and shooting them again especially if they were Jewish. Yeah. Uh, all of that, it took a toll even on these bastards in the in the Vermach. [snorts] Well, uh, Colonel Wilkins, I know you only got a couple minutes left. Uh, maybe your
final comments and then Larry, maybe we can close out the show for another few minutes. Um, sure. Colonel Wilkerson, uh, your final comments on the situation because we went from the broader war situation now to the it seems like the chaos unfolding internally, uh, not just in Washington, but there's also Israel, uh, where I've been making, I don't know what you think of this, but I've been making the calculation that it
seems like the Netanyahu regime is really looking toward maybe the final polling before uh, letting all hell break loose. I don't know if you have that feeling. I know it's a very close election, but your thoughts on how internal crises are are influencing what's happening right now? Well, I don't know how exquisite BB's what I'll call political intelligence. Chapter 10: UN diplomacy and shift It's really an overall tapestry of intelligence. I
don't know how exquisite it is now because so many of its eyes and ears as it were have been dulled or have been completely turned off. I suspect that he is very much attuned with what I'm hearing from sources in well as far apart as Nazareth uh which is a very different community and Tel Aviv and Hifa and Jerusalem and other places in between. Um he's got to be aware that this
is uh probably the most difficult and contentious and possibly earthshattering election and the environment that surrounds it including Iran and Lebanon uh that he's ever been through. Uh and remember this is the guy that got Yet Zack RBI assassinated by the way he campaigned for one of his elections. No question in my mind about it. He knew he was aggravating the settlers to the point where one of them would step forward
with a pistol and shoot the guy. And he did. Um, and he did everything he could afterwards to try and get that settler forgiven and even get him out of jail. Uh, this is Netanyahu. There's nothing he won't do, nothing he won't say, no lie he won't tell, no element of his power paniply he won't turn to and use to include nuclear weapons. I got to say that. Uh, and so th
this is a very, very dangerous time. Not just because of that, but because the Iranians, I think, are resolute in opposing anything he does, even if it's back to the hill by the United States. 40 minutesWell, Colonel Wilkerson, uh, thanks so much for Before Before Colonel departs, let me just jump in with something that I I learned yesterday. I I I did a presentation at for it's called an Arya group. It's
not a formal UN Security Council session, but all members of the security council are represented there. It was Russia putting it on. What was fascinating there has been a significant shift in US policy. I mean, I the the US representative reminded me of a guy who's an arsonist who'd set fire to a house and he's standing out front with the fireman going, "Man, this fire is terrible. I wonder who set it.
You know, this is awful." I mean, this this guy was talking like Russia and China just got in. I mean, Russia and Ukraine got into this beef and, you know, he's boy is mystified how this has happened. 41 minutesSo I mean it because the previous time I was there there was sharp criticism. Yeah. From the US side and I asked you know Ambassador Nenzi I said am I imagining this or are
we seeing a significant shift in the US tone? He says yeah we're seeing definite shift. Now the Europeans on the other hand oh man they're out they're out of their damn minds. I mean they're just vicious. uh the there's going to be a war with Europe based upon the the vitriel particularly from the den the Denmark and and Latafia. Unbelievable what they said. I want to go over to the to the
Danish rep and say, "How's it feel to be the [ __ ] of the United States?" Like that Greenland stuff. Smaller you are, the louder you bark. Yeah. [laughter] Yeah. Okay. Sorry, but I want to give you that as background. That's good to know. Colonel, do you want to comment on that and then head out or I I can understand why someone with some sanity might be prevailing now, even if it's
only a [clears throat] person at the UN. Obviously, he's sort of been prompted to that. And that's the way those people up there act. You know, we have lackeyis up there as far as I'm concerned. Yeah. Yeah. Well, Colonel, it's always great to be with you. Look forward to our next talk and uh have a good rest of the day. Thank you. I'll see you tomorrow sometime, I think. Yeah. Yeah. [laughter]
Yeah. All right. See you next week. Bye-bye. Uh all right, Larry. Well, how about we follow up the last uh 8 to or so uh with what you just said about uh Europe. It seems like Europe is taking center stage or trying to at least uh with what it can optically and uh politically uh in this drive to war with Russia. And the United States finds itself, some people call this sequencing,
strategic sequencing, but the United States see simply seems to be completely mired in West Asia. Donald Trump said today he could end the Iran war whenever when he wants to, but there is no evidence of that at all. End it. I thought he already won it. I thought [laughter] I thought Iran was beat about 80 times by now. But he was already defeated. So he says, and then he I I did
see a comment. He said, "Boy, as soon as we defeat Iran, man, that price of gas, diesel is going to come right down." It's like, "Yeah, but you said we defeated them. So right, have they, you know, risen from the dead now? Yeah. I thought the deal with Russia, the the the great diesel deal with Russia was supposed to lower diesel prices, but I still go out there and it's over 620,
640, 650 a gallon for diesel out here in the East Coast. So, not good. Not good. Yeah. Yeah. you know the the uh but it it does appear that um there has you know there's been a change uh in US policy you know the way these state when Chapter 11: Warfare and industrial outlook this is like you got to understand the art of interpreting statements before the UN security council [cough] [clears
throat] they're not so much policy but what is said and how it is said is uh sends a clear indication of what uh how a government is going to act uh and respond and what was you know so there are 15 members of the security council um the and and and and in the in the past you know I I spoke there two years ago now and uh [clears throat] it was
very uh it was on Nordstream and at that time the US was insisting that this was you know Russia was involved and this this you know focused on Russia's responsibility for the war that you know they were the aggressor. You didn't hear that yesterday [clears throat and cough] that that that specific charge attacking Russia as being a hypocrite and a murder murderous country that came from four four countries. Um the France,
Denmark, Latvia and Greece of all people. The UK rep she was not as strident. I mean, I I put those those four European countries, man, they were in a category of their own. They were just, you know, if if you know, blood was dripping from their fangs, they they were that kind of uh they were insulting. Um they were aggressive. Uh so uh what what we're seeing is a shift with the
United States now reportedly has stopped providing some intel uh to Ukraine. [clears throat] They're also not getting the uh the data from Starlink that they were previously. So that's is hampering Ukrainian operations. So you're seeing you're starting to see see a shift uh in in in on the US side but given this animous that was so palpable on the part of these European countries uh I think I think they are going
to go to war with Russia. Uh I I think the in the next within the next year I think it's highly likely. I wish that I was otherwise but they are just I mean there's there [clears throat] is no they're not willing to compromise. They're not willing to talk. All they're doing is insults. Well, you know, I know we don't have that much time left, Larry, but that timeline you just gave
uh things in the in West Asia could very much well be unresolved. And while the United States uh has talked a a big game under the Trump administration about you know being separate from Europe and you know putting the responsibility onto Europe for their own problems on all of this uh there is still that article 5 uh NATO and there's still also the fact that the United States in material form has
continued all the way up until this point uh with various levels of uh uh to various degrees of supporting uh you 48 minutesknow Europe and Ukraine's effort to uh to to uh continue this war against Russia. So the United States and will therefore be caught it seems like in another war a major war which is be more disastrous than even what's happened with Iran. What's your thoughts on that? Yeah. Um I
you know I think there's some real uh let's see re reassessment going on. Uh the the you know the weapons shortage is real. You know and that's that's exposed uh that's been exposed in Saudi Arabia now. You know their air defense system. They used to have Patriot missiles. There are no more Patriot missiles. They're out. uh and or if they've got them, they're they're husbanding them in a way that they're not
using them. So, right now, the Houthis are basically they're hitting whatever target they want. And the Saudis with with even help from Pakistan and Turkey and the United States and Israel, they're not able to stop it. So, um I I think for from the United States standpoint, there's the recognition that we got limited resources and we don't have unlimited resources. And therefore uh Russia by by contrast it it has it has
developed a very sophisticated industrial capability that's able to rapidly uh supply frontline troops with systems and equipment that uh have been identified as they need it in order to continue fighting. And so the the Russians are able very quickly to produce, you know, new like the the drones. When you look at the the evolution of the drone technology in Russia back in summer of 2022, they were using drones supplied by Iran.
Uh and but now Russia is using its own jet powered that are driven and also under AI control. So they've really dramatically changed the game. Yeah, that's for sure. And the air defense capabilities of Russia are simply I mean, of course, we only get reports about Ukraine shooting everything down all the time. And that's the reports. Uh we still even get that with Saudi Arabia despite the obvious evidence uh we get
every single day of its uh losing war against Yemen, of how there really are no air defenses. But Russia's though are when you just think about the number of drones that are fired at at Russia in these attacks that the Western mainstream media plays up. Uh they're in they've got a a lot they've got a large volume that are very effective it seems or at least that's that's what the lay person
who stands outside of the military expertise uh can deduce from that. Your final comments there. Well, I was I was there on September 20th when u Ukraine launched 1,600 at least 1,600, some say, 1900 drones to try to penetrate the Moscow region. And I think out of 1900, five got through. So that's pretty remarkable success rate. And and the ones that got through, they didn't penetrate up deep into the city at
all. So, um you know what what we're looking at here is um the Russians are taking apart the Ukrainian capabilities piece by piece. Yeah. And then you compile that with the huge weapon shortages in other areas. This would seemingly be where the collective West, the combined West would want to go with warfare anyway, given that the US is draining all that it has in the Middle East. But Larry, great uh to
have you on. We'll head out of here together. Sonar 21 and Transition Protocol, both in the video description, so everyone should check those out. Thanks to everyone who gave super chats. Thanks uh to those who were moderating in the chat today. And then thanks to everyone who viewed. Hit the like button before you go, everyone. And I'll be back tomorrow with Scott Ritter, 2 p.m.
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 57 minutes ago #iran #iranwar #israel
Has Iran just leaked US-Israeli war plans, which according to Iranian intel, could be carried at any moment? Fmr CIA analyst Larry Johnson and retired US Army Colonel and Chief of Staff Lawrence Wilkerson react to a bombshell report that details the deep war preparations of Trump and Netanyahu when no one was watching, and give expert insights into the Yemen-Saudi war that cannot be ignored as Middle East oil comes under massive crisis.
Transcript
Chapter 1: Tensions with Iran escalate Welcome everyone. Welcome back to the show. As you can see, I am joined by Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson and Larry Johnson to go over the latest developments. Thanks for waiting as we dealt with some uh technical issues. But gentlemen, uh let's begin with the latest news about Iran. Uh the Iranian military has said that they have issued evacuation orders across multiple bases
as Iranian officials have told diplomats across the region that they are 100% certain that an attack is coming soon. They are preparing for uh preemptive strikes themselves to not wait for the United States andor Israel to conduct this attack. In the last , we've seen heavy cargo traffic again, mainly to Israel, where many believe the attack will originate. And I know you've probably been following this uh gentleman. Uh CNN has said
that Donald Trump is planning to drop the mother of all bombs, the Moab, against Iran's energy facilities and nuclear facilities in this next attack. Now on the Yemen front uh a European a Euro fighter typhoon as part of the Saudi Air Force was hit overnight and this is the imagery of what happened. Uh we also have 30 vessels in the last uh two weeks hit in the straight of Hormuz and Fox
News even covered some of the wreckage as uh cargo containers floating in the sea after two were hit in the last 24 hours alone. Larry, how about we start with you? Um, you know, Iran seems to be uh very much aware of all of these US movements toward another USIsraeli attack. What do you make of these movements? What do you make of the reports of the Moab [clears throat] and uh what
exactly is going on here? We're about two weeks out from the midterms and less than two weeks from the Israeli election. Well, we're we're not seeing the kind of uh Chapter 2: Political motives for war tandup of uh support forces that we did prior to February 28th. Um and and one of the things they mean by that is you don't you don't have the crisis action teams being stood up. Um the
Sentcom, yeah, they're still running a CAT. they they have been now for some time. But uh again, when you get out to the other support elements that if you're going to carry out a massive series of strikes, you'd want those support elements engaged. So far, there's no indication. Now, that that doesn't mean they couldn't try to do something, but it just if if they do try to go forward with military action
without putting in place that support system that, you know, it's a planning and execution system, uh they're asking for trouble. uh this the notion the what I think Iran may be reacting to is that Israel I think is definitely going to try to strike Iran uh as part of BB Netanyahu's uh scheme to stay in office uh he he may he may provoke this war the reign reignition of this war with
Iran just in order to be able to cancel elections in Israel. U Trump, you know, I had wondered it aloud and then I heard from Robert Barnes, Trump's really not in a position where even if he declares a state of emergency, the states run the elections. So, he'd have trouble cancelling uh elections. You know, there it'd be almost impossible. But I can see it happening on the Israeli side. Uh you know,
clearly the Iranians think something's up. So, you can't, you know, I I I wouldn't I I don't think they're hallucinating. Yeah. Colonel Wilson, what's your reaction to what's going on? Uh uh some have said on social media, I don't know if I can believe this, but that there are forces being built up that rival Epic Fury. It seems to be hard to believe given what's happened since Epic Fury, quote unquote, but
your thoughts on what's going on? I think Larry's right. I I think the signals are very confused and the signals that I am looking at that are Chapter 3: Intelligence and capabilities very confused are characterized by what Larry mentioned about what Netanyahu probably is going to do. He's going to do something and he's in a much better position to do it than Trump is with regard to three November. But footnote that.
I'll come back to it. And he's going to try probably to if at the last minute his adviserss are telling him it's going to be extraordinarily close or even that he might lose, he's going to throw the nation into turmoil. The country, I hate to call them a nation, they're not a nation, uh going to uh throw the country into turmoil. And that turmoil is going to be used by Netanyahu to
do something about the elections that might be negative if he didn't. And one of the things he's going to do is take advantage of that opportunity to probably whatever he's planning on doing doing it. I don't know if it's going to be what I would call quote conventional unquote. I don't mean conventional in a sense versus nuclear conventional that sort of thing. I mean the standard Netanyahu operation. Um what he might
do is a massive increase of his forces and what his forces are doing in Lebanon. Um a consolidation not only of what he's already gained but moving even further. Um and see if that preempts an attack not only by Iran but also by Hezbollah and then try to go after Hezbollah big time. um and at the same time withstand what Iran might do do to him because I think what he's trying
to provoke ultimately he is going to provoke I'm not so sure he's going to appreciate it after it happens but he's trying to provoke Iran to hit him and to hit him hard enough to where the whatever quandry Trump is in is terminated immediately and he's with him. But then we come to what Larry was talking about. What's he with him with? I don't see a whole lot that could comprise a
massive strike on Iran in any way different from anything that's happened in the past and perhaps even less so. Um, and what's that mean? If if you're just braggadosing in order to kind of confuse the waters before you come to either election, then that's one thing. But it's another thing if you were going to, and I think this is becoming increasingly a potential, you're going to provoke Iran into preempting and you're
not going to like it. You are not going to like what Iran is going to do to both Israel and what remains of US such as they are, they're barely there anymore, assets in the region. So I don't understand what they're doing and but I haven't understood what they're doing for a long time really. There is no strategy apparent to me and I'm not even sure there's a policy other than this
constantly reiterated thing about stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon which is a bunch of hogwash cuz they already have a nuclear weapon. Larry, what's what kind of intel does Iran have about uh the preparations the United States is making? because it always seems like every time there are reports about a coming attack, it's Iran that is uh very much ahead of it, very much reporting on it. And uh uh I'm
wondering what how good is their intel? I mean, during the war, the 40-day war, we heard that there were sources all across the Gulf, especi especially in Jordan, uh that were feeding information. Uh but but how good is Iran's intelligence about US movements in the region now uh that we're at this stage of the war? Oh no, I think it's very it's very good because there's not just them. Remember they they've
signed intelligence sharing Chapter 4: Conflict on the Yemen front agreements with Russia and China. So the the Russians and Chinese are certainly keeping them informed of uh of movements uh because they both have the satellite systems to collect on that and and as well as the uh seant collection systems. Uh so uh you know if if Iran had to rely just on its own assets and resources yeah it would be limited
but it it's not. It's, you know, it's got the the Chinese and Russians providing them with intelligence. Yeah. And Colonel Wilkerson, what is the, you know, when it comes to especially the the Yemen front? How does this factor into all these calculations? because there it almost appears that the United States despite being deeply involved in what Saudi Arabia is doing to Yemen uh is trying to ignore that while pursuing uh another
uh kind of tactical move on Iran. Well, I don't think it's ignoring except per force. That is to say, they don't have any choice. [laughter] We don't have any assets of significance with which to influence that campaign. And I mean that outright mean it. We do not have the assets to influence that campaign. Yeah. Um so it's um I I don't think there's anything more than broad coordination if even that between
what the Houthis are doing and what Iran is doing and going to do. Now there may be some synergies that have developed obviously because of the proximity of the conflicts and you know the the situation in general i.e. Iran has destroyed almost all the assets that the United States depended on wholeheartedly in the region and that leaves people blind in many respects who were our allies and they don't like being blind
and now they're in you know whatever running around underneath Riad trying to survive death uh which I find really remarkable with regard to Muhammad bin Salman after what he did to Kosoji and other enemies I know he took care of fought with. So it it it's not a situation where the campaigns are being coordinated except on maybe a broad piece of music by the fact that some casualties have already occurred to
major assets. But it is it is gaining some synergy from the fact that we're losing and [laughter] that all our allies are losing at least in part because of that. Um, with the possible exception of Oman, I don't think Oman is going to come out of this other than if, you know, if it doesn't get disastrous regionally wise. Oman's going to come out of this looking pretty good because frankly, the Sultan
and his family don't treat their people nearly as badly as the other groups do. That said, the changing situation in the Gulf and I think the strait is now reflecting that more so in in a very uh focused way than any other place which we Larry and I and many others have said is going to be the case because we do not control that Chapter 5: Global economic fallout straight. All our
lies to the contrary don't mean a thing. um we are really looking at havoc and therefore we're looking at havoc with everything that trait means to global commerce and as Larry has pointed out many times it's a lot more than just oil and gas. Yeah. So we're looking at some real repercussions coming down the road and Trump can say all day long that it won't impact America because we've got so much
we don't need any of this. That is a freaking lie. It is going to impact us and it's going to impact us big times. Yesterday I was looking at a prognosis on home mortgages. 8% they're saying in another month or two and it's just going to go up from there. And people say, "Well, it can't do that. It can't do that." I look at him and I say, "Hey dude, you know
what it was when I was working for the chairman of the joint chiefs? It was 13.8. That's why I didn't buy a house. That's where we're going again. And we're looking for another housing short." all to say that this is having far more impact on Trump's country that he was going to make great again than anybody in the administration is willing to admit. And Rubio going to Athens and praising the Greeks
who have sold out to Israel. Rubio, where have you been? Yeah, great points, Colonel Wilkerson. Uh Larry, what is the significance of Yemen hitting this Euro fighter typhoon? what is that? And uh maybe you can talk about what the significance of Yemen being able to do this quite quite easily. It seems like your your thoughts on this. What is it that Yemen is not hitting? [laughter] Okay, that's a good point. I
mean, look, um, we go back to, um, the US adventure with Operation Rough Rider a year ago, June or it was, uh, started end of middle of March, all of April and first week of May. Um, and during that period, the Houthies shot down two F-18s. Yeah. Um, and you know, I got that confirmed that we we covered it up at the time, but they shot that down. They were shooting down
one MQ9 Reaper a week. Uh, and those, you know, those are run around 60 $65 million. So, those aren't cheap. So, you know, you know, the the fact is they they have a pretty effective uh let's call it air defense capability or uh that they they can take down at least fourth generation uh combat uh jets. So, but but you also look at the precision that they've demonstrated with their missile strikes.
And now I I don't I don't think it's just a simple matter of pulling up on Google map what the like the coordinates are for uh the Aramco headquarters in the eastern part of Saudi Arabia and then just typing those into your uh software system and it magically targets. I I I think that the these ballistic missiles have, you know, something a little more sophisticated that they're able to actually precisely hit
uh targets that, uh, you know, previously they didn't. So, you know, I think there's definitely been an upgrade in their capability. They've had, you know, a longstanding relationship with China. I mean, good lord, it goes it goes back well over 70 years. Um, and uh, so I, you know, there's no telling what degree of assistance they've gotten from China in in, you know, being able to go out after some of these
air assets. the Chinese may. Now, I'm not trying to blame the Chinese, but I'm just saying that that relationship and China's technical skill Chapter 6: Fragility of Saudi Arabia is potentially given uh the the Houthis an edge, but they're look, they're they've inflicted more damage on Saudi 16 minutesArabia's infrastructure in the last three weeks than they did in all previous wars with Saudi Arabia. Wow. Yeah. And uh it should not be
forgotten that Ansarala has always given China and Russia as well uh whenever there's been uh for example blockades of the Red Sea uh the go ahead because of their of their relationship. Uh, Colonel Wilkerson, uh, to you on this. You know, uh, the, uh, the Yemen front appears to be, uh, giving Saudi Arabia an incredible headache right now and, uh, it's going to have consequences, uh, enormous ones for, uh, the entire
world as this continues. Uh, what do you make of I know that you've been following this quite closely. There's been a lot of reporting on and not a lot of reporting on what Saudi Arabia has been doing on who they've been targeting, but there's been a lot of attempts to demonize on Sarala and uh the Yemen armed forces uh for their recent targeting for example of uh the international airport in Riyad.
