PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN THE

[admin]

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrum ... 6604364910
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
3h
The White House considers anyone that uses the term, “Artificial Intelligence,” as opposed to the highly accepted new and more accurate term, “Super Intelligence,” THE ENEMY! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Oct 08, 2026, 10:14 AM

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https://x.com/atrupar/status/2107889732919107785

Aaron Rupar
@atrupar

Oct 7
Trump: "I could've done very bad things to Hillary Clinton. I could've done very very bad things to Joe Biden. I could've done very bad things to Barack Hussein Obama ... I can do whatever I want, if I want."

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https://x.com/atrupar/status/2108256737476084076
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
this shit is beyond parody, man. It truly is the make a wish presidency. now Trump is getting an award!
0:13 / 0:21
12:02 PM · Oct 8, 2026
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2108256737 ... 76/video/1
[Award Giver] Mr. President, we have been able to find the medal from your uncle, and we here want to present it to you in a beautiful frame.

***

https://x.com/ERICLENT1367204
ERIC LENT
@ERICLENT1367204
“Here’s the medal your uncle received Mr. Trump. You can add it to your collect of other medals you didn’t actually win like the Nobel prize, all those golf championships you won at your courses while no one was looking, and the Michigan Man of the year award you made up.”
1:03 PM · Oct 8, 2026

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https://x.com/HormuzLetter/status/2108271334136410456

The Hormuz Letter
@HormuzLetter
Trump, for a third time, suggests Iran should take out US cities, saying "I say it all the time, let's see what would happen if Iran ever did anything to Los Angeles or San Diego. I'm talking about through missiles. You want to see problems, let them hit Los Angeles or San Diego."

1:00 PM · Oct 8, 2026

https://x.com/HormuzLetter/status/21082 ... 56/video/1
[Trump] I say it all the time, let's see what would happen if they ever did something like to Los Angeles or San Diego. Those seem to be the the most prominent because of location. I'm talking about through missiles. That would be terrible if a thing like that happened. And you want to see problems, let them hit Los Angeles, or let them hit a place like San Diego; let them hit one of our major cities -- that's called a problem.

1:00 PM · Oct 8, 2026

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Trump Orders All-Out War, US & Israel STRIKE Iran Before Midterms | KJ Noh
Danny Haiphong
Streamed live 22 hours ago #iranwar #trump #china

Trump is diving fully back into war mode with Iran as US & Israeli forces prepare for a massive offensive before the elections in both states. KJ Noh analyzes the geopolitical and global significance of the escalation and what the mainstream reports are leaving out.



Transcript

Chapter 1: Tensions with Iran Welcome back to the show everyone. As you can see I am joined by KJ no geopol commentator analyst and allaround good guy to talk about the latest developments. So we begin. It's been KJ a a whirlwind whiplash last I should say just last or so. Uh we heard that first Trump was considering a plan to strike Iran before the midterm elections. Uh

this was reported late last evening by uh everybody including the Atlantic and the New York Times. But then just a few hours ago, Donald Trump as oil went to $105 a barrel and the markets started to spasm. Uh Donald Trump has says we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd. But channel 14 in Israel is saying

that they are preparing for another confrontation with Iran as the Pentagon and Washington had reportedly issued military directives for these preparations for largecale operations against Iran. This is according to IDF chief Iel Zamir to both channel 12 and Israeli channel 14. So KJ uh where are we right now in this war? We have oil prices spiking. The straight of horm still very much uh in a huge debate about who controls it,

who doesn't, Iran or the United States. And of course, the Yemen front is on fire. And all of this is uh the backdrop for US hijgemony and and the myriad of crises it faces. So to you, what do you make of these contradictions? Absolutely. almost whiplash when it comes to how frequently we're hearing them. Well, I think it's deliberate. I think it's a deliberate form of psychological warfare. I don't believe that

the intent Chapter 2: Psychological warfare to attack is serious because frankly you would need at least a year of buildup, vast logistical preparation, and much much larger deployment of troops. you're not going to get very far with a few thousand 10,000 uh troops and uh perhaps you know an aircraft carrier too which doesn't look like it's even in theater yet. So I believe that this is largely theater but remember war is

largely theater. There's a large dimension of war which is theater where we even talk about the term the theater of war. So, I think that this is a way of wearing down uh Iran, trying to see if they can demoralize it a little bit like what they always do with North Korea twice a year and now almost constantly with war games. constantly giving the pressure, the fullcourt press, making them think that

at any moment they're about to be attacked and then forcing their economy and their uh government and everybody's nervous system to go into overdrive and to see if they can exhaust them that way. Uh I think that once again if we come back to the basics you and I have discussed this before they're fundamental asymmetries that make it almost impossible for the US to prevail against Iran. The first one is resolve

right I mean Iran has a much greater resolve to fight. The second one is geography. Uh I have referred to this as the Jackie Chan strategy. Jackie Chan beats his opponents not because he's a better fighter per se, but because he knows how to use the environment to his advantage. And we have said over and over again, the environment is 99% in favor of Iran. Those mountains create a fractal labyrinth of

uh of advantage that the US simply cannot overcome. And the strait of Hormuz itself is an amphitheater which is controlled by uh Iran. Uh they have the bleachers and the skybox. The US only has you know the flat aluvial plane and the waterway itself which actually has to do a hairpin turn around which essentially makes it a killbox for the United States. So resolve geography uh strategy itself. Uh certainly Iran has

shown itself to have superior strategy. The US is out of options with bombs and blockades. A blockade is is partial. The bombs have been shown not to work. We see diminishing sorties all the time. I mean really a tiny fraction of the sorty rate that the US is usually accustomed to. It's running out of missiles both interceptors and offensive missiles. And of course, boots on the ground would be you know catastrophic

really uh uh you know attempt at uh a suicide run. And then we know the economics do not favor the United States. Once again uh the US uses expensive interceptors against Iran's very very cheap uh munitions. These are you know an symmetry of 100 to one even a th00and to one. and the fundamental asymmetry between a financialized economy and a industrial economy and the different learning curves in battle show that Iran

has the definitive advantage and I think primarily what we're seeing here is psychological warfare to see if they can wear Iran out and down set its nervous system into overdrive and see if you can create a collapse in that fashion. Yeah. Well, that as you as you say, KJ, that that seems to suggest that there's a lot of time required for for such a 6 minutesthing because Iran is nowhere near that

point or at least that's how it seems in uh front of us what we can glean from the realities on the ground. You mentioned that it would take a massive Chapter 3: Structural limitations buildup uh that might take years. One of the interesting things that has not been talked about a lot is how the USS George HW Bush is now in Thailand. This is after the USS Lincoln was in Thailand, these

aircraft carriers. And the USS Theore Roosevelt still needs probably a couple weeks if not more to get to the region. And that doesn't mean that it's ready to just go. Uh if there's any preparations to use it for some kind of attack, might take some time. Uh that means the October 27th elections in Israel and the November 3rd elections in the midterms are they're those are coming pretty hot. Uh what do

you make of this? The USS George Washington is all by itself on that blockade line uh with the attended destroyers, but uh what do you make of this? It's a we have Trump talking allout war on the one hand and then as you said a psychological operation to probably manipulate the markets to pull back from it but there's obviously pretty intense conversations about military options here. Uh Camp David meeting included everybody.

Uh it included the entire brass from the CIA and the Pentagon and more. Your thoughts on this? Well um you know again I don't have the insider track. Certainly there are all kinds of plans and minations going on but we have to look back uh at the structural constraints here. The US is not geared up for a massive invasion. Uh it doesn't have the forward posturing. All the bases have been knocked

out of commission. Currently it's doing replenishment from Diego Garcia. uh it was bombing from Fairfield in the UK and now it seems to have been pulling its bombers out of the UK because it feels they're vulnerable. So from where is it going to project power and what kind of power is it going to project? As I said, if it's not a plan to go immediately nuclear, then it doesn't make sense from

a conventional standpoint. Yes, we have aircraft carriers. Some of them are in commission, out of commission. Most of them are vastly overstretched. Clearly, they're rusting from the inside out. They're probably doing, you know, uh, significant damage, you know, in Thailand. You know, they're invading many they're invading the cloak of many young Chinese, uh, Taiwan uh, Thai Thai women. But I I don't think that they can have the same impact uh, as

far as real uh, you know, combat is concerned. So I think there's some of this is clearly planning is going on. These may be contingency plans. They may be actual plans. But regardless the structural constraints don't indicate that the actual boots on the ground or massive incursion is possible. It would take at least 11 months to build up enough force to be able to project. And as we know the bases and

the US uh capacity in the Gulf has been severely diminished. So one way of interpreting it is you know Trump when he goes into negotiations he's been known to do this in real estate is that he sends in a lot of you know excavators and movers and have has them do a lot of work and then points to his counterparty. Look at all this work we're doing. There's a lot of you

know real estate construction going on. Is this the same type of ruse? Very possibly. But from a purely military standpoint, you know, even from a lay layman standpoint, it does not make sense. There is not enough force. There is not enough projection power uh to be able to to be able to effectively uh engage in a major military operation. Well, it's interesting, KJ, because uh Barack Ravid, who writes for Axios, who

is essentially the mouthpiece of Chapter 4: Credibility and strategy Washington essentially for this uh unfortunately very now prominent uh uh piece of media that often is breaking uh so-called news from Washington itself. Uh oftentimes accused of manipulating the markets. But somebody wondered if he was hacked today because after he reported on the back and forth, the bait and switch of of Donald Trump and his administration saying they were going to attack

uh maybe they won't attack until the midterms until after the midterms or they were going to attack before the midterms. He cited both examples of June 2025 and February 27th where uh Trump had not only said that he didn't make a he hadn't made a decision about striking, he also said uh he would decide within two weeks. There were also instances where Donald Trump said he was in great talks with Iran.

This was June 2025 uh right before in the days before Israel with the US's help began striking Iran in the 12-day war. So uh there's a real cause I think to be very suspicious of anything that comes out of the Trump administration's mouth. Uh what what do you what do you make of this? The the lying the back and forth is so obvious now. I I'm wondering how you think that this

impacts not only this war but really the geopolitical landscape when it's just so apparent that nothing that comes out of the administration's mouth can be trusted. Well, it creates a massive um deficit of trust. Nothing can be done. Nothing can be relied on purely from an economic standpoint. Nobody knows whether they're coming or going. Nobody can make predictions. Nobody can invest. Uh certainly from a strategic and a geostrategic viewpoint, nobody knows

where to place their chips. Nobody knows which side to all. Nobody knows what's what's happening. This is I believe this is part of the strategy. This jackalinhide quality is part of the strategy. It's this borderline behavior which people have referred to as kind of disrupted narcissism. But I think that you know this coming and going this unpredictability uh this madman uh schizophrenia uh may be part of the strategy but the thing

is we shouldn't you know be taken in by it. There are structural constraints there are realities uh and we should not be pulled along with every single uh vacasillation and imagination and uh and whim. uh we understand what the reality is. The reality is the United States is losing the war. There is no way for it to recover control of the Strait of Hormuz. Uh the mercenaries in Yemen will not be

able to win back the capital. They will not be able to hold any of the territory that they've taken even along the coast. uh the Yemenes like the Iranians, they have the advantage of resolve, of geography, of strategy, of determination. So these things are fundamental facts that are changed and of course the US could escalate by bombing uh Iran's infrastructure again. But what it doesn't seem to understand is that Iran is

perfectly capable of wiping out all the infrastructure in the Gulf States, essentially making them deserts, uninhabitable. Uh, and as Robert Work has said, you know, the strategy against Iran is air sea battle. This is the plan of war that they actually gamed out against China, but it's being tested against Iran. The US has lost air se battle. air sea battle in its simplest sense, Robert Work referred it to it as a

guided missile salvo competition. A guided missile salvo competition. The US has already lost that competition. It's not going to go back in there, try the same thing and win. It's not going to work. Uh if US starts attacking Saudi Arabia's uh Iran's infrastructure, Saudi Arabia and all the Gulf States infrastructure is toast. And up to this current moment, you know, the straight of Hormuz has been like the carroted artery. But there's

nothing to say that Iran cannot attack the heart. it uh has been choking off you know the the the the life stream the energy stream of energy but it can also knock out the pumping stations and the wells and uh uh all the uh all the infrastructure and that will really really transform uh the global economy will go into an immediate cardiac arrest. Yeah. And one report that I haven't uh been

able to talk about yet, but I think is important is uh there was a Chapter 5: Military equipment losses congressional report, research service report that said that the United States military has lost 81 planes, drones, and helicopters in this war alone. Uh so the Iran also has the ability whatever's left of these bases whatever's there and we know that Jordan uh in recent months has been the site where a lot of

US uh uh hardware is being stationed but nevertheless there are there's obviously a capacity of Iran to take out what are very valuable pieces of equipment that are also limited uh in in their scope. So, here's the list of all of the F-15s, the F-35s, the A10 Warhog, all of these uh pieces of equipment, which are massively expensive, but also they make up what you often talk about, KJ, which is uh

in this uh uh air sea battle, they're a huge part of what the United States does and what we've seen uh in this war, but also what we'll likely see in future wars by the United States that they can't afford to they're very scared of lo of losing an aircraft carrier whether it's just taken out of service but even these uh you know fighter jets and these various tankers and all of

this these are extremely valuable not only because they cost money to make and we have a military-industrial complex but also it looks very bad it looks very bad for the United States to lose massive numbers of aircraft and uh what's your thoughts on this and also we can also bring it out to the larger picture too with uh just the shape of the geopolitical landscape and how the west Asia is really

changing it uh for the United States it seems like for the worse for US interests at least US hegemonic interests. Yeah, I think uh US hgemonic interests are severely diminished in West Asia and as they diminish in West Asia, they'll diminish around the rest of the world unless the US is able to pull a hat-tick either with nukes or with some kind of massive propaganda campaign. Um the thing to note here

is that the US is losing these aircraft and those losses compound. loses first it lost its strategic radars and these are critical. These are the eyes uh and ears of US force rejection in the region. Those are the first things to get knocked out in this guided missile salvo competition. Iran you know came out of the blocks and won that competition right away. Uh and then the bases have been hit significantly

n 15 to 19 of them. So much so that the US is not even considering uh rebuilding them as far as we know and the key logistical bases have been knocked out. The key uh coordination uh you know uh the the the head of US control has been decapitated in West Asia and then we have all these planes and aircraft airframes that have been taken out. It's not the helicopters and you

know the um jet fighters that are the core issue here. Although they're very very expensive and once again as you lose more and more pieces your you know your losses compound. It's like a chess game after you lose the queen and the knight and the rook you know your your options are very very limited. But uh it's it's the tankers. The US has a limited number of tankers and uh remember jet

fighters and bombers or you know multi-range aircraft are still very restricted in how far they can project power. So without the tankers and also without the Awax the uh kind of airplanes that act as mobile radars and mobile command stations if those are knocked out then really the US capacity to project power becomes completely curtailed and US military power is air power. its air power. I mean it's it's it's multi-dommain operations

but its key advantage is in the projection of air power. It controls the skies and then everything else ensues from there. If it is no longer able to project air power and if it's uh uh awax and uh air air control aircraft are no longer capable that is like sacking the quarterback. you are so restricted in what you can do and I think this is what we're seeing right now. It also

has to do with the fact as you pointed out these are very very hard to replace especially with the uh lack of industrial capacity but also because the lack of rare earth elements that China has put a choke hold on. So the US is really losing capacity. Its losses are compounding. its air power projection capacity is significantly diminished and all of this at the same time that it is uh posturing as

if it were to do a major operation. Uh I think that you know there's something very very contradictory in that. I think we need to look at the objective facts. Um you know the ideologues can fight reality all they want but we stay grounded in reality. We derive truth from facts and the truth is that the US Chapter 6: The changing world order uh air power and air projection power is significantly

diminished. Maybe we can now do an evaluation. You know, uh, three years ago, KJ, the launch of not only resistance by the Palestinian people, um, but also the response to that, which was, uh, and and is still, uh, quite brutal, genocidal as it's been called by many. uh that ignited an acceleration of a regional war, a war of resistance in this in West Asia and ever since nothing has looked the same.