What are your thoughts on this? Well, I you know I just listened to uh the cost of war project at Brown University Watson Institute and several people who were invited guests to talk about the casualties and the body count if you will in Yemen from roughly the time period when I first joined which was when we first decided to provide not only extended range F-15s and Jams for all their iron bombs
and then the iron bombs with the Jams on them and then intelligence and then fuel and all manner of other things that we never fessed up to but the Pentagon was doing in order to help them fight in the original Houthy conflict if you will and I I'm stunned still we we now have another chalera outbreak apparently according to the one humanitarian who was on this webcast who is from the region
and from an NGO in the region and the Arabic name I can't even pronounce. Um, but she was very very detailed in her briefing on what's happening now and what's happening with the kalera and other aspects of it and looking at it from the perspective I had before and knowing that basically what was happening with the Saudis were being absolutely ruthless and not very good at what they were doing. But when
you're not very good from the air, you can be extraordinarily ruth ruthless with regard to civilians on the ground, which is precisely what they're doing. And I don't think it's changed very much, regardless of whom they've hired to fire their fly their airplanes or whether they're national or whatever. So I think what's happening now is not only is Saudi Arabia disintegrating and I'm waiting to see how the Wahhabist royal family connection
severs because I think that's the next big blow because these Wahhabists are not going to hang around with the royals if the royals are going down. So where are they going to go and what are they going to do? But I think this we're we're watching the endnotes for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Yeah. Let me just let me just add in in there that I don't I don't think the the
Russians the Russian government's much focused on that. Uh I had a I had a brief conversation with Ambassador Nabenzia uh at the you know he's he heads up the UN mission for Russia and uh you know it it really it's not on because I I raised said if you if you said if you considered uh the the fact that uh Muhammad bin Salman could be removed and you're going to you're going
to the whole government of uh Saudi Arabia could collapse. apps and he was like you think so you know he really hadn't hadn't focused on it and I I think this is I think there's been an assumption that there's greater stability on the Saudi side than than is actually the case and in fact what when when MBS basically took all of his cousins and other leading uh shakes hostage nine years ago
2017 they held him up in this hotel, shook him down. It was an extortion. Claimed he was fighting corruption, but what he was doing was pumping billions of dollars under under his direct control. Uh the the entire Saudi system became basically centered now on one guy. And that's uh that means you got a fragile single point of failure. And uh you know I think people assume that this NBS Chapter 7: Strait
of Hormuz crisis character was you know he was only 32 years old when he pulled off that coup. He's now 41. You know not to belittle 41 year olds but uh he wasn't exactly the most experienced. You know he he was barely out of playing uh video games. you know, Colonel Wilkerson, and I know Larry, you'll want to copy uh comment on this, too. You know, we have about two two ships
a day in the straight of Hormuz being fired upon by Iran and stopped, at least uh from what we know of. Uh there's also reports now by Reuters that says that if uh the United States and Iran cannot agree to a UN backed plan to move fertilizer through the straight of hormones, it could cause a huge food security crisis for some of the biggest parts of the world, Asia and Africa. Uh
there's also of course uh Yemen is as Larry said, Yemen is hitting everything and they've of course hit Aramco several times uh uh including the CEO's headquarters. Uh so how sustainable is this going on in the way that it is? because it doesn't seem like the United States has uh an off-ramp, but yet uh the crisis is every seems like every day we're now hearing more and more about uh the rubber
uh meeting the road here. And more and more I'm seeing scenes that tell me that the straight over muse is in great jeopardy. Um, I'm not even seeing scenes anymore that shows me that the channels are being used in an effective way for the benefit of Iran or Oman or whomever we might calculate is getting, you know, the basic stuff through. What I'm seeing is chaos. And what chaos does and I
go back to that 2009 petroleum disruption exercise that we ran in Beijing with most of the world's Marads and Lloyds of Londons and nations in fact to include Japan, Korea, China. Um, and I I go back to the things that were passing around that table that day from these experts, many of whom were based in the United States, if not really United States entities. and the caution that they gave about anything
happening as is happening now um were were quite riveting and I think I am seeing the real world example of that happening now I'm watching those insurance rates I'm watching other things that indicate what they told me to watch and what indication to and interpretation to put on that indication and I'm telling telling you we are in deep trouble. And the main purpose of this entire thing really if you go back
and look at theou yeah the nuclear program yeah ballistic missiles blah blah hogwash the main point of interest and rightfully so was the straight of hormuz and the traffic through it we failed completely and utterly failed now I won't jump in and say Iran has succeeded massively But they certainly have succeeded to a greater extent than we have. And they didn't need to. All they needed to do was do what I
just said, what I just briefly described. And they've done it. And we are going to pay the consequences majorly. And all the election bruhaha and ICE deploying to the streets and so forth is just going to cause a freaking civil war in this country. But they're not going to be able to control the fact that by November the 3 and surely shortly thereafter if not enough I think by November 3rd to
affect the elections the American people are not going to vote for Republicans or they're not going to vote if Republican they're going to be so disgusted they're not going to go vote. Yeah. There's been talks about record low turnout this happens it seems many some of these rallies he's been holding and when the camera slips ups and shows you what's happening in the audience right bad bad a lot a lot of
astrourfing happening at these rallies that's for sure uh Larry your comments on uh the situation with the fertilizer the crises are mounting the videos even Fox News felt compelled to show video of what happened to that mass massive container ship in the straight of Permu. Your thoughts? Well, again, and I've written about it extensively that [clears throat] it's not, you know, the the the tendencies to fixate on oil and oil really
is a big Chapter 8: Broad economic consequences 26 minutesproblem because it is a particular kind of oil that uh several refineries were built to handle. And so without that oil coming out of the um Persian Gulf, those refineries don't have anything to refine, which is one of the reasons there's been this great, you know, shortage of diesel around the world. U you know, and Japan, what's interesting, Japan right now, they've actually
had pretty strong reserves. So they they've been living on the reserves. their prices haven't gone up dramatically, but uh one of the reasons you've seen the prices rise in the United States is these refineries, they're not public utilities. In other words, they're not owned by the government. [clears throat and cough] They're private concerns. They're businesses. If you've got uh if if you know, let's say the the people in the United States
only want to pay $2.50 50 cents uh for a gallon of diesel. But you've got Europeans or Africans or people in Asia that say, "Hey, we'll pay you $5, double that." Where are you going to go sell your product? you're going to go to where the the higher price is, which is in order then for the United States to compete for that oil or that diesel, we have to raise our prices,
which is one of the reasons why diesel now is so high. But then on top of that, you've got the LNG. The shortages there have uh it's given a temporary boost. US has ample resources of LNG. But one of the problems is because the prices are going up. [clears throat and cough] We're seeing a number of big users of LG starting to shift to coal and uh so that they where they'll
they go to coal as a cheaper source uh of energy. And then you get into the uh with the lack of oil and gas being refined in the Persian Gulf that has led to a reduction in the the amount of sulfur and ura that was being produced. And and the same with helium and all of these they cascade into all facets of the economy. It's not just one area that it's involved
with the price of food because of the transportation costs entailed taking the food from, you know, where it's either grown or manufactured until the final point of delivery at the grocery store. Um the the the increased price that farmers are having to pay for both diesel and fertilizer. So that's making their crops, they're they're having to charge more uh for across the board. And any farm that uses fertilizer and diesel, th
those prices are up. Uh locomotives, airplanes, uh trucking industry, uh that's just on the diesel side. And then uh when you get into the fertilizer issue, that gets to food production. Helium gets to prod production of computer chips. This is this is not something that just uh you declare peace, they have an agreement that everything goes back to normal. Uh Carl Miller, who I've written about extensively, he's a he's a energy
analyst who works over in uh West Asia. [clears throat] He says the problem is a lot of these uh whale uh installations uh the well heads the pumps uh the actual infrastructure has been damaged and it's not generic offtheshelf piping. It is actually uh use the word bespoke. It's specifically designed for a particular system. And the problem you got added to that is there's not like a thousand companies out there able
to do this work. No, it's a very very very small number of companies that can do that work and they've got limited resources. So [clears throat] they can't suddenly address all five. You know, you've got demand from Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates. You got five different countries demanding. [clears throat] You got to prioritize some way. So, you know, very complicated and it's going to take um before the Houthies
started, you know, beating the hell out of the Saudis, the estimate from a Ramco was it was going to be two years to get things back to normal. Carl Miller said, "No, it's going to be 5 years." And he since since the Houthy offensive, he's revised that. Now, he says it's 7 to 10 years. Just to just to magnify that a little bit. Um, we were talking about, uh, what were we
talking about? We talking [clears throat] about the, uh, disruption exercise and I saw that video you had there. Um, I don't know if this is the case, but in that video, you noted there were a lot of little boats out there without boards on. Well, what happened to us that complicated everything, but it's just human nature is that when a container ship erupts like that on the ocean surface, everybody and his
brother goes out there to try and take advantage of it and they don't care about the danger in many cases. And that takes me back to the situation in the Red Sea that I explored a little more deeply yesterday. I want to know why would these people pay 3,000 US equivalent to go from Africa into the 32 minutesbowels of this war in Yemen. I know they're paying similar amounts to go the
other way, but this latest one that capsized or whatever and kill 150 or so people was going that way. And they said, "Have you noticed the conditions there lately? They're terrible. there. And so people are risking their life to go into a war zone to try and get some work from states that are falling. I [laughter] mean, you can't make this stuff up. This is truly a disaster. And we're augmenting and
deepening the disaster in East Africa, which is happening from everything from the climate crisis to no rain to too much rain. It depends on where you are, but they've got enormous problems. And then I go to the World Food Program and they tell me that there's going to be probably a hundred million people starving to death. And this, as Larry pointed out, this lack of ingredients for fertilizer and so forth is
going to augment and deepen that. Where are they going to go? Well, they're not going to sit around and just roost and die there. They're going to migrate or they're going to try to migrate. So, we've got a real horrendous problem on our hands that's going to develop over [clears throat] time and get more serious as that time goes by. Yeah. Colonel workers, I'm saying staying with you for a sec here
because I know you've got some time limitations. I wanted to just the couple of breaking things that just happened. Uh there are reports that Donald Trump is considering firing Pete Hegs just after the midterm elections in order to uh save face from whatever Iran war disaster will to keep Tom Massie from having a target, [laughter] right? Seems like that's the case. And then there's also, of course, the uh firing squad execution
that was supposed to happen on December 3rd. Donald Trump has said he will not be uh airing that live streaming that he just put that out this morning on Truth Social. Your reactions to this and and get Larry in here. As I understand it, he's still going to have it though. And right now we we have at the military religious freedom Chapter 9: Military morale and conduct foundation we have dozens if
not several dozens of all manner of religious affiliated Jewish Christian agnostics and so forth troops from across the spectrum but particularly from those that might be called upon to join the firing squad in their view. Um, and by that I mean ones around the area uh who are writing in and saying not going to do it. I'm not going to do it. Uh, I must find a way out. I'll be a
conscientious objector. I'll say it's against my religion or whatever. But this is unconscionable. They were being asked to do this and to do it on television in front of my children. One of them said there's no way on earth I'm going to do that. I'll mutiny before I'll do that. So he's caused an enormous problem within the same ranks that there are some that remain of the military, particularly those that feel
like they might be vulnerable to cult to be a part of this firing squad. Doesn't take much. This message has gotten out. It's gotten out and it's by and large completely rejected by the rank and file of the military. Yeah. Well, uh Larry bringing you in, same question to you. Well, yeah, it's uh um the the mental effect, psychological effect on soldiers who are asked to shoot unarmed people. Now, I'm not
I'm not, you know, look, this guy murdered 13, so he's not some innocent, but it's still uh shooting somebody who's unarmed, not seen as an immediate threat. you know, that's why they got away from uh doing firing squads to hangings and then electrocutions, you know, put put something in between or poison gas. Uh, I mean that's what that's what happened to the Vermach in World War II when they when they first
went into Ukraine uh and or Poland and then Ukraine and were uh a lot of the soldiers were being used to execute civilians. Uh it it caused a mental health crisis within the within the Vermach and that was one of the that was one of the I guess impetus for coming up with Cyclon B you poison gas and other other ways to kill people because they didn't doing it directly like that
was creating some real problems. Mo most people, just to amplify what Larry said, most people don't realize that the Nazis actually had a war crimes division. And if you go back and read some of the papers that were produced by that war crimes division and some people who really tried to do their jobs with respect to their mission and whether you're looking at the Captain Forest and who did that or whether
you're looking at other times as Larry's insinuating in Ukraine for example just rounding up all the civilians and shooting them then moving on to the next village rounding them up and shooting them again especially if they were Jewish. Yeah. Uh, all of that, it took a toll even on these bastards in the in the Vermach. [snorts] Well, uh, Colonel Wilkins, I know you only got a couple minutes left. Uh, maybe your
final comments and then Larry, maybe we can close out the show for another few minutes. Um, sure. Colonel Wilkerson, uh, your final comments on the situation because we went from the broader war situation now to the it seems like the chaos unfolding internally, uh, not just in Washington, but there's also Israel, uh, where I've been making, I don't know what you think of this, but I've been making the calculation that it
seems like the Netanyahu regime is really looking toward maybe the final polling before uh, letting all hell break loose. I don't know if you have that feeling. I know it's a very close election, but your thoughts on how internal crises are are influencing what's happening right now? Well, I don't know how exquisite BB's what I'll call political intelligence. Chapter 10: UN diplomacy and shift It's really an overall tapestry of intelligence. I
don't know how exquisite it is now because so many of its eyes and ears as it were have been dulled or have been completely turned off. I suspect that he is very much attuned with what I'm hearing from sources in well as far apart as Nazareth uh which is a very different community and Tel Aviv and Hifa and Jerusalem and other places in between. Um he's got to be aware that this
is uh probably the most difficult and contentious and possibly earthshattering election and the environment that surrounds it including Iran and Lebanon uh that he's ever been through. Uh and remember this is the guy that got Yet Zack RBI assassinated by the way he campaigned for one of his elections. No question in my mind about it. He knew he was aggravating the settlers to the point where one of them would step forward
with a pistol and shoot the guy. And he did. Um, and he did everything he could afterwards to try and get that settler forgiven and even get him out of jail. Uh, this is Netanyahu. There's nothing he won't do, nothing he won't say, no lie he won't tell, no element of his power paniply he won't turn to and use to include nuclear weapons. I got to say that. Uh, and so th
this is a very, very dangerous time. Not just because of that, but because the Iranians, I think, are resolute in opposing anything he does, even if it's back to the hill by the United States. 40 minutesWell, Colonel Wilkerson, uh, thanks so much for Before Before Colonel departs, let me just jump in with something that I I learned yesterday. I I I did a presentation at for it's called an Arya group. It's
not a formal UN Security Council session, but all members of the security council are represented there. It was Russia putting it on. What was fascinating there has been a significant shift in US policy. I mean, I the the US representative reminded me of a guy who's an arsonist who'd set fire to a house and he's standing out front with the fireman going, "Man, this fire is terrible. I wonder who set it.
You know, this is awful." I mean, this this guy was talking like Russia and China just got in. I mean, Russia and Ukraine got into this beef and, you know, he's boy is mystified how this has happened. 41 minutesSo I mean it because the previous time I was there there was sharp criticism. Yeah. From the US side and I asked you know Ambassador Nenzi I said am I imagining this or are
we seeing a significant shift in the US tone? He says yeah we're seeing definite shift. Now the Europeans on the other hand oh man they're out they're out of their damn minds. I mean they're just vicious. uh the there's going to be a war with Europe based upon the the vitriel particularly from the den the Denmark and and Latafia. Unbelievable what they said. I want to go over to the to the
Danish rep and say, "How's it feel to be the [ __ ] of the United States?" Like that Greenland stuff. Smaller you are, the louder you bark. Yeah. [laughter] Yeah. Okay. Sorry, but I want to give you that as background. That's good to know. Colonel, do you want to comment on that and then head out or I I can understand why someone with some sanity might be prevailing now, even if it's
only a [clears throat] person at the UN. Obviously, he's sort of been prompted to that. And that's the way those people up there act. You know, we have lackeyis up there as far as I'm concerned. Yeah. Yeah. Well, Colonel, it's always great to be with you. Look forward to our next talk and uh have a good rest of the day. Thank you. I'll see you tomorrow sometime, I think. Yeah. Yeah. [laughter]
Yeah. All right. See you next week. Bye-bye. Uh all right, Larry. Well, how about we follow up the last uh 8 to or so uh with what you just said about uh Europe. It seems like Europe is taking center stage or trying to at least uh with what it can optically and uh politically uh in this drive to war with Russia. And the United States finds itself, some people call this sequencing,
strategic sequencing, but the United States see simply seems to be completely mired in West Asia. Donald Trump said today he could end the Iran war whenever when he wants to, but there is no evidence of that at all. End it. I thought he already won it. I thought [laughter] I thought Iran was beat about 80 times by now. But he was already defeated. So he says, and then he I I did
see a comment. He said, "Boy, as soon as we defeat Iran, man, that price of gas, diesel is going to come right down." It's like, "Yeah, but you said we defeated them. So right, have they, you know, risen from the dead now? Yeah. I thought the deal with Russia, the the the great diesel deal with Russia was supposed to lower diesel prices, but I still go out there and it's over 620,
640, 650 a gallon for diesel out here in the East Coast. So, not good. Not good. Yeah. Yeah. you know the the uh but it it does appear that um there has you know there's been a change uh in US policy you know the way these state when Chapter 11: Warfare and industrial outlook this is like you got to understand the art of interpreting statements before the UN security council [cough] [clears
throat] they're not so much policy but what is said and how it is said is uh sends a clear indication of what uh how a government is going to act uh and respond and what was you know so there are 15 members of the security council um the and and and and in the in the past you know I I spoke there two years ago now and uh [clears throat] it was
very uh it was on Nordstream and at that time the US was insisting that this was you know Russia was involved and this this you know focused on Russia's responsibility for the war that you know they were the aggressor. You didn't hear that yesterday [clears throat and cough] that that that specific charge attacking Russia as being a hypocrite and a murder murderous country that came from four four countries. Um the France,
Denmark, Latvia and Greece of all people. The UK rep she was not as strident. I mean, I I put those those four European countries, man, they were in a category of their own. They were just, you know, if if you know, blood was dripping from their fangs, they they were that kind of uh they were insulting. Um they were aggressive. Uh so uh what what we're seeing is a shift with the
United States now reportedly has stopped providing some intel uh to Ukraine. [clears throat] They're also not getting the uh the data from Starlink that they were previously. So that's is hampering Ukrainian operations. So you're seeing you're starting to see see a shift uh in in in on the US side but given this animous that was so palpable on the part of these European countries uh I think I think they are going
to go to war with Russia. Uh I I think the in the next within the next year I think it's highly likely. I wish that I was otherwise but they are just I mean there's there [clears throat] is no they're not willing to compromise. They're not willing to talk. All they're doing is insults. Well, you know, I know we don't have that much time left, Larry, but that timeline you just gave
uh things in the in West Asia could very much well be unresolved. And while the United States uh has talked a a big game under the Trump administration about you know being separate from Europe and you know putting the responsibility onto Europe for their own problems on all of this uh there is still that article 5 uh NATO and there's still also the fact that the United States in material form has
continued all the way up until this point uh with various levels of uh uh to various degrees of supporting uh you 48 minutesknow Europe and Ukraine's effort to uh to to uh continue this war against Russia. So the United States and will therefore be caught it seems like in another war a major war which is be more disastrous than even what's happened with Iran. What's your thoughts on that? Yeah. Um I
you know I think there's some real uh let's see re reassessment going on. Uh the the you know the weapons shortage is real. You know and that's that's exposed uh that's been exposed in Saudi Arabia now. You know their air defense system. They used to have Patriot missiles. There are no more Patriot missiles. They're out. uh and or if they've got them, they're they're husbanding them in a way that they're not
using them. So, right now, the Houthis are basically they're hitting whatever target they want. And the Saudis with with even help from Pakistan and Turkey and the United States and Israel, they're not able to stop it. So, um I I think for from the United States standpoint, there's the recognition that we got limited resources and we don't have unlimited resources. And therefore uh Russia by by contrast it it has it has
developed a very sophisticated industrial capability that's able to rapidly uh supply frontline troops with systems and equipment that uh have been identified as they need it in order to continue fighting. And so the the Russians are able very quickly to produce, you know, new like the the drones. When you look at the the evolution of the drone technology in Russia back in summer of 2022, they were using drones supplied by Iran.
Uh and but now Russia is using its own jet powered that are driven and also under AI control. So they've really dramatically changed the game. Yeah, that's for sure. And the air defense capabilities of Russia are simply I mean, of course, we only get reports about Ukraine shooting everything down all the time. And that's the reports. Uh we still even get that with Saudi Arabia despite the obvious evidence uh we get
every single day of its uh losing war against Yemen, of how there really are no air defenses. But Russia's though are when you just think about the number of drones that are fired at at Russia in these attacks that the Western mainstream media plays up. Uh they're in they've got a a lot they've got a large volume that are very effective it seems or at least that's that's what the lay person
who stands outside of the military expertise uh can deduce from that. Your final comments there. Well, I was I was there on September 20th when u Ukraine launched 1,600 at least 1,600, some say, 1900 drones to try to penetrate the Moscow region. And I think out of 1900, five got through. So that's pretty remarkable success rate. And and the ones that got through, they didn't penetrate up deep into the city at
all. So, um you know what what we're looking at here is um the Russians are taking apart the Ukrainian capabilities piece by piece. Yeah. And then you compile that with the huge weapon shortages in other areas. This would seemingly be where the collective West, the combined West would want to go with warfare anyway, given that the US is draining all that it has in the Middle East. But Larry, great uh to
have you on. We'll head out of here together. Sonar 21 and Transition Protocol, both in the video description, so everyone should check those out. Thanks to everyone who gave super chats. Thanks uh to those who were moderating in the chat today. And then thanks to everyone who viewed. Hit the like button before you go, everyone. And I'll be back tomorrow with Scott Ritter, 2 p.m.
-
admin
- Site Admin
- Posts: 41616
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am
Re: PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE
Iran RAINS HELL ON TRUMP As MISSILES LAUNCHED! | The Kyle Kulinski Show
Secular Talk
Oct 15, 2026 The Kyle Kulinski Show
Transcript
Chapter 1: Rising tensions in the region All right, y'all. So, yet again, all hell has broken loose in the Middle East. You have Iran bombing the Gulf Arab states over and over. The Houthies are just are just just pelting Saudi Arabia over and over, bombing their airport. Um, and it's now it's looking really ugly. The straight of Hormuz, uh, Trump had been sneaking out oil for a
while, but now it looks like Iran is cracking down again. And they're even at the point now where they're bombing cargo ships. Iran is, and that was that's an escalation. That's a hey, we see what you're doing. Stop sneaking ships through. We will [ __ ] you up if you continue. Okay, so shout out to Midas Touch. Uh they're going to do a breakdown here for us. Iran unleashes total mayhem. Let's
listen. Here we go. Chapter 2: Impact on energy and supplies Iran was just able to strike six tankers in and around the straight of Hormuz, including multiple tankers in the Gulf of Oman. 10 super tankers on their way to the Fujera port in East United Arab Emirates. That's not really being discussed in the media. It's so crazy that you get more just like objective accurate news information from Midas touch and secular
talk than you do from like CNN and MS Now like wakey wakey where is the media on this? There's going to be we're going to have a massive economic depression. We're going to have a massive energy crisis. We're going to have gas that's like5 or $6 a gallon. People are going to be looking around going what the [ __ ] They were talking about a cat in the tree on CNN the
other night. Where where's been the coverage of this stuff? They're doing a piss poor job, bro. They really are just turned around because they ain't doing the shipto- ship transfers anymore where these smaller vessels pull up alongside these super tanker VLC's, very large crude carriers, and transfer the crude to the bigger ships. They're saying we ain't taking the risk anymore. Even if we're getting paid $1.5 million a day, not only is
there a crude shortage right now, there is a tanker shortage right now. And there's a shortage of just about everything, including there's going to be a grain shortage and food shortage soon as a result of the catastrophic war in Ukraine from Russia's invasion. Now, Donald, is anybody talking about that? You see CNN talking about that. You see MS Now talking about that. You see Fox News talking about that. The grain shortage
that's coming, never mind the super El Nino that we're dealing with, which also could lead to drought and famine and all sorts of serious issues. I'm telling you, this stuff is being underdised. Chapter 3: International cooperation Trump's been posting the following. I see so many comments from the radical left morons and lunatics that China and Russia are helping the wonderful Islamic Republic of Iran. It's it's literally a fact. They're 100% doing
that. If they are, it's at a very low level. But I don't believe they are at all. They have too much to lose and we would know about it and know about it very fast. Thank you for your attention to this matter, Donald J. Trump. You have China's foreign minister Wang Yei recently saying, "We are cooperating with Iran." You have Putin meeting with Iran's President Pescian just the other day in Turk
Manistan during the CIS summit talking about their cooperation. Russia has sent over a 100 workers from the Rosatam company energy company in Russia to work at the Bushir nuclear plant in Iran which is a joint venture between Russia and Iran. Russia is investing $25 billion, it says, in new nuclear power plants throughout Iran and bolstering its existing presence at the Busher plant. As we've been reporting as well, we also believe that
some of the diesel that Russia may be supplying to the United States is actually Iranian diesel. Donald Trump may want to look at a map and see that the straight of Hormuz in the Arabian Sea isn't the only way that Iran can get out its crude or its diesel. There's like land around Iran. There's something called the Caspian Sea near Iran, which also connects with Russia. So, there's other ways to get
diesel and other oil product to Russia. And Russia does not have a diesel surplus because of the Ukrainian strikes to even export. Russia doesn't have enough diesel for its own people. So, it's likely Iranian diesel that Russia will then be exporting to the United States. We've seen hundreds, some people have even said thousands of Iranian trucks in Russia with Iranian diesel. So, you have all of that going on while Donald Trump's
like, "Iran's navy is at the bottom of the sea. Iran doesn't have a military at all." Well, FARS and IRB, Iran's broadcasting network, broadcast footage last night showcasing Iran's anti-ship cruise missile and drone launches, UAV overflights, active mine laying operations. This was the video that was being shown last night on Iranian TV. Play this clip. Yeah, sure looks like their military is destroyed, doesn't it, y'all? Chapter 4: Iran's military capabilities What
Trump hasn't acknowledged and would never say, he wouldn't tell you this, Iran was preparing for this war for literally decades. Okay. When Donald Trump was redlining and kicking black people out of his apartments, when he was saying, "You're fired." on The Apprentice, when he was at Epstein orgies with underage girls, okay, with children, uh, Iran was preparing for this war. And they have a massive underground subway tunnel network where they can
send armament all over the country. And, um, their their defensive capability is just as impressive as their offensive capability. Because let's not forget Trump said we had no idea that they'd shut down the straight horses. We didn't know that. We by the way they tried to hide the fact that Iran immediately within the first week of the war took out 15 of our bases in the region and we can't operate from
them anymore. So understand in the same way he's like we had no idea they'd attack the Gulf Arab states. Really? This is like basic [ __ ] In the same way they were takenback by how successful and impressive the Iranian offensive strategy was. The defensive strategy is also just as impressive. And Trump pretends like we destroyed their navy. We destroyed their military. Uh which is the exact opposite of the truth. They're
they're in a much better position in this war than we are. And they know it's just a waiting game where, you know, they're just sitting back and watching the the world economy and the US economy collapse. And they have all the leverage and and the upper hand. They also showed how close they were able to get to these super tankers after they destroy the super tankers. I'll show you this. Let's play
it. And then Iran's been dropping video footage of all of them super tankers that it's been destroying. Like this one right over here um in the straight of Hormuz. Take a look at this video over here. The straight is open. We're getting all the oil we want through. We're even getting more oil than before the war. We totally control the straight. We're totally in control of it. Do you not understand yet
that everything this man says is a lie? I told you the story before, guys, but there was a time when literally a day before one of his businesses went bankrupt, he called a press conference and talked about how amazing that business was doing. Like, it's hard for people to really wrap their mind around the extent of the pathological lies of this man. It's hard for people to do that. Understandably so, because
you you just assume everybody around you is as honest as you are. But this guy's not. It's actually pathological. He's actually like something is wrong. He's not wired properly. Look at that. Oh my days. Here's another video of a tanker. Iran announced yet another tanker hitting a naval mine while exiting the straight of Hormuz. You can see for yourself now yesterday at the White House as Donald Trump was heading to Ohio
to give that deranged speech where he talked about MAGA Republican Ohio Senator John Chapter 5: Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia Eustid's ass. Don Donald Trump said he's got such a beautiful ass. I don't like to talk about men's ass. This men's ass, it's amazing. firm. Have you seen his hands? Oh, huge hands. Nice ass. I kid you not. Donald Trump I'm not going to show the clip again. I played the clip
a hundred times on different videos. You could watch it elsewhere. But as Donald Trump was right like a lunatic as Donald Trump was heading as he was heading to Ohio, he said uh the Houthies are misbehaving very bad. No good. He says no good. Here, play this clip. Well, the Houthies are misbehaving very badly. They're misbehaving very badly. No good. Now the Houthis known in the region as Ansarala they had warned
Saudi Arabia over and over again if you continue to blockade the Sana airport which is the Houthi capital in Yemen and you continue strikes on Sana and other Ansarala strongholds the Houthi onsales said we have drones and ballistics we can strike your airports this isn't what it used to be and you don't have the same protection you once had NBS Donald Trump's out of weapons for the United States he ran out
of interceptors for the US. You think he's going to protect you? He ain't protecting you. And then NBS continued to escalate against Ansarala. And so Ansar, as you now know from watching our show and probably doing the research on your own, they struck the Riyad airport, King Khaled. They also struck an airport uh nearby as well in Dam, Saudi Arabia, the King Fod International Airport. You know, the Riad strike led to
14 killed and 320 to 340 people injured. NBS has been trying to cover up all of the strikes in Riad. So, they're not even issuing or they were not issuing defense warnings to the civilian population. So, no one even knew these ballistics were coming by the time they struck the airport. Also, the US embassy in Riad put out a message yesterday that there have been numerous US citizens detained in Saudi Arabia
who have filmed or photographed some of the Houthi strikes in Saudi Arabia. It's against the law, punishable with massive prison time or worse if you film, take photographs, take videos of the Ansuralis strikes anywhere in Saudi Arabia. And the US embassy warning says there are US citizens arrested, locked up in Saudi Arabia right now. Does Trump talk about that? Absolutely not. But it should be noted as well. Think about all the
US citizens who've been murdered by Israel. Think about the US citizens who are uh prisoners in Israel. They don't say [ __ ] Mike Cuckabe is busy filating Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump is uh you know his cuck also because they got a MSAD vault with all sorts of pedophilia tapes of him on it. I mean these guys don't give a [ __ ] about Americans. They don't care in the slightest
about Americans. Well, from all of the reporting out there from Wall Street Journal and others, NBS is running scared right now. Right. The uh royal family is in a lot of trouble. Their weakness has been exposed. Saudi crown prince MBS is moving cautiously between heavily guarded palaces equipped with bunkers accompanied by handpicked Chapter 6: Saudi Arabia's vulnerability security guards as Houthy attacks intensify. They they are actually worried about Saudi collapsing, right?
Because it's not much of a country. It's literally like, you know, like a propped up royal family, like a mob family or a crime family. They sort of run the government. And it was kind of like a it's kind of like a pro welfare state, if you will, where, you know, if you happen to be a citizen of Saudi Arabia, you kind of get treated well, but then there's like literal slaves
that build everything and you take advantage of them and and it's backed by the US. And but now with the global order falling apart and the US blowing through our missiles and our interceptors uh and of course we'd help Israel over Saudi Arabia in an instant um and the Houthi now on the attack with nothing to lose. Yeah. They're worried that Saudi Arabia is going to actually just flat out collapse. And
that is I mean [ __ ] You want to talk about chaos and mayhem and all hell breaking loose. I mean because this is a region I mean you guys know this. It was from Saudi Arabia where the 911 hijackers came from. You got al-Qaeda. You got ISIS. You got incredible religious extremists. Um, you know, it it we we currently have an al-Qaeda guy running Syria and Trump put him in there.
So, but this is like we're talking about like the Arab Spring times 10 in terms of the the negative implications for people who live in the region. It it would be devastating. Saudi officials say the kingdom is running low on interceptor missiles and struggling to pres to protect its energy infrastructure and royal palaces. Also, the Wall Street Journal reported how Saudi Arabia is getting deeply frustrated at the United States and other
purported allies who are not helping them right now. Oh, are you shocked that the guy who bankrupts every company he's ever run and the guy who turns everything into absolute [ __ ] Are you surprised that this thing was a colossal failure? That your war backfired spectacularly? That Iran is more powerful than you thought? That the Houthies are more powerful than you thought? That uh the US is a paper tiger? That
we're prepared to fight a war in 1985 and not 2026? They also wanted this war. I mean, they might, you know, now they're like, "Ah, [ __ ] This was a bad idea." But they wanted this war. They thought, "Oh, it'll be easy. We'll take out Iran." Just like Netanyahu's dumb ass. Oh, it'll be so easy. We'll take out. Oh, really? How's that going? How's that going, you [ __ ] And
so, lots of people are also saying that as a result, Netanyahu is moving in. It was always Netanyahu's goal to try to bring Saudi Arabia into an alliance with Israel in order to attack Iran and to attack what Iran refers to as its access of resistance. And so, Netanyahu has been making the pitch to Saudi Arabia, let's be allies. let Chapter 7: Failed military strategies Netanyahu do to Ansarala what they did
in Gaza and West Bank um and basically level and destroy and uh commit atrocities and genocide um and you saw what they did in Gaza, you saw they do in Palestine. Let us repeat that for you and do that in Yemen against Ansarala. And you know what NBS is weighing right now is obviously amongst the population in Saudi Arabia. That would be deeply unpopular forging an alliance with Netanyahu. But NBS is
getting very desperate right now because Ansurala is striking basically with impunity. The I'll show you in a moment. I mean the the NBS and Saudi Arabia is running very low. They basically have no interceptors and even the interceptors provided by the United States are getting ineffective compared to some of the new Ansurala ballistics and some of these new ballistics. We saw Iran use these. I mean because Anzorala obviously is getting its
technology from I mean Iran's sets the benchmark um and then Ansarala and others have the same techn you get the technology with the cluster munitions. So even when a ballistic missile is hit it then drops the cluster and then the ballistic missiles are able to maneuver in the sky and move around the uh patriots and evade patriots. And by the way each Patriot is about 4 to5 million each. And you'll see
when I show you this next video, Saudi Arabia launches three, sometimes four Patriot interceptors to shoot down one Ensurala ballistic. So $20 million to shoot down a ballistic missile that may be $250, $250,000, half a million dollars or so. And let's not forget the end literal endless supply of drones. They have like an infinite supply of drones in Iran, but also uh the Houthis have them as well. Um it's I mean
it's just it's lopsided. It's guerrilla warfare. And the way it looks now, we started the war. The Axis of Epstein started the war. Uh the fourth Reich, the US and Israel started the war. They're going to finish it. Iran's going to finish it. The Houthies are going to finish it. That's what it looks like. And so, just think about it from that perspective as well. And what if Ensural just launches a
dummy ballistic in order to draw out $20 million of uh of of pack 3es of Patriots? So, I want you to see right here. This footage shows why Saudi Arabia has run out of Patriot air defense missiles and is now facing a critical shortage. Three to four interceptor missiles against a cheap Houthy ballistic missile. Let's play this clip. [groaning] Yeah. And this one account says, "I wonder what Saudi Arabia will do
when war breaks out with Iran again." All of these Middle East nations are out of interceptors pretty much at this point. And Iran has bolstered and built its ballistic capabilities, built its drone capabilities, built its FPV drone capabilities, built its submersive drone uh capabilities as well. and the US bases in the region have basically all been destroyed by Iran in the prior salvo of the Trump and Netanyahu catastrophic war. Um what
the airport in Dam looked like as Ansaralo was striking the King Fod International Airport over and over again. You can see this for yourself. [laughter] Chapter 8: Global economic consequences And then you see the prices of crude right now $107 a barrel and that keeps on going up. Also when we talk about the price of barrel of crude what we're talking about is a futures contract. So right now when we talk
about $107 a barrel of run crude that's a futures contract to purchase the crude in December. So, when we talk about a uh dated or spot price, what people are paying right now if you urgently need crude at this moment, the spot price for Brent is $150 a barrel for Brent. Now, you can't just put Brent in your car. You can't put Brent crude in your truck or if you know, it
has to then be refined. And the refining process costs a lot of money. And so, the real question is, what's the crack spread? the delta between the crude and we could even look at it the dated or spot price or the futures contract depending on how it's being acquired and the refinery price which is more um and what's that spread actually you know like and so it's bad right now there in
the market I mean and that's why you see your diesel and your gas prices absolutely surging and then the most recent warning I've been telling you about is Iran's uh top adviser to Ayatollah Mojaboki Moshin Razi has warned the US and US tech companies that if the US and Israel escalates again against Iran, they've already have $2 trillion Iran does worth of US assets in the Middle East data centers and fiber
optics and cables underneath these straight of Hermus that Iran will destroy right away. The data and the US doesn't have the capabilities to defend the region or the area anymore and Iran says we'll pick them all off. We'll destroy them all. $2 trillion in damage we'll call if will cause if you escalate. That's where we're headed. You Chapter 9: Political uncertainty ahead look at all this and you know the midterms are
coming up in the US and you think what is an unstable sociopathic 19 minutesnarcissist like Donald J. Trump thinking, right? Uh and he's never been able to hold an L in his entire life without losing his mind and crashing out and panicking and lying. And so I fear what everybody else fears, which is what are you going to do before or after the election? What are you going to do? Are you
going to do a ground invasion? Are you going to try to take Car Island or Keshum Island? Uh, are you going to do something like drop a MOAB? Are you going to try to do use a tactical nuke on Picax Mountain and then use that to try to declare victory? Like, what the [ __ ] are you going to do? Uh, I don't know. But it's not going to be good. And
he won't just do what he should do, which is uh effectively give into all the terms that Iran is asking for. shut down our bases in the region, pay them reparations for all the [ __ ] we broke, uh, you know, uh, get rid of all the sanctions on them, let them charge a fee for the straight of [ __ ] just let just do that and then, you know, we're basically
we can get back to normal within a certain time frame if you do that. But he would never do that because he can't hold an L and he doesn't want to give up US domination of, you know, of waterways. uh if you let them charge for the straight of Hormuz, then there's other countries that could charge for other straits and waterways that are by their territory. And all of a sudden, the
US empire is really no longer an empire. It's uh it's a washed empire. It's a crumbling empire. But it's crumbling anyway. So, what the [ __ ] Uh you shouldn't have started a war against a country that didn't attack us. Shouldn't have done an illegal war, period. And now there are consequences for that. And um but I fear they're in a hole and they will keep digging. Hey y'all, do me a
favor and like and subscribe. It helps out big time in the algorithm. Click the bell as well for notifications when videos drop. And watch that video on screen right now. You know you want to. Sync to video time
Secular Talk
Oct 15, 2026 The Kyle Kulinski Show
Transcript
Chapter 1: Rising tensions in the region All right, y'all. So, yet again, all hell has broken loose in the Middle East. You have Iran bombing the Gulf Arab states over and over. The Houthies are just are just just pelting Saudi Arabia over and over, bombing their airport. Um, and it's now it's looking really ugly. The straight of Hormuz, uh, Trump had been sneaking out oil for a
while, but now it looks like Iran is cracking down again. And they're even at the point now where they're bombing cargo ships. Iran is, and that was that's an escalation. That's a hey, we see what you're doing. Stop sneaking ships through. We will [ __ ] you up if you continue. Okay, so shout out to Midas Touch. Uh they're going to do a breakdown here for us. Iran unleashes total mayhem. Let's
listen. Here we go. Chapter 2: Impact on energy and supplies Iran was just able to strike six tankers in and around the straight of Hormuz, including multiple tankers in the Gulf of Oman. 10 super tankers on their way to the Fujera port in East United Arab Emirates. That's not really being discussed in the media. It's so crazy that you get more just like objective accurate news information from Midas touch and secular
talk than you do from like CNN and MS Now like wakey wakey where is the media on this? There's going to be we're going to have a massive economic depression. We're going to have a massive energy crisis. We're going to have gas that's like5 or $6 a gallon. People are going to be looking around going what the [ __ ] They were talking about a cat in the tree on CNN the