Uh and now we are not only in the throws of what is a a lengthy and will continue to be a lengthy uh USIsraeli war in Iran, but you mentioned Yemen. Now that uh part of the geopolitical landscape is literally on fire uh with Ansarala making uh rapid headway against their Saudi aggressors uh US backed of course. So the landscape has changed and uh uh I'm curious on how you view what

the situation is and how it impacts the rest of the world because uh you know uh we often hear about China and Russia in the background. We often hear about the United States and what its interests are. Israel who wags the dog. you know, all of this uh has become so much more of a part of the conversation of what's happening in this part of the world, but how this part of

the world affects the rest of the world. So, what are your thoughts reflecting now on these uh last three years of um you know what many have called hell and uh what others have also called a a huge moment of global change. Yeah, it's both, right? It has been absolute hell for uh people in West Asia, most certainly the Palestinians, certainly uh for the Yemenes. I mean, people forget that Yemen has

also been undergoing a genocide forced by Saudi Arabia, you know, for for years now. Uh you know, at least 300,000 400,000 people have perished in that uh genocidal war. But now they are fighting back. They're taking back their country. And we have to understand all of this as one large interconnected project of decolonization. The global south is finally fighting back and liberating itself in a way that it was not fully able

to accomplish in the postworld war II era. During the World War II, postworld war II era, there was some decolonization. Many countries got formal uh political uh sovereignty but they never were fully 24 minutesable to achieve economic sovereignty and there were all kinds of ways through the Bretonwood system and later neoliberal uh structural reform in which the US empire continue to control the planet. Uh Palestine was also critical in part of

this because it's one of the keystones of the imperial colonial project. It's you know the last settler colonial state uh that was created even as the rest of the world was decolonizing as settler colonial states were being completely uh you know transformed it was a specific settler colonial project all of that is shifting so I think that when we look back on this we'll see the turning point of history as being

uh the as as starting with what happened uh in on October 7th uh 3 years ago. Uh which isn't to say once again that it has not been atrocious, that it has not been uh you know a complete and total genocide and that we shouldn't in the global core do everything that we can to prevent uh any continuation of this war. And I'll talk a little bit more about that later. But

certainly US hijgemony is in decline. We're not in Kansas anymore. Uh the tide has shifted. The foundations of US power, in particular, military strength, backstopped by economic strength, backstopped by the control of the global reserve currency, which was tied to the control of hydrocarbons. All of those foundations are being undermined and we see the rising bricks and the alternative uh clearing house systems and the alternative financial systems and the alternative bank

banking systems. All of these things are being built out. So we're moving towards a multi-polar society that is decolonized from the western imperial corps that has controlled it in a vice grip for the last at least century I would argue really uh many centuries from uh 1492 onwards. So we're seeing a fundamental shift in history. This is really pivot point of history but at the same time it's not over yet. And

as the global south rises and rises peacefully, as China rises peacefully, the US declines more and more violently. We're still in that violent violent phase. Yeah. You know, KJ, the United States, as part of this process you're talking about, the United States finally made good on its or at least uh finally addressed its commitments. I don't know if we can call it making guns commitments to withdraw from Iraq, but as our

friend Brian Bletic has noted, a lot of those troops are simply moving to Jordan, where it seems like a lot of US troops are just huddling these days, partly because it's probably the only place they have left to go. But anyway, um I'm curious about this. You know, I was talking earlier about the US's reliance on proxies and Chapter 7: Proxies and resistance how if we look at the Syria case in

20, you know, 2024 when it fell and we just look at the the vast broad scope of the US's imperial strategy in West Asia. It has been heavily reliant on proxies that seems to be in short supply. Here are images of Iran attacking the Kurdish opposition groups in Iraq today. And they've been doing this almost every single day, weakening what is a heavily US supported uh opposition to which there have been

plans to use them as part of the shock troop force to attack Iran and create uh an internal external and internal crisis. But I'm curious on what your thoughts are about this. Uh there of course in other parts of the world, Latin America, the oligarchy and the proxies there are seem quite strong uh and on the move. But in West Asia, which arguably is a huge key for us, it's receding and

we could say probably in total uh Eur Asia as a whole uh that is also receding. It's really, it seems difficult for the US to actually cultivate allies and we know what the state of the Gulf countries are now. Um, in particular Saudi Arabia and its war on Yemen. So, your thoughts on this? This is a huge part of what the US does and uh there's cracks everywhere it seems. Well, I

mean there's specific parts that have to do with the uh history of each region and then there's the simple fact of geography. The US uh finds it easier to project force in its own he hemisphere in the Americas. It always has done that. That's where it started from. And so that's one dimension of its control. But the other fact is not simply distance but political history. We know that the Gulf States

were started as many of them as crucial states essentially British colonial vassels. uh they signed a pact with the British Imperial Devil uh in exchange for continued uh support and sovereignty. In exchange, they would facilitate the flow of oil and allow the British mandate to continue in West Asia. All of these Gulf states lack legitimacy. They lack they lack popular support. Many of them don't even have fixed populations. Uh you know

anywhere between 50 to 90% of their populations are migrant laborers who are brought in to do uh the work that that the citizens don't want to do and many are kept into in conditions that approximate or approach slavery indentured slavery. So all of this is to say that uh US power projection is weakening because as its absolute economic and military power uh weakens, not only does it take out its frustrations on

its sidekicks and its quote unquote allies, but also the allies themselves become restive. they realize uh that the boss is not as strong uh as as formerly projected and therefore they start to balance. They start to look for their own alliances. They start to do their own hedging and balancing and alliance building and all of that creates a ripple effect where the network this kind of hub and spoke control this top

down control that the US had over the over the world is significantly undermined. It's weakened. That said, there are still shock troops and proxies that the US still seeking to leverage. Certainly, we think that, you know, Syrian proxies could be one. We certainly know that in the Pacific, Japan and Korea and the Philippines and Taiwan could be recruited as proxies. This is an old imperial strategy. You know, when China attacked when

Britain attacked China, it used 20,000 uh warriors from Rajasthani, you know, to uh to to be the shock troops of the Opium War. So all of this is to say that we know proxies are part of the agenda. We know that they are deadly and ruthless proxies out there and yet at the same time I think that there is significant weakness. There's not enough strength uh even amongst these proxies to do

what the United States wants to do which is to invade attack and ultimately control its enemies most notably in this case Iran. It is not capable certainly it's not capable of maintaining a sustained attack and there is no way that it could hold a territory even if it were to attack it. And we see the, you know, retreat out of Afghanistan and Iraq being good examples. You can invade, you can destroy,

that doesn't mean you can hold a territory. Some have made the comparison of what's happening in Yemen now to Afghanistan. Do you see any of that? I mean some have said even have gone as far as saying and the uh what the western mainstream media call Houthis are are similar to uh the Taliban but um I never saw the Taliban launch ballistic missiles at a uh an airport in an in a

in a different country. Um so uh your thoughts on this uh before we look at the rest of Eurasia? Yeah, I think it's qualitatively different. Afghanistan was an insurgency and essentially what they did was they wore the US down. The US uh tried hard you know it built out for decades it built out entire doctrine and a system of counterinsurgency and it tried its best and it was simply worn down and

defeated. On the other hand, Yemen, despite the near genocidal sanctions, it has endured, the near genocidal war that is endured, has become a very very powerful fighting force that understands modern strategy and modern multi-dommain operations and as I said, it's using uh its uh geographic advantages, you know, superbly and as you point out, it's, you know, waging a missile war. It is going toe-to-toe with the United States going toe-to-toe in this

guided missile uh you know uh launch competition and it too is coming out ahead. So this you know the fact that it is capable of working on that level shows that it is qualitatively different from the smaller insurgencies that were enduring and very very you know effective but they're completely different. Yeah. And some of the argument has been that uh you know the Taliban at one point had certain levels of support

from the United States. There's um you know uh some who have suggested that Ansarella has also at some points received certain levels of support from the United States. But uh when I look at the landscape KJ I agree with you. It's like the what has happened since 2014 uh to Yemen. Uh there is such a clear line it seems of this organization, this political force which is also a political force with

government uh power, state power that uh looks far more like a part of the axis of resistance than just a a byproduct of blowback. Uh so that's I I wanted to bring that up because I see the comparisons a lot and I think it kind of falls into this narrative of well you know these groups are all just you know armed groups that are uh you know at one form or another

dictated at one point by the US. Uh any thoughts on that before we move on? Well the US has always played a double game with many many opponents. Uh it has always tried to cajul. It's always tried to bribe. It's always trying to get its way with different components. So that history, if you dig deep enough, you will probably find something that looks like cooperation, a support, but that doesn't mean that

right now they're not uh diametrically opposed to each other. The Taliban, you know, Talib actually means scholar, right? I mean these were created these were students scholars that were actually created as blowback as you point out by the United States itself as it mismanaged its invasion and then occupation of Iraq. Uh Ansarah are much much more enduring uh force. Uh they track their history back centuries. uh they have a strong uh

not only ideological and religious discipline but they have a strong military structure. The Taliban was never able to force a US aircraft carrier or significant platform to retreat. Uh Ansarah has done that and it's done that multiple times. These are qualitatively different forces and it shows the ways in which the global south is organizing and uh regrouping in ways that are capable of challenging the United States uh on its own turf

and in its own area of strength. just simply the fact that Iran was able to stand and punch back against the United States and it's the United States that had to go go back to the corner shows you that uh you know military affairs are no longer the same that things have transformed fundamentally. Yeah. Yeah. on Sarala. The the things it has achieved under the worst of conditions also include blockading Israel

successfully. Israel just called Ansar a mini Iran. They called Yemen and now a mini Iran because of its uh missile and drone capabilities being as advanced as they are. So advanced that they're releasing videos of precision targeting um against these Saudi back forces. So pushing back Saudi Arabia, defeating the United States in that several month uh uh act of aggression, war of aggression last year and of course what we're seeing now.

So KJ, now I want to ask you about the state of what's happening in the Asia-Pacific because uh you know in recent weeks we saw a US Marine has allegedly and has been arrested for committing murder against a woman in Okinawa on one of the many bases that the United as part of one of the many bases the US has there. Uh we also have reports and I can pull this up.

It's actually quite comical. CNBC about how China has obtained parts of an F-35. Chapter 8: Asia-Pacific setbacks And now I covered this story earlier when it first broke. But now they're saying that the UPS uh manager responsible for fielding this package of of F-35 parts just simply missed his email. Check this out. In today's Executive Edge, a story about the importance of checking your email. China managed to obtain parts from a

US F-35 stealth fighter jet after a UPS employee missed an email warning not to route that shipment through Hong Kong. That's according to a Bloomberg report that said that the shipment of the war plane parts was meant to travel to San Francisco through South Korea and then Taiwan, but it was late leaving Australia and was mistakenly routed through Hong Kong in an effort to try and speed up delivery. China seized the

parts in Hong Kong and the Pentagon is in their words actively working to retrieve them. So KJ, your thoughts on this? I mean there from the of course horrors of what the U what it means to be occupied by the United States like Okinawa is to these absolutely ridiculous narratives. I mean I don't even know why they release uh stories like this uh you know to the public. maybe they just can't

hide it anymore about the F-35 parts, but you know the United States and then we also of course had the Trump visit uh which caused a lot of consternation on the part of Neocon hawks both on the Democratic and Republican side. So your thoughts on the state of this uh uh always building war toward China but a buildup that has its share of setbacks. Well, these kind of things happen all the

time. You know, I remember a little while back they were sending I think anthrax uh through uh you know the mail and some of that got misouted for the Jupiter program and just just nonsensical things that happened in this case you know the perhaps that person didn't see the email but uh my goodness you know uh if it relies on a single email if you know the transmission of critical ical uh

strategic materials, you know, relies on whether somebody receives an email or not. There's something wrong with that workflow. You know, there's something seriously misguided. And then who knows, you know, maybe the email itself was not working properly. As you know, we see constantly the entire system is being in shitified and nothing works properly anymore. And it's not surprising that also bleeds into the military-industrial complex. We know it's already starting off with

graft and incompetence and then, you know, with more, you know, systems failure all around. Not a surprise. But regarding the the US uh marine who killed a Japanese woman, I mean, these are the kind of things that happen often, the crimes against the native people where the US has bases. US has what 750 800 bases in over 130 countries and everywhere where there is a US base there is a potential for

this kind of violence damage criminality death assault rape uh part of the problem is the United States when it uh goes into a host country it signs what is called a status of forces agreement and that gives the US tremendous powers sometimes s even cart blanch uh against the local population. So you send in groups of uh young people who are trained to be violent and to be hateful, who are trained

to hate uh people of color who are trained to wage war. Uh and then they have guns and weapons. And then on top of that they have money and they have impunity. They have immunity. That is a recipe for catastrophe. And from time to time we see very very visible uh incidents like this. The marine took this Japanese woman to a hotel, killed her and then walked out with her backpack. That's

what allowed uh him to be identified. But this kind of thing happens all the time. It's almost a kind of uh side effect of having this massive military presence around the world and training uh men to engage in violence against people and then giving them almost unlimited power. Certainly uh a certain kind of immunity or impunity. That is a recipe for catastrophe and we've seen it over and over and over again.

This is just the most recent example. Other examples in Okinawa, they've happened many times. Some of these are horrific. You know, young girls being uh kidnapped and raped in Korea. You know, young girls driven over by uh by tanks or armored cars while they're going to to work, going to school, uh etc. This kind of stuff happens all the time. It's deadly. It's dangerous. It's violent. It's ugly. uh and uh you

know the the sooner the United States dials down its military presence in other countries which it has because it wants to wage war in particular in Asia against China. The sooner it dials this down the less uffering there will be for local populations and actually the better it will be for the US economy because not we're wasting our money on hurting people around the world. Chapter 9: Focusing on China Yeah. Well,

before the Iran war came, I mean, this was the speed that had essentially had all of the almost all of the US's military hardware. Almost everything it had uh was moving in this direction, but a lot of that has changed. I'm curious how you see the overall landscape now that the of course the US still has all of these bases. can't have fine. Absolutely disastrous and shocking numbers just shock the United

States in this part of the world alone. your thoughts on how the West Asia feels like um you know there was a report by the CIA red team that said that Israel is facing a major crisis internally which we know that with the history of colonialism and settler colonies like it internal crises always mean external uh catastrophes for uh the region and and a lot of the world. So, uh, the region

itself in West Asia seems like it's a powder keg that's already been sparked and lit in many ways and could get worse. Uh, almost we can guarantee that there will be more attempts by Israel and the United States to clamp down and uh try to expand their dominance there no matter how much it waines. And then how does that affect though this theater in in Asia in the Asia Pacific with China?

Because there are some in the Washington establishment, the foreign policy establishment who are not happy with being tied in. I mean, I can almost see the midterms now as a referendum on the US's uh incessant focus on West Asia and a desire to go back to the more eastern parts of the Eurasia theater like China and of course Russia. Yeah. Uh this good question. Uh certainly you know in I hate to

say this but I believe the US is in a school shooter mode. Uh it's creating havoc all over West Asia as you point out. It's lighting fires everywhere. Uh setting uh you know havoc and destruction. It's letting loose the dogs of war everywhere. Um it also wants to pivot to the Asia-Pacific. In the neocon class there are two categories. They are the primacies. They're the ones who want it everywhere. They want

primacy everywhere all the time at once. And then you have the prioritizers who say, "Look, you know, we need to sequence things. We need to have a division of labor. We need to strategically re resequence." And the most important critical path for us to move forward is through China. Everything goes through China. We knock out China first uh and then we go back and knock out the others who are really, you

know, side jobs. the head of the snake is China. So we still see the this kind of prior prioritizer thinking that wants to take the war to China. We see the constant escalation in the Pacific. We see uh the constant war gaming, the uparm arouring of the entire first island chain. The US is scrging, you know, all the islands of the Pacific looking for every single scrap of asphalt from where it

can launch missiles uh and uh and and planes from. So the powder keg, as you put it, is still being primed. We are not out of the woods yet. It's still very very dangerous. And at the same time bar the transition or the you know deployment of nuclear weapons which Elbridge Colby is saying that we should use like candies wants to hand them out like condoms or like candies. Barring that uh

shift which is very much a possibility from a conventional standpoint the US cannot prevail. As I pointed out before uh the US plan of war against Iran was the plan of war against China. Air sea battle a guided missile salvo competition. US could not prevail against Iran. It will not be able to prevail against China on those grounds. It simply doesn't have the industrial capacity, doesn't have the rare earth elements, doesn't

have the force projection power. It wants to use its proxies as much as possible, but it will still fall short. And so this is a moment both of tremendous risk uh and also of potential transformation. We have to keep both in mind as I've said, sorry to be trit, it's darkest, just before dawn. Uh and we're on the cusp of transformation. uh things have the potential to get worse before they get

better. We could see further conflicts, accelerated, intensified conflicts in West Asia. We could see accelerated conflicts in Europe. Europe looks like it's primed for war and also uh certainly in East Asia where there is the primary focus. I do want to point out one thing that has been interesting is South Korea has just given the middle finger to Ukraine. And when I say middle finger, they're actually withdrawing. They're recalling their ambassador

from Kiev. Recalling an ambassador is probably the strongest diplomatic rebuke that you can uh send 51 minutesshort of completely severing relations with another country completely. And as you know, this has to do with the fact that Zalinski went before the UN, talked about South Korea uh sending North Korean uh PS to South Korea and he was under a non-disclosure agreement. He broke that. South Korea's president was insensed and called it a

betrayal in public essentially. Uh called out Zalinski and now there's all kinds of back and forth. We'll see what happens. But this is a very interesting moment because first it shows the way in which East Asia and uh West Asia uh in particular Europe are all interconnected. The key fact is that uh during the Yun administration, the previous South Korean president, he had this slavish desire to curry favor with the United

States and the US was running out of munitions in its war against Russia, in its proxy war in Ukraine against Russia. It needed about 90,000 shells every month. It could only produce 9,000. So it went to South Korea and said, "South Korea is 330,000. We can get them in 41 days. Let's call up the South Koreans, tell them to FedEx it to us express." And Yun in his slaverish desire to curry

favor said yes. And they sent uh probably between 330,000 to perhaps half a million shells. In other words, it was the South Koreans Chapter 10: Geopolitical fractures who maintained who continued the war against Russia. Otherwise that uh uh war of attrition involving uh you know uh shells would have would have ended uh 3 years ago. So South Korea sent at least half a million 155 mm shells to Ukraine. It did this

illegally because in under South Korean law, you cannot send arms into an active conflict which you are not a party to. But what they did was they said they were lending them to the United States and then the United States would send them to Ukraine. Shells are funible. 155 mm shells are funible. So it was just a pretense. But he sent shells to Ukraine more than all of Europe. South Korea by

itself sent more shells to Ukraine than all of Europe. It also sent um perhaps 100 105 mm howitzers. It sent them to the Czech Republic, which doesn't even use them in their arsenal. So, those were clearly being sent to uh Ukraine. It sent other types of aid. Uh and then it currently has a contract with Poland to build high type uh guided missiles, what the Koreans call Chonmu. Hanoi is a company

which is building high type 54 minutesmissiles in Poland. We know where those are going to end up. those are going to be sent into Ukraine. But anyway, all of this is that Yun was too happy to oblige. He even went to Bha and did a photo op with his wife and went on about values diplomacy. The values meaning the values of sick fancy to empire, the values of the Epstein class. But