other night. Where where's been the coverage of this stuff? They're doing a piss poor job, bro. They really are just turned around because they ain't doing the shipto- ship transfers anymore where these smaller vessels pull up alongside these super tanker VLC's, very large crude carriers, and transfer the crude to the bigger ships. They're saying we ain't taking the risk anymore. Even if we're getting paid $1.5 million a day, not only is
there a crude shortage right now, there is a tanker shortage right now. And there's a shortage of just about everything, including there's going to be a grain shortage and food shortage soon as a result of the catastrophic war in Ukraine from Russia's invasion. Now, Donald, is anybody talking about that? You see CNN talking about that. You see MS Now talking about that. You see Fox News talking about that. The grain shortage
that's coming, never mind the super El Nino that we're dealing with, which also could lead to drought and famine and all sorts of serious issues. I'm telling you, this stuff is being underdised. Chapter 3: International cooperation Trump's been posting the following. I see so many comments from the radical left morons and lunatics that China and Russia are helping the wonderful Islamic Republic of Iran. It's it's literally a fact. They're 100% doing
that. If they are, it's at a very low level. But I don't believe they are at all. They have too much to lose and we would know about it and know about it very fast. Thank you for your attention to this matter, Donald J. Trump. You have China's foreign minister Wang Yei recently saying, "We are cooperating with Iran." You have Putin meeting with Iran's President Pescian just the other day in Turk
Manistan during the CIS summit talking about their cooperation. Russia has sent over a 100 workers from the Rosatam company energy company in Russia to work at the Bushir nuclear plant in Iran which is a joint venture between Russia and Iran. Russia is investing $25 billion, it says, in new nuclear power plants throughout Iran and bolstering its existing presence at the Busher plant. As we've been reporting as well, we also believe that
some of the diesel that Russia may be supplying to the United States is actually Iranian diesel. Donald Trump may want to look at a map and see that the straight of Hormuz in the Arabian Sea isn't the only way that Iran can get out its crude or its diesel. There's like land around Iran. There's something called the Caspian Sea near Iran, which also connects with Russia. So, there's other ways to get
diesel and other oil product to Russia. And Russia does not have a diesel surplus because of the Ukrainian strikes to even export. Russia doesn't have enough diesel for its own people. So, it's likely Iranian diesel that Russia will then be exporting to the United States. We've seen hundreds, some people have even said thousands of Iranian trucks in Russia with Iranian diesel. So, you have all of that going on while Donald Trump's
like, "Iran's navy is at the bottom of the sea. Iran doesn't have a military at all." Well, FARS and IRB, Iran's broadcasting network, broadcast footage last night showcasing Iran's anti-ship cruise missile and drone launches, UAV overflights, active mine laying operations. This was the video that was being shown last night on Iranian TV. Play this clip. Yeah, sure looks like their military is destroyed, doesn't it, y'all? Chapter 4: Iran's military capabilities What
Trump hasn't acknowledged and would never say, he wouldn't tell you this, Iran was preparing for this war for literally decades. Okay. When Donald Trump was redlining and kicking black people out of his apartments, when he was saying, "You're fired." on The Apprentice, when he was at Epstein orgies with underage girls, okay, with children, uh, Iran was preparing for this war. And they have a massive underground subway tunnel network where they can
send armament all over the country. And, um, their their defensive capability is just as impressive as their offensive capability. Because let's not forget Trump said we had no idea that they'd shut down the straight horses. We didn't know that. We by the way they tried to hide the fact that Iran immediately within the first week of the war took out 15 of our bases in the region and we can't operate from
them anymore. So understand in the same way he's like we had no idea they'd attack the Gulf Arab states. Really? This is like basic [ __ ] In the same way they were takenback by how successful and impressive the Iranian offensive strategy was. The defensive strategy is also just as impressive. And Trump pretends like we destroyed their navy. We destroyed their military. Uh which is the exact opposite of the truth. They're
they're in a much better position in this war than we are. And they know it's just a waiting game where, you know, they're just sitting back and watching the the world economy and the US economy collapse. And they have all the leverage and and the upper hand. They also showed how close they were able to get to these super tankers after they destroy the super tankers. I'll show you this. Let's play
it. And then Iran's been dropping video footage of all of them super tankers that it's been destroying. Like this one right over here um in the straight of Hormuz. Take a look at this video over here. The straight is open. We're getting all the oil we want through. We're even getting more oil than before the war. We totally control the straight. We're totally in control of it. Do you not understand yet
that everything this man says is a lie? I told you the story before, guys, but there was a time when literally a day before one of his businesses went bankrupt, he called a press conference and talked about how amazing that business was doing. Like, it's hard for people to really wrap their mind around the extent of the pathological lies of this man. It's hard for people to do that. Understandably so, because
you you just assume everybody around you is as honest as you are. But this guy's not. It's actually pathological. He's actually like something is wrong. He's not wired properly. Look at that. Oh my days. Here's another video of a tanker. Iran announced yet another tanker hitting a naval mine while exiting the straight of Hormuz. You can see for yourself now yesterday at the White House as Donald Trump was heading to Ohio
to give that deranged speech where he talked about MAGA Republican Ohio Senator John Chapter 5: Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia Eustid's ass. Don Donald Trump said he's got such a beautiful ass. I don't like to talk about men's ass. This men's ass, it's amazing. firm. Have you seen his hands? Oh, huge hands. Nice ass. I kid you not. Donald Trump I'm not going to show the clip again. I played the clip
a hundred times on different videos. You could watch it elsewhere. But as Donald Trump was right like a lunatic as Donald Trump was heading as he was heading to Ohio, he said uh the Houthies are misbehaving very bad. No good. He says no good. Here, play this clip. Well, the Houthies are misbehaving very badly. They're misbehaving very badly. No good. Now the Houthis known in the region as Ansarala they had warned
Saudi Arabia over and over again if you continue to blockade the Sana airport which is the Houthi capital in Yemen and you continue strikes on Sana and other Ansarala strongholds the Houthi onsales said we have drones and ballistics we can strike your airports this isn't what it used to be and you don't have the same protection you once had NBS Donald Trump's out of weapons for the United States he ran out
of interceptors for the US. You think he's going to protect you? He ain't protecting you. And then NBS continued to escalate against Ansarala. And so Ansar, as you now know from watching our show and probably doing the research on your own, they struck the Riyad airport, King Khaled. They also struck an airport uh nearby as well in Dam, Saudi Arabia, the King Fod International Airport. You know, the Riad strike led to
14 killed and 320 to 340 people injured. NBS has been trying to cover up all of the strikes in Riad. So, they're not even issuing or they were not issuing defense warnings to the civilian population. So, no one even knew these ballistics were coming by the time they struck the airport. Also, the US embassy in Riad put out a message yesterday that there have been numerous US citizens detained in Saudi Arabia
who have filmed or photographed some of the Houthi strikes in Saudi Arabia. It's against the law, punishable with massive prison time or worse if you film, take photographs, take videos of the Ansuralis strikes anywhere in Saudi Arabia. And the US embassy warning says there are US citizens arrested, locked up in Saudi Arabia right now. Does Trump talk about that? Absolutely not. But it should be noted as well. Think about all the
US citizens who've been murdered by Israel. Think about the US citizens who are uh prisoners in Israel. They don't say [ __ ] Mike Cuckabe is busy filating Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump is uh you know his cuck also because they got a MSAD vault with all sorts of pedophilia tapes of him on it. I mean these guys don't give a [ __ ] about Americans. They don't care in the slightest
about Americans. Well, from all of the reporting out there from Wall Street Journal and others, NBS is running scared right now. Right. The uh royal family is in a lot of trouble. Their weakness has been exposed. Saudi crown prince MBS is moving cautiously between heavily guarded palaces equipped with bunkers accompanied by handpicked Chapter 6: Saudi Arabia's vulnerability security guards as Houthy attacks intensify. They they are actually worried about Saudi collapsing, right?
Because it's not much of a country. It's literally like, you know, like a propped up royal family, like a mob family or a crime family. They sort of run the government. And it was kind of like a it's kind of like a pro welfare state, if you will, where, you know, if you happen to be a citizen of Saudi Arabia, you kind of get treated well, but then there's like literal slaves
that build everything and you take advantage of them and and it's backed by the US. And but now with the global order falling apart and the US blowing through our missiles and our interceptors uh and of course we'd help Israel over Saudi Arabia in an instant um and the Houthi now on the attack with nothing to lose. Yeah. They're worried that Saudi Arabia is going to actually just flat out collapse. And
that is I mean [ __ ] You want to talk about chaos and mayhem and all hell breaking loose. I mean because this is a region I mean you guys know this. It was from Saudi Arabia where the 911 hijackers came from. You got al-Qaeda. You got ISIS. You got incredible religious extremists. Um, you know, it it we we currently have an al-Qaeda guy running Syria and Trump put him in there.
So, but this is like we're talking about like the Arab Spring times 10 in terms of the the negative implications for people who live in the region. It it would be devastating. Saudi officials say the kingdom is running low on interceptor missiles and struggling to pres to protect its energy infrastructure and royal palaces. Also, the Wall Street Journal reported how Saudi Arabia is getting deeply frustrated at the United States and other
purported allies who are not helping them right now. Oh, are you shocked that the guy who bankrupts every company he's ever run and the guy who turns everything into absolute [ __ ] Are you surprised that this thing was a colossal failure? That your war backfired spectacularly? That Iran is more powerful than you thought? That the Houthies are more powerful than you thought? That uh the US is a paper tiger? That
we're prepared to fight a war in 1985 and not 2026? They also wanted this war. I mean, they might, you know, now they're like, "Ah, [ __ ] This was a bad idea." But they wanted this war. They thought, "Oh, it'll be easy. We'll take out Iran." Just like Netanyahu's dumb ass. Oh, it'll be so easy. We'll take out. Oh, really? How's that going? How's that going, you [ __ ] And
so, lots of people are also saying that as a result, Netanyahu is moving in. It was always Netanyahu's goal to try to bring Saudi Arabia into an alliance with Israel in order to attack Iran and to attack what Iran refers to as its access of resistance. And so, Netanyahu has been making the pitch to Saudi Arabia, let's be allies. let Chapter 7: Failed military strategies Netanyahu do to Ansarala what they did
in Gaza and West Bank um and basically level and destroy and uh commit atrocities and genocide um and you saw what they did in Gaza, you saw they do in Palestine. Let us repeat that for you and do that in Yemen against Ansarala. And you know what NBS is weighing right now is obviously amongst the population in Saudi Arabia. That would be deeply unpopular forging an alliance with Netanyahu. But NBS is
getting very desperate right now because Ansurala is striking basically with impunity. The I'll show you in a moment. I mean the the NBS and Saudi Arabia is running very low. They basically have no interceptors and even the interceptors provided by the United States are getting ineffective compared to some of the new Ansurala ballistics and some of these new ballistics. We saw Iran use these. I mean because Anzorala obviously is getting its
technology from I mean Iran's sets the benchmark um and then Ansarala and others have the same techn you get the technology with the cluster munitions. So even when a ballistic missile is hit it then drops the cluster and then the ballistic missiles are able to maneuver in the sky and move around the uh patriots and evade patriots. And by the way each Patriot is about 4 to5 million each. And you'll see
when I show you this next video, Saudi Arabia launches three, sometimes four Patriot interceptors to shoot down one Ensurala ballistic. So $20 million to shoot down a ballistic missile that may be $250, $250,000, half a million dollars or so. And let's not forget the end literal endless supply of drones. They have like an infinite supply of drones in Iran, but also uh the Houthis have them as well. Um it's I mean
it's just it's lopsided. It's guerrilla warfare. And the way it looks now, we started the war. The Axis of Epstein started the war. Uh the fourth Reich, the US and Israel started the war. They're going to finish it. Iran's going to finish it. The Houthies are going to finish it. That's what it looks like. And so, just think about it from that perspective as well. And what if Ensural just launches a
dummy ballistic in order to draw out $20 million of uh of of pack 3es of Patriots? So, I want you to see right here. This footage shows why Saudi Arabia has run out of Patriot air defense missiles and is now facing a critical shortage. Three to four interceptor missiles against a cheap Houthy ballistic missile. Let's play this clip. [groaning] Yeah. And this one account says, "I wonder what Saudi Arabia will do
when war breaks out with Iran again." All of these Middle East nations are out of interceptors pretty much at this point. And Iran has bolstered and built its ballistic capabilities, built its drone capabilities, built its FPV drone capabilities, built its submersive drone uh capabilities as well. and the US bases in the region have basically all been destroyed by Iran in the prior salvo of the Trump and Netanyahu catastrophic war. Um what
the airport in Dam looked like as Ansaralo was striking the King Fod International Airport over and over again. You can see this for yourself. [laughter] Chapter 8: Global economic consequences And then you see the prices of crude right now $107 a barrel and that keeps on going up. Also when we talk about the price of barrel of crude what we're talking about is a futures contract. So right now when we talk
about $107 a barrel of run crude that's a futures contract to purchase the crude in December. So, when we talk about a uh dated or spot price, what people are paying right now if you urgently need crude at this moment, the spot price for Brent is $150 a barrel for Brent. Now, you can't just put Brent in your car. You can't put Brent crude in your truck or if you know, it
has to then be refined. And the refining process costs a lot of money. And so, the real question is, what's the crack spread? the delta between the crude and we could even look at it the dated or spot price or the futures contract depending on how it's being acquired and the refinery price which is more um and what's that spread actually you know like and so it's bad right now there in
the market I mean and that's why you see your diesel and your gas prices absolutely surging and then the most recent warning I've been telling you about is Iran's uh top adviser to Ayatollah Mojaboki Moshin Razi has warned the US and US tech companies that if the US and Israel escalates again against Iran, they've already have $2 trillion Iran does worth of US assets in the Middle East data centers and fiber
optics and cables underneath these straight of Hermus that Iran will destroy right away. The data and the US doesn't have the capabilities to defend the region or the area anymore and Iran says we'll pick them all off. We'll destroy them all. $2 trillion in damage we'll call if will cause if you escalate. That's where we're headed. You Chapter 9: Political uncertainty ahead look at all this and you know the midterms are
coming up in the US and you think what is an unstable sociopathic 19 minutesnarcissist like Donald J. Trump thinking, right? Uh and he's never been able to hold an L in his entire life without losing his mind and crashing out and panicking and lying. And so I fear what everybody else fears, which is what are you going to do before or after the election? What are you going to do? Are you
going to do a ground invasion? Are you going to try to take Car Island or Keshum Island? Uh, are you going to do something like drop a MOAB? Are you going to try to do use a tactical nuke on Picax Mountain and then use that to try to declare victory? Like, what the [ __ ] are you going to do? Uh, I don't know. But it's not going to be good. And
he won't just do what he should do, which is uh effectively give into all the terms that Iran is asking for. shut down our bases in the region, pay them reparations for all the [ __ ] we broke, uh, you know, uh, get rid of all the sanctions on them, let them charge a fee for the straight of [ __ ] just let just do that and then, you know, we're basically
we can get back to normal within a certain time frame if you do that. But he would never do that because he can't hold an L and he doesn't want to give up US domination of, you know, of waterways. uh if you let them charge for the straight of Hormuz, then there's other countries that could charge for other straits and waterways that are by their territory. And all of a sudden, the
US empire is really no longer an empire. It's uh it's a washed empire. It's a crumbling empire. But it's crumbling anyway. So, what the [ __ ] Uh you shouldn't have started a war against a country that didn't attack us. Shouldn't have done an illegal war, period. And now there are consequences for that. And um but I fear they're in a hole and they will keep digging. Hey y'all, do me a
favor and like and subscribe. It helps out big time in the algorithm. Click the bell as well for notifications when videos drop. And watch that video on screen right now. You know you want to. Sync to video time
-
admin
- Site Admin
- Posts: 41616
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am
Re: PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE
NO MORE TRUCES: "Yemen Has Run Out of Patience" w/ Shireen Al-Adeimi & Annelle Sheline
Drop Site News
Oct 15, 2026
Yemen's war has reached Riyadh. Ansar Allah has repeatedly struck the Saudi capital's main airport in the past week, killing 13 people in the deadliest attack on Saudi soil in over a decade, while Saudi jets pound northern Yemen and the ground offensive Riyadh backs stalls. Ryan Grim talks with Dr. Shireen Al-Adeimi, a Yemeni-American scholar at Michigan State University, and Dr. Annelle Sheline of the Quincy Institute, a former State Department official who resigned over US support for the genocide in Gaza. They discuss how Ansar Allah turned an 11-year war back on Saudi Arabia, a century of Saudi meddling in Yemen, why MBS is unwilling to walk away, what the war means for Vision 2030, Yemen's north-south divide, the myth of Ansar Allah as an Iranian proxy, and whether Trump will join the fight.
00:00 Intro
2:32 How Ansar Allah Is Bringing the War to Saudi Arabia
7:33 A Century of Saudi Intervention in Yemen
12:19 MBS and Washington's Role in the War
21:53 Why Ansar Allah Is Done With Truces
26:33 Why Saudi Arabia Is Unwilling to Walk Away
30:46 What the War Means for Vision 2030
36:26 Ansar Allah, the South and Yemen's Ideological Divide
43:46 How the War Could End in Yemen's South
46:20 The "Iranian Proxy" Myth
55:34 Will Trump Join the War?
58:55 Closing
Transcript
Chapter 1: Intro Yemen's war is escalating fast and now it's hitting Saudi's capital. Over the past week, Ansarah has repeatedly struck Riyad's main airport. Saturday's attack killed 12 people and wounded more than 300, the deadliest strike on Saudi soil in over a decade. It also shut the airport down just as a major petroleum conference was about to begin. Riad is answered with waves of air strikes across
northern Yemen, including on Sana's airport while backing a ground in offensive by its allied Yemeni forces. That offensive stalled quickly. President Trump has said the US quote may join in, but he has shown no interest in breaking the ceasefire that he reached in Yemen last year. Washington has fueled the conflict for more than a decade, killing hundreds of thousands of people along the way. To help us unpack how we got here
and where this is headed, we're joined by two guests. Dr. Shireen Aladimi was born in Yemen and lived through two of its civil wars. She teaches at Michigan State University and has been one of the leading voices opposing US support for this Saudiled war on Yemen since at least 2015. Dr. Annel Shelene is a research fellow at the Quincy Institute who studies the Gulf monarchies and and has reported from Yemen. She
served in the State Department's Office of Neareastern Affairs and resigned in 2024 in protest of US complicity in the genocide in Gaza. Her book, Weaponizing Tolerance: Arab Monarchies and American Support for Moderate Islam, comes out from uh Cambridge University Press in 2027. Uh Shireina Nell, thank you so much for being here. Really appreciate it. Thanks for inviting me. Thank you for having us. And so, Dr. I want to start with you.
Um, what has, you know, I've been following your work on, uh, Yemen for a very long time. You've been gracious with your time in the past. I'm curious, what has, what has surprised you the most about the 2 minuteskind of about the Ansar counteroffensive that launched in July? And can you kind of set set people up with, you know, where are we now? Like, and and where do we find ourselves in
this conflict? So going back to 2015 when Saudi Arabia first started bombing Yemen and you know what they were saying ostensibly was to restore Yemen's legitimate government into power. There's a long story there, but when they first started Ansarah were in an alliance. They found themselves in an alliance with the former president Salah and they were Chapter 2: How Ansar Allah Is Bringing the War to Saudi Arabia trying to fight on
the ground, but most of their capabilities were limited. Most of their attacks were limited to fighting at the Saudi border. So, limited missiles into Saudi Arabia. uh mostly fighting troops, most of them mercenary troops, either Yemeni troops that are allied with the former government or um various factions that the UAE and Saudi were paying for to fight on the ground, but it was mostly limited to on the ground fighting. And so
fast forward 11 years, I think what surprises me the most, what surprises most people the most is how capable they've gotten. the fact that we're talking, you know, we started the segment with the um effects of this particular retaliation on Saudi and not just Saudi civilians for the first time essentially being killed in this war, but Saudi airports being targeted multiple times, Saudi oil fields, gas fields, um really hitting them at
their economic centers. This is not something that Saudi Arabia is used to. It's not something that most of the world has seen. There were glimpses of it back in 2022, for example, when they did hit Aramco and hit Abu Dhabi and Ja. And in my view, that's what brought the Saudis to the negotiating table in 2022. But these were still not the same kind of scale of attacks that we're seeing now.
So I think what surprises me the most is just seeing them being able to take over so much territory in Yemen after essentially a stalled front line for multiple years as well as these capabilities that have now led to Saudis facing war in their own country for essentially the first time. And Anel, I'm curious for your perspective. It's kind of the same question. Um you've you've been watching this for a very
long time. What what has surprised you about it? Um I certainly agree with Dr. Ali's um perspective and the fact that this level of escalation and specifically Ansah's ability to take that territory as as she mentioned we had been Yemen had been in a period of relative calm um to be clear the situation on the ground remained quite dire in particular in the context of so many countries not only the United
States but many other countries cutting aid budgets there simply there was not much attention going to the the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Yemen. Um but there was not active fighting and so Yemen was not getting much attention and so as as Dr. Aladi said when was suddenly able to take this territory it was a little bit like had they been capable of that this whole time? Um I I think that unfortunately
one thing that isn't terribly surprising but is different. Um and I very much agree with her analysis that the reason we saw Saudi Arabia agree to the truce was that Allah demonstrated they could really hurt Saudi Arabia back in 2022 and they were willing to negotiate that truce and and end the attacks. And so hopefully now we would also have Saudi Arabia recognize Antar can hurt us even more than than we
realized they were capable of. And yet instead of saying, "Okay, how do we address this? We know how we addressed it last time, we agreed to a truce. Maybe let's do that again." Instead, Saudi Arabia is escalating and seeking all of this international support. So, it's not terribly surprising that they're that they've made that decision, but it's still my assumption is eventually Riad is going to figure out that this is the
most negotiation and some kind of truce would be the most effective way of protecting Saudi infrastructure and Saudi civilians. And yet, the question is how many people are going to die before the leadership in Riyad reaches that conclusion which they had arrived at years ago. And uh Dr. Aladmia, what is the what is the Saudi calculation here? Um and how can you kind of give us a little bit of the history
of Saudi involvement with um with Yemen? I was interviewing uh 7 minutesHussein Albuki uh yesterday and he was talking again about how in the 1930s even you know there was there was dispute over some provinces that have been um given to were given to Saudi Arabia basically by the British as they were drawing up uh the lines but that you know from Yemen's perspective have never um you know have never fully
been been settled. But I'm curious what like h how what is the relationship between uh Saudi Arabia and Yemen over those years? Uh and what role has Washington played in uh kind of fmenting the conflict there? Chapter 3: A Century of Saudi Intervention in Yemen Yes. So very much a historical enemy situation from the perspective of Yemenes because they had been involved in Yemen and destabilizing Yemen for um 90 years. So
I was also going to reach to the 1930s when you first asked that question because that is the origin of Saudi aggression in Yemen where these tribes were Yemeni tribes. Yemen has a long civilization, thousands of years of civilization. It's not um you know these tribes were did belong to Yemen and essentially were given these three provinces Najan, Nasid and Jizan were given to Saudi Arabia. So that was the beginning of
the dispute. But also in the 1960s when northern Yemen was seeking to re remove itself from the uh Imamit monarchy. This by the way was a Zadi monarchy run Imamit essentially run by different imams uh grandfather, father, son. And there was a Republican uprising in the 1960s against the imam. And they were met with the imam was met with support from Saudi Arabia. So the Saudis were very interested in maintaining the
Imam in Yemen, maintaining the monarchy, which many Yemenes, most Yemen saw as very repressive. And um they worked with the British. There was also Israeli support at the time, but British support and Saudi support for the Imam lasted for a number of years before, you know, and led to the siege of SA and eventually the Yemenes, the republic and revolution um prevailed and Yemenes were, you know, they got the Republic of
Yemen, they formed the Republic of Yemen and eventually Saudi Arabia was had no choice but to recognize the new leadership in Yemen and to recognize the Yemen Arab Republic. And so, um, these are pivotal moments in Yemen's history where Saudi Arabia has intervened. And so, it wasn't too surprising when they got involved in 2015, but they were involved in such a way that betrayed their ignorance about Yemen. uh you have a
country in Yemen that is extremely resistant to outside influence to imperialism is staunchly republic republic a republic compared to the monarchies that are surrounded by soaia UAE all of these are absolute monarchies Yemen is not and yet they thought that they could in intervene to supposedly you know what introduced democracy to Yemen you know installed the quote unquote legitimate residents of Yemen. It was essentially they just needed to have control in
Yemen as they had always had. So think about the US for example and its treatment of Central and South America treating it as its backyard, making sure that you know they have a say in the system of government. That's very much the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. And what they didn't calculate now is that you know this wasn't in fact going to be a two-eek war as Muhammad bin Salman had
predicted. It wasn't decisive. It wasn't a storm. going back to the decisive storm title that he named this mission. But it's an 11-year quagmire that just made, you know, more enemies for Saudi Arabia has now risked Saudi Arabian uh infrastructure, their economy, their vision 2030, you know, that they've had since um about diversifying the economy and investments and so forth. And he's willing to risk all of that for uh for hubris.
This was a resume war, nothing more than that. and Saudi could have maintained influence in Yemen in different ways, but they chose to intervene in 2015 because they saw that in particular were going to be one of the forces, if not the most dominant force in the new Yemeni political scene post Arab Spring and that was not favor favorable to Saudi Arabia. Yeah. And Dr. Dr. Schol, can I get your state
department's perspective on this for so uh I I remember covering um a lot a lot of this from different directions back in 2015 and 20 2016 2017 as so as as NBS so and here's my kind of memory of it at the time that NBS is serving as defense minister uh and he is trying to angle to become crown prince like he's trying to oust his brother and he pushes this war
where he's going, you know, it's going to give him something that, you know, he can heroically uh champion. Remember here in Washington, uh the UAE was effectively his his lobbyist like the and and Ysef Alaba, the ambassador to the UAE, was kind of taking NBS around Washington and Chapter 4: MBS and Washington's Role in the War telling everybody like this guy is actually the moderate to your to the themes that you
write. This is the moderate future of Saudi Arabia. And look, he's also tough. He's, you know, he's putting the uh putting, you know, Ansar back in their place and and he's, you know, showing that he's a decisive leader. The CIA, as I recall, uh was strongly resistant to this narrative like they they were very much in the camp. I can't remember where the State Department was. I know there's a lot of
factions in the state department, but they they very much were on this in the camp of Muhammad Nay. That was the kind of crown prince that they knew that they thought he would be a much more stable uh figure. They would say MBS is is impulsive. Um clearly that has been that has been borne out. And so he succeeds. He take he takes over the role of uh crown prince. And so
because his succession, this is what I want to get your take on. To me, because his succession was so heavily bound up in this war, it feels then combined with his personality that he's finding it almost impossible to walk walk it back like to find a a place of coexistence because right now it seems like he can either win militarily or he can coexist peacefully with a Yemen that has Entallah as
a dominant, you know, player in a in a coalition government and he seems incapable of that and but he's also incapable of winning outright militarily. Uh so is that is that right? Like is is has he just trapped himself in a in a psychological corner? Uh and and how what is what was your experience at the time? How did from inside the state department? How did people uh understand and follow the
kind of rise of MBS? Well, [clears throat] I I was not yet in the State Department at at that time, although I do very clearly remember sort of his charm tour where you had all of these figures certainly Thomas Freriedman fawning over him. You know, he traveled around and was fetted as specifically around as as you mentioned what I study this idea that I will return Saudi Arabia to moderate Islam. Um,
which was fairly amusing. But I I think a major factor that punctured that narrative was the brutal murder of Jamal Hashoi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October of 2018. And if people may recall this ended up becoming a fairly significant 15 minutesfactor in American politics because that was that that was also a midterm year. That was the year the squad came into power or was elected to Congress. Um and
and subsequently there was we also saw at that time some of the truly horrifying um level of starvation that Saudi Arabia's blockade was imposing on Yemen. I remember the New York Times did a very big expose on this with just these photos of these horribly emaciated children. And so there was very much this anti-Saudi push and that was that was politically useful for Democrats saying that Trump backed Muhammad bin Bones as
he was nicknamed that Trump was backing this horrifying intervention in Yemen. Um and then subsequently Biden also used that on the campaign trail saying that he was going to make Saudi Arabia pariah. um and did when when Biden came into power immediately lifted the FTO designation on Ansah that Trump had slapped on them at the very last moment of his administration. um and by and and has Trump in his second administration
re-imposed that that foreign terrorist organization designation um which just a quick side note on that doesn't necessarily have that significant of an impact on itself because it's not plugged in to American financial streams but does have an impact for um humanitarian organizations trying to operate certainly for um efforts even even if Saudi Arabia, for example, were to want to return to the the road map that it had agreed to back in
late 2023. Part of that was that it had agreed to pay salaries of um civil society worker or or of um government workers in under law controlled territory and now with the FTO designation that's very difficult. Um but to go back to your question about is Muhammad bin Salman sort of um incapable of achieving this? I don't think so because again he after seven years of a horrifying campaign extremely expensive also
from Saudi's perspective um at a time when Muhammad bin Salman I mean there's been a lot of um criticism of the the hu grotesque amount of waste of vision 2030 this kind of obscene projects in the desert that were in no way realistic those have gotten a lot of attention and the fact that they've now been scaled down. I think a lot of people are saying, "Well, I told you so." But
Muhammad bin Salman has also been involved. I mean, vision 2030 is more than just those big mega projects. I mean to a certain extent Muhammad bin Fman has been able to transform specifically the the role of of Saudi women because his until until this transition the Saudi state had to pay Saudi men enough money that they could provide for all of their female family members who were not permitted to work or
were not permitted to engage in public life. And this was just hugely expensive also because the Saudi men often weren't necessarily doing the real work. and then you still needed a foreigner to do the actual work. Um and so this this is this was not sustainable. And so the fact that you have seen quite significant um incentives by the Saudi government to encourage the employment of women um I think in and
in other ways as well they have been able it's it's certainly um not there yet. Obviously the Saudi economy remains heavily dependent on fossil fuel but they are making progress in trying to get there. And this is what instability whether it's the the US-led war on Iran or the the um attack well the the the ongoing war against Yemen. This threatens vision 2030. So all that to say Muhammad bin Salman recognized
that because he's tied his own legitimacy and his own crown to the success of vision 2030. And so if it fails, it is going to be I think a question of do we actually see him become king and if he becomes king, is he able to do so? To go way back to your point about Muhammad bin Naif, his um cousin who had been the crown prince. I certainly remember those that
time when there were many people in Washington who were who quite preferred him as you said they they knew him. they um felt that MBS was this sort of rash, you know, too young, too inexperienced. There was no way he was actually going to become crown prince and if you know that they surely he would be replaced. And then people may remember the the when MBS put many of his own relatives
as well as other wealthy and elite Saudis in the Ritz Carlton and and didn't let them out until they I mean basically extorted them for for money. Um and it was that action and others that NBS took that really consolidated his own control over the entirety of the Saudi state. So all that to say NBS is capable of negotiating and he has done so in the past. I think his sense at
the moment is he's he thinks that the United States and the rest of the world will intervene on his behalf because of the pressures put on the global oil economy. the global oil market as a result of Trump's and and Israel's incredibly foolish war against Iran. Um, but I I my assumption is at a certain point MBS will recognize that the best way for him to achieve vision 2030 is to achievah
and and achieve some kind of truce. Shire, I'm curious for your take on that. What what kind of truce do you think uh Ensalah is willing to accept at this point? And I saw there was it looked like there were reports of a strike on the on the palace and Aiden today. Yeah. Do you know do you know what happened there? And I think that whatever he agreed to in 2022, I
think that's off the table. I think what what he would have to offer at this point seems to be much more significant. What what is your sense of what it would take at this point? My sense is that Yemen is no longer interested in a truce. It's no longer interested in any kind of roadmap. It's interested in a full end to Saudi interference in Yemen, military interference, the blockade. Um, you know,
why should Yemen have to beg Saudi Arabia to use Yemen's oil and gas revenues to pay civil servants in the north? 80% of the population lives in the north and now taking more territory. Chapter 5: Why Ansar Allah Is Done With Truces Add to that percentage. Why should Yemen beg Saudi Arabia to um allow it to have free trade with the rest of the world without going through either UN verification systems
in Djibouti which came through as a result of UN Security Council resolution 2216 that Saudi essentially wrote and put forward. Uh and then all the humanitarian goods are inspected in Saudi Arabia. Why should Yemen have to ask Saudi Arabia, please, can you pretty please stop bombing our schools and our airports and our you know uh and can we have permission from you to operate our own airlines in our own skies. So
I think the point the ansula and Yemenes have reached is that the the the time for a negotiated uh truce is over. the time for small concessions here and there over um and Yemen has run out of patience in the four years where there was an active well a formal truce was between uh April and October of 2022 but it essentially continued beyond that beyond the former six formal 6 months of
the truce for four years until Saudi broke that in July of this year but in those four years Saudi Arabia wasn't doing nothing they removed Hadi from power essentially told him thank you for your service. Now, we're going to put a new legitimate government in Yemen, quote unquote. And [snorts] they created the presidential leadership council, which is based in Saudi Arabia. Right now, it skews heavy toward warlords who are loyal to
Saudi Arabia and who receive their funding from Saudi Arabia. But at the time, it was split between Saudi and UAE support. And you know, they've armed these people. They have fortified the troops in particular, they were fortifying his troops along the western coast. They were building airports, the UAE and Saudi Arabia and really amassing this um military presence in order to take advantage of the l of fighting for them to amass
this massive presence and then take over. They miscalculated has never been successful at anything. I don't know why they keep throwing money at him. Um and he failed and was able to take over the western coast. And so now the calculations have completely shifted and I think there is no choice for Saudi Arabia if their oil pipes are getting hit and their ships are prevented from using Babendub Strait and their airports
are getting targeted. Um vision the 2030 might just look like them not having anything other than you know going back to riding camels. And so it's a really dire situation for Saudi Arabia and this attempt to try to get the international community whether it's um you know Pakistan and Turkey with the Mecca Defense Pact to intervene on his behalf or to get troops from Syria to fight in Yemen because he's you
know creating this sectarian narrative that are targeting Mecca and Medina. um or you know calling Trump personally calling Trump and then getting um denied US involvement or even getting intelligence from Israel as he recently just did through Sentcom. He's trying all the wrong ways instead of just admitting defeat essentially. But I think for somebody like Muhammad bin Salman, it's not in his this is like we said somebody impulsive and um you
know this war has been he's operated with a lot of hubris. I can't imagine him actually doing this willingly. I think he would have to be forced either internally Saudis saying hey we got to just take this back control because this isn't he's not leading us anywhere good or externally with the United States for example saying you know what it's not just Saudi interests that are going to that are uh impacted
in Saudi Arabia it's also US interests and so let's put an end to this. So what what I don't understand, if I could just follow up with you on this, is why he won't just do that. Like buddy, like if the only thing they're asking for is you leaving Yemen, like you're not Yemen. Like leave the country. Like leave them alone. Like I I genuinely like I'm looking out at my neighbor's
house here. If I was think if I was telling my friend I have this incredible problem like my neighbor's so awful to me and he's demanding that I like stop stealing from him and stop like going into his garage and and stop like my friend would be like stop going [laughter] into his garage stay in your stay in your house and you're going to be fine like so it can't be that
simple like what why won't he just mind his own business and just go back to Saudi Arabia Chapter 6: Why Saudi Arabia Is Unwilling to Walk Away what was it all For Ryan, what was spending Jamal Kashoji? We mentioned him earlier. He mentioned before he died his by his estimate that the Saudis were spending $200 million a day in Yemen. What was it all for? How can he justify this to his
country, to his people? How does he justify 11? It's sunk cost fallacy. It's like how does he save face at this point when there was no reason for him to be in Yemen in the first place? his father who's scenile I think but his you know uh the kings before him knew not to get involved militarily in Saudi in Yemen. Saudi Arabia is a flat desert. Yemen is like Afghanistan, right? And
so you have some flat desert areas but most of the concentration of people are in those highlands of Yemen, right? And so you don't just for the geography alone you don't get involved. Add to that when the Turks were in Yemen for on and off for 500 years and there were rebellions for 500 years by the Yemenes because never never did they say you know what Turkey we Totan Empire we accept
you that was never an option for Yemenes or when the British were in Yemen in South Yemen for 128 years there were uprisings you know just yesterday was the 63rd anniversary of uh the October 14th revolution where the British were kicked out of South Yemen after years of armed resistance. And so you have a country in Yemen that is going to resist foreigners no matter what. And yet you decided that you
were going to intervene in their politics and arm all of these different factions and think it was going to end well for you. You know, I remember I was in a meeting with Tim Lender King who was the um um Biden's envoy to Yeah. in 2021. [clears throat] He came to Michigan. He wanted to meet a group of Yemenes. He was not expecting I was going to be in that group, but
um he he was presenting himself like, you know, oh, the US is just a mediator. And I said, no, you're a belligerent, [laughter] like you should not be supporting the Saudis because this is just going to end as it just did in Afghanistan. This was right after the Afghanistan uh debacle. And so I told him, I said, "You're going to what? wait for 20 years, arm, you know, this so-called government for
20 years only for the to come take over just as the Taliban came over and took over. And he's like, well, what would we have them do? Just have Yemenes make their own decisions? And I was like, actually, yeah, actually, yes, that's exactly what you do. That is exactly what you do. You leave Yemenes to make up their own minds and make their own decisions. And so, this is the kind of
hubris we're talking about. These people are not used to seeing Yemenes as capable. Even like let's look at the narratives around, you know, Ansar or the Houthi as they call them, right? Like they just woke up one day and they're striking Saudi Arabia. Like there's no reason that there's no uh, you know, resistance movement that they don't represent the will of the Yemeni people. And so Yemenes have just been presented as
this irrational group of people who are making these decisions that are you know just you know the terror designation for example right like people don't have a understanding of Yemen history and politics they don't have an understanding of the Yemeni people and who we are as a people uh and so they make these decisions that they think are going to benefit them in the short term but they're not making these they
don't understand the long-term calculus of these decisions. Yeah. And Dr. Interesting. You mentioned uh the vision 2030. Can you explain for people like what that is and also this like Davos in the desert that he's been celebrating and what what effect is all of this having on because you know this vision 2030 is getting closer. It's you know it's almost 2027. [laughter] This is not ideal I wouldn't think. [snorts] Yes. Um,
so Vision 2030, um, you know, was, I believe, first announced in in 2015 when they hit a 15-year runway. And that that was the same year that you had a significant fall in oil prices. And so, on the one hand, Saudi Arabia was trying to fully transform its economy and yet suddenly did not have the resources it might have expected to do so. Um, by the time uh MBS was embarking on
his charm tour, Chapter 7: What the War Means for Vision 2030 which was um kind of early uh 2018, I think was when he came and sort of toward the United States and was fedded by um all all the the the wealthy bigwigs. Um by that point, it was a little bit more clear what exactly vision 2030 was going to be. But again, what has tended to get the most attention have
been the huge mega projects. Things like the line, which was supposed to be a a city in a line sort of stretching across the desert. Um it just sort of mindboggling, right? They never really they couldn't sort the traffic out and gave up on that. Yeah. Well, and and so like that that has understandably gotten a lot of attention and it especially I think gotten attention because many of those mega projects
have have either utterly failed or just been completely walked back and Saudi Arabia has had to spend billions of dollars simply cancelling contracts. But at the same time there have been other aspects of vision 2030 which have been for example this effort to employ women which I for for the sake of Saudi female friends I know they are very grateful for for an opportunity and Saudi male friends as well and I
I think a crucial part of the the reason we haven't seen more resistance to this effort to sort of transform specifically gender dynamics inside Saudi Arabia has to do with the King Abdullah scholarship program where you had the the previous king spent a massive amount of money to send hundreds of thousands of Saudi students, which were mostly sort of the the millennial generation, abroad, primarily to English-speaking context, so the UK, the
US, Australia, Canada, and and part of why they did that was there they were building Saudi universities, but they weren't yet um I guess quite quite where they wanted them to be. And they wanted this generation of of upcoming Saudis of whom you know Muhammad bin Salman is a member of that generation although he did not uh participate in this program. Um I think this is why you've seen less resistance to