Russia warned South Korea not to get involved. The foreign minister and the deputy foreign minister both stated explicitly to South Korea, you do not get involved. You do not send weapons that will kill Russian citizens. If you do, they will be held to pay. And South Korea continued. And so, President Putin signed a strategic agreement, a mutual defense treaty with North Korea in 2024. And then North Korea sent troops to help

uh defend and liberate Kursk uh when uh Ukraine invaded it. And then of these two of these troops were taken prisoner of war. Now this is where it gets very very sticky because under international human humanitarian law those troops should have been sent back to North Korea or at least Russia since they were fighting under a Russian flag. Instead, this is my what I summize, the Yun administration probably initiated moves to

have them taken to South Korea. Now, under South Korean law, all North Koreans are automatically considered South Korean. And if they're taken prisoner of war, South Korea tries really hard to take them into South Korea as a kind of propaganda coup. This is what happened for example during the Korean war. The Korean war was essentially over by 1951 but it took another two and a half years just to 56 minutesnegotiate uh

how the PS would be repatriated and and who and how. So it is an extraordinarily sensitive issue and from the standpoint of North Korea, they see this appropriation by South Korea of North Korean troops as a kidnapping. And to the best of our knowledge, since we have never heard from these North Korean troops what they actually want, there's been no independent third party evaluation or announcement of what they want. I think

it's reasonable to assume that they are being taken against their will. Uh North Korea would most certainly see it as a kidnapping. And also the other thing is they were probably certainly mistreated by the Ukrainians, possibly tortured. One of them had a broken jaw. You know, I've been in military combat. Broken jaw is the last thing that happens in combat, right? You all kinds of injuries happen in combat. broken jaw is

highly highly unlikely. So they're most likely uh retreated and that mistreated that makes them very hard to repatriate to Russia or North Korea because North Korea would expose their mistreatment and actually even the release of their pictures was a violation of the Geneva Conventions. The Geneva Convention is very very you know strict on this. You do not take pictures of PS and release them to the public. So there was probably some

kind of deal that was sent struck to send them to South Korea. When they go to South Korea, they essentially get deprogrammed. They're put into a place called Hanawan where they're held in this kind squid game type compound where they're constantly surveiled and deprogrammed, incredibly tight security. And then once they go finish their Hanawan, they're selected. There's if you're young, pretty, and uh photogenic, they're usually you're usually uh put out onto

the North Korea defector circuit where you are paid large amounts of money to defect to to to you know to attack North Korea and tell lies about it. The that um there's one uh one young woman who's been totally discredited. Um but but anyway, you know, she's the one who said that she started taking courses at Colombia University and realized that it was more oppressive than North Korea. She may actually be

right, but not in the way that she thinks. But anyway, you know, there's a a category of North Korean defectors that are trotted out into the propaganda system and then the other people are quietly, you know, disappeared into a black hole and you never hear from them again. So, one of those things would have happened to these people. These people would have probably gone into a black hole. But then Jun Soyal,

the former president, was impeached. the EJang administration came in. Zalinski was pushing for more South Korean military support. As I said, South Korea has been the quartermaster to the Ukraine conflict. It has supplied more munitions, for example, than all of Europe combined. And I believe that he could leverage the P situation into gaining more support. when he didn't get that, I think that he decided to, you know, blow the whistle and

create tremendous conflict and inconvenience for Ejyong because the EJong government is trying to deescalate with North Korea. And by blowing the whistle on this and showing that North Koreans are being sent to South Korea, this would automatically uh scuttle any overtures that South Korea is making with it. So I believe that there was an NDA governing the relationship, the transfer uh and uh 1 hourfrom North Korea's standpoint, you know, this would

be seen as a South Korean kidnapping uh and Kiev would also have an incentive to keep it quiet because these prisoners could have been exchanged for Ukrainian PW. So but anyway, he blabbed at it at the UN. South Korea called it treachery. the president went uh on uh you know went public and said that this was betrayal. The South Korean foreign minister has called it unheard of in diplomacy. And then instead

of apologizing, Ukraine has accused Ejyang of lying about it. Highly unlikely, but they claimed that there was no NDA, which is nonsense. And then to rub salt into, you know, the friction, they also hinted that this could provoke a war between North Korea and South Korea. That was kind of, you know, I mean, in fact, they would like to see a war between North Korea and South Korea because then that would

prevent North Korea that would tie down North Korea. So anyway, that was, I think, beyond the pale. And then they started to allege that South Korea had helped Russia and was buying Russian oil. And so I think that was the last straw. So that fake apology and that distaste for Ukrainian politics and South Korean involvement in the Ukrainian side along with South Korea's desire to keep good relations with Russia. I mean,

Russia is South Korea's neighbor. Uh South Korea will now recall their ambassador. So we don't know if this will be a permanent recall or a temporary recall but it's a really really strong signal that there are serious uh friction there serious fractures even among the vassels. The EU has threatened South Korea you know to retaliate if it breaks relations with Ukraine. So that tells you where the EU is. But I think

uh you know things are already significantly damaged. Uh and it 2 minutesshows the kind of weakening of these alliances that the US has painstakingly built. Yunagiel originally wanted to incorporate South Korea into NATO and further vaselize it and Ejamyong has you know sent a signal you know we're not going down this path and essentially we're breaking relations with uh Ukraine unless there's a significant shift in attitude and behavior. Wow. F uh

incredible uh summary really honing in on this really critical example of exactly where the world situation is and how the United States in particular is navigating it uh to uh you know great ends uh and great lengths to achieve these ends. But yeah, KJ, you know, I'll just we can close it here on uh you know, there's always people asking me, well, you know, is the US empire in decline and collapsing

or is it uh powerful and surging and you know, able to assert its monopoly on violence. I would say that we are seeing signs of decline everywhere. The US empire is certainly receding. it's uh you know h sitting on top of myriad of crises but this monopoly on violence and this uh world financial system and everything that you just outlined here in this example of South Korea shows that no the US

still has the ability to uh squeeze to uh try to suffocate and uh cause immense amount of suffering. Does that mean it will lead to the resurgence of uh the United States as a hedgeimon with no uh without any challengers? No. Likely not. Like likely what we're seeing is the exact opposite of that and we're going to continue to see the exact opposite of that for quite some time. Um unless something

as you said p pull a rabbit out of the hat unless there's some trick that I'm not aware of. Um but nevertheless this is the I think it's like you know holding two things together at the same time two contradictions. One yeah the US is going to wreak havoc as an empire chaos. It's going to continue to try to vaselize oppress suppress um but at the same time we are seeing a

lot of inroads toward building a different kind of world. So KJ your final thoughts. Well, as you point out, you know, as the US becomes the US still is incredibly violent and is as it weakens, it becomes more and more violent. It declines violently as the global south rises peacefully and that uh resort to violence we can understand it as a kind of reversion to primitive accumulation. capitalist states when they start

they start out with genocide. They start out with slavery and colonization and then they financialize and they uh create these neoc colonial systems of control. But when that weakens then they come right back into that naked violence. So we see this reversion to direct primitive accumulation this direct overtaking for example of Venezuela's economy. the threatening of Canada, of Greenland, uh, etc. This naked reversion to colonization and massive military violence. Uh, all

of that is to say that there is, and I hate to say this, there is more pain to come and that pain is also, uh, it's already here domestically, but it will increase domestically. The economy is getting worse. uh and I believe that there's further imiseration. Certainly the 6 minutesbubble is ready to pop. Uh certainly you know bond markets are and interest rates are going to you know uh increase and thus

have massive catastrophic effects across the board. We know that hydrocarbons are still uh on are going to increase and the hydrocarbon shortage and all the related resources including Napa, sulfur, ura, all of this. These shortages uh will continue to increase. There'll be uh demand destruction across the world. So not to get apocalyptic but there is massive pain, suffering and destruction that is still in you know uh you know uh that that

is still approaching but I think you know as I always say there is something we can do. One thing we have to understand is that right now the military is going 7 minutesto have a $1.5 trillion war budget. This war budget is preparing for war, but in particular it's preparing for war with China. Uh this is the largest budget adjusted military budget adjusted to inflation since World War II at its peak.

So really we are looking at massive peak expenditure preparation for war. Even as you know troops go on food stamps and you know the vast majority of troops who join they never signed up for war. In fact the only thing they signed up for is socialism because the military is about the closest thing to socialism that you can get in the United States. that is guaranteed roof, guaranteed food, guaranteed work, guaranteed

health, guaranteed education, right? So that's not what they signed up for, but they're being put in harm's way. And they are also putting others, uh, you know, millions of others in harm's way. And so, um, vast majority of people in the United States currently think that the $1.5 trillion request is too high. And if we actually do a correct uh calculations probably closer to 2.3 trillion but vast majority of people in

the country at least 60% believe that the military budget is too high. Uh we know that this is going to take us down a path of catastrophe. Uh and I think that it's important to the extent that budgets are a moral statement. I believe we should make a moral statement, but also because we know that the effects on us will be devastating both domestically because all that money that could have gone

to serve humans will be now be poured into the machine of destruction and also because it will create untold threat, damage, harm, fear to the rest of the world. So I think that right now we have to, you know, put our shoulders to the wheel and uh and and make the demand that we do not wage war on China and we do not pass uh legislation that appropriates money for war against

China, that appropriates uh $1.5 trillion for war against uh the rest of the world. So anyway, um all of this is to say that Code Pink is doing three days of action, three days of nonviolent action November 10th, 11th, and 12th in Washington. They want to uh rally our so-called legislators who are supposed to represent us and tell them to reject the war buildup to reject plans for war in particular against

China reject domination of Asia and the Asia-Pacific and to urge Congress to invest money in healthcare, housing, education, community needs, sustainable future, all the things that we know that we want and everybody has been clamoring for for decades and last but not least to demand peace and cooperation over war. And so uh if you're interested and I think this is an eminently important uh movement move eminently important action which is being

led by some of the most courageous and principled activists uh in the United States right now, Code Pink. uh you can go to their website and there's a form you can join, sign up. Y and really I mean I think this is one of the moments where we can actually make a difference or at least try to make a difference. Yeah. Well said. And we'll end it here by letting you all

know that you can sign that form. You can participate any way you would like to. So uh this is the form. uh this November you you know you just give your email your name um and what you would want to do whether you want to join the march in person or just want to help with planning or just want to participate remotely just let them know and uh that's how you can

become part of especially if you're in the United States you can become part of an effort to stop this uh everexpanding war machine and to build a bigger very popular consensus around that. So do that. That link is in the video description below. I want to thank everyone uh who viewed today. Thanks to Forzanad for the super chat. Thanks to all the moderators in the chat today, this evening. Appreciate your time

um and your efforts. Thanks to everyone who viewed the show today. I'll be back tomorrow. I'll let you know when that is. But hit the like button before you go. Do support the channel if you can. Patreon subsc

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The Saudi Monarchy's Glory Days Are Over
Reason2Resist with Dimitri Lascaris
Oct 9, 2026

The entire West has thrown its weight behind the Saudi dictatorship, but as Dimitri Lascaris explains, its inability to protect Saudi has been exposed to the entire world.



Transcript

Chapter 1: Introduction to report Good day. This is Demetri Lceris coming to you from Kalamata, Greece for Reason to Resist on October 9th, 2026. Since our last report on the Saudi genocidal war on Yemen, which we published on October 6th, Ansarah has responded to Saudi's ongoing bomb bombardment of the country with a massive escalation. Ansadalah's missiles and drones have struck major Saudi oil facilities around the so-called

kingdom and have destroyed commercial aircraft on the ground at the airport in the Saudi capital Riyad. To put it bluntly, the Saudi dictatorship is reeling. At the same time, Iran's military has taken its attacks on Hormuzu's shipping to an unprecedented level. Predictably, all of this has pushed the price of oil upward, but Trump has resorted to his customary lies to stem the tide. In this report, we'll break down these latest developments

and also discuss the lamentable state of Israel's genocidal military. Before we begin, please remember to like and share this video if you find it to be informative. And if you're not already a subscriber to Reason to Resist, please become one and help us to expand the reach of our unapologetic on the ground resistance journalism. So let's begin. First, let's examine the attacks on Saudi airports. Chapter 2: Attacks on Saudi airports And

by way of background, it's important to recall that this later chap this latest chapter in this more than decadel long genocidal war on Yemen, began when the Saudi autotocracy bombed the airport in Sana, the capital of Yemen in July of this year. At that time I was in Iran to cover the uh funeral of the slain the martyed supreme leader Al Kamei. And uh Yemeni had officials had been brought to Iran

to attend the funeral on an Iranian civilian aircraft. And when it attempted to return those uh officials back to uh Yemen by way of the airport in the capital of Yemen, Sana, uh the Saudis bombed the airport as the civilian aircraft was approaching and that is what unleashed this latest round of hostilities. why the Saudis did that uh and at whose direction probably frankly Donald Trump's uh truly boggles the mind because

it has in now uh ens snared Saudi Arabia in what is arguably the greatest geopolitical disaster in its entire history. Now, uh, a senior Iranian official, uh, by the way, was forced to issue, uh, a similar threat to all air traffic, uh, a threat similar to the one that, uh, Ansalah is currently implementing in Saudi Arabia when, uh, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whom I believe to be one of the

most dim-witted people in Trump's inner circle, and believe me, that's saying something. uh he basically declared that the United States was going to bring to an end uh all international air travel inv from Iran and to Iran by sanctioning any airport whatever country it may be in uh that either received flights from Iran or allowed civilian aircraft to fly into Iran. And that has pretty much uh brought to an end, although

not entirely. There still is some uh air travel coming in and out of Iran, but it certainly has uh greatly constrained the ability of civilian airlines to operate in Iran. And uh uh not surprisingly uh the Yemenes uh have a a key ally of Iran have decided to put the kaibosh on civilian aircrafts uh and civilian uh transportation in the airspace of Saudi Arabia. So all of this again is a disaster

of the Saudi uh dictator's own making. Now in the past three years by the way I myself have tried repeatedly to travel to Yemen uh to do reporting on the ground. Uh and actually in 2024 I think it might have been early 2025 when there were a few flights from Aman to Sana. I managed to obtain a visa from the authorities in Sana the Yemeni authorities. But then when I tried to

purchase uh a uh an airline ticket from Aman Dana, I was told that I needed another visa from the Saudibbacked entity which is based in the Yemeni city of Aiden. Uh and uh as a result I never actually made it into Yemen during that brief period of time that it was possible uh to fly into the country. And all of this, of course, is having a devastating impact on the uh economy

and innocent civilians within Yemen. Just as the uh constraints now being imposed upon uh the civilian airline industry in Iran is having a significant uh negative impact on the civilian population of Iran. But that of course is the ultimate objective here. It's to punish uh the civilian populations for not overthrowing uh governments that refuse to do the bidding of the uh masters of the universe in Washington. Now, it's in that context

therefore that an Salara announced recently that it was going to effectively bring an end to civilian air travel in Saudi airspace. And today it was announced by the Saudi authorities themselves. Uh this is a report actually this is from yesterday not today in the BBC. Three people killed in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia airports officials say and the article explains that these attacks uh uh took place at the Abba international airport

uh and also at the King Khaled International Airport in Riyad. uh two people were killed and 28 wounded in the attack at ABBA according to the Saudi general authority of civil a aviation. I by the way am not in a position to confirm any of this information but this is what that authority has reported and what the BBC uh is uh in turn sharing with its readers and uh the BBC says

uh the attacks which the Houthis have claimed responsibility for mark an escalation of renewed war between the Saudi backed government forces and the Iranbacked Houthies in Yemen. the two airports were attack were attacked on 6th and 7th October according to the Saudi uh civilian uh air transportation authority uh but they did not specify when each airport was hit. Not surprisingly as a result of this major international airlines have announced the suspension

of their flights into uh Saudi Arabia. Uh they include Lufanza and Indian Airlines. This was yesterday and in fact it's not just uh one Indian airline uh three Indian airlines will suspend flights to Riyad. They uh disclosed yesterday as a result of the unsettled attacks on Saudi airports. And a Lufansza spokesperson told Reuters the German groups airlines will spend flights to the ad through October 16 due to current developments in the

Middle East. Uh so that's for at least a week. It'll be interesting to see if they have the uh the uh courage or recklessness uh to resume flights. I'm referring here to Lufanza after October 16th. And uh just now uh the uh national airline of Pakistan uh just a few hours ago announced that it was suspending flights into Saudi Arabia which is really quite something when you consider uh that the uh

the Washington installed uh uh autocrat of Pakistan Shabbash Sharif is pretty much a doormat of the Saudis. So even uh he is allowing the national airline of Pakistan uh to take this uh I think rational precautionary measure. So the other thing I want to mention is that uh Ansarah is not uh confining its attacks on Saudi airports. It has also uh been reported by Tasnim News uh actually this is coming from

a statement of the Yemeni armed forces themselves that they had targeted the cargo of a Saudi Arabian military uh equipment and items that had arrived at the Bad camp near the Aden International Airport using ballistic missiles. And according to this statement following this missile attack a number of Saudi Arabian officers were killed and wounded. The Yemeni armed forces warned that the enemy's use of aid in civilian airport for military purposes is

unacceptable and will be met with [clears throat] a response if repeated. Now all of this is obviously a huge blow to the prestige and the credibility of the Saudi dictator Muhammad bin Salman. um you know if uh quite apart from the damage that this will do to the economy of Saudi Arabia which has already taken a huge hit uh because of the dramatic reduction in its ability to export oil uh the

lifeblood of the Saudi economy. Uh it's also uh indicative of his utter inability despite having uh the seventh largest military budget in the world [clears throat] to prevent devastating attacks on the airports of Saudi Arabia by uh a military force south of the Saudi border which has a tiny fraction of the budget of Saudi Arabia. It's truly amazing. And and also Saudi Arabia is being helped by every vassel of Washington imaginable.

They're being helped by Pakistan. They're being helped by Turkey. They're being helped by the Greeks who sent one of their precious Patriot air defense systems to Saudi Arabia months ago and claimed to have taken down Iranian ballistic missiles with without ever having a reduced an iota of evidence to back up the claim. By the way, they're being helped by the French, by the British, you name it. And they still can't even

protect their most important civilian airports. Uh this is truly a humiliation for the Saudi dictator. Uh and I'm going to come back to uh what this might mean for his future uh in a few minutes time. Now we uh we'll turn now to the uh attacks on key Saudi oil Chapter 3: Strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure infrastructure in infrastructure by by Salah. We have new satellite images and videos of major damage

to key Saudi Aramco oil facilities. Uh this is a satellite image of uh damage to the uh Saudi refinery in Riyad, the capital of Saudi Arabia. Let's watch this brief clip again. You see there the uh huge plume of smoke and then uh what looks like charred uh oil tanks. Uh and then we have uh this image of the of a major fire uh at the Aramco facility in Rabig, Saudi Arabia.