a really fundamental societal transition inside Saudi Arabia. Um that which is part of vision 2030 because you have this generation of Saudis that say yeah we just want a normal country. We want to be able to interact men and women with each other to not have it be this this, you know, to be separated by religious police, you know, like the the level of oppression that was required to sort of maintain
this draconian degree of of of the Wahhabi, the state sponsored form of Islam. Again, I think once they started to release that a little bit, there were some expectations because historically in Saudi Arabia when you had um for example, when they introduced education for girls or television, this this produced huge opposition um or things like when the the um the seizure of the Grand Mosque in Mecca in 1979, you know, this
was also this um a group of Saudis who felt that Saudi society was transforming too quickly and they wanted to sort of reestablish this very deeply conservative interpretation of Islam. Um, and you just didn't have that this time. And I think I think and the reason I'm saying all this is partly to say that I do think there there's a there's a population inside Saudi Arabia that although they can't necessarily say
so publicly because they would be locked up along with everyone else who has tried to speak out publicly to criticize the the government. um who who are not interested in in trying to fight wars in Yemen or um continue to to sort of interfere in Yemeni affairs. And so although right now, you know, I personally and I imagine uh Dr. Shirin as well are dealing with a lot of Saudi bots or
angry uh Saudis on social media. Um they have massive bot farms to kind of promote their agenda. Um but but to the extent that you have just ordinary Saudis that a don't want all this money wasted on these stupid projects they they need you know they recognize that we Saudi society need this money. There's still poverty in Saudi Arabia like it's such a wealthy country and yet it doesn't necessar it doesn't
provide for for its people the way that that wealth ostensively would allow it to do. Um, and furthermore, this this generation that that is is that wants to see sort of the success of aspects of vision 2030 of sort of transforming Saudi society. Um, but that's not interested in continuing to wage a war on Yemen um or really anyone else. So, uh, Dr. I wanted to ask about what a let's say
Saudi Arabia does either implode uh or decide that it's going to withdraw and uh and stop backing militant forces inside uh Yemen what things might look like in after after that when it comes to governing Yemen. And I and I wanted to pick up on what you were talking about earlier with the history history of Yemen. you know, in South Yemen, of course, after independence in the 1960s, uh, became, you know,
an independent Marxist state, had some of the most progressive laws when it came to women's rights and so forth. And and the southern movement, Iraq, still draws on some of that history, but I'm curious how much of an ideological heir it is to that socialist project or if it if we're so far removed from that that it's something else completely entirely. and Chapter 8: Ansar Allah, the South and Yemen's Ideological Divide
Ansar meanwhile comes from a very different tradition. Um I've heard you describing them as kind of fighting for the soul of Islam. Could you walk us through like these different ideological traditions, what they represent and how how they might come together in a kind of governing coalition in when there is a an independent and sovereign Yemen. Assuming that we get to that. Yeah. I think we also have to go back to
Wahhabi um influence in Yemen um in 37 minutesorder to understand how far removed current separatist movements are for example from the socialist Marxist government that was you know under which where where I was born when I was born in Aden it was a Marxist London state. Um so Saudi began influencing you know different poorer countries with their especially with their Wahhabi ideology in the 70s and the 80s and then intensified in
the '90s. So Yemen is religiously is a center for Zadi Islam which is a branch of Shia Islam that is different from uh the 12 Islam that the Iranians practice for example or Iraqis or Lebanese practice. So it's pretty unique. I think Yemen is where most if not all Zadis reside. Um but they also had peaceful coexistence with Shafi Muslims and uh Shafi Sunni Muslims and you also have the influence of
Sufi Islam within the Shafi movements in Yemen. So this is a country with you know coexistence, religious coexistence, tolerance beyond tolerance really like mutual respect and understanding. We don't have Sunni and Shia neighborhoods. We don't have you know intermarriage is not an issue for example. Um and when you had Wahhabi Islam come into Yemen through not just you know our education. I I lived through the time in the '9s where our
textbooks were all of a sudden our Islamic textbooks were printed in in Saudi Arabia um as a way to try to influence the next generation of people into Wahhabi Islam. But they were also building and pouring a lot of money into Yemen and building these uh Salafi you know schools Wahhabi schools in centers like Z like Sada where Ansarah movement originated in you know the border in northern Yemen that borders Saudi
Arabia and where the center of Zadi Islam was in Yemen and they were building these institutions in SA and Sada and all sorts of uh places across the north and south and trying to influence Yemen Islam toward fundamentalist Islam. And that is the origin story of Ansadah. They were preaching against this encroachment. They were fighting for the soul of Islam in Yemen in particular because they didn't want to be influenced. They
didn't want to have to entire tribes were you know converting for example from Zadi Islam to Wahhabi or Salafi. So this was huge in Yemen in the 1990s and they were speaking out against it. Why should Saudi Arabia come and impose their relatively new and extremely dangerous ideology? It's, you know, Wahhabi Islam cannot coexist with anybody else. They only spread in Saudi Arabia through violent means through massacring Shia in Iraq, for
example, in different places. And so, um, this is not an ideology that you can coexist with. So that influence has had huge impact on South Yemen after independence from the British and after the fall of Marxism. Um so Yemen reunited with South Yemen reunited with North Yemen in 1990 because the USSR was collapsing and they were going to lose its only source and financial backing. Um, and so they kind of, in
my view, rushed into unity, even though unity is something that every Yemen for generations had wanted. But within four years, southern Yemen felt like they weren't getting they weren't getting a good deal out of unity. And the cultures were so different and the influence was different. And because they only made up 20% of the population, they were surprised, I think, to see that they also only made up 18% of parliament in
the first elections that happened. I don't think, you know, those are my people. We shouldn't have been surprised. We were only 20% of the population, right? But for a proud people, you're like, "Wait a minute. How are we one out of five? We're how are we one out of five? We are the historic." Yeah. Yeah. Uh and so that created a lot of resentment with northern Yemenes and they announced the success
secession from the north and Ali Abdulah had the time the president of North Yemen of Yemen uh bombed bombed South Yemen back into unity and so most people in the south feel like they were bombed into unity. They were forced back into unity. So it doesn't feel like an organic choice, like a choice they made. They feel like the four years where they were in unity with northern Yemen, they didn't get
much out of it. And the years that followed, you know, you had um a collapse of many of the institutions that my parents generation, for example, grew up with, like you mentioned, you know, uh freedoms and certain rights and law and order, I think, to to a large degree, right? and so uh relative safety but there was also a lot of infighting with the Marxists and there was the socialist movement was
not a stabilizing force in South Yemen 1986 for example the civil war 13-day war that killed 10,000 people in Aden alone right bodies piled up on the streets and so it's not like that was an ideal movement either or it didn't have a chance to mature into what it could have been um so I think the movement right now there is an active secessionist movement uh they loosely draw on that nationalist
Arab, you know, kind of secessionist spirit, but by no means they are are they the inheritors of the um you know, the the socialist founders or even their revolutionaries because they would have been anti-imperialists had they actually been the true inheritors of those revolutionaries who fought the British. They would not have accepted UAE money. They would not have accepted Saudi money. They would not have accepted US interfering in Yemen system. They
would not have worked with Ala. They would not have done any of the things that they have done in the last 11 years. So if they do gain independence, at what cost? Onsar Allah has been sending signals as far as I can tell that that they're not interested in moving on Aden. Uh but I'm curious like how like how does that how does this end? Do in a federated situation, two different
countries like what is um what what is your sense of of how Ansar would like it to unfold and or and how Yemen Yemenes in in southern Yemen forget the UAE and others who have obviously their own designs but you know how do they see it reaching some type of equilibrium I think without funding from the outside sources people's calculations will change and that is what I think we'll see in TA
as well. Without funding from Saudi forces, I wonder how many people are actually willing to fight and so they may just accept the status quo and to see what happens. Um I think in the Chapter 9: How the War Could End in Yemen's South south it's a bit of a different situation because there is a lot of resentment for northerners at large, not just on northerners at large. We unfortunately grew up
post 1994 with a lot of resentment, you know, against northern Yemenes. And I include myself there because I live through this. And so, um, that's not going to be you can't win them by force. I think if there is some kind of recognition of an autonomous region that may work out for a while at least until people can see that we are all Yemen and hopefully if things go well under rule
in a future Yemen with a coalition government of course that includes other Yemenes because there's no way that they would be able to do it alone. There are too many factions in Yemen. um maybe people will resign to the fact that maybe this is a better choice or a better alternative, but you know, right now the alternatives aren't great. You have the the leader of the STC who essentially was kicked out
of the Saudi PLC uh in January and called the traitor and now he reemerged after 9 months just the other day to announce mobilization against Assad, to announce, you know, his commitment to a secessionist state and to ask for Saudi recognition of a secessionist state. They're not going to give him recognition, you know, like they're backing forces that are trying to take back territories from Ansah, they're not going to accept uh
a bifurcated country. Ansad might, I think, for a time or I think they might under the understanding that maybe there's a future goal for unity is my sense, but I don't think the Saudis are willing to to do that. And Dr. Shelene, we haven't talked about Iran yet. I' I've been kind of stunned whenever I turn on cable news and watch coverage of this conflict uh to continue to see Ansarah well
they call usually called the Houthis on CNN or whatever else described as an Iranian proxy and and it surprises me because you would think that after this much time having passed and them not acting in that way, 46 minutesyou know, the war between the US and Israel and Iran uh unfolded without them getting involved. Um last year they cut a bilateral ceasefire agreement with uh the United States. When they when they
launched their counter offensive, this time it was because Saudi attacked their Chapter 10: The "Iranian Proxy" Myth airport. like the you would think that after so many examples of them acting autonomously, you would say, "Oh, this is an autonomous force that I need to analyze as as its own independent actor that has its alliances and has its like shared interests but has its own motivations as well." Uh maybe they'll catch up
to that eventually one day. But I am curious how you think the the Iran war fits into this. that there seems to be a high likelihood that, you know, conflict breaks out again in a significant way either before the election or or or after it. And I wonder how you think that um that plays into the the conflict that's still unfolding between Ansarah and Saudi Arabia. I I [clears throat] certainly agree
with you that this tendency to refer to Ansadah as merely a proxy of Iran or also as a terrorist organization um is just I mean just not well informed and not that analytically useful if you're trying to understand them and and their their actions. I think, you know, most recently I would say that we saw um an instance where Iran and the the the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council were all
supposed to meet in Salala, the a city in southern Oman to discuss the possibility of a in the unlikely event that Trump manages to reach some kind of agreement to end the war, then that this was going to be ready the the GCC states and Iran would have worked out kind of how are we going to manage and administer the straight of form moves perhaps with fees but but recognizing that these
states also have an interest. Um and I I essentially Iran is wants that Iran wants to show look we have managed to figure out with uh the the other countries that that manage this territory or that they're adjacent to this waterway. Um and well this the Saudis called it off. Um this was just following um an an attack on the East West pipeline which was not carried out by an Allah. It
was carried out by um an Iraqi militia. Um but it was in the broader context following Ansarah's announcement that they were going to impose this blockade in exchange for the Saudi blockade on their territory. They were no longer going to allow Saudi oil exports through the Babal Menddev. Um and so that was an instance where Iran really didn't want what either Ansarah or these Iraqi militias to to derail this this meeting
that was supposed to happen. And it happened anyway, you know, because Ansalah specifically is pursuing their own objective and they have been long before the February 28th war, you know, Trump kicked that off with Israel. Um, and and you know, to the extent that like why do we keep hearing this narrative? To some extent it may be laziness. To some extent people may be drawing on the framework they they think they
understand around husbah and the relationship there. But that is also an instance where you had emerged in response to Israel's occupation of Lebanon and then and then has received support from Iran. Um but you know this it's it is somewhat frustrating because you don't then have um the the Saudibacked government being referred to as a Saudi proxy or the ST the Southern Transitional Council being referred to as as an Emirati proxy.
although by that same line and and again they they are pursuing their own agendas but I think especially the the PLC really and and I I I really um appreciate Dr. Admir's um can parallel to Afghanistan where you had the USbacked government that collapsed in the absence of US support. And so I I anticipate something similar um in in the event that if Saudi were to withdraw its support for the the
the presidential leadership council, we would similarly they have to evacuate their hotel rooms. Yes. Well, and they're already in Riyad, so they'd be fine. But but the you know the the bureaucracy underneath them. Yeah. Um any final thoughts that that that people who are following this you kind of might might misunderstand? Dr. Aladmia um anything you'd want to um kind of any any kind of misunderstandings out there that are worth correcting
before we before we wrap? Yeah, I think going back to why they keep linking them to Iran, it's just also you're talking to an American audience. You hear Iran, you think enemy, and so it's um you know, it's a euphemism from enemy for enemy. Saudi also has the same relationship with Iran. So they can just say we're fighting Iranians in Yemen and the population is like, "Oh yeah, that makes sense. We
can't have the Iranian, you know, influence and blah blah blah." And so it's a very easy quick heristic for them to just be able to sell whatever happens in Yemen. I remember when you know Yemen was under almost full blockade by Saudi Arabia and children are starving. People would say yeah but you know those Houthies really should not be doing this this and that. And I'm like they're not starving the Houthies.
They're not starving. They're starving the entire Yemeni population, right? And so it's easy to ignore the humanity of Yemenes when you just say well Iran backed. Um, and so I think people really need to go past that because it just shows again either willful ignorance of Yemen or just lazy journalism or these, you know, agendas to minimize indigenous movements. Why aren't they called, as an said, you know, asked, why aren't they
called the Saudi proxies when they are based in Saudi Arabia? Imagine if LA were based in Iran. What would they say? Right. And so, uh, and also going back to Yeah. No, I was just saying if they really want to they need to update their talking points. If they really want to tank on's approval rating here in the United States, they should call them Israeli backed. But I'm not giving that would
that would torch. But anyway, you were saying I was also saying like at the very inception of uh the war before Saudi intervened when when marched over from Sada and took over the capital in September of 2014, Iranians very publicly said, "We advise you not to do that." and very publicly responded, "It's none of your business." And so they are not, you know, they're allies, but they have always had their own
agenda in Yemen. Uh Iran doesn't get to dictate, but Iran has of course supported them over the years. Yeah. Um just for just for fun, let me put up this article I wrote uh in uh back in what is this 20 2015. I was in a um an off thereord meeting. I can talk about it now because they put it on the record uh with Barack Obama and he told us he's
like, "Yeah, we had inter we had intelligence that Iran was urging on not to go in to sana. Don't do it. Don't do it." So like we knew they eventually confirmed that to me. Um I said afterwards, you know, like this is news. like we should we should write this. Um and so actually this is with uh Akbar. Um I wrote this with Ali Watkins 54 minutesand uh Akbar Akmed who just
published his book on the on the State Department. But yeah, the US had uh basically intercepts so they they could hear the Iranians telling them don't don't do this, don't do. So our national security establishment has long been quite aware um that enta acts indep independently that they work with Iran but they they call they call their own shots and we've known that for more than 10 years um since the very
beginning since the protest that turned into a a takeover that precipitated this. Um but uh any any final thoughts on that or if if not I'll I'll let you guys go because you've been very generous with your time. I I I just wanted to add um that in some ways I've been a little surprised that Trump did not yet give in to NBS's request to directly start bombing. And my interpretation of
that is it may be that the US well the Trump 55 minutesadministration is closer to the UAE and so that they are kind of letting the Saudis deal with the consequences of when when the Saudis kicked the UAE out uh earlier and in January of this year following the the sudden takeover of of territory by the southern secessionist forces. Um, and so I do anticipate that once Trump feels he's made MBS
squirm a bit, he probably will get involved directly. Um, which I think would very much be a mistake. Um obviously uh and Chapter 11: Will Trump Join the War? and my hope is that perhaps he might also face some constraints as a result of his this incredibly foolish war and the overextension of the US military as a result where our navy is escorting ships out of a train of war moves one
by one and people ask why haven't gas prices come down. It's like oh well maybe because all of the gas is going to the navy ships. Yeah, Shireina. Shireen, I'm curious for your your take on that final point because my take too is that he certainly won't do it before the midterms because he doesn't want them blocking cargo traffic going through the Red Sea which would lead to immediate price increases on
everything. Um, and also, you know, he tried that already and he exactly. And so, let's remember what happened in 20 24 and 2025 before the active ceasefire. By the way, he treated as a state essentially by negotiating the ceasefire with them, right? Um, they made it very difficult for US carriers. I think I heard something that this is the first time since World War II that people were firing at US carriers
and so and Sah did that and they were causing a lot of material damage um you know using fishing boats and missiles that are worth thousands of dollars and creating multi-million dollar losses for US carriers. And so you had the carriers going up and down the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and losing, you know, um, F-35s, I think, or whatever they were, you know, planes were falling off the board
and the sailors were confused and the missiles were coming and there these reports that there's a Pentagon report that came out in the aftermath of this that saying like if you couldn't handle with their very primitive technology, how are you going to face anything in the South China Sea, right? And so it was incredibly embarrassing for the United States to be involved and to be um kicked around by with their limited
uh technological capabilities. Um and from my understanding Trump is the one who went to Arman and said, "Hey, can you talk to these guys? Let's let's put an end to this." And so um I think he remembers very well what happened. He may still foolishly get involved because we have leaders unfortunately who are making these decisions uh foolishly like mentioned earlier but um he may still get involved but I think he
needs to remember what happened the last time he got involved. Yeah. Shireen Aladini uh Anel Shelene thank you so much to both of you for joining me. Really appreciate it. Thank you so much for inviting us. Got it. All right that'll do it for us today. Thanks so much for watching and we'll see you next time. Sync to video time
Drop Site News
Oct 15, 2026
Yemen's war has reached Riyadh. Ansar Allah has repeatedly struck the Saudi capital's main airport in the past week, killing 13 people in the deadliest attack on Saudi soil in over a decade, while Saudi jets pound northern Yemen and the ground offensive Riyadh backs stalls. Ryan Grim talks with Dr. Shireen Al-Adeimi, a Yemeni-American scholar at Michigan State University, and Dr. Annelle Sheline of the Quincy Institute, a former State Department official who resigned over US support for the genocide in Gaza. They discuss how Ansar Allah turned an 11-year war back on Saudi Arabia, a century of Saudi meddling in Yemen, why MBS is unwilling to walk away, what the war means for Vision 2030, Yemen's north-south divide, the myth of Ansar Allah as an Iranian proxy, and whether Trump will join the fight.
00:00 Intro
2:32 How Ansar Allah Is Bringing the War to Saudi Arabia
7:33 A Century of Saudi Intervention in Yemen
12:19 MBS and Washington's Role in the War
21:53 Why Ansar Allah Is Done With Truces
26:33 Why Saudi Arabia Is Unwilling to Walk Away
30:46 What the War Means for Vision 2030
36:26 Ansar Allah, the South and Yemen's Ideological Divide
43:46 How the War Could End in Yemen's South
46:20 The "Iranian Proxy" Myth
55:34 Will Trump Join the War?
58:55 Closing
Transcript
Chapter 1: Intro Yemen's war is escalating fast and now it's hitting Saudi's capital. Over the past week, Ansarah has repeatedly struck Riyad's main airport. Saturday's attack killed 12 people and wounded more than 300, the deadliest strike on Saudi soil in over a decade. It also shut the airport down just as a major petroleum conference was about to begin. Riad is answered with waves of air strikes across
northern Yemen, including on Sana's airport while backing a ground in offensive by its allied Yemeni forces. That offensive stalled quickly. President Trump has said the US quote may join in, but he has shown no interest in breaking the ceasefire that he reached in Yemen last year. Washington has fueled the conflict for more than a decade, killing hundreds of thousands of people along the way. To help us unpack how we got here
and where this is headed, we're joined by two guests. Dr. Shireen Aladimi was born in Yemen and lived through two of its civil wars. She teaches at Michigan State University and has been one of the leading voices opposing US support for this Saudiled war on Yemen since at least 2015. Dr. Annel Shelene is a research fellow at the Quincy Institute who studies the Gulf monarchies and and has reported from Yemen. She
served in the State Department's Office of Neareastern Affairs and resigned in 2024 in protest of US complicity in the genocide in Gaza. Her book, Weaponizing Tolerance: Arab Monarchies and American Support for Moderate Islam, comes out from uh Cambridge University Press in 2027. Uh Shireina Nell, thank you so much for being here. Really appreciate it. Thanks for inviting me. Thank you for having us. And so, Dr. I want to start with you.