And uh you'll be interested to know, I'm sure, that both of these huge refineries produce diesel fuel at a time when uh the price of diesel is just about crippling the European economy and uh is doing quite significant damage to the economy of the United States and to the ability of ordinary citizens to uh meet their basic needs, pay for their groceries and so forth. So on top of that we have

uh this imagery satellite imagery of uh fuel tanks destroyed at the Rabig refinery. We just showed you the video of the fire at that refinery. Again have a look at this. So obviously considerable damage done there to uh those fuel tanks. And here's new satellite imagery of major damage to uh Saudi Aramco's gigantic crude processing plant at Abkai. These actually slow show the plumes of smoke rising up. There are obviously several

points there that are uh blazing in fire. And uh we also have uh another image of uh damage done to uh Saudi Arabia's Abkai. Now it's uh no mystery why uh Ansarah is ravaging Saudis oil infrastructure. Uh it's because the Saudis will not stop committing atrocities and in the most cowardly manner in Yemen uh by bombing the civilian population from a safe distance. Here is a statement that was put out by

Yakya Sari, spokesman of the Yemeni armed forces yesterday. In the in the last , F-15 and Typhoon fighters launched from Kamis Mushit and Ty bases and carried out 59 air and missile attacks on Sana, that's the capital, and nine other provinces. With the recording of 59 attacks in the last day and night, the total of Saudi air and missile attacks has reached 1,857 cases since the beginning of this new round of

escalation of conflicts. Uh, amazing. Absolutely amazing that the Saudi dictatorship won't do what is in the long-term interest of Saudi Arabia without any question and meet the fair demands of Ansalah, namely a lifting of its genocidal blockade on the country which has been in place for more than a decade, an end to the bombardment and an end to the arming of Saudibbacked mercenaries inside Yemen. Now with that, let's turn to the

unsatella ground offensive inside Yemen. Uh there are Chapter 4: Ground offensive in Yemen reports that uh a deal has been struck with uh the between Ansarad's leadership and the leadership of the Saudibbacked forces that have been occupying Tais the third largest city of Yemen uh for quite some time and uh this uh is one such report by uh an account uh known as Aparita Naf's nephes uh this report published I believe

yesterday uh claims as follows. The Isla party forces abandon the city, civilians loot armories in the Saudiled coalition defense line collapses completely in Taiz. Taiz, a city under siege for a decade, is undergoing a total collapse of power. Over the past , armed forces belonging to the Isla Party, the Yemeni branch of the Muslim Brotherhood have begun a full-scale withdrawal from the city of Tais as they pulled out local residents, flooded

into abandoned military strongholds, and looted the weapon depots left behind the Isla party. By the way, this post was accompanied by a video which according 15 minutesto the uh author of this post showed uh residents of Taes looting the armories of the Isla party and uh the uh author of this post goes on to say this was a deal not a route the Islam party's withdrawal a pre-arranged handover the Isla party's

retreat was not the result of a battlefield defeat multiple sources confirmed that the Isla leadership reached an agreement with the son aside Ansaralah they would relinquish ta in exchange for safe passage for their fighters to withdraw. Now I have not been able uh to find confirmation of these claims from official sources inside Yemen. Uh but uh we have plenty of reason to believe that the city of Taiz was surrounded completely uh

by Ansala forces within the past week and that it's only a matter of time before the forces inside the city uh run out of ammunition and uh 16 minutesfind themselves incapable of defending uh the city of Taes. So it is in entirely I think uh credible plausible uh that this uh agreement has been struck and if in fact it has been struck that would be the humane and rational thing for the

leadership of Ansatala to do in order to minimize the suffering of the civilian population and avoid having to kill uh any Yemenes who have been serving uh in uh support of the Saudi dictatorship inside the city of Tais. Now uh on top of that we have a video uh published in the last couple of days by Ansatala. It's sort of a medley compilation of activities of its ground forces inside Yemen. We

thought we would share that with you. [music] [music] You will have seen that uh in that video it appears that Ansadala forces in numerous cases have captured significant uh munitions and other armaments uh from the Saudi backed mercenaries uh whom they have ousted from various areas uh they previously controlled. Uh and finally, when it comes to the situation on the ground uh in Yemen, we wanted to share with you uh this

video just published of Yemenes yet again, even during a time of barbaric warfare being waged upon their country uh by the westernbacked Saudi dictatorship gathering in large numbers out in the open air to express their solidarity with the ongoing uh with the victims of the ongoing genocide in Palestine. And here is that video. Chapter 5: Shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz [cheering] [cheering] [screaming] It is truly remarkable uh that one

of the most impoverished countries in the in circumstances such as these would see so much mass support for uh the people of Palestine uh who have suffered even worse horrors than those that uh the westernbacked autocrats of the region have inflicted upon the people of Yemen. Uh I cannot express enough my admiration uh for those uh inside Yemen and wherever they may be who literally risk their lives simply to go out

in the open air uh at a time of genocidal warfare being waged upon their country to express their support for the victims of a genocide. Now uh let's turn to the uh rather dramatic developments in the straight of Hormuz over the last few days. We'll begin with uh this report to sort of set the table. This was published on oilpric.com yesterday. World's top crude trader isn't ruling out $200 a barrel of

oil just yet. Uh and uh the article uh published by or authored by Tvetana Parisova reports that the top crude uh top crude trader VTO warns oil could surge to $200 per barrel if shipto- ship transfers near the straight of Hormuz are disrupted threatening vital Middle Eastern oil exports. The oil crisis becoming a shipping crisis as inefficient tanker transfers strain global vessel availability and push freight rates to unprecedented highs. Tanker earnings

have exceeded $500,000 uh dollars per day, while shipping costs from Saudi Arabia to Roderdam have soared from $2 to over $35 per barrel, adding pressure uh to fuel prices. And this is something we've been reporting on extensively, how uh this uh shipping crisis uh is uh adding enormously to the cost of oil. So we can't simply if we want to try to gauge uh the impact that this is having and will

continue to have on the global economy the events uh in the Persian Gulf we can't focus simply on how much oil is going out of the Persian Gulf. We also have to ask at what cost and more moreover are the methods being employed for uh delivering oil out of the Persian Gulf to export destin destinations are they sustainable and the answer uh to the former question is the cost is enormous and

the answer to the l latter question is a decisive no they are not sustainable now this of course raises the question well what is happening to shipto- ship transfers in the straight of mammoose well Reuters uh published this article two days ago on October 7th. Attacks on tankers sailing through the straight of Hormuz hit their highest last week of any week since the Iran war began. According to maritime security sources tracking

incidents amid a bigger export push by Gulf producers. Attacks, attempted attacks and harassment activity, including drone overflights, surveillance and hailing use using VHF radio by Iran's revolutionary guards have permiss persisted in the strait. Uh the US Navy led Joint Maritime Information Center said in a note on Sunday, quote, "These actions continue to demonstrate Iran's intent to assert presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure on transiting vessels." The JMIC said in

the week of September 28th to October 5th, there had been at least 12 attacks on oil, liqufied natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas tankers around the street of Hormuz, according to data from three maritime security sources who analyzed incidents based on information received from the area. So, and the other thing too, not only was that the most intense week of attacks on shipping in the straight of Hormuz during the entire uh

criminal war of aggression on Iran, uh, but in addition, you can see from this article that Iran continues to have a variety of methods to deter ships from going through the straight of Hormuz. It could just send drones overhead and put the fear of God into the captain of the vessel and the crew who may then, you know, uh, seek authorization from the, uh, owner of the vessel to turn back. Uh,

they can, uh, send out threatening messages. Often times that has been sufficient to turn them around. They can actually strike them. They can put mines in their path and create a considerable risk of a collision and explosion as a result of a mine. Uh there's any number of ways that Iran can control the straight of Hummus or traffic through it or at least 24 minutesgreatly diminish the volume of traffic through the

straight of Hormuz. And if in fact it was the case in September uh as the corporate media reported and certain maritime intelligence firms reported that uh the flow of oil out of the straight of Hormuz had almost reached pre-war levels. That can only be because Iran was allowing it to happen. And maybe it was allowing it to happen because uh and I think this is uh probably the case that uh some

of the uh the uh owners of these ships or the or the parties who had charted these ships were paying a significant toll under the table discreetly to the Iranian government. Uh in any case uh that is the situation as of the week of September 28 to October 5th. So now again this raises the question well what's happened since October 5th? quite a bit actually. Uh the most important developments in terms

of Iranian attacks is that a uh tanker was struck. This is on the 7th of October uh near Qatar. A tanker has reported being struck by multiple projectiles. Casualties have been reported. So, of course, when casualties are reported, that's usually not the case. Uh, in the overwhelming num majority of uh incident reports I've seen from UK UK MTO, there were no injuries uh to uh the crew uh but sometimes there are

and uh the fact that this happened not just very recently but happened uh at uh in to a tanker that was just offshore Qatar and this far from the straight of Hormuz. Uh again, this is going to put the fear of God into crews that are operating in this area. And uh and it's sending a message that uh no tanker no tanker in the Persian Gulf is straight uh is safe from

the straight of uh uh from the attacks of the Adanian military, even those that are in ports uh in the uh the uh on the western side of the Persian Gulf. Uh, and this hearkens back to something I've been saying for some time that even if by some miracle the US Navy were able to protect the vessels inside the straight of Hormuz. Uh, and they can't do that. There's no reason to

think that they can. The Nidan could simply strike the ports where the oil is being loaded. uh if they're able to strike US military bases throughout West Asia, which they clearly have been able to do, and cause catastrophic damage to a number of bases uh that are even further away uh than the western uh coastline of the Persian Gulf. Surely they can strike uh the port facilities on the coastline of the

Persian Gulf that are used to load oil onto these massive tankers. So, however you slice it, uh Iran uh has a vice grip of control over this entire body of water. Uh and it demonstrated that it not only extends to the Persian Gulf, but they struck a tanker off the coast of UAE uh the port uh and the uh port of Fuja. You can see this here uh on the satellite image

in the yellow circle. That's where the tanker was situated. Uh, and this was actually a VLCC, a very large crude carrier. I understand uh that uh it was being used in shipto- ship transfers. So, uh oil was being loaded onto it by vessels that had transited the straight of so yet again uh we see the range of uh the attacks when Irdan is minded uh to uh to go that far, it

can. And there's not a damn thing the US or any other military can do about it. And it seems to me that based on uh these most recent developments uh the strike on the uh tanker uh in Qatar or near Qatar and this VCC taking a hit off the uh coast of the United Arab Emirates. The Iranians are sending a clear message that we've had enough with these ship-to- ship transfers or

at least we're going to uh you know put the kaibos in a lot of them and greatly reduce the flow of oil out of the straight of Hormuz. And that of course takes us back to what uh this uh you know preeminent crude oil trader was saying. If uh they can bring that to an end or greatly disrupt the shipto- shift transfers, we may be looking at oil in excess of $200

a barrel. And if you think uh that uh the economy is suffering now, just imagine how much it'll be suffering if we get to that level of uh inflation and the price of crude oil. Chapter 6: US lack of retaliation So um let's then move to uh one other issue that is relevant to these uh attacks on tankers in the uh straight of Hormuz and in the surrounding area and that is

the complete and utter lack of a US retaliatory response. You may remember that back in August, uh, Sentcom announced with much fanfare that for every tanker the Iranian military struck. Uh, the US was going to strike an Iranian tanker. And for several days time, the it might have even gone on for a week or two. The United States military sentom was publishing videos of its attack on Iranian tankers. And I think

in one in one case at least, they actually sank the tanker and showed it at the bottom of the sea. Well, uh, there has been no, uh, retaliatory strike by the United States military, at least none that has been disclosed by the US military or credible sources, uh, since the, uh, Iranians uh, intensified their attacks on tankers in the straight of Hormuz. Why is that? Well, uh, I think, and this has

been reported, I believe it was by the New York Times, we talked about this in a prior episode, because if the US continues to strike Iranian tankers, the Iranians are going to demolish some more US military bases in the region. Uh, and in addition, uh, the freights for shipping, uh, the rates for shipping uh, uh, crude oil have gone through the roof. And the more tankers you take out of action, the

US takes out of action, the smaller the supply of these tankers will be. And if the uh demand for oil remains more or less constant, then uh the price for uh shipping crude oil will go even higher. Uh and I think there's something else going on here, and that is right now the US military is totally fixated on saving the Saudi autotocracy. uh because what is happening in Saudi Arabia and in

Yemen is a serious threat to the very existence of the Saudi autotocracy. So I have a feeling that the United States has more than it can handle with uh the uh you know attempt to uh protect its puppet in Saudi Arabia from an utter collapse. uh and so they're just trying to avoid uh for the time being I stress for the time being uh any further escalation with the Adani military. Uh

but at some point I remain absolutely convinced that there will be an escalation by the Trump regime. It just may be that uh uh you know between now and the midterm elections uh for these and other reasons, political reasons, political survival reasons, Trump has decided that he's just going to uh let the Iranians attack these vessels without any retaliation from the US military. Now, uh all of this, of course, uh is

putting upward pressure on the price of oil. Uh before I show you uh where that's at, uh I want to just bring this to your attention. On October 6, uh Reuters published an article titled, Chapter 7: Global oil supply concerns "The world has nearly burned through its oil stockpile buffer." Executives say, and uh this is from the body of the article. Less than six billion barrels of commercial inventories remain today with

the vast majority not practically available. So the system is already straining. Amin Naser, CEO of Saudi Arabia's state oil company, Aramco said at the energy intelligence forum in London. More than one billion barrels of oil have been released mainly from onshore commercial inventory since the start of this year's Middle East uh crisis, which was the last major tool in the box. Nasser said they've just been kicking that can down the road.

Uh well, guess what? Uh there ain't no more kicking. The International Energy Agency, the article goes on to uh state, which is the West Oil Watchdog, is preparing to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel to help alleviate soaring diesel prices, but is not clear if some of that total would include volumes from its record first million barrel released in March that hadn't hit the market yet. So, it might not

actually be 100 million barrels over and above the uh the initial uh agreement to release 400 million barrels. It took a lot of negotiations but it is 100 million Nasser said of the IEA decision. Inventories are reaching a stress level. Only 10% or less is available. That's why they struggle with 100 million barrels. World oil demand is about 102 million barrels per day. So even if they come up with a 100

million barrels of oil from their heavily depleted strategic reserves, uh that would be the equivalent of slightly less than uh one uh day of global oil consumption. The article goes on to say the loss of the oil markets buffers has made the market more fragile. Uh this is from Chevron Mark Worth's uh CEO Mark Worth. he said on Tuesday, adding that this has increased oil's price floor. Oil market turmoil will continue

beyond next year, executives said at the conference on Monday as it could take years to refill inventories on top of meeting global demand. The world will be suffering from this cataclysmic war launched by the United States and Israel for years to come and it's just a question at this stage of how bad that suffering is going to get. Chapter 8: Trump's market manipulation Now of course uh as these attacks intensified on

Saudi oil infrastructure and tankers in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, the straight of Hormuz, the price of oil began to rise sharply uh and uh it actually was approaching $107 uh a barrel, the price of Brent crude. And then the Donald uh pulled another rabbit out of the hat and issued this post on Truth Social yesterday. Just as the price of Brent crude was approaching $107 a barrel, we are

having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran, I want to make it clear to everybody that while Iran is in a very bad condition both economically and militarily. And while the blockade will remain in full force in effect with all oil flowing in record numbers of barrels through the Hormu straight uh 22 million barrels last night alone with not one barrel coming from or going to Idran. By the way, uh

this could all be bollocks. But anyways, he goes on and says, "We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon." Of course, Iran, by all accounts, does not have a nuclear weapon and has never had a nuclear weapon, a minor detail in the mind of that orange-haired lunatic. Uh, of course,

uh, because there's still some dumb money out there in the markets, uh, the price of oil immediately reacted shortly after I I screenshotted, uh, the price of oil uh, within, I think about an hour, maybe an hour and of Trump putting that post out. And it had gone down from uh you you can see if you look at the far right you see see at the bottom you can see October 8th

and then it shows price movements at the start of the day on October 8th and you'll see that that it rose sharply and then it suddenly dipped. It was up around 106 maybe more than 106 bucks and it went down all the way to about $103 uh just because Donald Trump flapped his gums again. Uh so the thing about dumb money folks is that eventually it evaporates and uh I as far

as I can tell uh so many people have lost money by trusting Donald Trump's pronouncements about negotiations with Iran uh that uh these uh dramatic announcements uh which are wholly unsubstantiated and utter fabrications of Trump's imagination they're having less and less of an impact uh both in quantitative terms and in temporal terms. terms. So the impact uh is not as great in when the in when the price drops. But in addition,

the price drop lasts uh much uh less time than it was in earlier phases of the war. And you can see here that right after that big dip happened on October 8th, uh the price shot up again to almost $105 a barrel. It's now trading at around $103 a barrel. Um but you know uh as we can see uh the kicking of the can down the road uh that is coming to

an end and uh potentially with catastrophic consequences uh for us all. Um one other detail I omitted to mention when I was talking about the ground offensive in Yemen. I I should bring this to your attention. The Middle East spec spectator uh reported today Chapter 9: Israeli military decline that uh the internet has been cut off in the city of Taiz and a full-scale offensive to liberate the second largest city in

Yemen is imminent within within the coming days. Uh that would be Aiden on the coast and the the stronghold of the Saudibbacked mercenaries. I cannot confirm uh that this report is accurate. Again, it would not surprise me in the slightest if it were. Finally, uh, a few words about the, uh, catatonic state of the Israeli military. Uh, the Israeli military, the child murdering genocidal forces of Israel reported today, uh, that, uh,

a terrorist in the Israeli military was killed and three others were severely wounded after their Humvey overturned in southern Lebanon. Uh the terrorist pictured here who was killed uh he was a captain in the Israeli military and the other three who were in the Humvey were transported to hospital for treatment. Uh I have no information as to whether all of them have survived or are likely to survive. In any case, uh

this follows hot on the heels of an incident in South Lebanon in which two US military vehicles of the genocidal Israeli military collided. Uh, and I believe the number of wounded there was eight. And that followed hot on the heels of two Israeli terrorists being severely wounded in South Lebanon when a grenade that they were handling or playing with, who knows, exploded. Uh, so, as I commented in a recent vessel uh,

uh, episode of Reason to Resist, you know, maybe it's not going to be necessary for Hezbollah to attack the Israeli occupying forces any longer. they'll just continue to take themselves out by their sheer carelessness and incompetence. And finally, there's this report Chapter 10: Conclusion from uh the Israeli media. Nearly 1 million Israelis called mental health hotline over three years of war. Uh this is from uh this is the Edon mental health

support hotline. and uh among teenagers and young adults. Inquiries involving suicidal thoughts intentions or actions have skyrocketed in the three years since terrorists stormed southern Israel, killed 1,200 people and kidnapped 251 people into Gaza. The three years of war have confronted us with a harsh and ongoing reality. Behind every call for help stands a person grappling with pain, loss, anxiety, loness, loneliness, or burnout, and often a combination of these. Typically, when

the uh the Israeli media reports on the burgeoning mental health crisis in Israel, uh what they uh do is they frame it as a consequence of attacks on Israelis. They never acknowledge or almost never that maybe why this country is suffering from a mental health crisis or at least a big part of the reason is because so many of its soldiers have been enlisted into a project of genocide and have engaged

in or witnessed acts of unspeakable sadism and barbarism. Maybe it's also the fact that at a certain level, Israelis have come to understand uh that they are the most detested society on God's green earth and it's only going to get worse from here. Uh in any case, my friends, that is my report for Reason to Resist today on October 9th, 2026. Please uh stay safe out there. Sync to video time

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Scott Ritter: BREAKING: Saudi Air Force Joins Massive Offensive at Bab al-Mandab
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Transcript

Chapter 1: Conflict in Yemen Hi everybody. Today is Friday, October 9, 2026 and our dear friend Scott Ritter is here with us. Welcome back. Thanks for having me. Last time we talk it's mostly was focused on the war between Iran and the United States and the war in Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine and Europeans. Today we're basically seeing something is the war is expanding itself in the

west Asia. Today is mostly talking about the straight of foremost together with bubble mandab because of the ongoing conflict between Saudi Arabia and and Yemen inside Yemen. And here is what's going on today. basically Ansaro started fighting and they're getting the western part of Yemen and the war is going on inside Tais in this part and in Marab as well. Marab is so important strategically for both sides the Saudi back forces

which basically are in the eastern part of Yemen and the southern part of Yemen and Ansora forces they're trying to capture Morab on one hand and Tais is on under little by little they're capturing this part here it's it shows that the region that is under the control of Ansora And the fight is going on here Scott in this in Thai east which is the second largest city of Yemen when it

comes to the population and importance. And the other point is the air strikes today what we've learned today is that Saudi back forces are mostly focused here in this region. They tried to capture this step of the um of the land close to the bubble manab and the fight was going on here and there strikes heavy air strikes in this area which failed to capture the land and when when it comes

to the you know they wanted basically they wanted to capture the Zubab airport and this part which is close to the bubble man dab. This is bubble mand dab and this is Mayune. Mayun is the that little island in the bubble mandab perm island and with the case of tais it's they're little by little they're capturing the land they're getting closer all these areas were captured by ana forces today they capture

al misre here and getting the western part we we still don't have that much of information about this part but then little by little they're getting closer to the city. On the other hand, we know that the forces, foreign forces are in Saudi Arabia. It was confirmed on CNN and Reuters reported more than 200 American commanders or American advisors, military advisors in Saudi Arabia helping them. They have Turkey, they have Pakistan.