Um, what has, you know, I've been following your work on, uh, Yemen for a very long time. You've been gracious with your time in the past. I'm curious, what has, what has surprised you the most about the 2 minuteskind of about the Ansar counteroffensive that launched in July? And can you kind of set set people up with, you know, where are we now? Like, and and where do we find ourselves in
this conflict? So going back to 2015 when Saudi Arabia first started bombing Yemen and you know what they were saying ostensibly was to restore Yemen's legitimate government into power. There's a long story there, but when they first started Ansarah were in an alliance. They found themselves in an alliance with the former president Salah and they were Chapter 2: How Ansar Allah Is Bringing the War to Saudi Arabia trying to fight on
the ground, but most of their capabilities were limited. Most of their attacks were limited to fighting at the Saudi border. So, limited missiles into Saudi Arabia. uh mostly fighting troops, most of them mercenary troops, either Yemeni troops that are allied with the former government or um various factions that the UAE and Saudi were paying for to fight on the ground, but it was mostly limited to on the ground fighting. And so
fast forward 11 years, I think what surprises me the most, what surprises most people the most is how capable they've gotten. the fact that we're talking, you know, we started the segment with the um effects of this particular retaliation on Saudi and not just Saudi civilians for the first time essentially being killed in this war, but Saudi airports being targeted multiple times, Saudi oil fields, gas fields, um really hitting them at
their economic centers. This is not something that Saudi Arabia is used to. It's not something that most of the world has seen. There were glimpses of it back in 2022, for example, when they did hit Aramco and hit Abu Dhabi and Ja. And in my view, that's what brought the Saudis to the negotiating table in 2022. But these were still not the same kind of scale of attacks that we're seeing now.
So I think what surprises me the most is just seeing them being able to take over so much territory in Yemen after essentially a stalled front line for multiple years as well as these capabilities that have now led to Saudis facing war in their own country for essentially the first time. And Anel, I'm curious for your perspective. It's kind of the same question. Um you've you've been watching this for a very
long time. What what has surprised you about it? Um I certainly agree with Dr. Ali's um perspective and the fact that this level of escalation and specifically Ansah's ability to take that territory as as she mentioned we had been Yemen had been in a period of relative calm um to be clear the situation on the ground remained quite dire in particular in the context of so many countries not only the United
States but many other countries cutting aid budgets there simply there was not much attention going to the the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Yemen. Um but there was not active fighting and so Yemen was not getting much attention and so as as Dr. Aladi said when was suddenly able to take this territory it was a little bit like had they been capable of that this whole time? Um I I think that unfortunately
one thing that isn't terribly surprising but is different. Um and I very much agree with her analysis that the reason we saw Saudi Arabia agree to the truce was that Allah demonstrated they could really hurt Saudi Arabia back in 2022 and they were willing to negotiate that truce and and end the attacks. And so hopefully now we would also have Saudi Arabia recognize Antar can hurt us even more than than we
realized they were capable of. And yet instead of saying, "Okay, how do we address this? We know how we addressed it last time, we agreed to a truce. Maybe let's do that again." Instead, Saudi Arabia is escalating and seeking all of this international support. So, it's not terribly surprising that they're that they've made that decision, but it's still my assumption is eventually Riad is going to figure out that this is the
most negotiation and some kind of truce would be the most effective way of protecting Saudi infrastructure and Saudi civilians. And yet, the question is how many people are going to die before the leadership in Riyad reaches that conclusion which they had arrived at years ago. And uh Dr. Aladmia, what is the what is the Saudi calculation here? Um and how can you kind of give us a little bit of the history
of Saudi involvement with um with Yemen? I was interviewing uh 7 minutesHussein Albuki uh yesterday and he was talking again about how in the 1930s even you know there was there was dispute over some provinces that have been um given to were given to Saudi Arabia basically by the British as they were drawing up uh the lines but that you know from Yemen's perspective have never um you know have never fully
been been settled. But I'm curious what like h how what is the relationship between uh Saudi Arabia and Yemen over those years? Uh and what role has Washington played in uh kind of fmenting the conflict there? Chapter 3: A Century of Saudi Intervention in Yemen Yes. So very much a historical enemy situation from the perspective of Yemenes because they had been involved in Yemen and destabilizing Yemen for um 90 years. So
I was also going to reach to the 1930s when you first asked that question because that is the origin of Saudi aggression in Yemen where these tribes were Yemeni tribes. Yemen has a long civilization, thousands of years of civilization. It's not um you know these tribes were did belong to Yemen and essentially were given these three provinces Najan, Nasid and Jizan were given to Saudi Arabia. So that was the beginning of
the dispute. But also in the 1960s when northern Yemen was seeking to re remove itself from the uh Imamit monarchy. This by the way was a Zadi monarchy run Imamit essentially run by different imams uh grandfather, father, son. And there was a Republican uprising in the 1960s against the imam. And they were met with the imam was met with support from Saudi Arabia. So the Saudis were very interested in maintaining the
Imam in Yemen, maintaining the monarchy, which many Yemenes, most Yemen saw as very repressive. And um they worked with the British. There was also Israeli support at the time, but British support and Saudi support for the Imam lasted for a number of years before, you know, and led to the siege of SA and eventually the Yemenes, the republic and revolution um prevailed and Yemenes were, you know, they got the Republic of
Yemen, they formed the Republic of Yemen and eventually Saudi Arabia was had no choice but to recognize the new leadership in Yemen and to recognize the Yemen Arab Republic. And so, um, these are pivotal moments in Yemen's history where Saudi Arabia has intervened. And so, it wasn't too surprising when they got involved in 2015, but they were involved in such a way that betrayed their ignorance about Yemen. uh you have a
country in Yemen that is extremely resistant to outside influence to imperialism is staunchly republic republic a republic compared to the monarchies that are surrounded by soaia UAE all of these are absolute monarchies Yemen is not and yet they thought that they could in intervene to supposedly you know what introduced democracy to Yemen you know installed the quote unquote legitimate residents of Yemen. It was essentially they just needed to have control in
Yemen as they had always had. So think about the US for example and its treatment of Central and South America treating it as its backyard, making sure that you know they have a say in the system of government. That's very much the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. And what they didn't calculate now is that you know this wasn't in fact going to be a two-eek war as Muhammad bin Salman had
predicted. It wasn't decisive. It wasn't a storm. going back to the decisive storm title that he named this mission. But it's an 11-year quagmire that just made, you know, more enemies for Saudi Arabia has now risked Saudi Arabian uh infrastructure, their economy, their vision 2030, you know, that they've had since um about diversifying the economy and investments and so forth. And he's willing to risk all of that for uh for hubris.
This was a resume war, nothing more than that. and Saudi could have maintained influence in Yemen in different ways, but they chose to intervene in 2015 because they saw that in particular were going to be one of the forces, if not the most dominant force in the new Yemeni political scene post Arab Spring and that was not favor favorable to Saudi Arabia. Yeah. And Dr. Dr. Schol, can I get your state
department's perspective on this for so uh I I remember covering um a lot a lot of this from different directions back in 2015 and 20 2016 2017 as so as as NBS so and here's my kind of memory of it at the time that NBS is serving as defense minister uh and he is trying to angle to become crown prince like he's trying to oust his brother and he pushes this war
where he's going, you know, it's going to give him something that, you know, he can heroically uh champion. Remember here in Washington, uh the UAE was effectively his his lobbyist like the and and Ysef Alaba, the ambassador to the UAE, was kind of taking NBS around Washington and Chapter 4: MBS and Washington's Role in the War telling everybody like this guy is actually the moderate to your to the themes that you
write. This is the moderate future of Saudi Arabia. And look, he's also tough. He's, you know, he's putting the uh putting, you know, Ansar back in their place and and he's, you know, showing that he's a decisive leader. The CIA, as I recall, uh was strongly resistant to this narrative like they they were very much in the camp. I can't remember where the State Department was. I know there's a lot of
factions in the state department, but they they very much were on this in the camp of Muhammad Nay. That was the kind of crown prince that they knew that they thought he would be a much more stable uh figure. They would say MBS is is impulsive. Um clearly that has been that has been borne out. And so he succeeds. He take he takes over the role of uh crown prince. And so
because his succession, this is what I want to get your take on. To me, because his succession was so heavily bound up in this war, it feels then combined with his personality that he's finding it almost impossible to walk walk it back like to find a a place of coexistence because right now it seems like he can either win militarily or he can coexist peacefully with a Yemen that has Entallah as
a dominant, you know, player in a in a coalition government and he seems incapable of that and but he's also incapable of winning outright militarily. Uh so is that is that right? Like is is has he just trapped himself in a in a psychological corner? Uh and and how what is what was your experience at the time? How did from inside the state department? How did people uh understand and follow the
kind of rise of MBS? Well, [clears throat] I I was not yet in the State Department at at that time, although I do very clearly remember sort of his charm tour where you had all of these figures certainly Thomas Freriedman fawning over him. You know, he traveled around and was fetted as specifically around as as you mentioned what I study this idea that I will return Saudi Arabia to moderate Islam. Um,
which was fairly amusing. But I I think a major factor that punctured that narrative was the brutal murder of Jamal Hashoi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October of 2018. And if people may recall this ended up becoming a fairly significant 15 minutesfactor in American politics because that was that that was also a midterm year. That was the year the squad came into power or was elected to Congress. Um and
and subsequently there was we also saw at that time some of the truly horrifying um level of starvation that Saudi Arabia's blockade was imposing on Yemen. I remember the New York Times did a very big expose on this with just these photos of these horribly emaciated children. And so there was very much this anti-Saudi push and that was that was politically useful for Democrats saying that Trump backed Muhammad bin Bones as
he was nicknamed that Trump was backing this horrifying intervention in Yemen. Um and then subsequently Biden also used that on the campaign trail saying that he was going to make Saudi Arabia pariah. um and did when when Biden came into power immediately lifted the FTO designation on Ansah that Trump had slapped on them at the very last moment of his administration. um and by and and has Trump in his second administration
re-imposed that that foreign terrorist organization designation um which just a quick side note on that doesn't necessarily have that significant of an impact on itself because it's not plugged in to American financial streams but does have an impact for um humanitarian organizations trying to operate certainly for um efforts even even if Saudi Arabia, for example, were to want to return to the the road map that it had agreed to back in
late 2023. Part of that was that it had agreed to pay salaries of um civil society worker or or of um government workers in under law controlled territory and now with the FTO designation that's very difficult. Um but to go back to your question about is Muhammad bin Salman sort of um incapable of achieving this? I don't think so because again he after seven years of a horrifying campaign extremely expensive also
from Saudi's perspective um at a time when Muhammad bin Salman I mean there's been a lot of um criticism of the the hu grotesque amount of waste of vision 2030 this kind of obscene projects in the desert that were in no way realistic those have gotten a lot of attention and the fact that they've now been scaled down. I think a lot of people are saying, "Well, I told you so." But
Muhammad bin Salman has also been involved. I mean, vision 2030 is more than just those big mega projects. I mean to a certain extent Muhammad bin Fman has been able to transform specifically the the role of of Saudi women because his until until this transition the Saudi state had to pay Saudi men enough money that they could provide for all of their female family members who were not permitted to work or
were not permitted to engage in public life. And this was just hugely expensive also because the Saudi men often weren't necessarily doing the real work. and then you still needed a foreigner to do the actual work. Um and so this this is this was not sustainable. And so the fact that you have seen quite significant um incentives by the Saudi government to encourage the employment of women um I think in and
in other ways as well they have been able it's it's certainly um not there yet. Obviously the Saudi economy remains heavily dependent on fossil fuel but they are making progress in trying to get there. And this is what instability whether it's the the US-led war on Iran or the the um attack well the the the ongoing war against Yemen. This threatens vision 2030. So all that to say Muhammad bin Salman recognized
that because he's tied his own legitimacy and his own crown to the success of vision 2030. And so if it fails, it is going to be I think a question of do we actually see him become king and if he becomes king, is he able to do so? To go way back to your point about Muhammad bin Naif, his um cousin who had been the crown prince. I certainly remember those that
time when there were many people in Washington who were who quite preferred him as you said they they knew him. they um felt that MBS was this sort of rash, you know, too young, too inexperienced. There was no way he was actually going to become crown prince and if you know that they surely he would be replaced. And then people may remember the the when MBS put many of his own relatives
as well as other wealthy and elite Saudis in the Ritz Carlton and and didn't let them out until they I mean basically extorted them for for money. Um and it was that action and others that NBS took that really consolidated his own control over the entirety of the Saudi state. So all that to say NBS is capable of negotiating and he has done so in the past. I think his sense at
the moment is he's he thinks that the United States and the rest of the world will intervene on his behalf because of the pressures put on the global oil economy. the global oil market as a result of Trump's and and Israel's incredibly foolish war against Iran. Um, but I I my assumption is at a certain point MBS will recognize that the best way for him to achieve vision 2030 is to achievah
and and achieve some kind of truce. Shire, I'm curious for your take on that. What what kind of truce do you think uh Ensalah is willing to accept at this point? And I saw there was it looked like there were reports of a strike on the on the palace and Aiden today. Yeah. Do you know do you know what happened there? And I think that whatever he agreed to in 2022, I
think that's off the table. I think what what he would have to offer at this point seems to be much more significant. What what is your sense of what it would take at this point? My sense is that Yemen is no longer interested in a truce. It's no longer interested in any kind of roadmap. It's interested in a full end to Saudi interference in Yemen, military interference, the blockade. Um, you know,
why should Yemen have to beg Saudi Arabia to use Yemen's oil and gas revenues to pay civil servants in the north? 80% of the population lives in the north and now taking more territory. Chapter 5: Why Ansar Allah Is Done With Truces Add to that percentage. Why should Yemen beg Saudi Arabia to um allow it to have free trade with the rest of the world without going through either UN verification systems
in Djibouti which came through as a result of UN Security Council resolution 2216 that Saudi essentially wrote and put forward. Uh and then all the humanitarian goods are inspected in Saudi Arabia. Why should Yemen have to ask Saudi Arabia, please, can you pretty please stop bombing our schools and our airports and our you know uh and can we have permission from you to operate our own airlines in our own skies. So
I think the point the ansula and Yemenes have reached is that the the the time for a negotiated uh truce is over. the time for small concessions here and there over um and Yemen has run out of patience in the four years where there was an active well a formal truce was between uh April and October of 2022 but it essentially continued beyond that beyond the former six formal 6 months of
the truce for four years until Saudi broke that in July of this year but in those four years Saudi Arabia wasn't doing nothing they removed Hadi from power essentially told him thank you for your service. Now, we're going to put a new legitimate government in Yemen, quote unquote. And [snorts] they created the presidential leadership council, which is based in Saudi Arabia. Right now, it skews heavy toward warlords who are loyal to
Saudi Arabia and who receive their funding from Saudi Arabia. But at the time, it was split between Saudi and UAE support. And you know, they've armed these people. They have fortified the troops in particular, they were fortifying his troops along the western coast. They were building airports, the UAE and Saudi Arabia and really amassing this um military presence in order to take advantage of the l of fighting for them to amass
this massive presence and then take over. They miscalculated has never been successful at anything. I don't know why they keep throwing money at him. Um and he failed and was able to take over the western coast. And so now the calculations have completely shifted and I think there is no choice for Saudi Arabia if their oil pipes are getting hit and their ships are prevented from using Babendub Strait and their airports
are getting targeted. Um vision the 2030 might just look like them not having anything other than you know going back to riding camels. And so it's a really dire situation for Saudi Arabia and this attempt to try to get the international community whether it's um you know Pakistan and Turkey with the Mecca Defense Pact to intervene on his behalf or to get troops from Syria to fight in Yemen because he's you
know creating this sectarian narrative that are targeting Mecca and Medina. um or you know calling Trump personally calling Trump and then getting um denied US involvement or even getting intelligence from Israel as he recently just did through Sentcom. He's trying all the wrong ways instead of just admitting defeat essentially. But I think for somebody like Muhammad bin Salman, it's not in his this is like we said somebody impulsive and um you
know this war has been he's operated with a lot of hubris. I can't imagine him actually doing this willingly. I think he would have to be forced either internally Saudis saying hey we got to just take this back control because this isn't he's not leading us anywhere good or externally with the United States for example saying you know what it's not just Saudi interests that are going to that are uh impacted
in Saudi Arabia it's also US interests and so let's put an end to this. So what what I don't understand, if I could just follow up with you on this, is why he won't just do that. Like buddy, like if the only thing they're asking for is you leaving Yemen, like you're not Yemen. Like leave the country. Like leave them alone. Like I I genuinely like I'm looking out at my neighbor's
house here. If I was think if I was telling my friend I have this incredible problem like my neighbor's so awful to me and he's demanding that I like stop stealing from him and stop like going into his garage and and stop like my friend would be like stop going [laughter] into his garage stay in your stay in your house and you're going to be fine like so it can't be that
simple like what why won't he just mind his own business and just go back to Saudi Arabia Chapter 6: Why Saudi Arabia Is Unwilling to Walk Away what was it all For Ryan, what was spending Jamal Kashoji? We mentioned him earlier. He mentioned before he died his by his estimate that the Saudis were spending $200 million a day in Yemen. What was it all for? How can he justify this to his
country, to his people? How does he justify 11? It's sunk cost fallacy. It's like how does he save face at this point when there was no reason for him to be in Yemen in the first place? his father who's scenile I think but his you know uh the kings before him knew not to get involved militarily in Saudi in Yemen. Saudi Arabia is a flat desert. Yemen is like Afghanistan, right? And
so you have some flat desert areas but most of the concentration of people are in those highlands of Yemen, right? And so you don't just for the geography alone you don't get involved. Add to that when the Turks were in Yemen for on and off for 500 years and there were rebellions for 500 years by the Yemenes because never never did they say you know what Turkey we Totan Empire we accept
you that was never an option for Yemenes or when the British were in Yemen in South Yemen for 128 years there were uprisings you know just yesterday was the 63rd anniversary of uh the October 14th revolution where the British were kicked out of South Yemen after years of armed resistance. And so you have a country in Yemen that is going to resist foreigners no matter what. And yet you decided that you
were going to intervene in their politics and arm all of these different factions and think it was going to end well for you. You know, I remember I was in a meeting with Tim Lender King who was the um um Biden's envoy to Yeah. in 2021. [clears throat] He came to Michigan. He wanted to meet a group of Yemenes. He was not expecting I was going to be in that group, but
um he he was presenting himself like, you know, oh, the US is just a mediator. And I said, no, you're a belligerent, [laughter] like you should not be supporting the Saudis because this is just going to end as it just did in Afghanistan. This was right after the Afghanistan uh debacle. And so I told him, I said, "You're going to what? wait for 20 years, arm, you know, this so-called government for
20 years only for the to come take over just as the Taliban came over and took over. And he's like, well, what would we have them do? Just have Yemenes make their own decisions? And I was like, actually, yeah, actually, yes, that's exactly what you do. That is exactly what you do. You leave Yemenes to make up their own minds and make their own decisions. And so, this is the kind of
hubris we're talking about. These people are not used to seeing Yemenes as capable. Even like let's look at the narratives around, you know, Ansar or the Houthi as they call them, right? Like they just woke up one day and they're striking Saudi Arabia. Like there's no reason that there's no uh, you know, resistance movement that they don't represent the will of the Yemeni people. And so Yemenes have just been presented as
this irrational group of people who are making these decisions that are you know just you know the terror designation for example right like people don't have a understanding of Yemen history and politics they don't have an understanding of the Yemeni people and who we are as a people uh and so they make these decisions that they think are going to benefit them in the short term but they're not making these they
don't understand the long-term calculus of these decisions. Yeah. And Dr. Interesting. You mentioned uh the vision 2030. Can you explain for people like what that is and also this like Davos in the desert that he's been celebrating and what what effect is all of this having on because you know this vision 2030 is getting closer. It's you know it's almost 2027. [laughter] This is not ideal I wouldn't think. [snorts] Yes. Um,
so Vision 2030, um, you know, was, I believe, first announced in in 2015 when they hit a 15-year runway. And that that was the same year that you had a significant fall in oil prices. And so, on the one hand, Saudi Arabia was trying to fully transform its economy and yet suddenly did not have the resources it might have expected to do so. Um, by the time uh MBS was embarking on
his charm tour, Chapter 7: What the War Means for Vision 2030 which was um kind of early uh 2018, I think was when he came and sort of toward the United States and was fedded by um all all the the the wealthy bigwigs. Um by that point, it was a little bit more clear what exactly vision 2030 was going to be. But again, what has tended to get the most attention have
been the huge mega projects. Things like the line, which was supposed to be a a city in a line sort of stretching across the desert. Um it just sort of mindboggling, right? They never really they couldn't sort the traffic out and gave up on that. Yeah. Well, and and so like that that has understandably gotten a lot of attention and it especially I think gotten attention because many of those mega projects
have have either utterly failed or just been completely walked back and Saudi Arabia has had to spend billions of dollars simply cancelling contracts. But at the same time there have been other aspects of vision 2030 which have been for example this effort to employ women which I for for the sake of Saudi female friends I know they are very grateful for for an opportunity and Saudi male friends as well and I