We had France in the fight basically to Jedha. They came to Jedha to support the oil facilities in Jedha. And today they attacked and yesterday they attacked for the first time hit airplanes in in Riyad, the international airport in Riyad. They hit three aircraft there. Where do you see the conflict and the way that it's it is Chapter 2: Strategic defeat of Saudi expanding between Saudi Arabia and Yemen? Where do I

see it? Yeah, you're understanding of the way that Saudi Arabia is fighting. I see the strategic defeat of Saudi Arabia. Um, you know, their their economy is just being gutted right now. Uh, it's not just the denial of uh, you know, oil to the markets through this closure of the straight or moves. you know, they diverted 70% of their uh oil production to, you know, Yamu pipelines to take to the port

of Yamboo and then to ship out through Babel Mandev or up through the Suez Canal. That pipeline's not functioning. But moreover, the um Ensural has started attacking uh critical oil infrastructure. Not just oil storage, but they're starting to hit the wells themselves. They're destroying Saudi Arabia's capacity to produce oil. And that's the end of Saudi Arabia. You know, Saudi Arabia is an artificial nation. uh you know conjured together uh between a

deal with the devil struck between the al-s family and the Wahhabists. Um you know in 2014 when Muhammad bin Salman uh initiated this conflict against Ansarella um it was supposed to be a quick and easy victory uh so he could earn his military spurs and say I am a defense guy. I'm qualified to be king. Well it didn't work out that way. Uh you know he stepped on a lot of toes.

He put a lot of people in jail. Um, you know, there's a lot of princes right now in Saudi Arabia that don't like him, who are sharpening their swords as we speak. His head is not long for his shoulders. I think that Muhammad bin Salman will either be compelled to flee Saudi Arabia to one of his, you know, American villas or in London or he's going to literally lose his head. Um,

he's a failed leader of a failed nation state. U the Saudi Arabia there's nothing Saudi Arabia can reverse this. You can deploy as much French military resources as you want to. They can't stop the fact that Ensrala is decimating the Saudi oil infrastructure. There's no defense against this. Um and there's no amount of pain you can deliver on Ensala to make this stop. Um you know these people are committed to this

fight. uh this they're on the right side of history and they're about to do the world a great big favor by getting rid of MBS and hopefully collapsing that Saudi regime because this will lead to a cascade. I believe that you'll see one after the other the various you know Gulf um you know Arab schums uh emirates um likewise suffer a same fate as you know the people lose confidence. This is

the the the the Achilles heel for you know this entire region is the fact that these fake governments that were put in place by the British and the Americans you know these postc colonial entities um exist only because they are able to you know buy their way out of any problem that u you know they pay for American military protection which turned out to be an artifi artificial uh notion um given

what's happening with Iran today um they they didn't do anything to build up the their various societies. Uh they they enriched themselves, built infrastructure to please themselves, but they don't have real militaries. What does Saudi Arabia have? An air force? Well, let's just walk through this a little bit. You know, you say the air force is bombing targets down south. Well, you know, they have to collect intelligence. They, you know, the

United States is there to help them. We have satellites and all that stuff. And then we feed it into our own little terminal and we deliver target packages. Then they have to jin up the strike. They have to get the air crew, you know, trained, prepared, uh, briefed. They have to load up the fuel, fly the airplane. It takes a little bit of time for that plane to fly south out of

a Saudi airfield to come in and drop a bomb. Then it drops a bomb. It returns and has to take a photograph, battle damage assessment. Right. What What does Yemen have to do? Um, they they have to launch a drone and blow up a place. It's all internal. There's no external stuff. It's just done. Um the the the I've talked about the udaloop before, the observe the the the or the observe,

orient, decide, act, the decision-m cycle. Um Yemen's decision-making cycle is much tighter than that of Saudi Arabia. Then Saudi Arabia doesn't have the resources. They they don't have, for instance, ground military power capable of projecting. They operate with a mercenary army in the south that's being crushed as we speak. So now they're talking about bringing in Pakistani ground forces. How politically viable do you think it will be for Pakistan to send

30,000 troops to go to Yemen and suddenly have 5,000 of them dead? Because that's what's going to happen. Pakistan isn't going to defeat these people. This isn't, you know, um, this isn't the, you know, the Pushon region of Pakistan. They're not operating on home turf. Uh, they're going into a foreign country um, where they'll be isolated and killed, slaughtered. uh they have no chance of success. Pakistani air force isn't going to

succeed any more than the Saudi because they run into the same problems. What you're going to get is Pakistani aircraft destroyed on the ground and in the air. Maybe the politically uh disturbing images of a Pakistani pilot being captured which again will create political problems in Pakistan. As we speak, there's political unrest with people in the streets demanding the release of Imran Khan. Um, the last thing the Pakistani government needs is

to get the Pakistani military decisively engaged in a losing conflict against Yemen, which is the direction they're heading. What is Turkey going to bring to bear on this? Nothing. So, Saudi Arabia is by itself. There's a lot of people talking there, but nobody's going to save Saudi Arabia. If you put back up that map, the first map you put put out, you had three southern provinces. Um, the not this one, but

the the one of um Yeah. right there, Jazan Najan. Why do you think those are highlighted? Because those used to be part of Yemen. That's Yemen territory illegally occupied by Saudi Arabia and the Yemenes know it. And u Saudi Arabia could lose these territories um you know to to Ensala. So you know we're we're looking at the the distinct possibility of Saudi Arabia as we currently know it no longer existing. That's

how I see this happening. I don't see Saudi Arabia winning this. I see the destruction of Saudi Arabia, um the destruction of their government, and um I don't know what's going to replace it, but um it isn't going to be, you know, a uh political leader who's comfortable with um you know, kidnapping journalists, murdering them in consulates and dissolving their body in a in a vat of asset. But that's who NBS

is. We should never forget that. He's a murdering son of a Scott, today they said that they're not going to negotiate. They're not going to try to find some sort of political Chapter 3: Saudi regime vulnerabilities offramp for what's going on. I'm talking about Saudi Arabia said that because they want to recapture all those parts of the western and the southern part of Yemen which were under the control of PLC, Saudi

back forces. But looking at the battlefall is just going the opposite way. I don't know what is going on in the mind of the these people in Saudi Arabia and do they really believe or doubling down it doesn't mean since the war started they're losing land they're not and these forces mostly they're not that capable of fighting when we talk about the land looking at the land the way they're fighting in

the mostly in the western part of Yemen the land is just unbelievably difficult to get there and to fight on that land yeah no I And again, I I I really don't care what the Saudi government says. We just look at reality. I'm telling you right now, the Saudi government is in a very precarious situation. Um, and they're going to lose this war. And when they lose this war, it's going to

be the end of their government. That's the direction we're headed right now. Um, you can have the Saudis pump their chest, beat their chest, say they're going to do this, they're going to no negotiation. Well, Hitler didn't want to negotiate either till he put a bullet in his brain. I'm telling you right now that I think NBS is extremely vulnerable um to domestic political uh pressure that could be fatal to his

continued survival as the uh as the leader of Saudi Arabia and that Saudi Arabia itself is on very tentative ground. They started a war with an enemy that can't be defeated and um you know they they relying solely on proxies. this uh PLC uh group that they're running around it, they can't defeat Donala at all. They're going to be slaughtered. Uh Pakistan has no ability to send a meaningful number of troops

and sustain them. How are they going to get there? How are they going to logistically support them? I I guess they'll fly them in uh to to Aiden. Um and then what? Uh and will the Pakistani people put up with this? I mean, again, we have a Pakistan that's not politically stable at the moment. very popular former prime minister is in prison and people are demanding his release. The Pakistani people will

not put up with the Pakistani military being deployed in a losing conflict against Ansalla. So I I I I I just think this is going to end very very badly for Saudi Arabia. Do you see Donald Trump using ground forces in favor of Saudi Arabia? We don't have any ground forces. What are we going to do? take the Marines that are supposed to see seize Car Island and suddenly bring them in

and and and land them to do what? Engage the the the the ensla in battle and then American body bags come home and the American that's the exact opposite trajectory that Donald Trump wants to go. Um, and I do think people need to understand that, um, you know, yeah, there's that famous video of Donald Trump doing the sword dance with the Saudis, you know, running around thinking he's some sort of Saudi

tribesman, but there's also bad blood between these two guys. Um, you know, NBS openly mocked Donald Trump um and um, you know, humiliated Donald Trump when he came uh during the pandemic and to ask for Saudi Arabia to, you know, uh, release more oil to help offset problems or to I think to shrink, I forget what it was, but, you know, to impact its u its oil production plan. He was told

by NBS, "No, we're not we're not doing that." Um, you know, NBS says, you know, that the that it, you know, Saudi Arabia is going to be the the great power surpassing the United States culturally and Europe culturally. No, NBS, you're just going to be a headless corpse shoved into some ditch someplace. That's your future. Um, Trump isn't going to come to the assistance of NBS. I believe there's just a lot

of bad blood there. And Trump holds a uh holds a grudge better than just about anybody. What's the difficulty, Scott, today is that it doesn't seem that Saudi Arabia has some sort of defensive air defense forces or interceptors to support them because looking at the map here, they were hitting Yemen was hitting the eastern part of Saudi Arabia, the western in Jedha, which we talk about the French forces being there. And

today Colonel Wilkerson mentioned maybe these French forces went from Djibouti to Jedha. But Ansola in the last in the last they hit both Jedha and Dam which is the Abk oil facility here and here the oil facility and they hit Riyad. We know that they hit the station number two in the east west pipeline. We don't know still if it's back working or not because today Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia told

Europeans they're going to provide them with energy that they promised them to provide and in November. It was reported today by Bloomberg. We still don't know what is the situation with the East West pipeline. I thought that the the pipeline is not working. We I cannot confirm what is the situation there. But we know that all these attacks with ballistic missiles in Riyad, in the Mam, and in in Jedha, they're hitting

the targets. It means that the air defense system is not that capable of defending Saudi Arabia despite having all these forces inside Saudi Arabia trying to help them. Chapter 4: The failed 'Mecca Pact' Yeah. No, I mean again, you can pour in 40,000 Pakistani troops, you can pour in 5,000 French troops, but um you know, how many interceptors do they have? And um and how good are they? Uh you know, I

think the missiles being fired by are high quality missiles with precision strike capabilities. uh they may possess similar maneuvering capabilities that the Iranian missiles that were successful against the United States, Gulf Arab allies, Israel possess. And um you know, Saudi Arabia's got nothing. They've got you know, Patriot batteries with Pack 2 missiles. Um they're out of Pack 3es. The United States isn't going to give them anymore because we need them. Um

France is bringing in inferior u missile uh defense capabilities. Um insufficient to the task. And how do you defend a pipeline, you know, because you can't. And so the pipelines are going to be cut at will. Um that's the bottom line. There's no literally nothing that can be done to defend it. Um you know, even if Saudi Arabia had effective air defense, you know, they put it against Riad or Nam or

um as you said, Jedha, but the reality is how do you defend a pipeline? There will always be a gap through which uh you know the um the Ensrala drones or or strike capabilities are going to be able to to to to shoot um and they'll hit the pipeline, interdict the pipeline. This pipeline isn't a symbol of strength. It's a it's a symbol of weakness on the part of Saudi Arabia. Um

because it's it's they've this is their future. They've bet on it and they've lost. So, um, yeah, I I just don't see there's that there's anything that can be done to, uh, to change the trajectory that we're on. I think we're looking at a complete Unsella victory. I um I I'll I've said it before and I'll say it again. Not only do I think that NBS's head's going to be removed from

his shoulders, but um I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Ensala vehicles driving down the streets of Riad as the capital of Saudi Arabia fell. Um this is something the Saudis have always worried about. Back in 1990, they were very concerned about Yemen intervening on the side of uh Iraq. um you know the and if their military gets is decisively engaged and uh and and the tribes refuse to rally to NBS

um we could be looking at you know the decisive defeat of Saudi Arabia um on the part of Ansella there there's something similar in Saudi Arabia happening which to to what has happened in Ukraine Scott because we know since the war in Ukraine started they use these mercenaries different tanks different air defense system, different weapons going inside Ukraine to help them. And we we are witnessing Saudi Arabia basically fighting with mercenaries

if we can because these Saudi back for these are mercenaries. They were they're paying these people to fight inside Yemen and we have you know they're talking about Pakistani forces getting in, Turkey getting in because these are different systems. Turkey is mostly focused with the Russian and NATO sort of military equipment. Pakistan is more close to China. They have the weapon system close and they're coming in and they're trying to help

Saudi Arabia. I don't know how is that going to be difficult to bring this sort of, you know, all these pieces together. I said this from the very beginning. Um, what is the Mecca pact? It's three nations that have nothing in common coming together to try and recreate a NATO, a Middle East NATO because everybody kept article five, article five, article five, article five. Well, is but then h not really. This

is a pre-existing condition. It's like thinking you have health insurance only to find out that they they redefine whatever illness you get as pre-existing. We don't have to insure you. Um the other thing is, you know, one thing that we we haven't talked about yet is that um you know, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates just don't get along. They don't like each other. Um and yet these forces, these uh

you know, mercenaries that are fighting, they're they're not not just Saudi backed, but they're UAE backed. And so you're you're seeing Ensrala able to, you know, exploit this internal tension that takes place. Turkey, I again remind people that Turkey has forces deployed in Qatar. Why? Why are there thousands of Turkish troops in Qatar? Because Saudi Arabia threatened Qatar with invasion and the Turks landed and said, "Over our dead bodies." So Turkey

has been, you know, military aligned against Saudi Arabia for some time now. When was the last time Turkey and Saudi Arabia held a joint military exercise? The answer is never. Um and so now Turkeykey's what? Going to come rolling in and become integrated into you know whatever Saudi operations center they have um logistically how do you sustain that? Uh the same thing with Pakistan. When was the last time Saudi Arabia and

Pakistan, you know, Pakistan provides mercenary troops, but I'm talking about, you know, now we're talking about, you know, this isn't about providing Pakistani manpower under Saudi command. They're talking about a Pakistani expeditionary force to coordinate with whom? Because once you get on the ground in Yemen, some of that ground belongs to the United Arab Emirates. So now Pakistan has to cut through th that red tape as well. This is an organizational

nightmare. It's a logistical disaster waiting to happen. um it just isn't going to happen. The Mecca pact is an empty pact. Um you may have command groups coming together, but just because you have people, you know, drawing lines on a chalkboard doesn't mean that suddenly you have a plan that's implementable. They've never prepared for this. They've never trained for this. They don't have the systems in place. They don't have the infrastructure

in place. And they're supposed to be making this up on the run while the forces on the ground are being slaughtered. you know, Tais is going to fall and it's never going to be recaptured. Um, Marib is going to fall. It's never going to be recaptured. By the time the Pakistanis get their act together, Aiden may fall. Um, and so, you know, this there's nothing there, Nea. That's my assessment. There's nothing

there. a bunch of people running around, command staffs, you know, barking, but there's there's no military infrastructure there to uh respond to the barks. Chapter 5: US role in the region Do you see something happening on the other side of the of the Red Sea here? I'm talking about let's assume they try to help from the other side here from from Djibouti, Eratraa here, Ethiopia or Somali land, Somalia. Well, I think

I think Djibouti is your biggest bet because there's an American military presence there that includes Marines and um joint special operators. Um, you know, the United States in theory could seize some of these islands um that that are currently occupied by Ensrala. Um, but the the bottom line is all that does is, you know, all it is is kicking the hornets's nest. Right now, the United States has a deal with Ensala

that American shipping and American affiliated shipping isn't going to be harassed going through the Bob Menddev Straits. And I think the United States wants to um you know keep that going as much as possible. Um you know for the United States to get involved to get you know even if we occupied an island put the American flag on top of it uh you know Yemen missiles are still going to hit ships

and it's going to close it down. It's going to make things worse. I I don't see any meaningful intervention on the part of the United States. I I think this is going to be one of those situations where we sit back and we you know we've done this before. We watched the Shaw fell. I mean, in 1975, how many people thought, "Oh, the Shaw's on his way out." In 1977, how many

people thought the Shaw's on his way out? Hell, in 1978, Jimmy Carter didn't think the Shaw was on his way out. It was until the Shaw was on his way out that people went, "Oh my god, the Shaw's gone." Um, right now, I think there's a bunch of people running around thinking, "Well, NBS is going to be there forever. Why not? He's Saudi. I mean, he's got all the money. He's got

everything." And um I don't think the world's ready for the reality that MBS is toast. I I don't see Ensala being beaten and I don't see Ensala backing down. um they have made a strategic shift into infrastructure destruction and um you know that's what happens when you're you know a nation that's been subjected to the horrors that uh that you know the that the unsala movement uh has been subjected to you

know starvation of its children have been going on for more than a decade now uh they've absorbed so much pain that they're immune to any additional pain being um you know you inflicted on them. Uh they are ready now for victory. And victory I think in their mind means I think that they've made the decision that Saudi Arabia is going to be destroyed. And I think they're ready to destroy Saudi Arabia.

And I don't think there's anything the rest of the world can do to stop them. What it was reported that Donald Trump told Saudi Arabia, "We're going to provide you with intelligence, with the targets, with everything, but we're not going to get involved on the ground." Do you think that at the end of the day, Donald Trump would have some sort of leverage or would would is willing to experience or to

show his leverage on Saudi Arabia to end the conflict or because the way that I'm talking about because of the oil market, because of the diesel, because of what's going on with the energy market. So if you go logical, you may say that Donald Trump would benefit from ending the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. On the other hand, we know what how what is the perception of Israel in it's somehow

complicated. What how do you see geopolitically and politically the region when it comes to the way that Donald Trump sees that? Again, I think that there's a um a perception in Washington DC and Tel Aviv that NBS is forever. Um I don't think that the United States has grasped the Chapter 6: Incidents in UK and Dubai new geopolitical reality that Ensala is committed to a war of regime change in Saudi Arabia.

NBS started this war. Now NBS is going to go. I think that's the strategic objective of Unsella. um they have made a a shift in their targeting that is decisive in nature that's seemingly designed to destroy the economy of Saudi Arabia. When the economy is destroyed, I believe it will trigger regime change. I think it will trigger some sort of uprising inside Riad uh to remove NBS from power. I don't think

Washington DC is going to be awoken to this fact until one morning they wake up and as I said the head of Muhammad bin Salman will be lofted a 28 minuteshigh by somebody shouting Allahbar. Um but this is this isn't going to end well for for MBS and I don't think anybody who supports Saudi Arabia today is prepared for this reality. I think it's going to take them by surprise like the

fall of the sha of Iran took everybody by surprise. God there last week there was some sort of you know they said they immediately removed the aircraft you know I'm talking about B1 bombers from the United Kingdom and they said that Iran is trying to attack them they detained five people in in the United Kingdom and they said they were first they said they tried to do something to sabotage something inside

the American base Then I'm talking about Raph Fairford base and later on they released them on bail which was one of the major 29 minutesquestion if that was the case any terrorists or trying to sabotage something that big so they can they could keep them under arrest but they released them and but later on immediately the United States Donald Trump has decided to remove the B1 bomb bomb from the from the

United Kingdom. What was that? What do you make of what has happened? That were were governed by insane people. My understanding is that uh the group that was ca captured were fuel smugglers uh that the British know them. They know who they are. They know this and that uh you know we have people in the United States u you know Sarah Adams is one of them. She's an online personality, former CIA

operative, uh, analyst, not operative, um, who worked in Benghazi during the, you know, the the when Ambassador Stevens, I believe, was killed. And she's now become this big Islamophobe who's out there, you know, basically seeing a uh, terrorist threat where, you know, everywhere. And she and others are like, "Oh my god, this is horrible." And Donald Trump, unfortunately, listens to these people. And um you know everybody has the wishful thinking that

uh Iran is trying to you know carry out you know strikes you know against American resources using terrorists etc. And so we already concluded that this was a terrorist attempt a terrorist attack by Saudi Arabia or by Iran against our forces. And when the British who are bound by the rule of law uh you know said no these are just fuel smugglers. We know who they are. There's nothing new here. um

you know we responded by withdrawing the aircraft to send a signal uh to um you know to to the Brits. You know that's what's going on. This is just stupidity. It's just what happens when you allow ignorance to define your uh your policym. Chapter 7: US-Iran geopolitical stance I don't know if you we had another thing happen in the fly Dubai airplane going from Dubai to to Israel which they said a

guy an Israeli guy plumber he saved everybody on that plane. What was that? Was that an attack? What is your perception of was the whole case? Is that helping Benjamin Net inside Israel? The whole story behind that airplane. I don't know enough. I mean, I somebody's gonna have to do the physics of this. Um I you know when we when we take a look at um what happened in um go back

to 911 the um the flight that was going to strike the uh capital that got uh hijacked and you you know the the passengers fought back and they uh you know breached the cockpit and they were trying to gain control of the aircraft and um the aircraft crashed. Um by all accounts uh the maneuvering that was done by the um the non-pilot person at the uh you know was very disruptive and

then once the plane hit a certain angle of descent um the gforces made it impossible for any coherent action to take place. So now now we suddenly have a Air Dubai flight where physics doesn't apply. I mean with the black box, what I'd like to see now with the blackbox is to release the specific flight data. Um it can't be classified unless it's all a fake anyways. Uh but release it, let

it get into a flight simulator and then have somebody do the physics of this um physically. What would it take for a plumber to get out of his seat and physically make his way to the cockpit under the various physical duresses of G forces of a plane in rapid descent? Is this even possible? Because remember, as you are descending, um you're not going forward, you're being propelled backwards. Acceleration physics. So, he's

fighting against that already. So, none of this makes sense. I'm not going to sit here and say it's all fake, but it certainly doesn't look to be real. Um, you know, the the composition of the crew, the the what I do know is that Benjamin Netanyahu is desperate uh in the leadup to this election that's coming up in Israel. And we also know that he, you know, is a man who now

has a situation where um, you know, he's being called out for what he did or didn't do on October 7th. Um, and so this is a man desperate to change the narrative and 34 minutessuddenly as a new hero, the plumber. Um, I mean, it gives a butt crack a whole new meaning of a word. Everybody's now going to put on plumber pants and squat down before the sink and and look like

a plumber. Um, because they're the new standard, the gold standard, the plumber standard. Um, this none of it makes any sense. But before I totally shut the door on it, look, this science is science. All right, let's get the blackbox. Let's program that in and let's see what the GeForce generation ca, you know, is from this from the pattern and let's see if the plumber could have done what the plumber says

he did or what people say the plumber did. Um, none of this makes any sense. And today UAE prosecutors say the Omani co-pilot as you know there were two guys two pilots the the main pilot which was a an Indian pilot and the Omani guy which stabbed the Indian guy and he said that the co-pilot that attempted to hijack flight Dubai flight on September 30th plan to crash it into a passenger

terminal at Israel's Bengurian airport in a suicide attack inspired by 9/11. This is what they put out today. The UAE prosecutors put out, right? But now, okay, go ahead. Ready? So, I'm now the Omani co-pilot and I want to crash it. So, do I a go into a suicidal dive over the deserts of Saudi Arabia, knowing that if I do gain control of the aircraft as I approach Israel, they're going to

shoot me down? or B, wait until I'm on final approach to Riion. And when my pilot gives me the instructions to throttle back or flaps, I elbow the face, flip the plane down, dive straight into Burian, and achieve my mission result. None of this makes any sense. This is this it doesn't make any sense at all. None of this makes any sense. Yeah, there Scott the when it comes to the yesterday

we learned from the Iranian foreign minister. He said that the negotiations not the negotiating messages are going back and forth between Iran and the United States and the latest proposal of the United States is being considered or Iran is thinking of it to respond to the latest proposal. On the other hand, we had New York Times and Axis reporting that the United States is preparing an attack on Iran, a three-day attack,

intensive attack on Iran, and they coordinated that with Israelis. Donald Trump yesterday came out after these two articles and said, "Now we're not going to attack Iran." When you look at the situation for Benjamin Netti, I think there is a lot going on inside Israel and inside the United States which are important in terms of the calculation on the part of Donald Trump. Is that going to benefit him inside the United

States? Is that going to benefit I would I would say even Benjamin the case of Benjamin Na is more important than his case in the United States. Is that going to benefit Benjamin Net inside Israel? How do you see these different contradictory contradictory you know comments coming out on one side we're going to attack Donald Trump says no we're not going to attack well understand Israel is not able to attack and

sustain the attack without the help of the United States. So if the United States hasn't greenlighted and remember United States green lit everything Israel has done up to date. Israel didn't do anything by itself. we green lit it. Uh the June war, Israel couldn't have done without the United States providing the the defense of Israel. Um the the the the the joint effort that took place, you know, from February onwards, you

know, remember it was Israel that said we have to have this thing stopped because we're getting pounded. Um nothing's changed. Israel isn't going to attack Iran on its own. That's a a certainty. And that that means that they're not going to attack Iran if the United States isn't going to play ball. Donald Trump may, you know, may attack Iran at some point for some. I mean, Donald Trump saying, "I'm not going

to attack him before the midterm is meaningless. I mean, you know, this is Donald Trump who attacked Iran while they were negotiating over a solution to the nuclear problem, which continues to befuddle the United States to this day." Um, I think what we see with Donald Trump's statement is a reflection of the fact that he's doing his best to reduce the pressure on international oil markets. by by saying I'm not going

to strike Iran, he's trying to create a situation where the price of oil falls um as you know confidence in you know the avoidance of conflict takes place. Um you know you combine that with Europe's emergency release of 50 million barrels of diesel and other oil reserves uh you know you you you see an effort to you know reduce the pressure on on international oil prices. But then you have Yemen taking

Saudi Arabia out of the market altogether and um you know changing that um you know what happens if Trump's gambit fails and the prices go up and we see an absolute economic catastrophe hit the United States on the eve of midterm elections. You know then will Donald Trump strike Iran before or after? Um who knows? Um the the problem is that we're betting on the collapse of the Iranian economy. This is

what the United States is betting on. We believe that Iran's economy will collapse and will regime, you know, and that that that looming collapse will force their compel the Iranian government into making critical concessions both in terms of the straight war moves but also in the nuclear field. That's what we're betting on. And so, you know, right now that seems to be the only thing we have left. We don't have any

military pressure that can be brought to bear. We cannot defeat Iran militarily. That's just a statement of fact. Um so, what we're going to do is continue to apply pressure on Iran to include some military-based pressure um in the hopes that Iran collapses economically and then politically. Um, you know, and it's one of those great untested theories. Who's going to who's going to break first? The um the American public. We have

a midterm election coming up that um this could be suicide on the part of Donald Trump because that the House, I believe, is going to go decisively to the Democrats. Again, it's still October. We have a month to go. But um you know that the the Republicans are in danger of losing 41 minutesthe Senate and maybe losing to the Senate to margins where Donald Trump's impeachment could become a conviction. Remember Donald

Trump is pissing everybody off. Sorry for my language, but um you know even traditional Republicans who would have defended you you know they don't want to go down with the ship. Um, and so this could be fatal to Donald Trump's presidency. Literally fatal. Um, or it could be fatal to American democracy if you know what happens at the end of the election when it appears that Trump lost both the House and

the Senate. Remember, they don't get sworn in until January 1st, he has some time now to declare a constitutional crisis and maybe annole the election and maybe do something because he's literally insane. We have an insane man at the helm. Um, you know, but this is where we're at right now. Um, I I think Trump understands that he's in a world of hurt because of this economic situation. Uh, people have told

him that we don't have a military solution to this problem. So, he's trying to take that off the board. But again, you know, wouldn't be the first time a nation's gone to war to try and um, you know, get the get the domestic public uh, distracted by what's going on. And um I I I don't take it as a given as a given that the United States won't attack Iran uh prior

to the midterms. Chapter 8: Iran's economic resilience Yeah. As you mentioned, they're trying, Scott, to isolate Iran from all sides. They put pressure. We know the situation with GCC countries here with Iraq. They tried to force the Iraqi government to cooperate to you know no airplane, no nothing coming in and out from Iraq to Iran and from Iran to Iraq that has filled and we know that Iran is just at least

in Najaf. Najaf is one of the most important cities inside Iraq which is so much connected with the Shia faith and that's why you know they you know they have these flights going from Iran to Iraq. But the other point is as it was mentioned multiple times on this podcast that Iran the most important partners of Iran today is Russia which they're increasing the number of ships cargo ships which used to

be 100 which used to be 127 127 right now is 211 between Russia and Iran and more than 30% of the Iranian imports today as we talk is coming from you know this connection between Iran and Russia and the flights between Iran and China they're still intact nothing has happened on that front so the isolation of Iran the way that Scott Bessant is talking about it it doesn't seem that is working

they they have the blockade in the straight of for on the straight for most on on the Iranian ports it's far away from the Iranian ports today than you know because they were closer to the Iranian borders before since Iran attacked them by these new missiles, cruise missiles, anti-hship missiles, they moved the air and aircraft carrier far away from the Iranian borders and how do you see the blockade and the way

it seems that the Trump administration are so confident in the way that they're pressuring the Iranian economy as though they're going to crush it, you know, Well, I mean, one of the things is um you know, and I I have to be careful here, too, because I I'm not an expert on the current reality of the Iranian economy. I've studied it. Um I have a feel for things. I can name names,

name players, and all that stuff, but you know, I can't sit here and speak on behalf of the uh the Iranian consumer, uh you know, where they are. Um If a normal western society was subjected to the kind of economic pressures that Iran is currently be subjected to, um you know, basic causal analysis could predict um severe political problems for the government uh in power. Um, and so what we're doing, I

believe, is that we're mirror imaging how we believe those conditions would play here at home onto Iran. uh and you know when I hear people like uh you know professor Morandi speak and others um you know they have confidence that I you know even as difficult as it is that this will not bring about the collapse of Iran that the Iranian society will hold etc. But you know, Donald Trump is ignorant

as the day is long about Iran. So is the people surrounding him. So is the CIA and so there's a lot of wishful thinking right now. Um I can't be dismissive of it because again I'm not an Iranian consumer. I don't know what's going through their mind. What is their breaking point? If indeed there is a breaking point. I do know that when you have a society that has gathered every night

in town square during the massive bombardment of their cities daring the United States to bomb them um that they don't fear death. Um and therefore I think they're a little bit more resilient than we we know. I also think that Iran is a nation that's been dealing with the sanctions and the consequences of sanctions for some time now. Um you know this economic crisis didn't just spring up on them. They know

it's coming. they know what the root causes are. Um, and they're making um, you know, adjustments. I think one of the big adjustments that's unseen in the west is the gray economy. Um, you know, we tend to focus on, you know, official economy. And so if you have hyperinflation and products aren't available and all but you know there's a gray economy that's barter uh driven um hard currency driven um you know

and you know people find a way to survive um and the government I think is capable of making adjustments gray market adjustments domestically to to encourage this survival. So I think that this is my personal belief. I can't sit here and write a PhD thesis on uh on it, but my personal belief is that Iran is far more resilient than than Scott Besson and Donald Trump have been led to believe and

that uh the likelihood of Iran collapsing through the economic pressure is um very small indeed. and that uh Iran will continue to work with its regional and uh global allies to find workarounds to the economic um isolation that the United States is attempting to impose on them. You mentioned the Caspian Sea is one. Um you know, we we have a situation now where um Iraq is going to be selling oil to

Syria. I'd be delivering 100,000 barrels a day or something of that nature. um wouldn't surprise me if um some of those barrels were Iranian barrels as well making their way out. So um I just think the Iranians are far more resourceful. And I also think that it's in the strategic interests of Russia, China, and others to to you know preserve the um the Iran as it's currently configured. And so they're not

just going to sit back and do nothing. I think there's some creative arrangements being made um visav Russia um and China that is being used to help prop up um Iran and these are going to be um impervious to any American sanctions pressure. Chapter 9: The war in Ukraine Scott, you've been to Russia. I I think you have fresh information about what's going on with the case of Ukraine because there are

a lot of you know speculations in basically in the mainstream media and somehow getting to the alternative media as well picturing Russia as time goes by Russia is weakening. Russia is not doing the way that it was doing before and Ukraine is getting its momentum. What is the situation today on the battlefield? The way that Russia is controlling the ports in Odessa and Nikolai with the blockade on Ukraine and fighting on

the battlefield and dealing with Ukrainian drones. I think Russia for the first time has instituted a strategic air campaign that has um nation killing capacity and that's their intent. Um, that's just a blunt way of saying that Russia is going to destroy Ukraine. Um, and along with it, they'll destro, you know, when I say destroy Ukraine, they're destroying their economic potential. We see that with the closure of the Black Sea fleet.

We see that with the denial of Iran's or Ukraine's ability to get grain to market. We see that with the total uh elimination of um of Ukraine's steel manufacturing capability. um 7% of their economy is gone. Now 70% of aronomy is gone. Uh they you know timing is everything. Uh the the head of one of the founders of uh of Firepoint the uh you know the Ukrainian drone making factory that now

turned into a you know a a missile production. She bragged about how they were launching missiles. They just app and that same night she bragged Russia took out their entire missile production capabilities. Um, so this is bad. They're they're they're attacking the bridges across um you know that that that in Kiev. These are strategic bridges. If they go down, and they have gone down, they're not operating effectively. Uh you basically divide

the country into two. Um they're attacking bridges in Zaporosia. They're attacking bridges elsewhere. U we're talking about the total isolation of Ukrainian forces at the front logistically there. And um then then the Russians basically are just grinding them through. You know, Ukraine spent a lot of time and effort to launch a counterattack in the area of Lemon. Um and if you've been watching the social media, you know, it's amazing the Ukrainian

fantasies. Arrows arrows. Russia pulled back nothing. And then when you look at the reality, you see the Ukrainians punched a slight gap, a indentation on on the uh on the Russian forces who withdrew, slaughtered the Ukrainians, and now they're back to advance. And the Ukrainians lost tens of thousands of their best assault troops. Um you know, this is a tough war. Um it's not easy. We're not going to pretend that uh

you know, Russia isn't paying the price, but Russia's not paying the price. the people that start talking about Russian casualties. Uh I mean I wish you know I I would just love to get Ben Hajes on stage and talk to him about kill pro probability. What's the PK factor here Benny baby? Because you used to do that as a general. You know all about artillery uh you know firepower projection uh the

PK of each round given terrain uh weather considerations, density of forces. Um, how do you kill 45,000 Russians a month? You can't. It's physically impossible, Ben. Physically impossible. Ukraine lacks the capacity to do this. You live in a fantasy world. There are no Russian human wave tactics. We know this. The Russians come in in groups of threes, sixes, nines, 12 at the max. And, you know, they come in with drone support,

artillery support, and they chew you up sector by sector by sector. And then when you counterattack, they withdraw back because as they advance, they factor in in-depth defense in case of a counterattack. They absorb your punch, kill everybody, and then continue the advance. Is Russia suffering losses? Yes. This is highintensity conflict. But the the fantasy world that these people in, you know who is losing 27 to 30,000 up to 45,000 a

month? Ukraine. Why? because the Russians do have the PK projection capacity to kill this many people and they are doing so. Um they're slaughtering the Ukrainians. Ukrainians are running out of manpower. To the last Ukrainian has become a reality. So you know what what what I would say is that um they've totally I mean it's curious. I um I I spent a lot of time looking at the recruitment posters, you know,

because I didn't go to the front. I I spent time in the Arctic. I spent time uh in Kenigrad and I spent time in St. Petersburg and Moscow. Um but I was looking at recruiting posters. Um you know, you have a standard recruitment pitch. Um I think 3.9 million rubles uh a year salary uh plus a signup bonus. Uh a million rubles is about $12,000. So, we're looking at, you know, about

$45,000. So, for all the idiots out there going, "The Russians have to bribe people." Have you taken a look at recruitment bonuses for American service members, um, $45,000 is a is a decent salary. It's a good salary, especially in wartime. People are signing up. Russia has no shortage of uh recruits. But then there's other things. For instance, uh, in St. Petersburg uh where you have a high concentration of um you know

high IQ uh people um they're doing a specific drone recruitment and now we're talking like 7.2 million uh rubles plus a big sign on bo bonus. Um, and you know, you see the Russian Ministry of Defense as it talks about what's going on. Increasingly, the um the bulk of the uh the damage being done to Ukraine is through drones and you need drone operators. The Russians have said what I've been saying

all along, it's the most dangerous job in the Russian army, drone operator, because Ukrainians are trying to hunt them down and kill them. But you know what? The Russians are hunting down, killing Ukraines, too. Uh, right over here, I have a a banner from um from uh Rubicon. Rubicon's whole job is hunt down and kill Ukrainians. Uh, which one? Show us which one. We didn't see it. Oh, I mean, I'd have

to pull it off, but uh, yeah, it's it's right here behind the Archangels one, the black one there. Yeah, I see. But u but, you know, Rubicon's job is to, you know, kill uh, Ukrainian drone operators. Uh, where where the Ukrainians come in and they they start projecting their drone power to build a wall of drones and all this stuff. Russia just brings in a Rubicon detachment who comes in and they

basically destroy the Ukrainian drone infrastructure. Once you know about drone warfare, it's no longer, you know, this dark science. Drones are pieces of equipment. They require infrastructure, definable, discernable infrastructure to work. And once you have are able to lay out the battlefield, find the battlefield, and you know what you're looking for, you you're able to identify logical places where uh command centers are. And then you basically go down and and um

and kill them. Unfortunately, I got somebody at the door, so that means we're probably going to have to call the interview. So, okay. Thank you. Thank you.