I think a crucial part of the the reason we haven't seen more resistance to this effort to sort of transform specifically gender dynamics inside Saudi Arabia has to do with the King Abdullah scholarship program where you had the the previous king spent a massive amount of money to send hundreds of thousands of Saudi students, which were mostly sort of the the millennial generation, abroad, primarily to English-speaking context, so the UK, the
US, Australia, Canada, and and part of why they did that was there they were building Saudi universities, but they weren't yet um I guess quite quite where they wanted them to be. And they wanted this generation of of upcoming Saudis of whom you know Muhammad bin Salman is a member of that generation although he did not uh participate in this program. Um I think this is why you've seen less resistance to
a really fundamental societal transition inside Saudi Arabia. Um that which is part of vision 2030 because you have this generation of Saudis that say yeah we just want a normal country. We want to be able to interact men and women with each other to not have it be this this, you know, to be separated by religious police, you know, like the the level of oppression that was required to sort of maintain
this draconian degree of of of the Wahhabi, the state sponsored form of Islam. Again, I think once they started to release that a little bit, there were some expectations because historically in Saudi Arabia when you had um for example, when they introduced education for girls or television, this this produced huge opposition um or things like when the the um the seizure of the Grand Mosque in Mecca in 1979, you know, this
was also this um a group of Saudis who felt that Saudi society was transforming too quickly and they wanted to sort of reestablish this very deeply conservative interpretation of Islam. Um, and you just didn't have that this time. And I think I think and the reason I'm saying all this is partly to say that I do think there there's a there's a population inside Saudi Arabia that although they can't necessarily say
so publicly because they would be locked up along with everyone else who has tried to speak out publicly to criticize the the government. um who who are not interested in in trying to fight wars in Yemen or um continue to to sort of interfere in Yemeni affairs. And so although right now, you know, I personally and I imagine uh Dr. Shirin as well are dealing with a lot of Saudi bots or
angry uh Saudis on social media. Um they have massive bot farms to kind of promote their agenda. Um but but to the extent that you have just ordinary Saudis that a don't want all this money wasted on these stupid projects they they need you know they recognize that we Saudi society need this money. There's still poverty in Saudi Arabia like it's such a wealthy country and yet it doesn't necessar it doesn't
provide for for its people the way that that wealth ostensively would allow it to do. Um, and furthermore, this this generation that that is is that wants to see sort of the success of aspects of vision 2030 of sort of transforming Saudi society. Um, but that's not interested in continuing to wage a war on Yemen um or really anyone else. So, uh, Dr. I wanted to ask about what a let's say
Saudi Arabia does either implode uh or decide that it's going to withdraw and uh and stop backing militant forces inside uh Yemen what things might look like in after after that when it comes to governing Yemen. And I and I wanted to pick up on what you were talking about earlier with the history history of Yemen. you know, in South Yemen, of course, after independence in the 1960s, uh, became, you know,
an independent Marxist state, had some of the most progressive laws when it came to women's rights and so forth. And and the southern movement, Iraq, still draws on some of that history, but I'm curious how much of an ideological heir it is to that socialist project or if it if we're so far removed from that that it's something else completely entirely. and Chapter 8: Ansar Allah, the South and Yemen's Ideological Divide
Ansar meanwhile comes from a very different tradition. Um I've heard you describing them as kind of fighting for the soul of Islam. Could you walk us through like these different ideological traditions, what they represent and how how they might come together in a kind of governing coalition in when there is a an independent and sovereign Yemen. Assuming that we get to that. Yeah. I think we also have to go back to
Wahhabi um influence in Yemen um in 37 minutesorder to understand how far removed current separatist movements are for example from the socialist Marxist government that was you know under which where where I was born when I was born in Aden it was a Marxist London state. Um so Saudi began influencing you know different poorer countries with their especially with their Wahhabi ideology in the 70s and the 80s and then intensified in
the '90s. So Yemen is religiously is a center for Zadi Islam which is a branch of Shia Islam that is different from uh the 12 Islam that the Iranians practice for example or Iraqis or Lebanese practice. So it's pretty unique. I think Yemen is where most if not all Zadis reside. Um but they also had peaceful coexistence with Shafi Muslims and uh Shafi Sunni Muslims and you also have the influence of
Sufi Islam within the Shafi movements in Yemen. So this is a country with you know coexistence, religious coexistence, tolerance beyond tolerance really like mutual respect and understanding. We don't have Sunni and Shia neighborhoods. We don't have you know intermarriage is not an issue for example. Um and when you had Wahhabi Islam come into Yemen through not just you know our education. I I lived through the time in the '9s where our
textbooks were all of a sudden our Islamic textbooks were printed in in Saudi Arabia um as a way to try to influence the next generation of people into Wahhabi Islam. But they were also building and pouring a lot of money into Yemen and building these uh Salafi you know schools Wahhabi schools in centers like Z like Sada where Ansarah movement originated in you know the border in northern Yemen that borders Saudi
Arabia and where the center of Zadi Islam was in Yemen and they were building these institutions in SA and Sada and all sorts of uh places across the north and south and trying to influence Yemen Islam toward fundamentalist Islam. And that is the origin story of Ansadah. They were preaching against this encroachment. They were fighting for the soul of Islam in Yemen in particular because they didn't want to be influenced. They
didn't want to have to entire tribes were you know converting for example from Zadi Islam to Wahhabi or Salafi. So this was huge in Yemen in the 1990s and they were speaking out against it. Why should Saudi Arabia come and impose their relatively new and extremely dangerous ideology? It's, you know, Wahhabi Islam cannot coexist with anybody else. They only spread in Saudi Arabia through violent means through massacring Shia in Iraq, for
example, in different places. And so, um, this is not an ideology that you can coexist with. So that influence has had huge impact on South Yemen after independence from the British and after the fall of Marxism. Um so Yemen reunited with South Yemen reunited with North Yemen in 1990 because the USSR was collapsing and they were going to lose its only source and financial backing. Um, and so they kind of, in
my view, rushed into unity, even though unity is something that every Yemen for generations had wanted. But within four years, southern Yemen felt like they weren't getting they weren't getting a good deal out of unity. And the cultures were so different and the influence was different. And because they only made up 20% of the population, they were surprised, I think, to see that they also only made up 18% of parliament in
the first elections that happened. I don't think, you know, those are my people. We shouldn't have been surprised. We were only 20% of the population, right? But for a proud people, you're like, "Wait a minute. How are we one out of five? We're how are we one out of five? We are the historic." Yeah. Yeah. Uh and so that created a lot of resentment with northern Yemenes and they announced the success
secession from the north and Ali Abdulah had the time the president of North Yemen of Yemen uh bombed bombed South Yemen back into unity and so most people in the south feel like they were bombed into unity. They were forced back into unity. So it doesn't feel like an organic choice, like a choice they made. They feel like the four years where they were in unity with northern Yemen, they didn't get
much out of it. And the years that followed, you know, you had um a collapse of many of the institutions that my parents generation, for example, grew up with, like you mentioned, you know, uh freedoms and certain rights and law and order, I think, to to a large degree, right? and so uh relative safety but there was also a lot of infighting with the Marxists and there was the socialist movement was
not a stabilizing force in South Yemen 1986 for example the civil war 13-day war that killed 10,000 people in Aden alone right bodies piled up on the streets and so it's not like that was an ideal movement either or it didn't have a chance to mature into what it could have been um so I think the movement right now there is an active secessionist movement uh they loosely draw on that nationalist
Arab, you know, kind of secessionist spirit, but by no means they are are they the inheritors of the um you know, the the socialist founders or even their revolutionaries because they would have been anti-imperialists had they actually been the true inheritors of those revolutionaries who fought the British. They would not have accepted UAE money. They would not have accepted Saudi money. They would not have accepted US interfering in Yemen system. They
would not have worked with Ala. They would not have done any of the things that they have done in the last 11 years. So if they do gain independence, at what cost? Onsar Allah has been sending signals as far as I can tell that that they're not interested in moving on Aden. Uh but I'm curious like how like how does that how does this end? Do in a federated situation, two different
countries like what is um what what is your sense of of how Ansar would like it to unfold and or and how Yemen Yemenes in in southern Yemen forget the UAE and others who have obviously their own designs but you know how do they see it reaching some type of equilibrium I think without funding from the outside sources people's calculations will change and that is what I think we'll see in TA
as well. Without funding from Saudi forces, I wonder how many people are actually willing to fight and so they may just accept the status quo and to see what happens. Um I think in the Chapter 9: How the War Could End in Yemen's South south it's a bit of a different situation because there is a lot of resentment for northerners at large, not just on northerners at large. We unfortunately grew up
post 1994 with a lot of resentment, you know, against northern Yemenes. And I include myself there because I live through this. And so, um, that's not going to be you can't win them by force. I think if there is some kind of recognition of an autonomous region that may work out for a while at least until people can see that we are all Yemen and hopefully if things go well under rule
in a future Yemen with a coalition government of course that includes other Yemenes because there's no way that they would be able to do it alone. There are too many factions in Yemen. um maybe people will resign to the fact that maybe this is a better choice or a better alternative, but you know, right now the alternatives aren't great. You have the the leader of the STC who essentially was kicked out
of the Saudi PLC uh in January and called the traitor and now he reemerged after 9 months just the other day to announce mobilization against Assad, to announce, you know, his commitment to a secessionist state and to ask for Saudi recognition of a secessionist state. They're not going to give him recognition, you know, like they're backing forces that are trying to take back territories from Ansah, they're not going to accept uh
a bifurcated country. Ansad might, I think, for a time or I think they might under the understanding that maybe there's a future goal for unity is my sense, but I don't think the Saudis are willing to to do that. And Dr. Shelene, we haven't talked about Iran yet. I' I've been kind of stunned whenever I turn on cable news and watch coverage of this conflict uh to continue to see Ansarah well
they call usually called the Houthis on CNN or whatever else described as an Iranian proxy and and it surprises me because you would think that after this much time having passed and them not acting in that way, 46 minutesyou know, the war between the US and Israel and Iran uh unfolded without them getting involved. Um last year they cut a bilateral ceasefire agreement with uh the United States. When they when they
launched their counter offensive, this time it was because Saudi attacked their Chapter 10: The "Iranian Proxy" Myth airport. like the you would think that after so many examples of them acting autonomously, you would say, "Oh, this is an autonomous force that I need to analyze as as its own independent actor that has its alliances and has its like shared interests but has its own motivations as well." Uh maybe they'll catch up
to that eventually one day. But I am curious how you think the the Iran war fits into this. that there seems to be a high likelihood that, you know, conflict breaks out again in a significant way either before the election or or or after it. And I wonder how you think that um that plays into the the conflict that's still unfolding between Ansarah and Saudi Arabia. I I [clears throat] certainly agree
with you that this tendency to refer to Ansadah as merely a proxy of Iran or also as a terrorist organization um is just I mean just not well informed and not that analytically useful if you're trying to understand them and and their their actions. I think, you know, most recently I would say that we saw um an instance where Iran and the the the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council were all
supposed to meet in Salala, the a city in southern Oman to discuss the possibility of a in the unlikely event that Trump manages to reach some kind of agreement to end the war, then that this was going to be ready the the GCC states and Iran would have worked out kind of how are we going to manage and administer the straight of form moves perhaps with fees but but recognizing that these
states also have an interest. Um and I I essentially Iran is wants that Iran wants to show look we have managed to figure out with uh the the other countries that that manage this territory or that they're adjacent to this waterway. Um and well this the Saudis called it off. Um this was just following um an an attack on the East West pipeline which was not carried out by an Allah. It
was carried out by um an Iraqi militia. Um but it was in the broader context following Ansarah's announcement that they were going to impose this blockade in exchange for the Saudi blockade on their territory. They were no longer going to allow Saudi oil exports through the Babal Menddev. Um and so that was an instance where Iran really didn't want what either Ansarah or these Iraqi militias to to derail this this meeting
that was supposed to happen. And it happened anyway, you know, because Ansalah specifically is pursuing their own objective and they have been long before the February 28th war, you know, Trump kicked that off with Israel. Um, and and you know, to the extent that like why do we keep hearing this narrative? To some extent it may be laziness. To some extent people may be drawing on the framework they they think they
understand around husbah and the relationship there. But that is also an instance where you had emerged in response to Israel's occupation of Lebanon and then and then has received support from Iran. Um but you know this it's it is somewhat frustrating because you don't then have um the the Saudibacked government being referred to as a Saudi proxy or the ST the Southern Transitional Council being referred to as as an Emirati proxy.
although by that same line and and again they they are pursuing their own agendas but I think especially the the PLC really and and I I I really um appreciate Dr. Admir's um can parallel to Afghanistan where you had the USbacked government that collapsed in the absence of US support. And so I I anticipate something similar um in in the event that if Saudi were to withdraw its support for the the
the presidential leadership council, we would similarly they have to evacuate their hotel rooms. Yes. Well, and they're already in Riyad, so they'd be fine. But but the you know the the bureaucracy underneath them. Yeah. Um any final thoughts that that that people who are following this you kind of might might misunderstand? Dr. Aladmia um anything you'd want to um kind of any any kind of misunderstandings out there that are worth correcting
before we before we wrap? Yeah, I think going back to why they keep linking them to Iran, it's just also you're talking to an American audience. You hear Iran, you think enemy, and so it's um you know, it's a euphemism from enemy for enemy. Saudi also has the same relationship with Iran. So they can just say we're fighting Iranians in Yemen and the population is like, "Oh yeah, that makes sense. We
can't have the Iranian, you know, influence and blah blah blah." And so it's a very easy quick heristic for them to just be able to sell whatever happens in Yemen. I remember when you know Yemen was under almost full blockade by Saudi Arabia and children are starving. People would say yeah but you know those Houthies really should not be doing this this and that. And I'm like they're not starving the Houthies.
They're not starving. They're starving the entire Yemeni population, right? And so it's easy to ignore the humanity of Yemenes when you just say well Iran backed. Um, and so I think people really need to go past that because it just shows again either willful ignorance of Yemen or just lazy journalism or these, you know, agendas to minimize indigenous movements. Why aren't they called, as an said, you know, asked, why aren't they
called the Saudi proxies when they are based in Saudi Arabia? Imagine if LA were based in Iran. What would they say? Right. And so, uh, and also going back to Yeah. No, I was just saying if they really want to they need to update their talking points. If they really want to tank on's approval rating here in the United States, they should call them Israeli backed. But I'm not giving that would
that would torch. But anyway, you were saying I was also saying like at the very inception of uh the war before Saudi intervened when when marched over from Sada and took over the capital in September of 2014, Iranians very publicly said, "We advise you not to do that." and very publicly responded, "It's none of your business." And so they are not, you know, they're allies, but they have always had their own
agenda in Yemen. Uh Iran doesn't get to dictate, but Iran has of course supported them over the years. Yeah. Um just for just for fun, let me put up this article I wrote uh in uh back in what is this 20 2015. I was in a um an off thereord meeting. I can talk about it now because they put it on the record uh with Barack Obama and he told us he's
like, "Yeah, we had inter we had intelligence that Iran was urging on not to go in to sana. Don't do it. Don't do it." So like we knew they eventually confirmed that to me. Um I said afterwards, you know, like this is news. like we should we should write this. Um and so actually this is with uh Akbar. Um I wrote this with Ali Watkins 54 minutesand uh Akbar Akmed who just
published his book on the on the State Department. But yeah, the US had uh basically intercepts so they they could hear the Iranians telling them don't don't do this, don't do. So our national security establishment has long been quite aware um that enta acts indep independently that they work with Iran but they they call they call their own shots and we've known that for more than 10 years um since the very
beginning since the protest that turned into a a takeover that precipitated this. Um but uh any any final thoughts on that or if if not I'll I'll let you guys go because you've been very generous with your time. I I I just wanted to add um that in some ways I've been a little surprised that Trump did not yet give in to NBS's request to directly start bombing. And my interpretation of
that is it may be that the US well the Trump 55 minutesadministration is closer to the UAE and so that they are kind of letting the Saudis deal with the consequences of when when the Saudis kicked the UAE out uh earlier and in January of this year following the the sudden takeover of of territory by the southern secessionist forces. Um, and so I do anticipate that once Trump feels he's made MBS
squirm a bit, he probably will get involved directly. Um, which I think would very much be a mistake. Um obviously uh and Chapter 11: Will Trump Join the War? and my hope is that perhaps he might also face some constraints as a result of his this incredibly foolish war and the overextension of the US military as a result where our navy is escorting ships out of a train of war moves one
by one and people ask why haven't gas prices come down. It's like oh well maybe because all of the gas is going to the navy ships. Yeah, Shireina. Shireen, I'm curious for your your take on that final point because my take too is that he certainly won't do it before the midterms because he doesn't want them blocking cargo traffic going through the Red Sea which would lead to immediate price increases on
everything. Um, and also, you know, he tried that already and he exactly. And so, let's remember what happened in 20 24 and 2025 before the active ceasefire. By the way, he treated as a state essentially by negotiating the ceasefire with them, right? Um, they made it very difficult for US carriers. I think I heard something that this is the first time since World War II that people were firing at US carriers
and so and Sah did that and they were causing a lot of material damage um you know using fishing boats and missiles that are worth thousands of dollars and creating multi-million dollar losses for US carriers. And so you had the carriers going up and down the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and losing, you know, um, F-35s, I think, or whatever they were, you know, planes were falling off the board
and the sailors were confused and the missiles were coming and there these reports that there's a Pentagon report that came out in the aftermath of this that saying like if you couldn't handle with their very primitive technology, how are you going to face anything in the South China Sea, right? And so it was incredibly embarrassing for the United States to be involved and to be um kicked around by with their limited
uh technological capabilities. Um and from my understanding Trump is the one who went to Arman and said, "Hey, can you talk to these guys? Let's let's put an end to this." And so um I think he remembers very well what happened. He may still foolishly get involved because we have leaders unfortunately who are making these decisions uh foolishly like mentioned earlier but um he may still get involved but I think he
needs to remember what happened the last time he got involved. Yeah. Shireen Aladini uh Anel Shelene thank you so much to both of you for joining me. Really appreciate it. Thank you so much for inviting us. Got it. All right that'll do it for us today. Thanks so much for watching and we'll see you next time. Sync to video time
-
admin
- Site Admin
- Posts: 41616
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:21 am
Re: PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE
https://x.com/FmrRepMTG/status/2109356875904946248
Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene
@FmrRepMTG
Oct 11
Oh he sent me an email, I think I’ll respond.
So yes, actually you did do something wrong President Trump, let’s first start with your broken campaign promises.
You protected your pedophile rapists friends instead of women who were raped when they were just teenage girls and you STILL REFUSE to release the Epstein files.
You started an unprovoked war with Iran that the vast majority of Americans do NOT support. You killed hundreds of children at a school in Iran and innocent people and are responsible for 21 U.S. service members deaths and 865 wounded. Your stupid war that you claim you have won like 50 times has destroyed our bases in the Middle East and hundreds of billions of dollars worth of military equipment and weapons, while depleting our weapons and ammunitions.
You are supporting, funding, and aiding genocide in Gaza that has resulted in approximately 22,000 children murdered, thousands of children with amputations, and over 70,000 orphans. And your so called Board of “Peace” has done nothing to stop war and is planning to oversee the very profitable reconstruction and take over of Gaza. One can only guess who all will get those blood money contracts, the Epstein class and associates.
And let’s talk about the basics that every single US president is supposed to guarantee to its citizens. Affordable cost of living and affordable fuel in which you have 100% failed to deliver and actually driven inflation and irresponsibly driven the cost of gasoline and diesel to record high levels.
So did you do something wrong?
Yes in summary, YOU are the snake that you warned us all about in the poem you read over and over.
You never cared about putting America first or making America great again.
You are the deep state, the Epstein class, and America last.
And my mistake was supporting you in the first place.
*************
Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene
@FmrRepMTG
Oct 14
Late stage MAGA is so disgusting and unrecognizable to me, and I find this shocking as one who attended more Trump rallies than I can count.
A woman with a “Release The Epstein Files” shirt stands at a Trump rally shouting at Trump to release the Epstein files and gets physically beaten by the MAGA men around her, who probably call themselves Christians.
Then our obese President makes fun of her calling her “fat” and “him” claiming she’s a paid protestor.
She got thrown out and the men who attacked her got to stay.
MAGA rallies used to be filled with people who agreed with releasing the Epstein files, defended women, and would step in if a woman was attacked.
Now the dying remnant of MAGA is made up of people who emulate their cult leader.
Attacking women, making fun of their looks, and turning on the victims of the elites.
It’s a cult, an ugly grotesque cult that does not display Christian values because the cult leader himself is not a Christian even though the vast majority who attend his rallies would identify as Christian.
Know them by their fruit.
The fruit is rotten.
Because the cult leader himself is a wolf in sheep’s clothing who has led the flock astray.