[admin]

Robert Barnes: BREAKING: Trump Announces Massive Russian Diesel Deal After Call With Putin
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Transcript Search transcript Search transcript Chapter 1: Trump's diesel announcement Hi everybody. Today's Friday, October 9, 2026 and our dear friend, our brother Robert Barnes is here with us. Welcome back, Rob. Glad to be here. Let me start with I I put it breaking news. Some some of our audience are why is that breaking news? Because Donald Trump said it's a breaking news. Let me bring that up. And it says, Robert, that

Russia has agreed to release or to help with the shortages with the situation that we have with the shortages in in terms of the diesel. It says that they're going to release based on what Donald Trump said. He had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And in that phone call, it seems that he Russia said that well Putin said that they're going to release over 300 million 300,000 tons immediately

in order to help the shortage of diesel in the market immediately. I I don't know if it's it means today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow. And he said in November they're going to additional 500,000 tons and shortly after November he mentions 1 million 1 million tons and later on he says 3 million tons going to add it seems that which is 3 million tons is mostly it would be dependent on the

conditions of Russian refineries. As you know, the the situation in Russia is is different because of the Ukrainian drone attacks and they have the you know the the the ban on the export of diesel in Russia which is until the until the end of this month. So, I don't know why what's that because the ban goes to the 2 minutesto October 30th this month and he says immediately they're going to release

300,000 tons. The problem is something else is that assuming 4.8 8 million tons that Donald Trump is talking about in total that he's talking about with with the case of this phone call. The demand the global demand is roughly 28.7 million barrels a day. It's not anywhere close to what Donald Trump is talking about. And the other point is Russian export capacity. Russia's export capacity before all this madness happening with the

Ukrainian drones and what Ukraine is doing was 800,000 to 900,000 battles a day. This is if Russia goes with the full capacity. So not only that, Robert, the the barriers or the problems with what Donald Trump is talking about is not only the situation is totally dependent on the refineries. As you know the the the energy secretary right said that the refining capacity has been reduced because of the war in the

west Asia. We know all these countries they have their capacity of refining they they cannot use it because of the conflict or in full capacity they're not going to be able to use it. What what is that? What is going on when you look at Donald Trump today and he tries to Chapter 2: Geopolitics and economics convince the people that he's going to resolve the issue with diesel which is the major

issue right now in the United States with the midterm elections. He didn't mention that if 500,000 tons is going to be before the midterm elections or after the midterm elections. Go ahead. Your understanding. I mean, I would wait to get confirmation from the Russians as to any of it because I think it was two weeks ago, [cough and clears throat] maybe just a week ago, he said he had a deal with

Russian Ukraine that Ukraine would stop all attacks on UK uh Russian diesel produ production for the same purpose. And the result was uh Ukraine was attacking within hours of him making that announcement. And they couldn't even make that announcement without the CIA participating and enabling those attacks. So this is his desperate efforts to convince people that he hasn't created a economic quagmire with his war in Iran uh that is mostly represented

as you point out right now in diesel cost but isn't limited to diesel cost and he's the polling numbers are getting worse and worse. So, this is Trump being desperate, saying, "Don't worry, everything's about to be solved. Please vote Republican and don't send people up that are going to impeach me uh uh afterwards." The But I you can't have any confidence in its accuracy because he's been inaccurate on these statements now

week after week after week concerning this precise issue. Yeah. The the case of Diesel, it's not just Diesel trying to do something about it. is the we we've learned different you know ideas about what would be the situation between Iran and the United States. New York Times as you know Axis reported that they're preparing for three day intensive attacks on Iran in order to I don't know he wants to postpone the

midterm elections or maybe Benjamin Net wants to postpone that in [laughter] yeah that that's where that's coming from. So, the Trump has been telling people, "Don't worry, I we're not going to go back in before the midterms because he knows every time escalation occurs, his numbers go down and Republican numbers go down for the House, the Senate, for governorships, for state legislatores, you name it." And I mean, to give people an

idea right now, you can just track where his own packs are spending money. He's spending money in congressional districts that he won just in 2024 by as much as 20 points, 15 points, 17 points, 18 points. That's how much trouble. He's spending money in Arkansas. He's spending money in South Florida. He's spending money in part, you know, uh in the in the the district of Nevada that has been ruby red for

like 50 years. So the because of that he needs to tell convince people he's not going to go back in and the energy problems are going to solve. Problem is BB needs the opposite. BB's election comes before the midterms. BB needs the Israeli public terrified so that they say you know what we we got to stick with the strong man because everybody's trying to wipe us out. And so BB wants him

to launch an attack before the Israeli elections so there's a rally around the flag effect and BB can hold power because otherwise he goes to prison. It's not just he loses the election. BB goes to prison if he loses this election. So that's your biggest risk of escalation is BB's election, not Trump's election. Yeah, I think that makes sense because his basically [clears throat] looking at what Donald Trump is doing recently

in the last 10 days, you see what what has happened in the United Kingdom. Then then with the fly Dubai airplane from Dubai to Tel Aiv, that case of plumber saving everybody on that plane and withdrawing the B1 bombers from the United Kingdom. Iran is attacking yesterday and the day before Donald Trump is talking about Iran attacking California, Los Angeles, and San Diego. I mean, it's it's the he goes back and

forth on a given day to what rationale he thinks might work to ameliate the losses that are incoming for the election. And that's where all the foreign announcements, domestic announcements, uh, come into play. But 8 minutesthe counter to that, the counterweight to that is Israel and BB needing escalation before the elections. So that's the factor before the elections. After the elections, his capacity for movement is going to be very limited if

he loses the Senate like I think he will, loses the House like I think he will. And not just loses them, but loses them by big margins. So, when I was talking to some Wall Street guys earlier this week where I picked up that is gold, um I laid out that I think there's a very substantial chance that the Senate is 55 or more seats Democratic and the House is 240 or

more seats Democratic. And how that changes is it means Chuck Schumer is probably not the future majority leader. It means Hakee Jeff is probably not the future speaker. And that means that Israel doesn't have the same degree of political cover in the House in the Senate. And that means that Trump doesn't is deeply exposed. It's one thing to have a Senate that's 51 52 seats Democratic. That's a Senate that's not likely

to convict him after an impeachment. A Senate that's 55, 56, 57. Then all of a sudden, two reasons why that increases his removal risk. One reason is just the votes. There's more votes there for removal. But the second is the Republicans will say this was a disaster. This is all because of Trump and they they all want to play Brutus anyway. And so they'll be much more eager to throw him to

the wolves and say it's not because we we did a stupid war. It's not because we broke our promises. It's because Donald Trump was never part of the political class. We let this guy into the club and we never should have. That will be their excuse. And they'll be doubly eager to knife him and knife him quicker. And what that means is his political capital will be very diminished. He'll be fighting

for his political life. And in that context, a stupid, dumb, unpopular war, continuing it, extending it, escalating it is not in his best political interest. You can't rule it out, though, because I [clears throat] mean, even be the up there on Wall Street, they're losing confidence even in Besset. And Besset had a good reputation on Wall Street. Came up under drunken Miller, came up under George Soros. I that's why I call

him Soros Scotty. [snorts] the um which apparently doesn't sit well with some people in his staff. That's another story for another day. Uh and so but they are saying they don't think he knows what he's doing that they think he's just operating like Trump off the seat of his pants just trying to please Trump. There's no coherent strategy as the interest rates keep going up and up and up at a time

when our debt is going up and up and up. This is like a double whammy that the Iran war has brought about. And the and the strongest correlation for likely causation with both diesel prices and jet fuel prices and gas prices and inflation and cost of living in general and the interest rates is the Iran war. Before the Iran war, interest rates are going down. After it, they be going [clears throat]

up. And clearly the bond market doesn't believe Trump because every time he says, "I have complete control of this trade. We're getting 100% out." Like he said in that tweet, total control, put in all caps. Well, then why is it that the bond market doesn't believe you, Mr. President? Why do the B because it's because of their belief that this is going to be a yearslong problem out of the straight that

the interest rates not only in the US but in France, in Germany, in Japan. Japan had some of the highest rate interest rates they've ever had. So the glo and skoros Scotty's efforts to solve the problem to stick his finger in the dam ain't working. And so you have while you have immediate economic political problems, you have broader economic problems. And this is while AI is having to borrow more and more

for its capex because it can't turn a profit in its businesses, which means it has to go into the debt markets. But those debt markets are heavily based on where the 10, 20, and 30year yield is. And what does that mean? It means it's getting too expensive for them to borrow, which means AI may go belly up. Chapter 3: Israel's election risks 12 minutesSo he's got compounding economic problems the longer this

conflict goes on that no amount of truth post can solve. Do you think that uh Robert with what Donald Trump is trying to do let's assume this propaganda operation with everything they're trying to help Benjamin Net in Israel is that going to change the thing in Israel? Do you see in Israel something happening in favor of Benjamin now out of assuming the worst case scenario in my opinion which would be getting

back to war and no one would benefit from that but that's the worst case scenario let's put it this way how is that going to help if if that happens how is that going to change the situation in Israel for Benjamin Edm it's from BB's perspective it's his only chance because right now if the if things are calm in the buildup to the election. BB loses and may lose badly because of

the accumulation of recrimination over why there was such a security lapse on October 7th. All the corruption that he's managed to dodge accountability for this whole whole term of his uh uh latest term of being prime minister. the uh underlying resentment that Orthodox Jews get to avoid uh getting called back up and military service while everybody else's family keeps getting dragged back in as these conflicts keep escalating in more and more

places and uh combined with Lud's always been a minority party in Israel anyway. So you combine those issues and they have a plausible alternative and a former IDF general who has a more moderate tone and personality uh but can unite the Israeli left. And so the that's the the political situation. The only way he wins is to take chances to have big gambles. And the only way that happens is to scare

the Israeli public into saying golly g we need we need that strong tough guy there. We can't we 14 minutescan't change right now because too much of the world wants to take us out. And that's where terrorist events, false flag events, risks goes way way up. And he would love for the Iran war to kick back off before the election cuz then he could go right to the Israeli public and say,

"Do you really want to change right now? I'm the guy that's the Trump whisperer. Nobody else is. Do you really want to be abandoned as right right where the war with Iran is back on full scale?" That's what he needs because if he for him this election is existential. It's not just political. He loses this. He doesn't have his immunity for trial. Has to serve his trial and likely is convicted. His

health is deteriorating. He and his wife both go to prison for likely three to four years. He may not even survive the prison. So for him, this is an absolutely existential election because the president has refused to pardon him. That's what Trump has been begging the president to do to remove this risk from BB's calculus. But it's the president's refused to do it even at Trump's request. So that means that BB

needs either false flags or something to blow up before election day because if it doesn't, chances are very high according to prediction markets and others that observe it that he loses. There are two questions, two sides maybe two aspects of what's going on in Saudi Arabia between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. One side says that Donald Trump can force MBS into some sort of negotiations with Yemenes to resolve the issue instead of

fighting because we know so far it doesn't seem that Saudi Arabia would be able with tremendous help they're getting from each and everybody in the region and outside of the region. the air defense, France, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Pakistan, the United States, they had Israel helping them. But the problem is that they cannot they cannot intercept all those missiles coming from Yemen. They can hit the oil facilities in this in the

eastern part, western part, the east west pipeline. So why is Donald Trump not trying to convince NBS to talk? Is bec is that because a weakened Saudi Arabia would benefit Benjamin Net in Israel? You know the that's a good question. Trump encouraged MBS initially to restart up the war with the Houthis. the and so that's part of the reason is he encouraged him but doesn't want responsibility for how it's gone south

and sideways. The second part is they have convinced themselves much like they do with Ukraine, much like they do with the strait that the Saudis can win this. I don't know where this came, but the last several weeks they're convinced that a major Saudi attack can win the battle with the hoodies and thereby take another chip off the uh another uh tool off the keyboard for uh for Iran. And that's apparently

where the logic is at the moment. The the realization that the house of Assad could collapse under all of this. Uh that even Israel could collapse under all of this. uh you know a specialized unit, the CIA that does alternative interpretations to counter, you know, institutional narratives said that Israel is at serious risk of imploding into its own internal civil war because if they don't get BB out, that portion of the

population is going to think they're never going to get the BBs of the world out and that they're so deeply dissatisfied with the progress of where the country is going and see it in some places as a betrayal of the original objectives of Israel. You go back to Bengavarian and others talking about we have to stay within our borders, that portion of the Israeli population. Then you could have, you know, dissolution

of the nation of Israel. Uh you could have uh you in all of these countries, you could have a rebirth of the Arab Spring, but this time the Arab Spring reached the Gulf monarchies, reach uh Qatar, reach the UAE, reach Dubai, reach uh Riyad, reach uh Kuwait, reach Bahrain. And then of course these are areas that Iranian Shia militias could come down and take from Iraq with the help of Iran. Be

easy to take Kuwait Bahrain uh for example. And what are we going to do? Are we going to send in troops? You know, we're not in that position to do that anymore. So that analysis is being done by people within the administration, but it's not what Trump is paying attention to. Trump just convinces himself at any time. It's either not his problem if it goes sideways. It's somebody else's problem. even if

he started the problem the uh or he convinces himself it won't be a problem because that the our side will prevail. He does this often on Ukraine and Russia convinces himself at various times that Ukraine's going to win that war and that that's because rat boy tells him that from the CIA [clears throat] but it's still some of the dumbest thought process on the planet. But that's what happens when you have

a guy who thinks that all the oil and gas traffic is totally normal coming out of the straight of Hermuz. And I'll give him credit. They really weren't those tanker groups uh Kepler and others who have to depend upon access to satellites and technology from US military contractors to know what's actually coming out. And they put the squeeze on them. Said you're going to say everything's coming out. The uh when they

all know everything ain't coming out. Otherwise, we wouldn't be emptying our strategic reserves as we're talking. But we are as the whole western world is, as most of the world is. So, uh, he he can't fix his problems by bsing his way through it. But he can't con he but it's hard to convince him on a daily basis that he has to accept anything that looks like a loss because Gang is

Khan wouldn't admit a loss. And since Donald Trump wants to be gang con, we're we're stuck with a guy who would rather pretend he's winning than acknowledge he's losing, even if [clears throat] acknowledging he's losing would mitigate the losses. Today he said that 28 million barrels, you know, [clears throat] passed through this rate of veros in the last . It's just just do you think let's assume Russia releases 300,000 tons of

diesel immediately today tomorrow which I don't know we cannot confirm that as I said because the ban goes till the end to the end of this month and we we still don't know if Russia would release it tomorrow you know tonight but how is that going to change the situation for Donald Trump inside the United States. It's going to be a temporary relief somehow for what's going on. Yeah. Really, it's just

a narrative. So, he's like, "Hey, the problem's just about to be solved. Just about to be solved. Everybody go. [cough] [clears throat] That's the goal." And so, his he's been a master manipulator of narrative his whole life in business, politics, celebrity, TV. The problem is you get to a point where nobody believes you anymore. And that's the point he's at. He doesn't understand like when he promised everybody five grand if they

vote Republican uh in in November the the public reacted negatively not because the public suddenly doesn't want money in their in their mailbox but because they're like that's all this guy does is lie and it makes him matter and angrier rather than resolve their concerns and that's what he doesn't understand. When you keep crying wolf over and over again and the wolf isn't there, people start to get agitated at you. And

so then when you remind them that's who you are, it actually hurts you. Like right now on the campaign trail, there's a bunch of Republicans that don't want him on the campaign trail because the first for the first time in Trump's political history, he's a net negative that a lot of his core it's his core original core base that's so enraged at him that every time they see him, it reminds them

to get out and vote against Republicans. And that's the but he he won't acknowledge that. He won't admit that. So he's going to keep trying to think I can create my own reality. I can create my own reality. And if I create it large, you know, loud enough and large enough, I'll get enough buy in that I'll survive the political midterms. Uh it's not going to work. Chapter 4: Post-midterm policy shifts

Yeah. Robert, when let's assume that the the change is happening in the United States. You mentioned Democrats getting some sort of leverage after the midterm elections and maybe Hakee Jeff and you know Chuck Schumer being removed from their position which is so important. They're they're the leader of minority you know but what does that mean for Donald Trump and his ongoing conflict in the West Asia? How is that going to change

the policies in that [clears throat] region? It two big effects. One is the Israel support on the Democratic side will be gone in terms of the leadership because Schumer could shut stuff down. Jeff could shut stuff down if they are not the leaders of their respective houses of Congress. The people who are likely to replace them are people who see beating up on Israel as a political winner and beating up on

the Iran war as a political winner. Senator Kelly has already expressed this from Arizona. He said the very first thing Democrats are going to do is to completely defund everything connected to the Mid Eastern Wars. Everything. So there'd be no money. So he could try to illegally spend money, but then that's just more counts of impeachment against him and easily proven counts of impeachment against him. So the that's so that will

be the the political axis in which they walk. And if they get enough margin in the House and the Senate, Schumer won't be majority leader precisely because of this issue. And Jeff won't be speaker precisely because of this issue unless they capitulate in reverse course. I can't see Schumer ever doing that. I could see Jeff doing that because man doesn't have much in terms of principles. So the but that's his biggest

hurdle is that they cut off all funding. Second hurdle investigations. So they're going to put on blast. Why did that little girl school get hit? Who knew what coming in? It's already been leaked out of the Hebrew press that the Israeli [clears throat] military told BB that the Iranian regime won't wouldn't collapse at all. Iranian government wouldn't collapse. We now know Tulsi Gabbard told him that. We now know J Vice President

Vance told him that. I said so at the time, but now it's public information. The We know that he's briefly uh repeatedly brought up nuclear weapons. They're going to put everybody under oath. They're going to put Tulsi Gavin under oath. They're going to put Amaros Fox under oath. They're going to put Michael Anton under oath. They're going to put uh they probably can't subpoena the vice president, but other people around them

they could bring in. And what they're going to show is not only did Hegdiff, they're going to bring in the generals that Hegdev fired wrongfully. So they'll just do investigations into how the war was prosecuted and what lies were told to push it. And [clears throat] that will become a second layer of vulnerability to the president. And then the third will be the actual investigations and impeachment proceedings themselves, which they may

put on an accelerated timetable. They're planning on first impeaching and removing Hegdath. Uh, so Heg's death is is DOA, so he's probably got to leave the Secretary of War position before the Democrats take over the House and the Senate in January of 2027. That brings in Elbridge KBY. He's the most likely successor. KBY was a complete critic of the war. So, and he's been a complete critic of the war all the

way through, but he's been marginalized by Heg's death. if he gets to take over, he'll get honest information to the president and discourage and deter any further escalation of any kind. He helped draft the national security statement and the national defense strategy with Mike Lanton and Vice President Vance's office, which said as his paramount objective, get out of Middle Eastern conflicts. Second paramount objective, reproach with Russia. [snorts] So if he's back

in charge, he'll do everything possible to do that. That's why Msad was spying on him so aggressively. They know he's a critic of the war. So internally, he'll have more people saying, "You got to get out, Mr. President." Externally, he'll have multiple pressure points in cutting off the funding, investigations as to how all these things happened that went awall in the war and the impeachments that will further diminish his political capital,

but also motivate him to get him the heck out. And [clears throat] by that point, BB Netanyahu may have lost and Israel may be back to a more let's not let's not risk our whole country's future on a war with Iran uh mindset, which I think is where that general is likely to lead if he gets into majority power. They'll probably have to create a coalition with the Arab parties even though

they don't want to. If they want a manageable coalition, so how the vote breaks down will also be very important in Israel. But if they do, then you don't have, you know, BB worm tonging Trump in his ear about how he's got to go to war and the LUD party loses its uh control over the Israeli government anyway. So that's all of the restraints on top of the economic restraints and the

military restraints that are already present in the region. Yeah, I think BB the removal of BB or if he's not elected in Israel, do you think that we know that there is not that much of difference between BB and the opposite party, but when it comes to the United States, the way BB has been manipulating for decades the political system in the United States, you know, he knows the language, he knows

how to manipulate that. How is that going to change the the situation between the two countries, which is so important? It means even if Israel's new leadership, [laughter] [clears throat] excuse me, has the same hardline position, they're not going to have the political influence that BB had. BBE was unique. No politician other than BB has had the worm tongue-like effect on US politics that BB has had. And other Israeli leaders have

come and gone, and they've mostly been forgotten, not well remembered. You could say, you know, back with Carter that was a different dynamic maybe then back to the 40s, but that's about it. So BB was very unique in being able to manipulate US public opinion and the Israel lo not only losing him, but he immediately goes to trial and most of America still doesn't know he's supposed to be facing criminal prosecution.

But all of a sudden that's in the news every day. Now, that'll be counterbalanced by Barry Weiss at CBS doing everything she can and Larry Ellison through his control of CBS and CNN doing everything they can because that deal is likely to go through very soon. Then, uh, but the practical political skill set that is now unavailable to US politicians will have a definite negative impact on the Israel lobby in the

US. Won't destroy the Israel lobby, but it will put them back a step. the and and similar with like Miriam Adlesen and others and then Larry Ellison that's the other problem with the impeachments and investigations they're going to put several of these people right in the spotlight. So Miriam Adlesen is going to be put in the spotlight but a big one that's going to be put in the spotlight is Larry Ellison

uh because of his media control now that he's added that to Oracle and AI and his Israeli ties and he is neck deep in a bunch of corruption scandals. Basically, he put people on payroll to make sure the antitrust division of the Justice Department didn't block all of these mergers for his son's businesses. And by putting him on his payroll rather than his son's payroll, the son didn't have to disclose that

they were secret lobbyists to undermine any attack on these mergers. Well, that's probably a federal crime. And that means Larry Ellison is guilty of a conspiracy to commit a major federal crime impacting hundreds of billions of dollars, trillions of dollars of US business and industry. And that's the kind of thing that they get to combine Trump corruption, a key Trump donor corruption with US policy. But who does that impact? It impacts

the Israel lobby because Larry Ellison's one of their biggest media advocates here in the US. He just reverses the IDF. He said so publicly. So all of these things are coming in such a path. It's why they tried to force a vote to merge the US and the uh Israel in its uh the very infrastructure of our military procurement and intelligence [clears throat] procurement because they know this is coming uh or

that there's a substantial risk of it coming. But I think all of these things push in the direction that the probability of escalation is low post midterms depending on what the midterms result is. But if the midterms result looks like what I think it does and PB loses in Israel, the political capital to continue this conflict or to escalate this conflict is going to be near non-existent. And then your only risk

is going to be the mental instability and decision-making erraticism of uh Gangaskhan Donald Trump. there. I assume you know the midterm election you've mentioned how is that going to change if Democrats win but Chapter 5: Israel as a political pariah assume what's going on in Israel basically what they got with Donald Trump the attack on Iran in the West Asia this is the maximum they can get you know and Donald Trump

delivered that to Benjamin Niel and here is the question for those Israelis inside Israel when they're looking after the current situation How do they see the future? Because we know whoever wins in 20, you know, the next president of the United, it's going to be Republican JD Vance or, you know, they say Marco Rubio or Democrat. They're not going to be the same way that Donald Trump has been so far. It's

going to be totally different. What What is your understanding of that? So yeah, I wrote a piece uh on a Substack, the Barnes brief, that basically laid out why Israel was is now a political pariah in the United States and is likely to stay one be for the next generation or two. And part of it reflects that Israel uniquely positioned itself after the Holocaust and then with the relig and then during

the cold war and then with the rise of evangelical Christian politics in America. Those three events allowed Israel to build political alliances in the United States that provided a degree of protection and immunity from criticism of the USIsrael relationship. But that all three of those are now mostly faded or gone. Cold War is over. The Holocaust is long back in memory. And that all you have left is the Evangelical Christian Coalition.

And even that was based on one generation of evangelical Christians. It was older boomers. uh millennials don't agree with it that are evangelical. Zoomer evangelicals don't agree with it. Gen X evangelicals don't agree with it. So they don't think there should be any special deference to Israel at any level. Uh and so what that means is Israel support is quite literally dying off. There's also a split within the Jewish community which

isn't that big in the US anyway about 4% of the general electorate 3 to 4%. But the younger Jewish voters see Israel as a pariah. When I was in New York, there was a bunch of girls uh were doing a birthday party, probably graduated from college maybe a couple years ago, very sex in the city, New York City style kind of lifestyle. And they didn't talk about politics at all except once.

One of the girls said, she explained that what coming of age meant in the modern young people generation. She said, "Our friend here didn't understand Israel is evil incarnate. Now she does." That was seen as the coming of age sign. something that's it's it's like a filter. The if you're with Israel, you're against me. If you're with Israel, you're against America. If you're with Israel, you're against human rights. If you're with

Israel, you're for war. If you're with Israel, you want to waste my money. If you're with Israel, you're corrupt. It's a filter. Whether it's right or wrong, doesn't matter. That's what people believe. Everybody 50 and younger. And so, as these boomers die off, quite literally, Israel has no political protection amongst the voters, and they can spend as much money as they want, like they're doing in this election. But what happens when

they outspend Democrats sometimes by 2 to1 or 3 to one and still lose for House seats, for Senate seats, for governorships? All of a sudden that money, it can buy you a primary in Eastern Kentucky when you still have a bunch of boomer evangelicals that are the only people who vote like the case against Thomas Massie, but it doesn't buy you a general election. And they're about to find that out in

lifetime. I mean, when Mdani won the mayor mayorship of the most Jewish city in the world outside of Israel, it hould have been a red flag to everybody. The guy who wants to drag BB and deport him and extradite him to the International Criminal Court, which Rubio is back sanctioning all over again. The I guess today apparently, even though a federal judge said what they've done already is unconstitutional, but that's another

story for another day. Politically, Israel is losing political capital at a rapid rate in the US. Not only are they diminished globally in their global public opinion, very few allies anywhere in the world, but in the US, they don't have the political support anymore. So, they have the donor class and but the donor class is about to find out all the money in the world can't buy you love when you've antagonized

as many people as they've antagonized in the United States. So you when you lo started to lose the Alex [clears throat] Joneses and Tucker Carlson's and those people of the world people that would be willing to defend Israel on the on the public stage no longer are are strong critics of it that was a sign that your political future was was doomed and it is that's why Israel's best hope uh throughout

all of US public opinion whenever Israel is perceived as the bully Americans didn't like it and so they opposed giving aid to Israel during the uh Egypt war. They opposed giving aid to Israel at the beginning of the founding of the country opposed giving aid to Israel during the 1980s. Supported withdrawal from Lebanon of Israel in the early 1980s and that's when they had the Holocaust, the Cold War and evangelicals on

their side. Now they've got none of that really left on their side. A little bit of older evangelicals and that's it. And they're doing things that are even worse politically in the court of public opinion than any of those things were. you know, that, you know, teaching dogs to rape inmates and uh the going out and taking that they killed Americans in the West Bank. Uh [clears throat] creating fake cases. They

they pretended that there was an American that Trump got released from Hamas. Turned out the person wasn't American at all, not applying to be an American, but wasn't an American. Those are the kind of lies and they've had to tell to justify a lot 37 minutesof what most people around the world see as morally horrific conduct. And then if you just look at it politically p people like JD Vance and people

like Richard Barers uh people's bundit daily who has a book out called burn it all down great book on where politics is going in America. One of the issues is Israel and points out that the the young conservatives see Israel is destroying the Trump 2024 coalition. They will never forgive the Israel lobby for that. And so Israel is in deep deep trouble. But how many people in Israel recognize that or the

donor class recognize that? That's probably a shocker waiting to come the Israeli elections and the US elections within a month. Do you do you see something happening? Because basically when you go when you when you look at the way that Israel sees what's going on in the United States, they basically believe that katar money is changing the public opinion in the United States. is the Qatari influence the influence of these GCC

some of it basically because they mentioned Napali Bennett mentioned Qatar over and over he says that these people are the worst enemy they have we have and but they don't want to see the deep roots of what's going on in inside the United States why why is that do you think they're somehow looking at the United States just at the surface office they don't want to get deeper to understand how deep

is the problem with the case of Israel or they're basically their understanding is this way they they they can't come to terms with the idea that it's their policies that are the problem that so Richard Bareris did polling for several groups connected to the Israel lobby and said here's why you're becoming very unpopular here's why you're likely to become more unpopular and what you need to do is change policy change quit

being bully Israel and be protective defensive Israel. Uh the so get out of Lebanon, get out of the West Bank, get out of Gaza, get out of Syria, get out of Iran, quit prop, you know, promoting war everywhere. Quit uh pushing for the cover up of the Epstein files and corruption scandals just because there's Israeli implications. Instead, they saw his polling and they're like, "Ah, we need to propagandize better." And he

was like, "That's not my point. My my point is you can't propagandize your way out of this problem. Your policy is the problem. Hitler running a bunch of ads saying he's really a sweetheart and loves all the Jews wasn't going to work. [cough] [clears throat] The same is true of the Israel. Pretending that they're not who they are and are doing what they're doing. Uh [clears throat] is is the is the

problem is you know compounds the problem and the they just won't recognize because that would require they acknowledge and admit that their policies are the problem. And for them that's not possible. Do you see with what's going on inside the United States, do you because since the, you know, we had Reagan, we had Bush Senior, they were somehow they were so strong when it came to Israel. You know, the way they

said it no to Israel, they knew how to say no to Israel. But since then, you know, we have Clinton, we have, you know, Obama, then Biden, Trump. None of them was as strong as Reagan or W. Bush, George W. Bush senior, Bush Senior was. How do are we going to get back not only getting radical against Israel, getting back to somehow to Bush Senior or to Reagan? they knew how to

communicate better with Israel to force them into some sort of positions or force them out of Lebanon for example which was one of the cases. How how do you see are we getting back to those sort of candidates or presidents inside the United States that would experience the leverage on Israel? when theou was being uh after it had been signed and when Trump was honoring it, you saw Vance making that express

pitch everywhere that saying look we need to treat Israel as an ally an ally not a special ally need to uh recognize America interest always come first and need to hem in Israel when it exceeds what's in the US interest for it to behave and that's the Reagan policy that's the poppy bush policy now both of them grew up with an intelligence and defense apparatus from the say case of Poppy Bush

with the old aristocratic Yale, Harvard, Ivy League types from the 30s and 40s, your Kermit, Roosevelts, etc. who are more Arabist than they were uh pro-Israel. Many of them were skeptical of Israel. Now, many of them were, you know, maybe uh let's just say they didn't have the kindest things to say about people that were Jewish in general. So, uh, the Ivy League was very anti-Semitic in the 20s and 30s for

a lot of these kids went through the schools because they didn't want Jewish kids competing with them for their spots and the Wasp being white Anglo-Saxon Protestant from upper middle class backgrounds throughout predominantly the northeastern part of the country. So, that was part of what was a restraining factor uh from within the intelligence community in the defense industry. And what Israel, the Israel lobby did very very well is begin to promote

people from the 70s forward slowly up and said, "We could protect you. will get you into positions of power in the State Department bureaucracy and the intelligence apparatus and the Pentagon apparatus. People like Admiral Cooper thinks he owes his position to the Israel lobby. That's a problem. That never should have happened. But that's how they've infiltrated slowly, steadily into replacing the kind of people who, you know, people like Weinberger and others

would would, you know, would tell Reagan, no way we should be in in Lebanon. That that's totally their problem. We need to get the heck out of there. and then Reagan would then act on it. So, they had better advice coming from a lot of those places. But even that within the Israel lobby is fading because the they've kind of reached their peak of that power and it's just led to such

disastrous policy after disastrous policy that being affiliated or associated with it is reason to purge that person rather than to recommend that person for future positions of power, prominence. So, I think that we will get back on the Democratic side. Whoever runs as the most anti-Israel control, you could put it that way, candidate will win the next Democratic presidential nomination. And and the Republican side, whether they're even a vi any future

[clears throat] viable Republican candidate, will do will put Israel back in a box the way Reagan did and the way Poppy Bush did, the way Jimmy Carter did. So unless the uh unless and until that happens, then those people are not going to be elected president because that's where the American people are. We have to return back to that geopolitical realism of recognizing what Israel is and what it is not. And

I think this was the last harrah for Israel. And the irony is the greater Israel project is what will it it just its pursuit of it [clears throat] is what's going to bring the whole thing tumbling down on top of their heads and lead to BB Netanyahu not being some you know revered hero with statutes across Tel Aviv but sitting in a prison somewhere in Israel. I think the major issue Robert

you mentioned that the key is the greater Israel agenda. That's part of the plan. that's part of the occupation in Syria, in Lebanon, in Gaza, in the West Bank, you know, and do you think that could a president in the United States could somehow make a better connection with the GCC countries, with the countries in the West Asia in order to somehow force Israel to at least to to to I don't

know how we can define that in the political system of Israel because they don't have the the [snorts] parliament, you know, they have the canet, they don't have the constitution and it's so fluid everything in Israel. You know, they can decide tomorrow we're going to do this, the day after, tomorrow is going to be different. But how are they going to be able altogether to put pressure on the political system in

Israel to change that? I think just by cutting off the uh aid and not engaging in their wars for them. Without that, Israel has to hem in because Israel needs our weapons. Israel needs our intelligence. Israel needs our soldiers to engage in any kind of extensive war with any major country in the region. Number one, and number two, they need our weapons to defend themselves from places like Iran or even increasingly

Hezbollah. So I think that the practical limitations of what Israel can do without massive US backing is just by withdrawing that massive US backing, we can put them back in a box. The way Reagan did relatively easily and Reagan said, "You're coming out." And day or two later, they were out. The poppy Bush was similarly restrained at what they would uh allow the them to pursue on on behalf of their own

agenda. So I just don't see so I I don't see Israel being able to be a threat to the region without US protection and patronage. We remove that protection and patronage. Israel has to go back to being reasonable. And I think there are people within Israel who want to go back to being more reasonable because it's it's not in Israel's best interest what they're pursuing. A greater Israel project is a suicide

pact. It's not a plan of conquering it. You're not going to be Alexander the Great or any King David or King Solomon or any of that. you you're inviting uh self-destruction and implosion as well as external attack against countries that are just more powerful than you, have broader populations than you, uh and that have the religious fervor to be able to follow through if if you act too badly in the region.

So I think practically speaking uh that's what needs to happen is the US withdraw its patronage or condition that patronage and protection on Israel staying inside its own borders and quit trying to cause war all around the region and quit pretending it's greater Israel. Thank you so much Robert for being with us today. I know that you were sick and hope you get better soon and great pleasure as always Robert. Absolutely.

Glad to be here. Glad. Bye-bye.

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Can Washington Save The Saudi Dictatorship?
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